Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: the upward correction can begin

Current trend

In the beginning of the week Brent price grew to the level of 64.00 but now returned to the area of 62.50 (Murray [0/8]). The market is under pressure of US shale oil producers, which can decrease in the nearest future due to the fall of oil prices to the levels, less profitable for production expanding (the area of 60.00–64.00). The possible decrease of shale oil sector activity is confirmed by recent Baker Hughes report. In the USA the oil rig number significantly increased (by 26 to 791) but in Canada, it is going down (by 13 to 221). US number can possibly decrease this week, which will cause the correction of the instrument.

Support and resistance

The technical picture reflects the possibility of growth. The price is near the strong support level of 62.50 on the border of Murray ([0/8]) range. If the price is set below it, the instrument can decrease to the levels of 60.93 (Murray [–1/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%) and 59.37 (Murray [–2/8]). However, as Stochastic has reversed in the oversold area, the correction to the levels of 64.06 (Murray [1/8]) and 65.62 (Murray [2/8]) is possible.
Resistance levels: 64.06, 65.62, 67.12.
Support levels: 62.50, 60.93, 59.37.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 63.28 with the targets at 64.06, 65.62 and stop loss at around 62.20.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 62.00 with the targets at 60.93, 59.37 and stop loss at around 62.50.

LiteForex: EUR/USD: waiting for statistics

Current trend

This week the pair was growing and increased by 0.98%, reached the level of 1.2390.
Today the investors are waiting for a block of US statistics to be published, the key one is January CPI release, which is expected to be mixed and can cause great volatility in the market. The MoM index is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.3%, but the YoY one is supposed to decrease below the target level, from 2.1% to 1.9%, moreover, the core index can decrease from 1.8% to 1.7%. Earlier a number of FOMC members expressed concern about the insufficient inflation growth, which can lead to a slowing of interest rate growth. The recent correction of US stock market also affects the regulator negatively. However, the new head of Fed is optimistic: on Thursday, he stated that the regulator would monitor the situation but would keep the slight tightening of the monetary policy trend, as the slight normalization of the interest rate policy and a balance was developing.
Today the USD can be under pressure due to Q4 EU GDP release (the growth from 2.6% to 2.7% is expected) and US January Retail Sales data (can decrease from 0.4% to 0.2%).

Support and resistance

The price is around 1.2330 (Murray [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands). The further growth of the price, confirmed by Stochastic, which is pointed upwards, can develop to the levels of 1.2450 (Murray [6/8]) and 1.2500. The breakdown of 1.2330 will let the price return to last week lows at the area of 1.2200 (Murray [4/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2300, 1.2450, 1.2500.
Support levels: 1.2330, 1.2270, 1.2200.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2300 with the targets at 1.2450, 1.2500 and stop loss at 1.2260.
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.2330 with the targets at 1.2270, 1.2200 and stop loss at around 1.2360.

LiteForex: XAG/USD: Murrey analysis

On D1 chart, the price tests the bottom of the Murray channel at the level of 16.79 ([3/8]), strengthened by the descending middle line of Bollinger Bands. Its breakout and the continuation of the increase to the levels of 17.18 ([4/8]) and 17.57 ([5/8], upper Bollinger Bands) are possible, but a rollback to 16.40 ([2/8]), 16.00 ([1/8]) and 15.62 ([0/8]) marks is possible as well.
It should be noted that the indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic is close to the overbought zone, which is fraught with a reverse, and MACD histogram can go to the positive zone and form a buy signal in the near future.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 16.40 ([2/8]), 16.00 ([1/8]), 15.62 ([0/8]).
Resistance levels: 16.79 ([3/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), 17.18 ([4/8]), 17.57 ([5/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands).

Trading tips

In this situation, buy positions should be opened only when the instrument is consolidated above the 16.79 mark from the level of 16.95 with targets of 17.18 and 17.57 and the stop-loss at 16.80. Short positions may be opened from the level of 16.65 with targets at 16.40, 16.00 and stop-loss at 16.78.

