Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex WTI Crude Oil: price consolidates

Current trend

Today the price of WTI is trading near the level of 47.60, to where it corrected after the publication of the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data.

The report demonstrated another decline in reserves though smaller than in the previous two weeks (only for 3.6 million barrels). The instrument is not able to begin its growth even though there are supply disruptions from the Sharara oil field in Libya and a decision of one of the world’s largest miners BHP Billiton to sell its US shale assets due to their underperformance. Markets have paused as investors are waiting for the publication of the EIA Crude Oil Stock Change tonight that could also show a smaller decline in reserves, which might still pressure the instrument.

Support and resistance

The price fell below the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and could continue falling towards 47.10 (38.2% Fibonacci correction) and 46.15 (50% correction). Crucial for Bulls seems to be the level of 47.80 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), a breakout of which would lead to a growth towards a cluster of 23.6% corrections (48.40 and 49.00). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal representing an uncertainty of the market before the news release. The Stochastic is directed down, Bollinger bands up while MACD histogram is near the zero line and its volumes are insignificant.

Support levels: 47.10, 46.15, 45.20.
Resistance levels: 47.80, 48.40, 49.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 47.10 with the target at 46.15 and stop-loss at 47.50.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 47.80 with targets at 48.40, 49.00 and stop-loss at 47.40.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair was under the pressure of US New Home Sales statistics fall. In addition, the PMI Markit decreased to 52.5 basis points, which is by 0.8 points lower than expected. Today in Japan Foreign bond investment data were published. The volume of investments into debt obligations decreased, which let USD restore part of yesterday’s loss.

Today 3-day Economic Policy Symposium starts in Jackson Hole. Tomorrow Janet Yellen speech is expected. Her commentaries upon inflation, terms and volumes of balance-sheet reduction of the US regulator will greatly affect the dynamics of the price in the short term. Today the Initial Jobless Claims publication is worth traders’ attention. The expected growth of index will let the USD/JPY pair fall further.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair began to grow from the support level of 108.85. Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards; the price range is stable, which reflects the development of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are decreasing, keeping a strong signal to open short positions. Stochastic doesn’t give clear signals to enter the market.

Support levels: 108.85, 108.60, 108.20.
Resistance levels: 109.40, 109.90, 110.35, 111.10.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 109.40 with the target around 110.30 and stop loss at 109.10. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 109.00 with the target around 108.60, 108.40 and stop loss at 109.20. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During yesterday’s trading session gold price insignificantly fell and reached the level of 1291.93 (–0.21%) due to slight strengthening of the USD, which reacted to the lack of news upon the conflict between USA and North Korea.

At the moment gold is trading around the key level of 1300 USD per troy ounce. It reached the level of 1292.74 (+0.06% against the day before). Investors are focused on today’s Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen speeches at the summit in Jackson Hole, where the heads of central banks can comment upon further actions within the monetary policy. Donald Trump’s Administration problems also prevent gold from falling in the nearest future.

Today traders should pay attention to US Durable Goods Orders publication at 14:30 (GMT+2), which can affect the US currency.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the instrument is trading above the middle line of Bollinger Bands, Bands are pointed upwards, which reflects the upward trend. However, CCI is reaching the zero line, and after is crosses it, the clear sell signal will be received. RSI is in the neutral zone, the indicator’s line is slightly reversing upwards, which reflects the upward trend.

Support levels: 1282.83, 1271.83, 1264.64.
Resistance levels: 1292.45, 1300.39.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the support level of 1282.83 with the targets at 1271.83 and 1264.67 and stop loss at 1287.02.
Long positions will become relevant after the breakout of the level of 1292.45 with the target at 1300.39 and stop loss at 1284.29.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex XAG/USD: silver keeps rising

Current dynamics

Silver is moderately growing during the morning session on August 28th, trading in close proximity to local highs, updated on August 18th. The instrument was supported by weak US currency, which was under pressure from disappointing results of the speech of the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole.
Recall that investors were waiting for comments on the prospects for monetary policy. In particular, traders were interested in the reduction of the Fed's balance sheet, which the regulator representatives themselves talked about so much. Instead, Yellen confined herself to general issues on financial stability and regulation in the banking sector.

On Monday, the only published indicators would be the ones of business activity in the industrial sphere of the Dallas Fed in August. Against this background, we can expect that the pair will maintain its upward mood and come close to the previous local highs.

Support and resistance

The indicator "Bollinger bands" on the daily chart is slightly growing, and can still turn sideways. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the multidirectional nature of trading in recent days.
The MACD indicator keeps a weak buy signal (the histogram is located above the signal line).

