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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

This is a discussion on Forex News Analysis by LiteForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; liteForex USD/CHF: dollar is under pressure Current trend During the trading session on Tuesday, October, 10, the US dollar is ...

          
   
  1. #461
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    liteForex USD/CHF: dollar is under pressure

    Current trend

    During the trading session on Tuesday, October, 10, the US dollar is strongly going down against Swiss franc and stepped away from the local highs, renewed in the end of the last week. The instrument is falling due to the weak positions of the US currency against the decrease of the US bonds’ yield and anticipation of publication of FOMC Minutes on October, 11. In addition, the traders reacted negatively to the news that Trump’s Administration postponed the implementation of the tax reformation, which had been announced recently.
    On the other hand, franc is supported by the strong employment market data publications: the unemployment level in Switzerland decreased from 3.2% to 3.1% in September, which was better than the analysts expected.


    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are moderately growing. The price range is insignificantly narrowing, reflecting the flat trading mood of the recent days. It’s better to use the channel trading strategy.
    MACD is going down, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to keep opened short positions in the short term, but not to open new ones before additional signals appear.
    Stochastic is going down, being in the center of its working area. The indicator’s readings don’t contradict with the development of the “bearish” dynamics in the short or very short term.
    Resistance levels: 0.9767, 0.9800, 0.9834.
    Support levels: 0.9732, 0.9707, 0.9677, 0.9650.


    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.9800. Take profit is 0.9850–0.9880. Stop loss is 0.9760. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
    The alternative is the return of the strong “bearish” trend with the breakdown of the level of 0.9732. The targets will be at the levels of 0.9677 or 0.9650. Stop loss is 0.9767. Implementation period: 2-3 days.



  2. #462
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    liteForex GBP/USD: pound is growing

    Current trend

    British currency is moderately growing against the US dollar, renewing the weekly highs due to the increasing pressure on USD. The negative dynamics was supported by FOMC Minutes publication, which decreased the market’s belief in the interest rate rise in the end of 2017.
    After the report publication the investors focused on Friday’s US September consumer inflation data. In addition, after the key releases publication, the some Fed’s officials will present their renewed forecasts of the regulators’’ monetary policy development.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are moderately falling. The price range is narrowing actively, reflecting the change of the trend in the short term. The breakout of the resistance levels around the middle line of the instrument can be significant.
    MACD has reversed into growing, forming a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). The indicator is trying to consolidate above the zero line. It’s better to keep current opened long positions and open new ones in the short or very short term.

    Stochastic is moving upwards, but is reaching its highs, which reflects that the instrument is overbought in the short term, and the flay dynamics can appear in the end of the week.

    Resistance levels: 1.3290, 1.3327, 1.3400, 1.3454.
    Support levels: 1.3218, 1.3148, 1.3110, 1.3042.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3290 with the targets at 1.3400–1.3450. Stop loss is 1.3218. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
    If the instrument meet a significant resistance around the levels of 1.3290–1.3300, in the end of the week the correctional fall can develop with the rebound to the level of 1.3300. Take profit is 1.3100. Stop loss is 1.3350. Implementation period: 2 days.


  3. #463
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    liteForex EUR/USD: mixed dynamics in the end of the week

    Current trend

    During the trading session on Thursday, October, 12, European currency fell against the US dollar, stepping back from the maximum of September, 25. The downward trend is due to the positive US Initial Jobless Claims data and Producer Price Index, which let the investors hope that Friday’s Consumer Price Index will be strong.
    On October, 6, the Initial Jobless Claims indicator fell 258K to 243K, while the analysts expected the value of 251K. The Consumer Price Index grew by 0.4% MoM and 2.2% YoY in September, which exceeds the analysts’ expectations of +0.2% MoM and +2.0% YoY.

    On Friday, October, at 14:30 (GMT+2) the block of key September statistic of retail sales and consumer inflation will be published in the USA. After FOMC Minutes, published this week earlier, the investors are focused on the price dynamics, as it can affect Fed’s decision upon the interest rate rise.


