Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex: GBP/USD: waiting for the BoE meeting

Current trend

Wednesday data from the labor market was strong and supported the pound. In January, the unemployment rate fell to long-term lows at around 4.3%. At the same time, the growth of the average wage (with premiums) to 2.8% (above forecasts) almost caught up with the inflation rate. Thus, the decline in income of British households is coming to an end. This, alongside gradual decline in inflation can create a favorable situation for reducing monetary incentives.
Today investors expect the regulator's decision on the interest rate. Probably, it will remain at the current level of 0.5%, however, in the accompanying statement, there may be hints about its increase (it may happen already in May).
GBP is currently supported*by the publication of strong data on retail sales in the UK (in February, it rose by 0.8% MoM and 1.5% (YoY)) and the Fed meeting, which disappointed the market. The US regulator did not make hints of a fourfold increase in the interest rate this year but intend to increase it three times instead of two in 2019.

Support and resistance

The general background for the growth of the pound remains favorable. However, the price moving out of the upper border of Bollinger Bands and Stochastic's approach to the overbought zone do not exclude correction to 1.3950 area (Fibo correction 38.2%, middle Bollinger Bands line). With a positive market reaction to the decision of the BoE, the quotes may rise to 1.4260 and 1.4345.
Support levels: 1.4080, 1.3950.
Resistance levels: 1.4180, 1.4260, 1.4345.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.4180 with targets at 1.4260, 1.4345 and stop-loss at 1.4140. Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.4080 with the target at 1.3950 and stop-loss at 1.4120 mark.

LiteForex: GBP/USD: the pound shows moderate growth

Current trend

GBP rose against USD on Friday, resuming the rise after corrective decline. The pressure on USD is put by a prospect for trade wars, after Donald Tramp announced the import duties introduction on steel and aluminum from China.
The USD is also weakened by macroeconomic statistics from the US. New Home Sales in the US in February fell by –0.6% MoM with a forecast of growth of 4.4% MoM. Last month the indicator decreased by –4.7% MoM.
Investors will focus on Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February (14:30 GMT+2) and speeches by the Fed representatives, William Dudley and Loretta Meister.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range expands, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". Until the clarification of the situation, the channel trading strategy should be followed.
MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). There is an opportunity to maintain the existing long positions and open new ones in the short term.
Stochastic shows uncertain dynamics, being in the immediate vicinity of the "80" mark, which is the formal overbought limit of the instrument. It is necessary to wait for the appearance of new trade signals.
Resistance levels: 1.4200, 1.4238, 1.4276.
Support levels: 1.4143, 1.4068, 1.4030, 1.4000.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.4200 mark, provided that the showings of technical indicators do not contradict the development of the "bullish" trend. Take-profit – 1.4276 or 1.4300. Stop-loss – 1.4143. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
A rebound from the level of 1.4200, as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 1.4143 mark, may become a signal for corrective sales with the target of 1.4030–1.4000. Stop-loss – 1.4200. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

LiteForex: GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The pair имеет is trading in different directions. On Monday, the price reached the 2-month highs around 1.4240 but today lost all the gains and was corrected to 1.4100.
Yesterday, GBP was supported by David Davis, who in his interview to BBC claimed that the United Kingdom achieved the perfect conditions for the transfer period, and the deal between the UK and EU will be made for sure, which supported the pound. There will not be a physical border between North Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and North Ireland will stay in the customs union.
Today USD is strengthening due to the hope that China and USA will develop mutually acceptable trade conditions. Both parties preferred the constructive stance in the negotiations. Washington insists that Beijing should decrease automobile import fees, buy a large number of American semiconductors, and allow foreign investors to own controlling stakes in the financial sector companies’ stocks. In this, China is ready to buy semiconductors made in the USA instead of South Korea and Taiwan, and the new rules of Chinese enterprises’ owning by foreign companies will be ready by May.

Support and resistance

The price reached the level of 1.4100 (Murray [7/8]) and can fall to the levels of 1.4038 (Murray [6/8]) and 1.3977 (Murray [5/8]), which is confirmed by pointed down Stochastic and MACD histogram, decreasing in the positive zone. In case of the breakout of the level of 1.4160, the instrument can grow to the levels of 1.4244 (2-months highs) and 1.4282 (Murray [+2/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.4160, 1.4244, 1.4282.
Support levels: 1.4100, 1.4038, 1.3977.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 1.4038, 1.3977 and stop loss near the level of 1.4130.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level 1.4160 with the targets at 1.4244, 1.4282 and stop loss 1.4140.

