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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

This is a discussion on Forex News Analysis by LiteForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is again showing gains against USD during today's Asian session, returning to previous record highs, ...

      
   
  1. #1071
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review

    EUR/USD

    EUR is again showing gains against USD during today's Asian session, returning to previous record highs, updated at the end of last week. Market activity remains moderate as investors are in no rush ahead of the publication of minutes from the US Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on Wednesday. Analysts do not expect any significant changes in the vector of monetary policy; however, the comments of officials are more important today than ever. There is a possibility that the Fed representatives will speak out on adjusting the target levels for inflation, given the alarming situation in the economy, as well as touch on the prospects for programs to support the economy, which are now being actively discussed in the Senate. Interesting statistics from Europe will appear only on Thursday, when Germany will report on the dynamics of GDP for Q2 2020, as well as publish the July statistics on unemployment and consumer inflation.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is showing ambiguous trading during today's morning session, close to the highs updated the day before. GBP retains a fairly confident "bullish" trend; however investors prefer to wait for the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting. During the day, a block of macroeconomic statistics will be released in the UK, which, however, is unlikely to have a noticeable impact on the instrument's dynamics. One way or another, analysts expect the publication of the number of Mortgage Approvals in June (their number should increase by 33.9K). In addition, Consumer Credit data will be presented, as well as Net Lending to Individuals, which in May showed a decrease of 3.4B pounds.

    AUD/USD

    AUD has seen marginally gains against USD during today's Asian session, trading near record highs revised a week ago. Buying activity on the instrument is constrained by expectations of the publication of the minutes of the two-day Fed meeting, which, as analysts hope, will clarify the prospects for monetary policy in the near future. The macroeconomic statistics released in Australia today puts additional pressure on the instrument. Trimmed Mean CPI in Q2 2020 decreased by 0.1% QoQ after growing by 0.5% QoQ over the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.1% QoQ. At the same time, Consumer Price Index in Q2 2020 collapsed by 1.9% QoQ after rising by 0.3% QoQ earlier. Analysts expected a decrease of 2% QoQ.

    USD/JPY

    USD shows flat dynamics of trading during today's morning session, remaining near the local lows since mid-March, updated the day before. USD remains under significant pressure amid growing uncertainty associated with increased political risks, as well as the further spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in the country. Today, the activity of "bears" is somewhat reduced, which is associated with the expectation of the publication of the Fed meeting minutes. Analysts do not expect changes in the key interest rate, but they are eager to hear the comments of officials, since at present the country is clearly not coping with the number of economic challenges it faces. Interesting statistics from Japan will appear only on Thursday, when June data on the dynamics of Retail Sales and the volume of investments in the Japanese economy over the past few weeks are released.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are consolidating during today's Asian trading, retreating from record highs, updated the day before. The emergence of corrective dynamics from historical highs is associated with the expectation of the publication of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. In addition, technical factors also contribute to the development of the "bearish" trend, as the instrument has been actively increasing for eight trading sessions in a row. In turn, gold is still feeling significant support in the market. The increasing geopolitical risks, the unstable state of the American economy, as well as high uncertainty about the COVID-19 epidemic are pushing the asset to become a new reserve currency.

  2. #1072
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    EUR/USD: EUR is corrected

    Current trend

    EUR is showing flat dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, trading near record highs updated the day before. The positions of USD came under pressure again yesterday after the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. As expected, the regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy, and at the follow-up press conference, the Chair of the Fed, Jerome Powell, promised to continue using the full range of available instruments to support the national economy. In his speech, Powell also mentioned the volatile labor market, noting that many Americans have yet to lose their jobs.

    European investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from Germany and the eurozone today. Among other things, analysts expect the release of July data on the labor market and the dynamics of consumer inflation in Germany. In addition, data on German GDP for Q2 2020 will be published.

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range expands, freeing a path to new record highs for the "bulls". MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its highs, is trying to reverse downwards, signaling in favor of the development of corrective decline in the ultra-short term.

    The "bearish" trend is likely to appear at the end of the trading week.

    Resistance levels: 1.1804, 1.1850, 1.1900.
    Support levels: 1.1723, 1.1657, 1.1600, 1.1546.

