Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: correction may be short-lived

Current trend

Oil prices started with correction and are currently trading around 69.15 (Murrey [5/8]).
Prices are pressured by growing reserves in the US (by 4.755 million barrels according to the API) after a long reduction. This is associated with the technical maintenance at American refineries. If the EIA weekly report on oil stocks will record a decline in reserves, expected to be 1.6 million barrels, the price may growth.
The market is upward since June and has not been seriously corrected, despite the presence of serious negative factors. The rise in prices inevitably leads to the activation of shale oil production in the US, and the increase in its supply to the market leads to a slowdown in the achievement of balance and in the effect of the OPEC+ agreement. The danger of the prices exceeding USD 60 mark was indicated by Iran's oil minister Bijan Zangeneh, and Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih noted that achieving the balance is not possible until 2019. However, this doesn't scare "bulls".

Support and resistance

In the breakdown of 69.15 mark the decline may continue to the levels of 68.75 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands, Murrey [4/8]) and 68.35 (Murrey [3/8]). Breakout of 69.53 mark gives the prospect of growth to the levels of 69.92 (Murrey [7/8]) and 70.31 (Murrey [8/8]). Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. Bollinger Bands' reverse and MACD histogram in the positive area indicate the potential price growth. Stochastic's reverse indicates the possibility of correction.
Support levels: 68.75, 68.35, 67.96.
Resistance levels: 69.53, 69.92, 70.31.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the 69.53 with targets at 69.92, 70.31 and stop-loss at 69.20. Short positions may be opened below 69.15 with targets at 68.75, 68.35 and stop-loss at 69.40.

LiteForex: USD/JPY: Murray analysis

On the daily chart the price weakened below the level of 109.37 ([0/8]) and can fall further to the levels of 108.60 ([–1/8]) and 107.80 ([–2/8]), which is confirmed by the indicators’ readings: MACD histogram is growing in the negative zone, Bollinger Bands has reversed downwards, confirming the downward trend. The beginning of the upward correction is possible after the price is set above the level of 109.37 ([0/8]) and returns into the borders of the main trading Murray range with the targets at the level of 110.15 ([1/8]) and 110.93 ([2/8]).
However, on the weekly chart, the price has formed wide sideways channel, approximately coinciding with the central Murray channel (115.62 –109.37) and the price is now testing its lower border, which can cause a reversal. Moreover, the chart is close to the cycle line, which can reflect the possibility of the trade changing, too. In general, there is a potential of decrease, which seems to be restricted.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 108.60 ([–1/8]), 107.80 ([–2/8]), 106.25 ([2/8] W1).
Resistance levels: 109.37 ([0/8]), 110.93 ([1/8]), 111.72 ([2/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 108.60, 107.80 and stop loss at around 109.40.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 109.37 with the targets at 110.15, 110.93 and stop loss at around 109.00.

LiteForex:GBP/USD: consolidation phase

Current trend

The pair GBP/USD switched to the stage of lateral consolidation after a substantial growth in mid-January. The upward momentum reached the key resistance level of 1.4345 (the upper limit of the upward channel). Then growth was replaced by a fall and the pair entered the sideways channel.
At the beginning of the trading week, there are no key releases in United States or UK, which will ensure the further formation of a lateral trend. In the second half of the trading week in the US there will be data on the labor market, the index of production prices and the decision of the Fed on rates. The UK will respond with data on mortgage lending and the consumer confidence index.

Support and resistance

At the peak of the price, investors prefer to open short positions and close long positions, which ensures a fall in the pair. In the future, a deeper correction movement downward with targets of 1.4000, 1.3820 is expected. The oversold dollar will gradually begin to gain investor demand, even despite weak fundamental indicators. A downward correction may turn into a trend, but for a reversal of a long-term uptrend the pair needs to fall below the 1.3650 level, which is unlikely in the current situation. The main forecast is the downward correction to the levels of 1.4000, 1.3900, 1.3820, the reverse and the formation of a new upward wave.
Support levels: 1.4070, 1.4000, 1.3900, 1.3820, 1.3690, 1.3650, 1.3520, 1.3500.
Resistance levels: 1.4175, 1.4280, 1.4345, 1.4570.

Trading tips

Pending short positions can be opened at the level of 1.4280 with targets of 1.4000, 1.3820 and stop loss at 1.4370.