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

The price of Brent Crude oil reversed around the three-month highs and is now correcting.
According to API, the volume of oil reserves increased by 5.321 million barrels. Tonight the market is waiting for similar data by EIA. Experts await a slight decrease in volumes by 0.287 million barrels, but these forecasts may be erroneous and the pressure on oil prices may continue.
On the one hand, OPEC+ continue to cut oil production in order to rebalance the market. On the other hand, the increase in prices leads to the activation of American shale companies. Meanwhile, the growth in the number of oil rigs in the US, according to Baker Hughes, has resumed: last week, their number was 804 units. And this is far from the limit – in 2014 their number exceeded 1,500 units.
Regarding this, Saudi Arabia offered Russia to continue cooperation in the oil sector after the OPEC+ agreement ends, for another 10-20 years. It is not clear yet whether it will be accepted. The key Russian players expect on the expansion of production. By 2022, Rosneft plans to increase its oil production by 10%, to 250 million tons.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price tests the 68.75 mark (Murray [4/8]) and, when consolidated below it, it can drop to the levels of 67.18 (Murray [3/8]) and 65.62 (Murray [2/8]). Otherwise, growth may resume to 70.31 (Murray [5/8]) and 71.87 (Murray [6/8]). The probability of decline is confirmed by Stochastic, which leaves the overbought zone.
Support levels: 68.75, 67.18, 65.62.
Resistance levels: 70.31, 71.87.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 68.75 mark with targets at 67.18, 65.62 and stop-loss at 69.10.
Long positions may be opened from 69.40 mark with targets of 70.31, 71.87 and the stop-loss at 68.00.

LiteForex: USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, USD strengthened against CAD due to the release of strong US GDP data, which exceeded the investors’ expectations and grew from 2.5% to 2.9%. The visit of the leader of North Korea Kim Jong-un to China supports the US currency, too. The experts consider it as an intention of DPRK to start the dialogue with the world society and with USA via Beijing, in particular. The trade negotiations between the USA and China continue. Trump’s Administration is now reviewing the possibility to restrict Chinese investments in enterprises and technologies, sensitive to the national safety. As a result, the decrease of the US stock market slowed, which, after the rapid fall on Tuesday, affected the dollar positively.
CAD is under additional pressure of the decrease in oil prices and some disagreements of Canada and US relating to NAFTA. The market is waiting for Canadian GDP release at 14:30 (GMT+2), the possibility of the growth of the index restricts the further growth of the pair.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading within the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger Bands, the price range is widened, which reflects the possible development of the upward movement. MACD histogram is around the zero line, its volumes are minimal, and the signal line is directed upwards.
Resistance levels: 1.2930, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3070, 1.3100, 1.3130.
Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2880, 1.2860, 1.2820, 1.2785.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1.3000 and stop loss 1.2880. Implementation period: 1–3 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2860 with the target at 1.2800 and stop loss 1.2915. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

LiteForex: EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Published on Thursday, February data on personal spending remained the same, as expected. On YoY basis, the indicator made up 0.2%, and on a monthly basis 0.4%. Data from the labor market turned out to be more positive for investors: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted 215K, continuing the declining trend (which has started early in March).
Today, the pair is calm: due to Good Friday, many of the financial enterprises are on holiday. The news that the USA President Trump can postpone the implementation of the new Agreement on free trade with South Korea supported the euro insignificantly. This week the countries agreed on a US companies access to South Korean automobile and medicine markets and the abolition of the US fees on the import metals.
The investors are waiting for Monday ISM Manufacturing PMI release. March index is expected to decrease from 60.8 to 60.0 points, which will affect USD negatively.

Support and resistance

The price is trading near the level of 1.2329 (Murray [6/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands). After the breakout the growth to the level of 1.2451 (Murray [8/8]) is possible. Otherwise, the instrument can return to the level of 1.2207 (Murray [4/8]). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Bollinger Bands are pointed horizontally. MACD histogram is near the zero line, its volumes are insignificant. Stochastic is pointed downward but has entered the oversold area, which reflects the possibility of a reversal.
Resistance levels: 1.2329, 1.2451.
Support levels: 1.2207, 1.2150, 1.2085.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2360 with the target at 1.2451 and stop loss around 1.2320.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2285 with the target at 1.2007 and stop loss around 1.2310.

