Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues strengthening amid falling stock markets and weakening in the US Dollar. The Dollar was pressured by Fed Chair Janet Yellen testimony before the US Congress, after which the probability of further rate hikes significantly decreased. In addition, the head of the regulator stated that rate cuts remain a possibility if the situation requires this measure. And considering declining major macroeconomic indices and low inflation in the country, and the slowing Chinese economy, a possibility of this scenario exists.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.1224.
Resistance levels: 1.1321.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1224 with the target at 1.1380 and stop-loss at 1.1185.

XAU/USD: growth will continue

Current trend
Since the beginning of this year, the price of gold substantially strengthened.
The price was significantly supported by a crash of the world stock markets that reduced the appetite for risk and forced investors to switch into safe-haven assets, such as gold.
In addition, the price was supported by the weakened US Dollar that remains under pressure due to the significantly lowered probability of further monetary policy tightening in the US this year.

Support and resistance
In the beginning of the month, the price broke out the upper border of a descending channel. In the short-term, a downward correction to the levels of 1174.50, 1153.85 is expected, after which a growth will resume.
Technical indicators suggest a growth continuation in the medium-term. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Ichimoku point out to the growth as well.
Support levels: 1207.65, 1198.70, 1194.00, 1186.85, 1174.05, 1153.85, 1145.10.
Resistance levels: 1213.85, 1224.70, 1235.05, 1242.80, 1257.80, 1264.00.

Trading tips
Pending buy orders can be placed at the levels of 1186.85, 1153.85, 1145.10 with the target at 1300.00 and stop-loss at 1120.00.

GBP/USD: triangle has been formed; breakout of the upper border is expected

Current trend

During several months, the British Pound was falling against the US Dollar. However, at the beginning of February, the GBP/USD pair started growing within a narrow ascending channel and reached the key resistance level of 1.4670. For the last few days, the pair has been trading in a sideways channel and forming a triangle pattern.

Today, ahead of the macroeconomic releases, the Pound gained support and strengthened to the upper border of the triangle. However, later on, amid negative data on Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index, released in the UK, the pair fell to the lower border. Key statistics for the UK and the US which might influence dynamics in the pair are due tomorrow and at the end of the trading week.

Support and resistance

If the lower border of the triangle is broken down, the pair would fall to 1.4180. In case of favorable data on the UK, the price might overcome the upper border and continue growing to 1.4670 and 1.4775.

According to technical indicators, the pair is likely to keep moving up. The price reached the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD shows that volumes of short positions are falling.

Support levels: 1.4425, 1.4335, 1.4285, 1.4180, 1.4100, 1.4050, 1.3970.
Resistance levels: 1.4510, 1.4565, 1.4600, 1.4670, 1.4740, 1.4775, 1.4915, 1.5020.

Trading tips

Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.4390 with the target at 1.4290 and stop-loss at 1.4420.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.4530 with the target at 1.4630 and stop-loss at 1.4500.

Brent: general analysis

Current trend

Top oil producers – Russia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela – have agreed to freeze oil output at 11 January level. This decision might help to tackle an oversupply of the global oil market. Thus, the price of oil has its chance to strengthen to $40 per barrel. However, at the same time, there is a lack of clear understanding of how long the agreement will last and whether the countries will strictly follow all its conditions.

Support and resistance

The price is trading slightly below the MA200.
The nearest support level is at 32.00.
The nearest resistance level is at 32.50.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 32.00 with the target at 30.47 and stop-loss at 32.20.

AUD/JPY: Australian Dollar resumed growth

Current trend

Yesterday the pair strengthened amid growing prices for commodities.
Supportive news that hit the markets yesterday were that Iran agreed to the proposal by few OPEC member-countries to freeze current output levels of oil. The country, however, did not specify the dates when restrictions will come into effect.
At the same time, the Yen remains under pressure after the last week’s rally as investors are worrying that the Bank of Japan may intervene in the market should the Yen continues strengthening.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a quite strong buy signal. Stochastic reached the overbought zone and trying to turn down.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 81.00 (local low), 80.34 (local low), 80.00, 79.20, 77.57 (11 February low).
Resistance levels: 82.06 (local high), 82.41 (16 February high), 83.00, 83.62, 84.46, 85.00 (4 February high), 85.69, 86.00, 86.35 (29 January high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 82.06 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 83.50, 84.50, 85.00 and stop-loss at 81.00. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 80.34 with targets at 78.00, 77.50 and stop-loss at 81.00. Validity – 2-4 days.