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Last week Brent prices grew to of the level 65.00, supported by the statement of Saudi Arabia Minister Khalid Al-Falih, who noted that OPEC and oil exporting countries should decrease the oil production further even after the market was balanced or the deficit appeared. The investors are also inspired by the news that OPEC and Russia are planning to continue the partnership after the end of OPEC+ Agreement.
The experts say that now in Saudi Arabia the acceptable level of the price is 70 USD per barrel instead of 60 due to the implementation of the large modernization program Vision 2030, which supposes diversification and decrease of the Saudi Arabian dependence from the oil sector. In particular, the state oil company Saudi Aramco will be gone IPO. However, the financial “airbag” for the reformation period is not formed yet.
Shale oil producers, as usual, has brought the main negative to the “black gold” market. Unexpectedly, US oil rig number has grown again (by 7 units to 798). The production is increasing, too, during the last week it went up to 10.271 million barrel per day, the next growth can cause another correction of the prices.

Support and resistance

The price is around 64.80 (Murray [3/8] H4, Fibonacci correction 23.6%) and can grow to the levels of 65.62 (Murray [2/8]) and 66.40 (Murray [5/8] H4, the middle line of Bollinger Bands). However, the consolidation of the price below the level of 64.00 (Murray [1/8]) can lead to the development of the downward correction to the levels of 62.50 (Murray [0/8]) and 60.93 (Murray [–1/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%).
Resistance levels: 65.62, 66.40, 67.18.
Support levels: 64.00, 62.50, 60.93.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 65.10 with the targets at 65.62, 66.40 and stop loss around 64.80.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 64.00 with the target at 62.50 and stop loss around 64.40.

LiteForex: NZD/USD: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, the price is corrected downwards from the area of 0.7446 ([+2/8]) and can return into the borders of the main trading Murray range. In case of breakdown of the level of 0.7324 ([8/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) the price can decrease to the level of 0.7200 ([6/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands), which is confirmed by Stochastic leaving the overbought area. In addition, MACD histogram has the sighs of divergence with the price chart. If the price is set above the level of 0.7446, the growth to the level of 0.7558 ([6/8] W1, the area of the last July highs).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.7446 ([+2/8]), 0.7568 ([6/8] W1).
Support levels: 0.7324 ([8/8]), 0.7200 ([6/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7342 with the target at 0.7200 and stop loss at around 0.7380.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 0.7446 with the target at 0.7568 and stop loss at around 0.7390.

LiteForex: GBP/USD: the growth of unemployment affect the pound negatively

Current trend

This week the pair was trading within the sideways channel of 1.4038–1.3916.
Today the instrument weakened to the lower border of the channel due to December growth of the UK unemployment level from 4.3% to 4.4%. Earlier the marked was hoping for soon stimulus decrease by the regulator. In January, UK CPI stayed on the same level 3.0% YoY, despite the expectations. This inspired the investors that Bank of England will have to increase the interest rate in the nearest future. However, the current state of the employment market can make the officials refrain from this step. Average Earnings including Bonus stayed on the same level of 2.5%, and Average Earnings excluding Bonus grew from 2.3% to 2.5%. In the evening BOE's Governor Carney speech can bring the volatility to the pair.
In the long term, the pound is under pressure of further UK and EU relationship. The parties are trying to bargain for concessions. On Friday, EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier in the conference in Munich stated that the current UK position excluded any preferences in the trading between UK and EU.

Support and resistance

The price is trading around the lower border of the trading range 1.3916 (Murray [4/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands), which is key for “bears”. The breakdown will let the instrument reach the levels of 1.3793 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.3672 (Murray [0/8]). The breakout of the key level of 1.4038 can cause the growth to the levels of 1.4100 (Murray [7/8]) and 1.4160 (Murray [8/8]). Technical indicators reflect the possibility of decrease; Stochastic and Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards.
Resistance levels: 1.4038, 1.4100, 1.4160.
Support levels: 1.3916, 1.3793, 1.3672.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3916 with the targets at 1.3793, 1.3672 and stop loss 1.3960.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.4038 with the targets at 1.4100, 1.4160 and stop loss 1.3990.

