Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

FTSE: technical analysis

FTSE, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA14, EMA65 that start turning down, but above the EMA130 and SMA200 that turned horizontally. The RSI is about to test its most recent support near the border of the oversold zone. The Composite keeps forming a Bullish divergence with the price.
FTSE, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is about to retest its longer MA from below. The Composite is falling.

Key levels
Support levels: 7290.5 (local lows), 7213.6 (May lows), 7165.0 (April gap).
Resistance levels: 7371.0 (local highs), 7438.0 (March highs), 7452.9 (local highs).

Trading tips
The price is falling along its short-term descending trendline. A breakdown of local lows would allow the fall to continue.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7290.5 with targets at 7213.6, 7165.0 and stop-loss at 7321.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7371.0 with targets at 7438.0, 7452.9 and stop-loss at 7333.1. Validity – 3-5 days.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Last week the pair tested the level of *1.1440 but is still unable to consolidate above it.
On Friday the market showed a generally positive reaction to the June data on the US labor market (the number of workplaces increased by 222K), although the unemployment rate grew by 4.4%, and the annual hourly salary remained on the level of 2.5%. Based on this data, the price corrected once again, but it is still unclear whether the fall will be serious. This will to a great extent depend on the speech by FOMC head Janet Yellen in the Congress with a report on the fiscal policy for six months. On Wednesday she will present the report to the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives, and on Thursday – to the Banking and Construction Committee of the US Senate. The market will wait for details on further monetary policy, terms, and volumes of reduction of FOMC balance, as well as the number of interest rate increases this year.

Support and resistance
Technically the key level for the “bulls” remains *1.1440. Its breakout will give open the way of growing to 1.1530 and 1.1600. Serious correction to the levels of 1.1190 (Fibo correction 23.6%), 1.1100 (crossing with Fibo fan at 38.2%) and 1.1040 (Fibo correction 38.2%) will be possible after the price consolidates below 1.1300 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. Technical indicators don't give a clear picture. Stochastic is directed upwards, but MACD histogram is calm in the positive zone. Moreover, the histogram and the chart have differences indicating possible future decrease of the price.
Support levels: 1.1310, 1.1100, 1.1040.
Resistance levels: 1.1440, 1.1530, 1.1600.

Trading tips
In this situation long positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 1.1440 with targets at *1.1530 and 1.1600 and stop-loss at 1.1400.
If the price consolidates below 1.1300 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands, short positions may be opened with targets at *1.1190 and 1.1100 and stop-loss at 1.1330.

Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
Brent oil continues to trade in the wide downward channel. The price broke through the moving average line of Bollinger Bands and is moving to June minimums at 44.80.
The market is still negative and does not believe that the balance of supply and demand will be restored soon taking into account growing oil production in the USA. Yesterday's statements by the head of OPEC Mohammed Barkindo about the reduction of oil production by over 106% by cartel members kept the price around the middle line of Bollinger Bands (47.00), but today the price started to fall again. In the evening investors are waiting for the API report on the US oil reserves. The growth of the indicator may slow down the fall of the prices.

Support and resistance
Technically the price is trying to move from the middle line of Bollinger Bands to June minimums (44.80) and further to the lower border of the channel (42.70). In case the middle line of Bollinger Bands is broken out and the price consolidates above 47.60 (Fibo correction 23.6% for the medium term trend), upward correction to the levels of 49.35 (correction 38.2%, upper line of Bollinger Bands) and 50.60 (gathering of corrections 23.6% and 50.0%) may be expected. Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. Stochastic is trying to reverse near the oversold zone, and MACD histogram is growing in the negative zone.
Support levels: 46.00, 44.80, 42.70.
Resistance levels: 47.60, 49.35, 50.60.

Trading tips
In the current situation short positions may be opened below 46.00 with targets at 44.80, 42.70 and stop-loss at 46.50.
In case the price reverses and breaks out the level of 47.60, long positions may be opened with targets at 49.35, 50.60 and stop-loss at 47.20.

WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
WTI quotes are growing after the release of initial data from API indicating that more considerable reduction of US oil reserves as expected. According to the report, during the week they reduced by 8.13 mln barrels. This helped WTI gain 2.75% and increase to the level of 46.00.
Official data from the US Department of Energy on weekly changes in commercial oil reserves are due today at 16:30 (GMT+2). If they indicate higher reduction of reserves and oil production in the USA, WTI will gain considerable support. If oil reserves reduce but the level of production remains unchanged or increases, WTI will get under pressure once again. Investors are waiting for an effect from OPEC+ agreement of the reduction of oil production, and any news about its increase in this situation may lead to the fall of oil quotes.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators show that WTI growth potential is preserved. Bollinger Bands diverge confirming the upward trend. The volumes of MACD histogram are actively growing in the positive zone. Growth may continue after the resistance level of 46.11 is broken through. If the buyers manage to consolidate above it, growth will continue to 46.85. If not, one may expect downward correction to the middle line of Bollinger Bands (44.80).
Support levels: 45.51, 44.53, 43.75.
Resistance levels: 46.11, 46.85, 47.80.

Trading tips
Buy positions may be opened above 46.11 with targets at 46.85 and stop-loss at 45.85. In case the price breaks out and consolidates above 46.85, the next target of the buyers will be 47.80.
Sell positions may be opened below 45.51 with targets at 44.53 and stop-loss at 45.80.

NZD/USD: general review

Current trend

The key event of the previous day was the speech of Janet Yellen before the US Congress. The head of FOMC pointed out positive tendencies in the US economy and stated the regulator was planning to increase interest rates before the end of the year. Yellen's comments did not lead to considerable strengthening of USD, but the pair of NZD/USD dropped without consolidating above the resistance level of 0.7350 that it has been trying to break out for two years.

Today New Zealand published the data on industrial PMI. The fall of the value from 58.5 to 56.2 basis points and the comments by the head of FOMC may lead to the reversal of the instrument today.

Friday is rich in macroeconomic data from the USA. Statistics is expected to be positive for the US currency and this will put considerable pressure on the pair.
Support and resistance

On the D1 chart the instrument moved from the resistance level of 0.7330. Bollinger Bands have corrected sideward, while the price range has slightly broadened indicating the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in thee positive zone maintaining a weak buy signal. Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone.

Support levels: 0.7285, 0.7250, 0.7210, 0.7170.
Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7370, 0.7400.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the current price with targets at 0.7275, 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7340. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7345 with target at 0.7395 and stop-loss at 0.7320. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

Forex Analytics by LiteForex. EUR/USD: Fibonacci analysis

On the H4 chart the price failed to consolidate below the level of 1.1400 (correction 23.6%) but may resume attempts in the near future. Breaking through the level of 1.1400 near the crossing with the line of the upper fan at 38.2% and the 23.6% curve may lead to further correction to the level of 1.1345 (correction 23.6%, middle line of Bollinger Bands for D1). An important level for the "bulls" is 1.1487. After consolidating above it, the pair may enter long-term growth.

On the D1 chart the price remains within the upper trend and is testing the level of 1.1470. After breaking through it, the pair may continue growing to 1.1540 and 1.1600. Otherwise it may fall to the levels of 1.1340 (middle line of Bollinger Bands and correction 38.2% for H4) and 1.1255 (correction 23.6%). Gradual growth may continue as Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards.

Main scenario

Buy positions look more preferable, but they should be opened after the price consolidates above 1.1470 with targets at 1.1540 and 1.1600. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.1420.

Alternative scenario

Sell positions may become relevant after the price consolidates below 1.1400 with targets at 1.1340, 1.1255 and stop-loss at 1.1450.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

AUD/USD: the pair has reached its limit

Current trend

In the second half of July the rate of the Australian currency against USD rapidly grew. Within several days the pair gained over 350 points having broken through a number of key resistance levels. The pair has been moving upwards almost without downward corrections which shows considerable growth in the volumes of long positions. The main catalyst of this movement was yet another negative data from the USA, FOMC comments on possible postponing of monetary policy tightening, beneficial fundamental background from Australia, and stability of RBA monetary policy.

Last week weak labor market, inflation, and retail sales releases were published in the USA. Australia responded with strong data on consumer confidence index and consumer expectations. Positive prospects and current indicators included into the RBA minutes give AUD additional support.

Support and resistance

Today the pair tested a new local maximum and a key resistance level of 0.7945 and consolidated below this point. Later on the pair is likely to move from rapid growth stage to the consolidation stage. Historical data shows that the pair is widely trading in the side range. In this situation side channel may be limited by key support and resistance levels at 0.7800 and 0.7945 respectively. In the medium term the pair may reach the level of 0.8000, but this will be followed by deep downward correction. Investors have already started to move away from long positions, and in the future it will happen more often and will become the main factor of pressure on the pair. Technical indicators continue to give a sell signal, and MACD shows the preservation of long positions.

