Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

The USD/CAD pair is moving within the narrow range, waiting for significant fundamental or economical releases, which can determine the further dynamics. The growth of the pair slowed after significant growth in the end of the last week. The market split into two parts, one considers the strengthening of USD against CAD reflects the decrease of oil prices in the nearest future, the other believes that the pair is in the correction of the strong downward trend, and soon the pair will fall again.

Today traders should pay attention to Q2 Unit Labor Costs publication and Nonfarm Productivity statistics in the USA. In Canada Housing Starts data will be released, which reflect the strength of Canadian housing market and shows the economy state. The decrease against the previous values is expected, which can affect Canadian currency negatively.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart the pair is moving within the narrow range, formed by the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. MACD is in the positive zone, keeping a signal to open long positions.

Support levels: 1.2660, 1.2635, 1.2600, 1.2550.
Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2730, 1.2750.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1.2730 and stop loss at 1.2635. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2600 with the target at 1.2550 and stop loss at 1.2635.
Implementation period: 2-5 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

EUR/USD: the pair is decreasing in view of the upcoming inflation data

Current trend

The quotes of EUR/USD are decreasing today. Euro appeared to be under pressure of negative data on the volume of industrial output in France which reduced by 1.1% in June. Moreover, the fall of the pair was facilitated by the investors’ waiting for tomorrow’s data on CPI. The indicator is expected to grow in July from 0.0% to 0.2% MoM and from 1.6% to 1.8% YoY. The correctness of this forecast is proven by the growth of average salary in the USA in July by 0.3%. On the other hand, import prices have been decreasing since January, although the outlook for July is positive as well (the indicator is expected to grow by 0.1% after 2 months of falling). Generally, the possibility of inflation growth in the USA is quite high, but it may not reach the forecast levels.

In the absence of important economic statistics today attention may be pair do the statement by the member of the Fed, head of FRB New York William Dudley in the framework of press briefing dedicated to the issues of salary payment in the region. Geopolitics may also make corrections to the movement of the pair. According to recent data, the US Department of Defense already has a plan of a preventive strike at 20 military objects of North Korea. Further aggravation of the situation between the USA and North Korea may lead to considerable market volatility and the weakening of USD.

Support and resistance

Currently the price is testing an important support level of 1.1700 (Fibo correction 23.6%, Murrey main support level , lower line of Bollinger Bands). Breaking through it may lead to further reduction to 1.1655 and 1.1590 (Fibo correction 38.2%, Murrey level ). One may speak about growth after the consolidation of the price above the level of 1.1755 (Fibo correction 38.2% for the long-term trend, middle line of Bollinger Bands). In this case the price may grow to 2-week maximums at 1.1890.

Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1590, 1.1500.
Resistance levels: 1.1755, 1.1825, 1.1890.

Trading tips

In the current situation short positions should be opened after the price consolidates below 1.1700 with targets at 1.1655 and 1.1590. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.1740.

Long positions will become relevant after the breakout of the level of 1.1755 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The targets will be at 1.1825 and 1.1890. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.1710.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

XAU/USD is strengthening due to the poor macroeconomic statistic publication in the USA and political tense between USA and North Korea.

Yesterday the Initial Jobless Claims data were published, which were worse than expected: the index grew from 241 to 244K, as the experts supposed the fall to 240K. In addition, the July Producer Price Index unexpectedly falls by 0.1%, which resulted in the decrease of the YoY indicator. The USD is also under the pressure due to New York Fed’s president William Dudley’s statement, who expressed the fear of the low inflation. In the current situation gold is an attractive asset for the investors in the short term.

Today’s key release is Consumer Price Index publication in the USA. If the indicator is worse than expected, the pair will too likely to renew the year highs.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the instrument is trying to consolidate above the level of 1290.00. Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards; the price range stays the same, reflecting the high possibility of the development of the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping buy signal. Stochastic is ready to enter the overbought area.

Support levels: 1265.00, 1270.40, 1274.75, 1280.75.
Resistance levels: 1289.00, 1296.20, 1307.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 1289.50 with the target at 1300.00 and stop loss at 1286.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1280.00 with the target at 1270.25 and stop loss at 1284.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

USD/JPY: yen is under pressure

Current trend

The pair started the week with growth to the level of 109.65. Although initial GDP data of Japan for Q2 2017 showed growth (from 1.5% to 4.0% YoY and from 0.3% to 1.0% MoM), yen is weakening. It is under pressure from July data on industrial output and retail sales in China that were the worst since January 2017.