    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart Bollinger Bands’ dynamics is flat. The price range is not widening, being quite narrow for the current volatility level. It’s better to use channel trading strategy.

    MACD is growing, keeping quite strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line) and trying to consolidate above the zero line. It’s possible to keep some of the current long positions in the short term, but not to open new ones.

    Stochastic has crossed the level of 80 and reversed into flat, reacting to the “bearish” dynamics on Thursday, October, 12. The indicator reflects that the correctional fall is possible in the short term.
    Resistance levels: 1.1860, 1.1878, 1.1909, 1.1950.
    Support levels: 1.1820, 1.1800, 1.1755, 1.1730.


    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1860–1.1878 with the target at 1.1950. Stop loss is 1.1820–1.1830. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
    The correctional dynamics development and the breakdown of the levels 1.1820–1.1800 can be the signal to open short positions with the target at 1.1700. Stop loss is 1.1850. Implementation period: 2-3 days.



  4. #464
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    liteForex USD/CAD: the pair is trading in different directions

    Current trend

    Last Friday the pair’s dynamics was controversial after the US consumer inflation and retail sales data publications, and now the US dollar is growing insignificantly against Canadian currency.
    The Friday’s US data weren’t’ disappointing, but the investors are lesser and lesser believing in another Fed’s interest rate rise this year. However, after the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index publication part of the optimistic moods restored. In October the index grew to the record level of 101.1 points from 95.1 points in September, while analysts expected the growth to 95.0 points.
    During the morning session on October, 16, the pair is in correction, waiting for new signals. In particular, the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey will be released at 16:30 (GMT+2).

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into flat. The price range has narrowed to the minimum, reflecting the controversial trading dynamics of the recent days. It’s better to wait until new trading signal appear.
    MACD is decreasing, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Taking into the consideration the recent flat dynamics, the signal is not worth believing, but the current short positions in the short term can be kept for some time.
    Stochastic is reversing upwards near the level of 20, which is conditional border of the oversold area. The indicator’s readings reflect the possibility of correctional growth development in the short or very short term.
    Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2537, 1.2597.
    Support levels: 1.2447, 1.2414, 1.2300, 1.2238.

    Trading tips

    Open long positions after the breakout of the levels of 1.2500 or 1.2537 with the targets at 1.2600–1.2650. Stop loss is 1.2450–1.2470. Implementation period: 2 days.
    The reversal near the current levels and the breakdown of the levels 1.2447 or 1.2414 can be the signal to open short positions with the target at 1.2300. Stop loss is not further than 1.2500. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

  5. #465
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    liteForex GBP/USD: the pound is under pressure

    Current trend

    The British currency showed a fall against US dollar as a result of trading on Monday, October 16, moving away from local maximums updated last Friday. The reason for negative dynamics were new concerns about Brexit negotiations. Its participants failed to reach visible results despite 5 rounds of talks.
    Moreover, the pound was under pressure from expectations about the release of the data on consumer inflation from the UK and Eurozone on Tueday. The block of British statistics is due at 10:30 (GMT+2), while European data will become available at 12:00 (GMT+2). Annual consumer prices growth rate in the UK is expected to reach 3.0% in September. MoM current growth rate is likely to considerably slow down from +0.6% to +0.3%.

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger Bands in D1 chart are developing downward dynamics gradually reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is growing, preserving a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic has reversed downwards near its maximum values.
    Resistance levels: 1.3290, 1.3336, 1.3400, 1.3454.
    Support levels: 1.3218, 1.3148, 1.3118, 1.3025.

    Trading tips

    Long positions may be opened after breaking through the levels of 1.3290, 1.3300 with targets at 1.3400, 1.3450 and stop-loss at 1.3240. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
    The development of corrective dynamics with a breakdown of the level of 1.3218 may be a signal for further sales with targets at 1.3118, 1.3100 and stop-loss at 1.3270. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.