LiteForex:WTI Сrude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil quotes were being corrected this week and reached the level of 63.80 today, losing about 3.7%. WTI price was under pressure of the shale activity in the US and Canada, as well as the growth of US commercial oil reserves. According to Baker Hughes, the number of new drilling rigs in the US increased over the week up to 759 units, while in Canada it became 220 units. The expansion of the production capacities of shale companies due to the growth of oil prices could not be a surprise for the market – it was repeatedly predicted by OPEC. An additional correction factor was the growth of oil reserves in the US for the second week in a row according to the API (by 3.229 million barrels). Today, similar data will be released from the EIA, which also forecasts an increase in reserves by 0.126 million barrels.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price has grown to 64.06 (Murray [2/8]) and, with its breakout, has the opportunity to rise to 64.84 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of "Bollinger Bands"), but in the medium term, a downtrend may continue. If the level of 64.06 remains impregnable, the decline will continue to the level of 63.28 (Murray [1/8]) and 62.50 (Murray [0/8]). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic came out of the oversold zone and formed a signal to buy. The MACD histogram ceased to grow in the negative zone. Bollinger bands are directed downwards.

Support levels: 63.28, 62.50, 61.72.
Resistance levels: 64.04, 64.84, 65.62.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at 63.70 with targets of 63.28, 62.50 and stop loss at 64.00. Above the level of 64.06 long positions will become relevant with the target of 64.84 and stop loss at 63.80.

LiteForex: FDAX: Fibonacci analysis

On the 4-hour chart, the price has been trading within the range of 13270.0–13168.0 (correction 38.2% and 50.0%) for the third day and cannot leave yet. In case of the breakout of the lower border of the range, the decrease to 13068.0 (correction 61.8%) is possible. However, the chart has signs of figure “head and shoulders” formation, in case of development, the growth of the price to the level of 13400.0 (correction 23.6%) is not excluded.
On the daily chart, the price is testing the level of 13183.0 (corrections coincidence 23.6%, D1 and 50.0%, H4). After the breakdown the decrease to the levels of 13060.0 (upward fan line 38.2%) and 12952.0 (correction 38.2%) is possible. Otherwise, the growth is expected, the breakout of the level 13300.0 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands) can return the price to January highs in the area of 13548.0. Technical indicators confirm the possibility of growth, Bollinger Bands reversed upwards, Stochastic entered the oversold zone and can reverse any moment.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 13270.0 with the targets at 13400.0, 13548.0. Stop loss is around 13200.0.

Alternative scenario

Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 13168.0 with the targets at 13060.0, 12952.0 and stop loss at 13210.0.

LiteForex: SPX: Murray levels analysis

On the daily chart, the instrument was corrected from annual maximums to the level of 2812.5 ([8/8]). However, it will be difficult to break through much lower, as the price is supported by the middle line of Bollinger Bands. In addition, Stochastic confirms the possibility of renewal of growth; the indicator entered the overbought zone and is trying to reverse. A breakout of level 2812.5 may return the price to 2851.6 ([+1/8]), 2890.6 ([+2/8]) and above, to the level of 2968.0 ([7/8] W1). If the price is be able to gain a foothold below 2812.5 and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, the correction will be possible until the middle of the Murray trade range, at around 2656.3 ([4/8]).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 2734.4 ([6/8]), 2656.3 ([4/8]), 2578.0 ([2/8]).
Resistance levels: 2812.5 ([8/8]), 2851.6 ([+1/8]), 2890.6 ([+2/8]), 2968.0 ([7/8] W1).

Trading tips

Long positions should be opened above the level of 2812.5 with the targets of 2851.6, 2890.6, 2968.0 and the stop loss at around 2790.0. Short positions can be opened at 2773.0 with targets of 2734.4, 2695.3, 2656.3 and stop loss at 2790.0.



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LiteForex: NZD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday US dollar strengthened against all the leading currencies. Friday’s strong US employment market publication supports USD. In addition, the evasion of risks wave, which appeared at the end of the last week, additionally affects the instrument negatively.
Today the NZD/USD pair reached its month minimum, the pair reversed and consolidated above the psychological level 0.7300. Today there is lack of US macroeconomic releases. Dairy products fair will take place in New Zealand today, and employment market data are due at 23:45 (GMT+2), which can affect the investors’’ expectations upon tomorrow’s RBNZ interest rate decision

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is reaching Bollinger Bands MA from below. The key resistance level is 0.7325, the breakout of which will give a signal to open long positions. The indicator is pointed downwards; the price range is widened, reflecting the change of the upward trend. Key support level is 0.7250. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping sell signal. Stochastic is reaching the oversold area from below and do not give a clear entry signal.
Resistance levels: 0.7325, 0.7356, 0.7400, 0.7440.
Support levels: 0.7123, 0.7154, 0.7200, 0.7248, 0.7291.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7345 with the targets at 0.7400, 0.7420 and stop loss 0.7305. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7285 with the targets at 0.7250, 0.7230 and stop loss 0.7320. Implementation period: 1–2 days

