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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

This is a discussion on Forex News Analysis by LiteForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; LiteForex: AUD/USD: Fibonacci analysis On the 4-hour chart, the price is around highs since last October around 0.7870. The consolidation ...

          
   
  1. #511
    Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    LiteForex: AUD/USD: Fibonacci analysis

    On the 4-hour chart, the price is around highs since last October around 0.7870. The consolidation above it can let the price grow further. Otherwise, the correction to the level 0.7785 (correction 23.6%, upward fan line 38.2%) is possible. Indicators’ readings are controversial, Stochastic is pointed upwards, MACD entered the negative zone, which can reflect the formation of the downward trend.
    On the daily chart, the price is around the level of 0.7845 (correction 61.8%), which seems to be key. The consolidation of the price above it can let it grow to the area of 0.7925–0.7965 (correction 76.4%, upcoming downward fan). Otherwise, the fall to the levels of 0.7780 (correction 50.0%) and 0.7715 (correction 38.2%) is possible. Technical indicators allow the downward correction, Stochastic has left the overbought area and has formed a sell signal, MACD histogram has begun to fall in the positive zone.

    Main scenario

    Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7830 with the targets at 0.7780, 0.7715 and stop loss at 0.7860.

    Alternative scenario

    Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 0.7870 with the targets at 0.7925, 0.7965 and stop loss around 0.7840.


  2. #512
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    LiteForex: WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

    Current trend

    Today WTI oil prices reached the level of 63.77 due to the coincidence of short-termed positive factors. EIA and API Crude Oil Stocks change releases reflected the eighth in a row decrease of resources in the USA, which has exceeded the expectations and reached 4.948 million barrel. The production decreased by 2.9% (2900K barrel) to 9.492 million barrel per day. The oil rig number went down, too: from 747 to 742.

    The rapid growth of oil prices in the middle term can lead to the opposite effect of a revitalization of US shale oil producers, as it is becoming more and more profitable, which can result in a significant correction of the price. According to EIA forecasts, this year US production can reach a record level of 10.3 million barrel, and in 2019 – 11 million barrel. OPEC members recognize the danger of the high oil prices: recently Iran Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh noted the disadvantages of the Brent price growth above 60 USD per barrel; still, any countermeasures are unlikely due to OPEC+ Agreement implementation.

    Support and resistance

    Technically the price is tending to the Murray resistance at to the area of 64.00 ([+2/8]) and after the breakout can grow to the levels of 65.00, 65.60. Otherwise, the correction to the levels of 62.50 (Murray [8/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 61.72 (Murray [7/8]) is possible.
    Technical indicators allow the growth, Stochastic is pointed upwards but is reaching the overbought area, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards.
    Resistance levels: 64.00, 65.00, 65.60.
    Support levels: 63.28, 62.50, 61.72.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened above the level of 64.00 with the targets at 65.00, 65.60 and stop loss at 63.50.
    Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 63.28 with the targets at 62.50, 61.72 and stop loss at 63.70.


  3. #513
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    LiteForex: AUD/USD: waiting for the US inflation data

    Current trend

    At the beginning of the week, the pair declined under the pressure of optimistic statements by FOMC members John Williams and Loretta Meister, who spoke in favor of three or four interest rate increases in the US this year.
    However, on Wednesday the price reversed around the 0.7800 mark and began to rise under the influence of later reports that China plans to stop purchasing US Treasury bonds and strong data on retail sales in Australia. In November, the indicator showed significant growth, amounting to 1.2% instead of the expected 0.4%, which indicates active sales on "Black Friday". As a result, the price has risen to the level of 0.7900, has been corrected a little, and now is in the area of the level of 0.7870.
    Today, the market is waiting for the publication of December data on the consumer price index, one of the defining indicators in the decision to change the US interest rate. Now, a number of Fed members, including Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, are concerned about the low level of inflation and are supporting the rate hike before mid-2018.
    If realized, the forecasts (the reduction of the consumer price index from 2.2% to 2.1% and the preservation of the base level of consumer prices at around 1.7%) can strengthen the positions of the "pigeons" at the January meeting of the American regulator and exert significant pressure on the US currency.

    Support and resistance

    Technically, the price is at the lower border of the rising channel and in case of breakdown it may drop to the area of 0.7812 (Murrey [0/8]), otherwise, growth is likely to reach levels of 0.7900 (Murrey [6/8]) and 0.7935 (Murrey [8/8]). Technical indicators allow the possibility of decline, Stochastic is turned down, the MACD histogram is preparing to go into the negative zone and to form sale signal.