  6. #466
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    liteForex EUR/USD: trend break or the end of correction

    Current trend

    Euro continues to decrease against USD in view of growing demand for the latter. The dollar received considerable support in view of positive comments by the Fed's representatives and the head. They all view the prospects of US economy development as promising and expect to keep the targets of further monetary policy tightening.

    Moreover, the demand for USD continued to grow due to the beneficial fundamental background. During recent two trading weeks strong data on the labor market, retail sales, and main indexes were released. All these factors had a considerable impact on the rate of EUR/USD which has dropped by almost 150 points since October 12. Today the downward impulse got stronger, and the pair tested the local minimum of 1.1730 once again but failed to break through it.
    An additional catalyst for the fall of the European currency was the comments by Mario Draghi. He pointed out that to restore the Eurozone economy still needed considerable fiscal stimulation.


    Support and resistance

    European currency against USD remains in the long-term upward tendency, therefore it is too early to speak about the break of the trend. From the current level the pair may grow to the levels of 1.1785, 1.1800. In case they are broken through, the pair may return to the local maximum of October at 1.1880. An alternative scenario will be breaking through the level of 1.1730 and dropping to 1.1600, 1.1575.
    Support levels: 1.1730, 1.1715, 1.1665, 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1550, 1.1500.
    Resistance levels: 1.1775, 1.1785, 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1860, 1.1880, 1.1900, 1.1925.


    Trading tips

    In this situation it is reasonable to open long positions with target at 1.1880 and stop-loss at 1.1700. At the same time, one may open short positions below the level of 1.1715 with target at 1.1600.


  7. #467
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    liteForex AUD/USD: the pair is trading in both directions

    Current trend

    Australian dollar showed growth during the morning session on October 19, having received support from optimistic macroeconomic releases from Australia. Along with that, after the release of the data from China investors corrected a number of positions, and the instrument lost almost all of its “bullish” advantages.

    The level of unemployment in Australia in September dropped from 5.6% to 5.5% which was a pleasant surprise as investors did not wait for any changes at all. At the same time the level of employment in September grew by 19.8K after growth by 50.0K last month. Analysts expected employment to increase by 15.0K workplaces.

    The data from China showed an expected slowdown in the growth of GDP in YoY terms. In Q3 2017 GDP grew by 6.8% after increase by 6.9% in the previous period. QoQ the growth of the Chinese economy remained on the same level of +1.7%.

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger Bands in the D1 chart show flat dynamics. The price range is slightly widening from above. MACD indicator is growing preserving a moderate buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows almost no reaction to the instrument's growth attempts this week and preserves a quite stable downward direction.

    Resistance levels: 0.7873, 0.7900, 0.7937, 0.7978.
    Support levels: 0.7832, 0.7807, 0.7769, 0.7731.

    Trading tips

    Long positions may be opened after breaking out the levels of 0.7873 or 0.7900 with targets at 0.7978, 0.8000 and stop-loss at 0.7832, 0.7850. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

    Breaking down the level of 0.7807 may be a signal for further sales with targets at 0.7731, 0.7700 and stop-loss at 0.7850. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.



  8. #468
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    liteForex XAU/USD: gold is growing

    Current trend

    The price of gold grew considerably yesterday breaking three “bearish” sessions in a row and moving away from local minimums since October 9. The reason for the occurrence of “bullish” dynamics was the growth of corrective tendencies in the market that made the investors escape risks. Besides geopolitical risks, investors paid attention to the end of rally in the world stock markets that moved away from record-setting maximums.

    USD, in turn, remained under the pressure of uncertainty around the Fed, but received support after the Senate approved of the draft budget for 2018 giving Trump administration an ability to pass the tax reform.

    During the morning session on October 20 the pair is showing active “bearish” dynamics and USD is waiting for the release of the data on sales in the secondary housing market and the speech by the FOMC member Loretta Mester at 20:00 (GMT+2).

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show flat dynamics. The price range is actively narrowing from below. MACD indicator is showing uncertain dynamics near the zero mark. Stochastic has reversed horizontally near the level of 20.