AUD/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

During the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair fell to the level of 0.7100. The Australia Dollar was losing its positions after RBA board member John Edwards stated the national currency is too strong. In his opinion, a more comfortable level for the AUD/USD pair would be 0.6500.

The Australian currency came under pressure amid the publication of labour market report. In January, Unemployment Rate in Australia was slightly up to 6.0% from 5.8%; Employment Change fell by 7.9K while analysts forecasted a 15K rise.
Today, attention needs to be paid to data on inflation in the US. Consumer Price Index is expected to remain unchanged. In case of a growth in the indicator, the USD might strengthen.

Support and resistance

At present, the pair is trying to break down the level of 0.7100. The Bulls are getting less active.
Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.7000.
Resistance levels: 0.7240, 0.7180, 0.7140.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7090 with targets at 0.7050, 0.7000 and stop-loss at 0.7110.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7140 with the target at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7110.

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair continues falling. The European currency is under pressure from Germany’s macroeconomic releases. IFO Expectations indicator came below the forecast, having fallen to 98.8 points. The statistics have raised concern that the eurozone’s largest economy is experiencing a slowdown.
Today, attention needs to be paid to data on Consumer Confidence, due in the US. If the indicator exceeds 97 points, the Euro is likely to continue its decline.

Support and resistance

RSI has reached the 30 level, indicating the price is approaching the overbought zone and can turn down from the current levels 1.0990-1.0970.
The nearest support level is 1.0991.
The nearest resistance level is 1.1052.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0980 with the target at 1.0950 and stop-loss at 1.1000.

AUD/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

During the Asian session, the AUD fell to the level of 0.7170. The pair was moving down amid the publication of macroeconomic data on Australia.
In particular, analysts expected Wage Price Index to remain unchanged both on the quarterly and annual bases. However, the index was down to 0.5% from 0.6% and to 2.2% from 2.3%, respectively. The indicator of Construction Work Done fell by 3.6% in the fourth quarter against an expected decline by 2.0%.

Support and resistance

The pair continues trading within an ascending channel. The price rebounded down from the upper border 0.7240 and tested the level of 0.7170. Trading volumes have fallen that indicates the Bears are getting less active.
Support levels: 0.7170, 0.7140, 0.796.
Resistance levels: 0.7240, 0.7300, 0.7400.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7170 with targets at 0.7140, 0.7100 and stop-loss at 0.7200.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7240 with targets at 0.7300, 0.7400 and stop-loss at 0.7210.

EUR/JPY: pair remains under pressure

Current trend

The European currency is losing positions against the Japanese Yen amid a very low appetite for risk. On Wednesday, the pair reached its lows since April 2013, having fallen to the level of 122.45.
The Euro came under moderate pressure from recent macroeconomic data. In particular, France’s Consumer Confidence fell to 95 in February from 97 that is the lowest reading for the last six months.
At the same time, Japan’s statistics did not manage to support the national currency. Thus, Coincident Index was down to 110.9 points in December from 111.9 points.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is directed down. The price range tends to narrow down reflecting correctional dynamics in the pair. MACD has started growing but is still keeping a sell signal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and trying to turn up indicating an upward correction in the pair.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 123.57, 123.06 (23 February low), 122.45 (24 February low).
Resistance levels: 124.22, 125.00, 125.77, 126.16, 126.62 (18 February level), 127.30, 128.17 (16 February high), 128.75, 129.13.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the consolidation above the level of 125.00 with targets at 126.60, 127.00 and stop-loss at 124.20. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened if the price turns down at the level of 125.00 with the target at 122.45 and stop-loss at 125.50. Validity – 2-3 days.

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues trading in a downward trend having lost around 2% of the value since the beginning of the year.

The Pound is substantially pressured by the possibility of a British exit from the European Union. The pressure was magnified because of the statements by the number of UK’s politicians who supported the decision to leave the EU. Current situation is likely to last until 23 June when the referendum on the matter is due in the UK.

In addition, the pair is pressured by significantly lowered probability of monetary policy tightening in the UK due to weak macroeconomic statistics that come out in the country lately.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1.3876.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.4059.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.4059 with the target at 1.3876 and stop-loss at 1.4100.