    Support levels: 0.7850, 0.7812, 0.7780.
    Resistance levels: 0.7900, 0.7935, 0.7965.

    Trading tips

    Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7880 with targets at 0.7900, 0.7935 and stop-loss at 0.7860. Consolidation below the lower border of the channel near the 0.7855 mark will make short positions relevant, with the goal of 0.7812 and the stop-loss at the level of 0.7875.


  4. #514
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    LiteForex: EUR/USD: Euro is growing

    Current trend

    Last week European currency strengthened against the dollar and by now, it has reached the level of 1.2245.
    Three factors have supported the growth of EUR. Firstly, China has reported the suspension of US government bonds purchase, which was not confirmed afterward. The second factor was the recent ECB meeting reports release, which contained hints of monetary tightening. The third one is the agreement between CDU and SPD to begin the negotiations upon the creation of wide party coalition, which will help to solve German government crisis.

    As a result, the market did almost not reacted to the positive December US Consumer Price release. The MoM index grew from 0.1% to 0.3%, the YoY one– from 1.7% to 1.8% due to the growth of housing prices. The data give the investors hope if increasing the interest rate during March FRS meeting, despite the fact that inflation has not reached the inflation level of 2.0% yet. Meanwhile, FRS plans to abandon this target level at all. The head of Boston FRB Rosengren has proposed to determine the inflation target within the range of 1.5–3% and choose the optimal level annually.

    Support and resistance

    The price grew above the central Murray ([4/8]) level around 1.2200. The targets are 1.2330 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.2450 (Murray [6/8]). Correction to the levels of 1.2085 (Murray [3/8]) and 1.1963 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) will become possible after the price is set below 1.2200. The indicators reflect the development of growth, MACD is increasing in the positive zone, and Stochastic is pointed upwards.
    Resistance levels: 1.2330, 1.2450, 1.2570.
    Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2085, 1.1963.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 1.2330, 1.2450 and stop loss at 1.2240.
    Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.2200 with the targets at 1.2085, 1.1963 and stop loss at 1.2250.


  5. #515
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    LiteForex: NZD/USD: pair updates its highs

    Current trend

    At the Monday trading, the New Zealand dollar showed significant growth against the US one, updating a new local maximum since September 22. The instrument was supported by the weakness of the US currency, while the markets in the US were closed on the occasion of the national holiday.
    Today, the pair tends to consolidate near new highs, partly due to corrective growth in favor of the US currency, as well as published macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Thus, the index of business confidence from NZIER in the 4th quarter of 2017 showed a sharp decline of -12% QoQ, after an increase of 5% QoQ for the previous period. Retail sales using electronic cards slipped from 1.3% MoM to 0.5% MoM in December, which, however, justified the market expectations.

    Support and resistance

    The Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range remains practically unchanged, which still limits the "bullish" potential in the short term. One should take into account the risks of a corrective decline in the short term.
    MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). There is an opportunity to maintain the existing long positions in the short term. It's worthwhile to postpone opening new positions now.
    The stochastic reversed horizontally near its maximum values, which indicates the possible development of corrective rollback in the short and/or ultra short term.
    Resistance levels: 0.7313, 0.7342, 0.7370.
    Support levels: 0.7275, 0.7242, 0.7195, 0.7135.

    Trading tips

    To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 0.7313 or 0.7342 marks, provided that technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend. Take-profit at 0.7370 or 0.7400. Stop-loss – 0.7270. Implementation time: 2-3 days.
    The rebound from the level of 0.7313 as from resistance, with the subsequent breakdown of 0.7275-0.7250 marks, can become a signal to the beginning of correctional sales with the target of 0.7135-0.7100. Stop-loss – 0.7320. Implementation time: 2-3 days.


  6. #516
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    LiteForex: USD/JPY: upward correction may occur

    Current trend

    This week, the pair continues to decline and today has reached its lowest level since last September at around 110.17.
    The yen is still supported by the decision of the Bank of Japan to reduce the volume of purchases of long-term government bonds (from 200 to 190 billion yen for 10-25-year-olds, and from 100 to 90 billion yen for 25-40-year-olds). Investors see this as a signal for the beginning of tightening of monetary policy by the regulator. Statements by the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda that incentive programs will be preserved until the inflation reaches the target of 2.0%, made this week, did not greatly weaken the yen. Most market participants believe that during the year the Japanese regulator will have to go on limiting incentives to prevent excessive loosening of the national currency due to the expected continuation of the Fed's interest rate increase and the possible tightening of the monetary policy by the ECB.
    Currently, the decline has stopped, as the market is waiting for the publication of data on industrial production in the US. Realization of forecasts - in December the index is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.4% - may push the pair to correction.