Oscillator Stochastic is growing, approaching the border of the overbought area.
Resistance levels: 17.16 (local maximum), 17.27 (maximum of August 18), 17.38.
Support levels: 17.00, 16.89, 16.73 (minimum of August 25), 16.62, 16.48.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on a breakdown of level 17.16, provided that the technical indicators do not contradict the development of the "bullish" trend. Take-profit – 17.38. Stop loss is at 17.00. Term of realization: 2 days.
If the level of 17.16 turns out to be an insurmountable obstacle for the bulls, it is worth considering the possibility of sales with a target in the area of 16.73. Stop loss – 17.30-17.80. Term of realization: 2-3 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex USD/JPY: USD remains under pressure

Current trend

US currency has been under pressure against the Japanese yen during the morning session on August 29 and has already updated local minimums since mid-April. The growth of "bearish" activities in the instrument was explained by yet another growth of demand for safe haven assets after the announcement about the launch of a missile from North Korea directed at Japan.

By now USD managed to partially regain its positions. Among other factors, corrective growth was supported by uncertain data from Japan. For example, household expenses in July dropped unexpectedly by 0.2% YoY after growth by 2.3% in the previous month. Analysts predicted growth by 0.7% YoY.
On Wednesday the market will be waiting for the release of information on Japanese retail sales in July as well as specified data on US GDP in Q2 2017.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart continue to gradually decrease. The price range is widening reacting to increased activity in the course of the morning session on August 29. MACD is restoring the "bearish" signal (being located below the signal line) after a brief attempt to grow. Stochastic is showing similar dynamics having reversed downwards in the center of its area.
Resistance levels: 109.11, 109.41, 109.82, 110.23.
Support levels: 108.58, 108.32, 108.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a reversal around the level of 108.32 with targets at 109.11, 109.41 and stop-loss at 108.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

The breakdown of the level of 108.32 may serve as a signal to the continuation of sales with target at 108.00 and stop-loss at 108.50. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex USD/CAD: the pair is trading in the flat


Current trend

Investors failed to determine the direction of trading in the pair USD/CAD on Tuesday, August 29, and the instrument closed around zero and showed active, but mixed dynamics of trading during the day.

Canadian dollar showed weak reaction to the Tuesday release of Canadian macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the index of prices for raw materials dropped by 0.6% MoM after a fall by 3.6% last month. Manufacturing prices index dropped by 1.5% in July on a monthly bas after a fall by 1.1% in June. The real dynamics of the indicator was much worse than expected.

On Wednesday, August 30, investors will focus their attention on macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Thus, the publication of detailed assessment of the US GDP in Q2 2017 is expected at 15:30 (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a gradual decrease. The price range is slightly narrowing in the lower part. MACD histogram is slightly growing keeping a weak buy signal (and remaining above the signal line).
Stochastic is showing slightly more stable dynamics and is located in the middle of its area.

Resistance levels: 1.2548, 1.2597, 1.2617, 1.2654, 1.2689.
Support levels: 1.2500, 1.2464, 1.2439, 1.2412.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2500 with targets at 1.2548 or 1.2597 and stop-loss at 1.2464. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
Breaking down the level of 1.2500 may be a signal to corrective sales with target around 1.2439 and stop-loss at 1.2548. The period of implementation is 2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex EUR/USD: the correction can end

Current trend

On Wednesday the pair was correcting and now has reached the level of 1.1865.
The US currency growth is due to relative reduction of tense on the Korean peninsula and to positive economic data publication. The new North Korea missile launch didn’t lead to military USA response, moreover, Secretary of Defense James Mattis noted that the diplomatic possibilities of the conflict resolution are not exhausted, which resulted in outflow of investors from shelter assets. In addition, the USD was supported by preliminary USA GDP data (in the second quarter its growth exceeded the expectations and reached the level of 0.3%) and August ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data (instead of expected fall the indicator grew from 201K to 237K).

At the moment the falling of the pair slowed, and it’s trading around 1.1890–1.1870. Investors are waiting for the EU Consumer Price Index publication, which is very important before the ECB meeting next week. The index is expected to grow from 1.3% to 1.4%, which can lead to the reversal of the price and the beginning of the new growth of EUR.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair is tending to the middle line of Bollinger Bands at the level of 1.1800, and after breakdown can go lower, to the area of 1.1720 (Murray ) and 1.1600 (Murray , Fibonacci correction 23.6%). The downward movement will develop in case of negative reaction of the market to the EU inflation data. The indicators confirm the possibility: Stochastic has reversed downwards, MACD histogram is decreasing in the positive zone.

The upward trend will develop after the price is set above the level of 1.1960 (Murray ). In this case it can grow to the area of 1.2085 (Murray ) and 1.2200 (Murray ).

Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1800, 1.1720, 1.1600.
Resistance levels: 1.1960, 1.2085, 1.2200.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.1840 with the targets at 1.1800, 1.1720, 1.1600 and stop loss at 1.1880.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1960 or after the reversal near the level of 1.1800 with the targets at 1.2085, 1.2200 and stop loss 1.1920 and 1.1770.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar under pressure

Current trend

NZD reduced considerably against the US currency during trading on Thursday, August 31, marking a new local minimum since June 6. However, with the release of uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the USA the investor's sentiment has changed, and the instrument managed to regain the majority of lost positions by the closing of the daily session.

The reason for negative NZD dynamics was weak statistics from New Zealand. Namely, business optimism index by RBNZ dropped from 19.4 to 18.3 points in August. During the morning session on September 1 the pair received moderate support from Chinese data. Manufacturing PMI Caixin grew from 51.1 to 51.6 points in August against the forecast of reduction to 50.9 points. Other activities remain low as the market is waiting for the US labor market report for August.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate decrease. The price range is moderately widening. MACD still preserves a stable downward trend. Stochastic is reducing but is located close to the border with the oversold area.
Resistance levels: 0.7190, 0.7222, 0.7257, 0.7297, 0.7335.
Support levels: 0.7160, 0.7130, 0.7101.

Trading tips

A reversal near the level of 0.7190 with further breakdown of 0.7160 may indicate the continuation of sales. In this case the target of the "bears" may be located around 0.7100. The period of implementation is 2 days.

Long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7190 with targets at 0.7257 or 0.7297 and stop-loss at 0.7130. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex AUD/USD: the pair is showing minor growth

Current trend

AUD is growing during the morning session on September 4 after the update of a local maximum dated back to August 30 in the end of the previous week. The instrument is supported by the weakness of the US currency that is experiencing pressure again due to the tightening of the geopolitical situation around North Korea.
Macroeconomic statistics released in Australia on Monday has mixed influence on the pair. TD Securities inflation data in August showed growth by 0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY which practically meets the data for the previous period. The indicator of income from main activities of companies in Q2 2017 dropped by 4.5% in quarterly terms after earlier growth by 6.0%. Investors expected it to dectease by 4.0% on the quarterly basis.

Trading activity on Monday will be reduced as the US markets will be closed on Monday due to the Labor Day. Investors will focus on the release of RBA minutes on Tuesday, September 5, at 06:30 (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate slight growth. The price range remains quite unchanged and quite limited. MACD histogram is slightly growing keeping a weak buy signal (and remaining above the signal line). Stochastic is growing, approaching the border of the overbought zone once again.
Resistance levels: 0.7978, 0.7994, 0.8012, 0.8041.
Support levels: 0.7949, 0.7917, 0.7889, 0.7865.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the outbreak of the levels 0.7978 or 0.7994 with targets at 0.8040, 0.8060 and top-loss at 0.7950. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

Alternatively, short positions may be opened after breaking down the level of 0.7949 with target at 0.7889 and stop-loss at 0.7978. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex EUR/USD: the market is waiting for comments from FOMC members

Current trend

The pair started the week with growth to 1.1920 after North Korea carried out nuclear missiles testing, and the USA replied with tough rhetoric. However, by now the price has corrected to 1.1880 (middle line of Bollinger Bands at H4).

Today the most important part of the releases is traditional financial statistics. Services PMIs of Germany and Eurozone for August failed to show material changes or cause considerable market reaction. The indicator for Germany grew from 53.4 to 53.5 points, and for Eurozone reduced from 54.9 to 54.7 points. The statistics on the volume of retail sales in Eurozone was mixed.

In the USA attention should be paid to statements by the Fed's members Lael Brainard and Neel Kashkari that are especially important in view of the upcoming September meeting of the Fed.

Support and resistance

Technically, the pair is trading within the upper Bollinger Band between 1.1840 (Murrey level ) and 1.1962 (Murrey level ) and may continue moving in it as the investors are not likely to take risks before the ECB meeting scheduled for Thursday. In case of breakdown of the level of 1.1840 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands the fall may continue to 1.1720 (Murrey level ) and 1.1660 (lower line of Bollinger Bands). Otherwise the price may go up to the upper border of the range at 1.1962and in case of its breakout go further to 1.2085 (Murrey level ). Indicator show decrease: Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.

Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1800, 1.1720, 1.1660.
Resistance levels: 1.1962, 1.2085, 1.2200.

Trading tips

In the current situation short positions should be opened below the level of 1.1840 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands with targets at 1.1720, 1.1660 and stop-loss at 1.1880.
Long positions should be opened above 1.1900 or in case of reversal at 1.1840 with targets at 1.1962, 1.2085 and stop-loss at 1.1870 and 1.1800.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/