  3. #1073
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    XAU/USD: general review

    Current trend

    Gold prices are showing moderate gains again in trading in today's Asian session, recovering from the correctional decline the day before. On Thursday, the instrument retreated from its record highs and interrupted the historic rally to the level of 2000.00 amid technical factors and corrective sentiment on the US stock markets. In turn, with the opening of the American trading session on Thursday, the pressure on USD began to increase after the publication of disappointing statistics on the annual dynamics of US GDP for Q2 2020. Political risks also intensified after Donald Trump posted a proposal on his Twitter to postpone the presidential elections in the USA due to the difficult epidemiological situation in the country.

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is widening from above, clearing the way for the "bulls" to new all-time highs and the target level of 2000.00. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). For a long time now, Stochastic has been near its highs, trying to reverse into a downward plane. As before, the indicator points at the greatly overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

    It is necessary to wait for clarification of the situation in the market to open new positions. Some of the long positions should be kept for some time.

    Resistance levels: 1980.84, 2000.00.

    Support levels: 1955.00, 1935.00, 1910.00, 1895.06.

  4. #1074
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review

    EUR/USD

    EUR shows flat dynamics of trading during today's Asian session, consolidating after the corrective decline in the instrument at the end of last week. On Friday, after updating record highs since May 2018, EUR fell sharply, which was mainly due to technical factors of taking long profits ahead of the weekend. Additional pressure on EUR positions was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of GDP in the euro zone for Q2 2020. In quarterly terms, GDP showed a 12.1% QoQ decline after a 3.6% QoQ contraction in the prior period. The indicator came out close to its forecasts at 12% QoQ. In annual terms, the decline in GDP in the euro area amounted to 15% YoY, which turned out to be slightly worse than analysts' expectations at the level of 14.5% YoY. In turn, data on consumer inflation in the euro area for July contributed to the strengthening of EUR. Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4% YoY, accelerating from the previous value of 0.3% YoY. Experts expected a slowdown to 0.2% YoY.

    GBP/USD

    GBP demonstrates moderate gains against USD again during today's morning session, returning to the local highs, updated at the end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.10% and is testing the level of 1.3100 for a breakout. The "bullish" activity for the instrument is supported by the weakness of USD, while the fundamental picture for GBP remains unchanged. Investors remain concerned about the uncertainty surrounding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the EU and the UK before the transition deadline at the end of the year. In addition, the UK is showing alarming statistics on the incidence of coronavirus, which puts plans to lift quarantine restrictions in the country into question. At the end of last week, Prime Minister Boris Johnson noted that further lifting of restrictions will inevitably lead to an increase of incidence. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics on business activity in the US and UK Manufacturing sector for July.

    AUD/USD

    AUD is marginally strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from a strong decline late last week as the instrument retreated from its record highs since February 2019. A certain support for AUD is provided by the macroeconomic statistics from Australia, published today. AiG Manufacturing index went up from 51.5 to 53.5 points in July. In the manufacturing sector, according to the Commonwealth Bank, activity rose from 53.4 to 54 points, better than the neutral forecasts. Inflation data from TD Securities in July showed an increase of 0.9% MoM and 1.3% YoY, which turned out to be significantly better than the data for the previous period: +0.6% MoM and +0.7% YoY. Chinese statistics also provided additional support to the instrument. Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.2 to 52.8 in July, beating market forecasts of 51.3.

    USD/JPY

    USD is showing ambiguous trading dynamics against JPY during today's Asian session, trying to develop corrective growth, the momentum for which was formed at the end of last week. Strengthening of USD positions is associated with technical factors, while there are still not many fundamental reasons for USD growth. Friday's statistics from the US again turned out to be heterogeneous, and the greatest support for USD was provided only by the Chicago PMI, which in July rose sharply from 36.6 to 51.9 points, which turned out to be better than expected by 43.9 points. JPY finds some support among macroeconomic publications from Japan. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in July rose from 42.6 to 45.2 points with a neutral forecast. At the same time, the data also reflected the fall of the Japanese economy by 0.6% QoQ and 2.2% YoY in Q2 2020, which, however, did not come as a surprise.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are showing ambiguous dynamics during today's morning session, trading near record highs and a psychological level of 2000.00. The demand for the asset remains high against the background of continuing uncertainty in the market, as well as the progressive weakness of USD. The risks associated with the coronavirus pandemic are not going away and are likely to remain relevant until a resistant vaccine emerges and a widespread vaccination campaign begins. There are also geopolitical tensions on the market associated with the aggravation of relations between the United States and China. The parties continue to exchange mutual sanctions complicating the process of global economic recovery. Domestic political situation in the United States should be taken into account as well. In November, the US presidential election is to take place, which will have to be held in an environment of increased epidemiological risks.

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