    Resistance levels: 1290.67, 1298.33, 1305.65.
    Support levels: 1281.85, 1276.26, 1266.01, 1260.25.

    Trading tips

    Long positions may be opened after the breakthrough of the level of 1290.67 with target at 1305.65 and stop-loss at 1284.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

    A breakdown of the level of 1276.26 may be a signal for resuming sales in the short term with target at 1266.01 and stop-loss at 1282.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.


  9. #469
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    liteForex GBP/USD: the pair is uncertain

    Current trend

    Last week the pair dropped to 1.3180 (Murrey level [4/8]) where it currently remains. Generally, the market is uncertain before the meeting of the Bank of England scheduled for the next week. Right now the regulator is in a difficult situation: it needs to solve the problem of high inflation and at the same time deal with low salaries that push down the citizens' purchasing capacity. Investors wait for the Bank of England to increase the interest rate and are not ready to be active yet.

    Ongoing Brexit negotiations remain a negative background for the British currency. The delay causes more and more concerns among businesses in the UK. According to BBC, major British business structures including the Institute of Directors (IoD) and the Conference of British Industry (CBI) wrote a letter to Minister David Davis asking him to regulate the issues in question as quickly as possible. Otherwise the country may lose a considerable share of workplaces and investments. The process is already on: for example, Goldman Sachs started to reduce the staffing of its London representative office and to increase it in Frankfurt.

    Support and resistance

    Technically in the D1 chart the price is near the key level of 1.3180 (Murrey [4/8]). It breaks the main trading area into two halves showing market uncertainty. Indicators don't give a clear signal: the volume of MACD histogram is minor, and Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards. The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3180 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands may lead to further growth to 1.3305 (Murrey [5/8]) and1.3427 (Murrey [6/8]). Otherwise the targets of the decrease will be 1.3060 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.2940 (Murrey [2/8]).

    Support levels: 1.3060, 1.2940, 1.2817.
    Resistance levels: 1.3180, 1.3300, 1.3427.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation short positions may be opened from the level of 1.3135 with targets at 1.3060, 1.2940 and stop-loss at 1.3190. Long positions with targets at 1.3305 and 1.3427 may be opened from the level of 1.3245. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.3200.


  10. #470
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    liteForex USD/JPY: yen in under pressure or poor PMI data

    Current trend

    The pair began the week with the upward gap (to the area of 114.00) due to the strong victory of Liberal Democratic Japan party, leading by Shinzō Abe, in the parliamentary elections, which means that the ultra soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will be developing for a long time. In addition, the market is alerted that Abe plans to increase the national consuming tax from 8% to 10% to increase the social spending. The decision can harm the retail sales, as the growth of tax inevitably affects the consumer spending negatively. When the tax was increased in 2014 in the previous time, the economy entered a recession, so the investors fear the same effect will happen this time.

    During Monday the price was corrected of 113.30, but now is growing again. Yen is under pressure of poor PMI data. Instead of expected growth in October the indicator decreased from 52.9 to 52.5 points. The pair can grow, if the US Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Service PMI, which will be published today, are strong.

    Support and resistance

    Technically the price is testing the level of 113.67 (Murray [7/8]) and after the consolidation above it can grow to the levels of 114.06 (Murray [8/8]) and 114.45 (Murray [+1/8]). The indicators reflect the growth development, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Stochastic is reversing upwards near the oversold area. However if US PMI data disappoint the investors, the correction to the level of 112.50 (key Murray [4/8], lower border of Bollinger Bands) can develop.

    Resistance levels: 113.67, 114.06, 114.45, 114.85.
    Support levels: 113.28, 112.90, 112.50.

    Trading tips

    It’s better to open long positions above the level of 113.67 with the targets at 114.06, 114.45 and stop loss at 113.35.

    The consolidation of the price below the level of 113.28 or reversal around 114.06 will make short positions with the targets at 112.90 and 112.50 relevant. Stop losses are near the levels of 113.60 and 114.40 correspondingly.


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