Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) develops, within which the wave v of 1 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v of 1 has developed, and a local correction is forming as the wave (iv) of v of 1. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2340–1.2400. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2069.

USD/CAD: wave analysis

The pair is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level (C) of 4 develops, within which the fifth wave 5 of (C) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 is developing, within which the local correction (iv) of iii is ending. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will fall to the levels of 1.2600–1.2500. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3179.

XAG/USD: silver rises again

Current trend

Silver contract prices began to recover again, trading at $25.7 an ounce.

In December, world prices for precious metals are quite stable and fully reflect the behavior of investors in the markets. In this regard, it is quite convenient to track the future possible movement of an asset by comparing it with the quotes of the VIX volatility index.

Historically, as the VIX rises, tensions rise in the markets, and investors start to actively move into the assets of the metal group, using them as shelter assets. The VIX has been declining since last Friday but yesterday, there was a major reversal, and the index rose sharply from 22.37 points to the current level of 23.31 points. Accordingly, soon, the strengthening of silver quotes is expected, especially since the long weekend is coming.

Support and resistance

On the local chart of the asset, the price moves within the local ascending channel. Inside it, the instrument has reached the support line and is forming a reversal. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal one upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram is in the sell zone but very close to the transition level.

Resistance levels: 26.10, 27.40.
Support levels: 25.10, 23.60.

EUR/USD: wave analysis

The pair is in a correction and may grow.

On the 4-hour chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) develops, within which a downward correction ended as the wave iv of 1, and the fifth wave v of 1 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v has formed, and a local correction is developing as the fourth wave (iv) of v. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2340–1.2400. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2074.

WTI Crude Oil: the price is consolidating

Current trend

The price of WTI crude oil is trading sideways, being at the level of 47.82.

Oil quotes are traded with increased volatility. The external information background has a significant impact on the choice of investors. Thus, the situation with the beginning of vaccination in many countries is undoubtedly a positive factor for the asset. However, the greatest expectations are associated with the OPEC+ meeting, which will be held on January 4. The cartel members plan to consider the possibility of increasing quotas for oil production by 500K barrels per day.

The past week has confirmed the increased interest in contracts from investors. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the number of net speculative positions in crude oil for the first time since August reached 525.7K, which exceeds the 514.6K shown a week earlier.

Support and resistance

On the local chart of the asset, the price continues to trade within the upward channel and is currently consolidating near the key level of 48.00. Technical indicators are in a state of uncertainty. The fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator have crossed with the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 49.00, 53.00.
Support levels: 46.00, 42.50.

AUD/USD: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (1) formed, and a local correction developed as the second wave 2 of (1). Now, the third wave 3 of (1) is developing, within which the wave iii of 3 has formed, and a correction has ended as the wave iv of 3. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 0.7800–0.8100. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7458.

WTI Crude Oil: waiting for new drivers
Current trend

Today during the Asian session, oil prices move flat, trading near $48 per barrel.

The price is moderately supported by the approval of new stimuli for the American economy by US President Donald Trump. They involve direct payments to citizens of $600. Earlier, Trump tried to insist on increasing this amount to $2,000, which was approved in the House of Representatives but the Senate majority blocked the initiative, deciding to put the issue in a separate bill.

Yesterday, quotes were significantly supported by the US EIA report, which reflected a sharp decline in oil reserves for the week of December 25 by 6.1 million barrels after falling by 0.56 million barrels previously. Analysts expected further decrease but hoped for a fall of only 2.58 million barrels. However, the upcoming OPEC meeting, which will be held on January 4, remains a “bearish” factor. It is expected that the cartel will decide to increase oil production by 500K barrels per day.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands grow moderately. The price range narrows from below, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD falls, maintaining a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic grows slightly, approaching the level of 80 and limiting the development of “bullish” sentiment in the ultra-short term.

It is better to wait until the signals from technical indicators are clear.

Resistance levels: 48.52, 48.81, 49.23.

Support levels: 48.00, 47.50, 47.00, 46.13.

BTC/USD: technical analysis

Current trend

Since mid-December, the BTC/USD pair has been moving in an uptrend, constantly renewing historical highs.

Over the past week, the price added over 34% and rose above 34700.00. The asset remains popular with investors due to a difficult global economic situation and deterioration in relations between the United States and China, caused by the delisting of several Chinese companies from the New York Stock Exchange. Experts note that relations between the first two world economies are unlikely to significantly improve under the new American President Joe Biden, and therefore digital assets will remain attractive.

Currently, quotes have slowed down, trading at 34375.00 (Murrey [7/8]), a breakout of which allows further growth to the levels of 37400.00 (Murrey [8/8]) and 40,000.00. The key “bearish” level is 31250.00 (Murrey [6/8]). If the price consolidates below it, a decline to the levels of 28125.00 (Murrey [5/8]) and 25000.00 (Murrey [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands) may follow. Technical indicators point to continued growth. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards. The MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone. Stochastic is in the overbought zone moving horizontally.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 34375.00, 37400.00, 40000.00.
Support levels: 31250.00, 28125.00, 25000.00.

Brent Crude Oil: waiting for OPEC decision

Current trend

Today, during the Asian session, oil prices grow slightly, testing the level of 51.00 for a breakout.

Yesterday, quotes decreased steadily, responding to the complication of the epidemiological situation in Europe, which correlates poorly with the market's plans to gradually increase energy demand. Also, investors fear that OPEC+ will decide to start a gradual increase in oil production. However, yesterday's meeting of the cartel did not lead to any specific decision, and it was decided to continue negotiations on January 5. Most of the OPEC+ countries are in favor of maintaining the current restrictions on production, while the UAE and Russia believe that oil production should be gradually increased.

On Tuesday, investors await the publication of a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of January 1. The previous report showed a steady decline in inventories by 4.875 million barrels.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands reverse into a horizontal plane. The price range narrows, reflecting the ambiguous trading in the short term. MACD falls, maintaining a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic falls but is rapidly approaching the lows, signaling that the instrument may become oversold in the super short term.

It is better to keep the current short positions until the signals from technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 51.07, 52.00, 52.65, 53.26.
Support levels: 50.00, 49.07, 48.40, 47.50.

XAG/USD: the prices are consolidated

Current trend

Silver prices are showing a moderate decline on Wednesday, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. The instrument is still supported by the weak USD, which is waiting for new drivers at the market. US investors are watching Georgia's second round of Senate elections. If at least one Republican candidate wins, the Senate will remain with Mitch McConnell, which will allow Republicans to block the controversial initiatives of Democrat Joe Biden in the next two years. If both positions go to the Democrats, then the final word will remain with US Vice President Kamala Harris.

In turn, the demand for silver is supported against the background of a worsening epidemiological situation in Europe, which threatens with new restrictions. The UK has recently decided on a third full quarantine, since for several weeks the incidence statistics have been setting new records. The speed with which a new strain of coronavirus is being detected in countries around the world is also worrying.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is narrowing, pointing at the ambiguous nature of trading in the ultra-short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps an upward direction but is approaching its highs, which reflects the overbought silver in the ultra-short term.

Existing long positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 27.65, 28.00, 28.50.
Support levels: 27.14, 26.74, 26.27, 25.97.