LiteForex:XAU/USD: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, the price is trying to grow from the level of 1328.13 ([5/8]), but it is under pressure of the middle line of Bollinger Bands from behind. The key “bullish” level is 1343.75 ([6/8]), the breakout of it will let the price grow to the levels of 1359.38 ([5/8], the upper border of Bollinger Bands) and 1375.00 ([8/8]).
After the consolidation of the price below the level of 1328.13 ([5/8]) it will return within the central Murray channel and can fall to the area of 1312.50 ([4/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands) and 1296.88 ([5/8]).
Technical indicators do not give a clear signal; Bollinger Bands are reversing downwards, MACD histogram is decreasing in the positive zone. Stochastic has reversed upwards.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1343.75 ([6/8]), 1359.38 ([7/8]), 1375.00 ([8/8]).
Support levels: 1328.13 ([5/8]), 1312.50 ([4/8]), 1296.88 ([3/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1328.13 or after the reversal at the level of 1343.75 with the targets at 1312.50, 1296.88 and stop loss 1335.00 and 1347.00 correspondingly.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1343.75 with the targets at 1359.38, 1375.00 and stop loss at 1338.00.



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LiteForex:WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Today WTI oil prices are trying to grow to the level of 62.50.
The price is supported by the last API report, which reflected the growth of US oil resources by 0.933 million barrel, and gas resources by 1.910 million barrel. In the evening, the market is waiting for the corresponding EIA report, which can push the price upwards (the growth of resources by 2.077 million barrel is expected).
However, the general situation in the market is mixed. OPEC officials claim that it would rebalance soon and that OPEC+ Agreement is effective, however, the volumes of US shale “black gold” production and sales are growing. Last week the oil export from the USA, according to EIA, exceeded 2 million barrel per day. All the facts are the treats to the further growth of the prices and cause negative reaction of exporting countries. The head of OPEC Mohammed Barkindo plans to dine with U.S. shale company executives next week in Houston. They are expected to negotiate upon shale oil sector limitation in order to keep the prices at the level of 60–70 USD per barrel. The value was mentioned as desired by Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih.

Support and resistance

The price is trying to grow to the level of 62.50 (Murray [8/8]) and can reach the levels of 64.06 (Murray [+2/8]), 65.62 (Murray [+1/8] W1). The level of 62.50 (Murray [8/8]) is the key “bearish” level, the breakdown of it will let the price fall to the levels of 60.93 (Murray [6/8]) and 59.37 (Murray [4/8], [7/8] W1). However, the further growth is more possible, as Stochastic is ready to leave the oversold area.
Resistance levels: 63.28, 64.06, 65.62.
Support levels: 62.50, 61.72, 60.93.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current price with the targets at 64.06, 65.62, and stop loss 62.10.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 62.50 with the target at 60.93 and stop loss around 62.80.

LiteForex:XAU/USD: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, the price has weakened below the central line of Murray range 1312.50 ([4/8]) and can decrease further to the area of 1296.88 ([5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands for W1), which is confirmed by the downward reversal of Bollinger Bands and MACD histogram enter into the negative zone. However, as Stochastic is in the oversold area, the instrument can reverse and enter the correction to the levels of 1328.13 ([5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1343.75 ([6/8], [7/8] for W1).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1312.50 ([4/8]), 1328.13 ([5/8]), 1343.75 ([6/8]).
Support levels: 1296.88 ([3/8]), 1281.25 ([2/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1312.50 with the targets at 1328.13, 1343.75 and stop loss 1307.00.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1306.00 with the targets at 1296.88, 1281.25 and stop loss 1312.00.

LiteForex:NZD/USD: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, the price is set around the level of 0.7200 ([6/8]), which it has reached after the 2-week decrease.
The breakdown of it will let the price fall to the levels of 0.7141 ([5/8]) and 0.7080 ([4/8]). Bollinger Bands are reversing downwards, and MACD histogram entered the negative zone, which confirms the assumption. Also, there are signs of the formation of the “twin peaks” figure, which is a reversal model of trend and reflects the decrease of the instrument.

On the other hand, Stochastic is leaving the oversold area, which can afford the development of the upward correction. After the breakout of the level of 0.7263 ([7/8]), the price can grow to the levels of 0.7324 ([8/8]) and 0.7385 ([+1/8]).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.7263 ([7/8]), 0.7324 ([8/8]), 0.7385 ([+1/8]).
Support levels: 0.7200 ([6/8]), 0.7141 ([5/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7200 with the targets at 0.7141, 0.7080 and stop loss 0.7230.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7263 with the targets at 0.7324, 0.7385 and stop loss 0.7225.