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: prices are decreasing

Current trend

This week, oil prices continued to fall. The market is under correction due to a revitalization of US shale oil producers.
According to Baker Hughes, last week number of rigs in the USA grew again by 6 units to 765, and in Canada, the number reached 234 units. Shale oil is expanding its presence in the world markets, objectively reducing OPEC+ Agreement effectiveness. According to Bloomberg, in December the supplies from the USA to UAE reached the level of 700 000 barrel. United Emirates produce millions of barrels of “black gold” itself, but shale oil is cheaper and cheaper in processing.
Yesterday’s API Crude Oil Stocks change release unexpectedly reflected the decrease of raw oil by 1.050 million barrel and gas resources by 0.227 million barrel, however, it supported the price slightly. The investors are focused on the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change publication; the growth by 3.189 million barrel is expected.

Support and resistance

The price has consolidated within the range of 66.40–67.18 (Murray [1/8] and [2/8]). The breakdown of its lower border will let the price fall to the levels of 65.62 (Murray [0/8]) and 64.84 (Murray [–1/8]), the breakout of the upper border will let it grow to the levels of 67.96 (Murray [3/8]) and 69.53 (Murray [4/8]). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic is reversing downwards, MACD histogram is decreasing in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 67.18, 67.96, 68.75.
Support levels: 66.40, 65.62, 64.84.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 66.40 with the targets at 65.62, 64.84 and stop loss 66.70.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 67.18 with the targets at 67.96, 68.75 and stop loss 66.90.

LiteForex: NZD/USD: the downward tendency remains

Current trend

NZD consolidated in a downward trend against USD after a long-term growth in the second half of 2017.
The pair is rapidly declining amid growing investment appeal to the oversold USD. It is worth noting that NZD also loses support from investors the more after each new level of support is taken over. Yesterday, the pair reached a new local minimum for the last month, the mark of 0.7180, after which it moved to the stage of an upward correction.
Today, one should not expect high volatility in the pair due to the lack of important macroeconomic data.

Support and resistance

After a significant fall in the pair in February, one can safely say about a break in the uptrend and the emergence of a downward trend. At the moment, one can determine the borders of the descending channel and open short positions on the peaks of upward corrections. In the medium term, the pair is expected to decline to key support levels of 0.7130, 0.7110.
Technical indicators changed direction on H4 chart: MACD indicates the continuation of the pair's decline, the volume of short positions remains high, and Bollinger Bands are directed downwards.
Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7180, 0.7130, 0.7110, 0.7070, 0.7000, 0.6930, 0.6800.
Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7275, 0.7290, 0.7310, 0.7335, 0.7370, 0.7400.

Trading tips

In this situation, short positions may be opened from the current level; pending orders can be opened from levels of 60.7250, 0.7275 with targets at 0.7130, 0.7110 and the stop-loss at 0.7275.

LiteForex: AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

Last week, AUD weakened to its main competitors due to the indecisiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The regulator left the rate unchanged at the level of 1.5%, although investors have long been waiting for active action amid tightening of monetary policy by the banks of Canada, Great Britain and, of course, the Fed. Interestingly, the economic situation in Australia also contributes to higher rates: last year, inflation was near the target level of 2.0%, and the unemployment rate for the same period declined steadily, reaching a mark of 5.5%. Nevertheless, the RBA considers the current economic indicators are not enough.
Additional pressure on the Australian currency was exerted by the RBA head Philip Lowe, who said that raising interest rates by several central banks does not mean that Australia will also automatically follow this path.

Support and resistance

The price is trying to start an upward correction and is currently at the key mark of 0.7812 (the middle line of Murrey range [4/8]). Consolidating above it, the price can continue to rise to the levels of 0.7934 (Murrey [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 0.8056 (Murrey [6/8]). In the breakdown to the level of 0.7812, the decline may continue to the levels of 0.7690 (Murrey [3/8]) and 0.7568 (Murrey [2/8]).
Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. MACD histogram is in the negative zone forming the buy signal. Stochastic is ready to leave the oversold zone.
Support levels: 0.7812, 0.7690, 0.7568.
Resistance levels: 0.7934, 0.8056.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 0.7812 mark from 0.7860 mark with targets of 0.7934, 0.8056 and the stop-loss at 0.7810. Short positions may be opened from 0.7765 mark with targets of 0.7690, 0.7568 and the stop-loss at 0.7815.