LiteForex: NZD/USD: Murray analysis

On D1 chart, the price tested the 0.7200 mark ([6/8]). This level is seen as key for "bears", as unsuccessful attempts to overcome it continue since February.
Currently, the price is growing again, tending to the level of 0.7263 ([7/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands), and at its breakout quotes may reach the levels of 0.7324 ([8/8], the upper border of Bollinger Bands) and 0.7385 ([+1/8]). The probability of growth is confirmed by Stochastic reversing upwards. Continuation of the decline to the levels of 0.7080 ([4/8]) and 0.7019 ([3/8]) will be possible only if the instrument is consolidated below the 0.7200 mark.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7200 ([6/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]), 0.7019 ([3/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.7263 ([7/8]), 0.7324 ([8/8]), 0.7385 ([+1/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the level of 0.7263 with targets at 0.7324, 0.7385 and stop-loss at 0.7235 mark.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7160 with targets at 0.7080, 0.7019 and stop-loss at 0.7200 mark.

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

On Monday, prices fell sharply, and Brent Crude oil is currently trading around 67.50.
Quotes were pressured by a decision of the Chinese authorities to impose import duties on 128 US products, among which frozen pork, wine, some types of fruit and steel factory goods. Investors knew of the potential retaliatory measures, but there was a hope that their introduction would not happen while Washington and Beijing are conducting trade consultations.
In addition, the instrument is pressured by first Russia's failure since the beginning of the OPEC agreement+ to comply with its terms and exceeding the quotas of oil production. According to the Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak, this was due to increased production of gas condensate due to cold weather and a traditional increase in production before the spring prophylactic works.
In the evening, the market is waiting for the publication of API data on commercial oil reserves in the US. If they grow again, oil prices will continue to decline.

Support and resistance

The technical picture is uncertain. Bollinger Bands have turned down, confirming the downward trend. But Stochastic is reversing in the oversold zone, which indicates a possible upward correction. In the breakout of the 67.96 mark (Murray [7/8]), the instrument can be adjusted to the level of 68.75 (Murray [8/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands). In the breakdown of 67.18 mark (Murray [6/8]), the decline will continue to levels of 66.40 (Murray [5/8]) and 65.62 (Murray [4/8]).
Support levels: 67.18, 66.40, 65.62.
Resistance levels: 67.96, 68.75.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below the level of 67.18 with targets at 66.40, 65.62 and stop-loss at 67.60.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 67.96 with the target at 68.75 and stop-loss at 67.70.

LiteForex: FTSE: technical analysis

FTSE, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is turning down to retest its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

FTSE, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is falling from the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains just below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is about to test from above its longer MA. The Composite is falling as well.

Key levels

Support levels: 6948.0 (local lows), 6915.0 (February lows), 6847.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 7072.0 (local highs), 7100.0 (local highs), 7170.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price has turned downwards, having failed its short-term descending trendline. The fall is likely to continue.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 6948.0, 6915.0, 6847.0 and stop-loss at 7035.0.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7100.0 with the target at 7170.0 and stop-loss at 7072.0.

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Currently, the main drivers for the price movement are news about the US-China trade confrontation. On Friday, quotes of Brent Crude oil fell to the area of 66.60 after the news that the US administration is working on the possibility to impose another import duties on a number of Chinese goods totaling USD 100 billion. The additional pressure on the instrument was provided by the data of Baker Hughes, according to which the number of oil rigs in the United States began to rise and amounted to 808 units.
Today, quotes are trying to correct in view of President Trump statements, which expressed confidence that China will make concessions, a deal on intellectual property issues will be concluded, and both countries "await an excellent future". In addition, prices are supported by the worsening tensions in the Middle East, related to Israeli air strikes against targets in Syria.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price rose above the level of 67.18 (Murray [6/8]). However, sell positions will become relevant only if the instrument is consolidated above the midline of Bollinger Bands. At the same time, quotes may rise to the area of 68.45-68.75. Possible growth is confirmed by Stochastic, which reversed upwards, and MACD histogram, which decreases in the negative zone. If the instrument consolidates below the 67.18 mark, it may lead to a drop to levels of 66.40 (Murray [5/8]) and 65.62 (Murray [4/8]).
Support levels: 67.18, 66.40, 65.62.
Resistance levels: 68.45, 68.75.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the level of 67.50 with targets at 68.45, 68.75 and stop-loss at 67.20.
Short positions will become relevant below 67.18 mark with targets at 66.40, 65.62 and stop-loss at 67.45.