The situation in the Japanese economy is also uncertain. The growth of GDP in Q2 2017 was caused by increased internal demand and consumer spending. However, durable goods account for a considerable part of them, which may indicates that the costs are seasonal, and that in the future the tendency for their increase would not preserve and new pressure will be put on the GDP volume.

Support and resistance

Technically the price grew above the middle line of Bollinger Bands (109.50) and is aiming at 110.05 (Fibo correction 23.6%). If this level is broken out, growth may continue to 110.80 (gathering of Fibo corrections 23.6% and 38.2%) and 111.55 (Fibo correction 50.0%). However, one cannot exclude the reversal and return of the price to August minimums at 108.70. Technical indicators show mixed signals: MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone, and Stochastic is turning downwards to the overbought zone.

Support levels: 109.50, 108.70, 108.00.
Resistance levels: 110.05, 110.80, 111.55, 112.20.

Trading tips

In this situation, short positions could be opened below 109.50 with target at 108.70. Stop-loss order may be placed at 109.80.
If the price consolidates above 110.05, long positions could be opened with target at 110.80, 111.55 and stop-loss at 109.70.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

EUR/USD: waiting for the US retail sales

Current trend

The pair started the week with a fall in view of negative data from the EU. Monday data on industrial output in Eurozone were weak: in June the indicator dropped by 0.6% MoM and grew by 2.6% YoY but failed to reach the forecast values. Initial German GDP data for Q2 2017 released today appeared to be much lower than expected. In quarterly terms the indicator grew by 0.6% against the expected 0.7%, and YoY by 0.8% instead of the expected 1.9% which is the smallest growth since 2013. Today USD may continue to strengthen in view of the upcoming release of July data on retail sales from the USA. Both indicators (the general one and the one without fuel and cars) may grow by 0.4% after July decrease by 0.2%. Still, the price is not likely to consolidate below the key support level of 1.1700. *

Support and resistance

Technically the price is around 1.1755 (Fibo correction 38.2% for the long-term trend). After the release of strong US data on retail sales it may reach a key support level at 1.1700 (23.6% correction for the medium-term trend, Murrey level ). If this level is broken down, the price may go down to 1.1590 (Fibo correction 38.2%, Murrey level ). Otherwise the quotes may return to August maximums at 1.1890.

Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1590, 1.1500.
Resistance levels: 1.1755, 1.1835, 1.1890.

Trading tips

In the current situation short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 1.1700 and 1.1590. Stop-loss may be placed at 1.1780.
In case of reversal of the price around 1.1700 long positions may be opened with targets at 1.1780, 1.1835, 1.1890 and stop-loss at 1.1670.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

GBP/USD: pound is under the pressure of high inflation

Current trend

On Tuesday the pair was rapidly corrected to the level of 1.2845 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%). US dollar was supported by strong July Retail Sales data (in July the index grew by 0.6%) and new rumors upon the soon Fed’s interest rate rise. On the other hand, pound is under the pressure of June UK Consumer Price Index, which stayed at the same high level of 2.6%, as the fall of fuel prices was balance by the growth of food prices.

The long term maintenance of the high level of inflation raises concerns of market, as the earning index in the UK don’t keep pace with the Consumer Price Index growth, which leads to the impoverishing of the households, fall of retail sales and pressure on the GDP.

Today the Average Earnings data will be published in the UK, the index including bonus is expected to stay on the same level of 2.0% and index excluding bonus — on the level of 1.8% In this case the pair can decrease further. In addition, investors are waiting for the employment market data in the UK, which are expected to be more positive. The decrease of unemployment level from 5.9K to 3.7K is expected in June.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair is trading within the narrow sideways range of 1.2845 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%) and 1.2880 (Murray ), waiting for the employment and earnings data. In case of breakout of the upper border of the range the price can grow to the levels of 1.2930 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3005 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murray ). The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.2845 can let it go down to the area of 1.2800 and 1.2750 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%).

Support levels: 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2750.
Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2930, 1.3005.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.2880 with the targets at 1.2930, 1.3005 and stop loss around 1.2840.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.2845 with the targets at 1.2800, 1.2750 and stop loss at 1.2880.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex. USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the USD/CAD pair lost 1%, despite the fall of oil prices and decrease of the Canadian government bonds yield. The main cause of the fall was USA President Trump’s decision to dismiss his two business counsels. Thus Trump is losing the support of business community, which has expressed discontent upon President’s reaction to the Charlottesville incident. In addition, the USD is under the pressure of the FOMC Minutes publication. Most of the officials have expressed concern upon the low inflation level, accented that the level below 2% would stay longer than expected. This means that the US regulator will postpone the interest rate rise until 2019.