Support levels: 0.7860, 0.7800, 0.7750, 0.7720, 0.7680, 0.7650, 0.7610, 0.7580, 0.7400, 0.7250.
Resistance levels: 0.7945, 0.7980, 0.8000, 0.8070, 0.8150.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from key resistance levels at 0.7945, 0.8000 with target at 0.7580 and short stop-loss at 0.8060.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

Along with CAD, Australian dollar has been showing the best results against USD this week. The pair AUD/USD has grown by almost 200 points from the beginning of the week and yesterday reached the level of May 2015.
US dollar that has been weakening for the second week in a row due to bad macroeconomic indicators (especially inflation and labor market) is also under pressure from the statement of FOMC Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues. Moreover, on Tuesday USD received one more major negative impulse after the Republicans and Trump administration failed to pass the health care bill that threw the President's ability to implement the reforms into question.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia published the minutes of a meeting on the fiscal policy in which the members of the regulator confirmed economic growth in the second quarter and the improvement of the situation of the labor market.
Yesterday's release from the US real estate market was positive, and USD showed minor growth remaining under pressure of the political situation. As a result, this week the pair broke through the important support level of 0.7800, 0.7900 and 0.7950, as well as 2-year maximum on the level 0.7830. Tonight's employment indicators and unemployment data from Australia were worse than outlooks which caused the pair to start correction.

Today the market is waiting for releases from the USA: industrial PMI from FRB Philadelphia that may drop by 3.6 points and initial and repeated jobless claims with expected minor decrease. All indicators are due at 14:30 (GMT+2).
The main scenario for today is the continuation of the pair's growth.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7710, 0.7750, 0.7830, 0.7900. *
Resistance levels: 0.7950, 0.8010, 0.8090, 0.8160.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.8010, 0,8090 and stop-loss at 0.7870.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7900 with targets at 0.7830, 0.7750 and stop-loss at 0.8020.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the Brent oil reached psychologically strong level of 50.00 USD per barrel. During the next hours the price went down again, but as the OPEC has difficulties due to the increasing oil production in Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, this was quite a positive signal.

Technically in the situation of uncertainty, which can last until the OPEC Meeting in St. Petersburg on July, 24, the investors consider that the level of 50.00 USD per barrel was the target level, and the rollback is due to the closing of the profitable positions. During last two weeks the oil is strongly supported by the decrease of the USA recourses, which reflects the summer growth of the demand in the USA, which is the 20% of the world oil demand.

The positive factor is the growth of the oil import into China, which General Customs Directorate reported in June. In the first half of the year Chinese oil import surpassed the USA one for the first time, making the China the leading world oil importer.

Today the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count will be published in the USA at 19:00 (GMT+2). While the oil rig number has been growing for the last 14 months, the increase has slowed in last weeks.

The investors are waiting for the OPEC meeting on July, 24, and probably won’t take any action before it, so the consolidation of the price is expected.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 48.50, 47.30, 46.70, 45.80.
Resistance levels: 50.00, 50.90, 51.50.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current price with the target at 48.50 and stop loss at 50.10.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 50.00 with the target at 50.90, stop loss is at 49.40.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Last week the AUD/USD pair was growing due to the positive Australian macroeconomical data publications and the USD weakness, caused by the political instability in the USA. On Friday the trade instrument lost around 80 points, but this fall was due to the closing of the profitable positions below the key resistance level of 0.8000. Today AUD has a high potential to grow and can break the key level of 0.8000 in the nearest future, as the positive changes in the employment market and the growth of the economical active population in Australia promise the growth of the consumer activity and the accelerating of the economical growth in the country.
Today the investors should pay attention on the PMI index in the USA. The publications are not expected to affect the pair, and the further upward trend will be developing today. The nearest key issues of the week are the RBA trimmed mean CPI and the Consumer Price Index publication in Australia.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair is growing alongside the upper Bollinger Band, reaching the key resistance level of 0.8000. The indicator is pointed upwards, as the price range is significantly widen, which can confirm the development of the upward trend. MACD histogram reached the maximum in the positive zone, keeping a buy signal. Stochastic is ready to leave the overbought area, which will be the signal to open short positions.

Support levels: 0.7910, 0.7870, 0.7810, 0.7760, 0.7725.
Resistance levels: 0.7965, 0.8000, 0.8065, 0.8090.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current price with the target at 0.8055 and stop loss at 0.7910. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7905 with the target at 0.7840 and stop loss at 0.7935. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/