    Support and resistance

    Currently, the price is in the area of 111.50 (Fibo correction 23.6%, Murrey [1/8]), the breakdown of which will open the prospect of further decline to the levels of 109.37 (Murrey [0/8]) and 108.60 (Murrey [-1/8]). However, the location of Stochastic in the oversold zone indicates a possible correction to the level of 111.72 (Murrey [3/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [4/8], the middle Bollinger band line).
    Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.60.
    Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation, one can buy above the level of 110.93 with the target at 111.72 and the stop-loss at 110.50. One can sell below the level of 110.15 with the targets at 109.37, 108.60 and stop-loss at 110.60.


  7. #517
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    LiteForex: EUR/USD: waiting for new drivers

    Current trend

    This week, the pair is trading near the 1.2200 mark and cannot get away from it yet.
    On Wednesday, the dollar made an attempt to strengthen in view of strong data on industrial production in the US (in December its volume rose by 0.9% significantly exceeding forecasts) and warnings of the ECB Vice-President Vítor Constâncio on the need for a cautious approach to monetary policy in order not to harm economic growth. However, these drivers were not enough for consolidation of the instrument significantly below the level of 1.2200.
    Currently, the EUR won back losses, taking advantage of the uncertainty associated with the expiration of the financing of the US government on January 19. The Congress will have to extend funding, but Democrats insist on reciprocal easing of legislation on illegal migrants.
    During the day, the weakening of the US currency may continue in case of negative data on the US construction sector. Indicators of the dynamics of construction permits and the number of new homes bookings in December could fall from 1.298 million to 1.290 million and from 1.297 million to 1.275 million, respectively.

    Support and resistance

    The technical picture is uncertain. The price chart forms a "flag" shape within the upward trend, Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, which can speak of an increase to the levels of 1.2450 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.2573 (Murrey [7/8]). On the other hand, Stochastic is preparing to leave the overbought zone and to form a signal for sale. Correction is possible to the levels of 1.2085 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]).
    Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2085, 1.1962.
    Resistance levels: 1.2330, 1.2451, 1.2573.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation, one may*sell after the price consolidates below the level of 1.2200 from the level of 1.2160 with targets at 1.2085, 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.2200. Buy positions may be opened from 1.2330 mark with targets at 1.2451, 1.2573 and stop-loss at 1.2270.


  8. #518
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    LiteForex: GBP/USD: the growth slowed

    Current trend

    This week the pair was growing, and by the end of the week it has renewed the 3-year highs around 1.3943, gained 1.6%.
    Today the growth slowed, as the instrument is under influence of two opposing factors. On the one hand, the dollar is under pressure of the crisis upon the federal government funding, which expires on December 19. The House of Representatives approved the prolongation law on Thursday, however, the democratic part of the Senate promises to block it. In this case, a number of government structures will suspend its work, and around 800K of the employers will have to set a vacation.
    On the other hand, the pound cannot grow further due to poor UK Retail Sales release. In December, the index decreased by 1.5% and Retail Sales ex-Fuel – by 1.6%. The analysts consider the fall is because the peak of buyers’ activity coincided with the November sales season. In addition, high inflation level affects the Retail Sales negatively, as it has fallen from its high of 3.1% to 3.0% only in December. The member of Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Michael Saunders has mentioned the long-term negative influence of the high inflation to the UK economy.

    Support and resistance

    The price reached the resistance zone of 1.3915–1.3965 (Murray [6/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%). After the rebound the growth to the levels of 1.4040 (Murray [7/8]) and 1.4160 (Murray [8/8]) is possible. However, the reversal of Stochastic in the overbought area and the possible exit of it reflects the risk of the downward correction to the levels of 1.3672 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.3550 (Murray [3/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands).
    Resistance levels: 1.3965, 1.4038, 1.4160.
    Support levels: 1.3794, 1.3672, 1.3550.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.3793 with the targets at 1.3672, 1.3550 and stop loss at 1.3830.
    Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 1.3965 with the targets at 1.4038, 1.4160 and stop loss at 1.3940.


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