Today in the evening the USA employment data will be published. The growth of Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims will let the USD/CAD pair to fall. Also, the traders will pay attention to FOMC Members Kashkari and Kaplan Speeches. The official’s commentaries upon the inflation and balance-sheet reduction can affect the further pairs’ dynamics greatly.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the instrument is in the correction around the support level of 1.2595. Bollinger Bands are reversing sideways, the price range is widening, reflecting the development of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping a weak sell signal. Stochastic is reaching the oversold area.

Support levels: 1.2595, 1.2510, 1.2400.
Resistance levels: 1.2675, 1.2790, 1.2845, 1.2930.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2590 with the target at 1.2500 and stop loss at 1.2620. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2680 with the target at 1.2785 and stop loss at 1.2595. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex EUR/USD: the pair is trading in the downward channel

Current trend

On Thursday the pair tested the level of 1.1700 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%) again, but couldn’t consolidate below it and began to grow after the poor July US Industrial production data publication (the indicator decreased from 0.4% to 0.2%). At the moment the price is trading around the middle line of Bollinger Bands (1.1740) due to controversial factors. EUR is under the pressure of the terrorist acts in Spain, as USD is affected by the conflict in Trump’s administration. The rumors about the chief President economic advisor Gary D. Cohn resign were not confirmed, which slowed the fall of the US currency.

Yesterday the Head of FRB Robert S. Kaplan mentioned that the politics and investors should be patient and reasonable in waiting for the new interest rate rise. He also said that the balance-sheet reduction process can be started in the nearest future, while it’s better to wait for the stable growth of the inflation before the interest rate rise, which disappointed the market.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair is trading within the downward channel and is tending to its upper border at the area of 1.1780 (Fibonacci correction 38.2% for the long term trend). In case of breakout the price can grow to August highs at the level of 1.1880. In case of reversal around 1.1780 the fall to the key support level of 1.1700 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%, Murray ) is possible.

Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1590, 1.1500.
Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1880, 1.1950.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current price or at the level of 1.1780 with the targets at 1.1700 and 1.1590 from stop loss at around 1.1810.
If the price is set above the level of 1.1780, long positions will become relevant with the target at 1.1880 and stop loss at 1.1760.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil prices grew rapidly after the release of the data from Baker Hughes on Friday indicating the reduction in the number of active drilling rigs in the USA by 5 to 763 which is the biggest reduction of the indicator in the last 7 months. In view of this the quotes of WTI grew by 3.38% to 48.60.

Oil prices were additionally supported by the news that Exxon Mobil Corp decided to close one of the biggest refineries in the USA. Today WTI quotes are gradually reducing in the framework of downward correction.

Support and resistance

In he absence of growth drivers downward correction is likely to continue in the near future. The main target of correction seems to be the level of 47.55 that coincides with the middle line of Bollinger Bands. After reaching this level the price is likely to move back to 48.85. One may speak about downward movement after the price consolidates below 47.55. In this case the next target of the sellers will be 46.57.

Technical indicators show the preservation of the upward trend but do not exclude the possibility of downward correction. MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone indicating preserved influence of the buyers. Bollinger Bands diverge confirming the upward trend. However, the price has broken through the upper line of Bollinger Bands which indicates the possibility of downward correction of the rate to 47.55 corresponding to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. One may speak about the continuation of the upward trend after the price consolidates above 48.85.

Support levels: 48.42, 47.55, 46.57.
Resistance levels: 48.85, 49.69, 50.42.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 48.42 with targets at 47.55 and stop-loss at 48.70.
Buy positions may be opened after the price is fixed above 48.85 with the nearest target at 49.69 and stop-loss at 48.55.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex CAC: technical analysis

CAC, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is growing towards the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the SMA200, and just below the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that start turning down. The RSI is testing its longer MA from above. The Composite keeps forming a Bullish divergence with the price.

CAC, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading just above the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. Both the RSI and Composite have formed a Bullish divergence with the price.

Key levels

Support levels: 5050.0 (local lows), 5010.0 (November 2015 highs), 4972.0 (April lows).
Resistance levels: 5128.0 (local highs), 5167.0 (April gap), 5180.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price is likely to retest its medium-term descending trendline.
Long positions can be opened form the level of 5128.0 with targets at 5167.0, 5180.0 and stop-loss at 5107.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 5050.0 with targets at 5010.0, 4972.0 and stop-loss at 5075.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/