Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Today the oil price is trying to grow from the level of 70.31, where it was corrected to on Friday after the Energy Minister of UAE Suhail Al Mazrouei noted that OPEC represented by UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia can balance the restriction of Iranian “black gold” supply. The decrease of supply in the market after the implementation of US sanctions against Iran is now estimated within the range of 0.5–1.5 million barrel per day.
The market ignored Baker Hughes Rig Count release, which increased from 834 to 844 units last week. As the prices have significantly increased, the strengthening of American shale oil production is not surprising.
Iranian authorities are trying to keep its share of oil market: Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has visited China. The experts suppose the parties to negotiate upon the supplies after US sanctions implementation.

Support and resistance

The price strengthens at the level of 70.31 (Murray [+1/8]). Stochastic, reversing in the oversold area, restricts the growth. The consolidation of the price below the level of 70.31 will let it fall to the levels of 69.53 (Murray [5/8], H4) and 68.75 (Murray [8/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands). If the price cannot consolidate above the level of 71.10 (Murray [7/8], H4) the growth to the levels of 71.87 (Murray [+2/8]) and 72.65 (Murray [+1/8], H4) is possible.
Resistance levels: 71.10, 71.87, 72.65.
Support levels: 70.30, 69.53, 68.75.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 70.31 with the targets at 69.53, 68.75 and stop loss near the level of 70.60.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 71.10 with the targets at 71.87, 72.65 and stop loss 70.80.
Implementation period: 5–7 days.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Since the beginning of the month, the pair trades within the sideways channel 1.3610–1.3458 (Murray [6/8]–[1/8], Н4).
UK employment statistic was mixed. The unemployment level stays record low –4.2%. Average Earning Including Bonus has grown by 2.9% during the last 2 months, which has exceeded the inflation growth of the period (2.7%). On the other hand, the growth rate of Average Earnings Excluding Bonus decreased from 2.8% to 2.6%.
British economy is slowing after significant growth, which the Deputy Governor of the BoE Ben Broadbent confirmed in his interview for Daily Telegraph and due to the unclear situation about Brexit. Until the Summer EU Summit, UK must publish its plan of the relations with EU development during the transitional period. However, the British governing parties are not able to agree. On Tuesday, the Scottish Parliament rejected London Brexit low, as it restricts the rights of local parliamentarians.

Support and resistance

The price is tending to the lower border of the channel, but the fall is possible after consolidation below the level of 1.3427 (Murray [–2/8]), and the “bearish” targets will be at 1.3310 (the lower border of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3200. After the breakout of 1.3550 (Murray [–1/8]) the correction to the level of 1.3671 (Murray [0/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. The indicators reflect the fall. Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are pointed downwards. MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3671.
Support levels: 1.3427, 1.3310, 1.3200.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3427 with the targets at 1.3310, 1.3200 and stop loss 1.3470.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3550 with the target at 1.3671 and stop loss around 1.3510.
Implementation period: 5–7 days.

LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: Murrey analysis

This week, the price of WTI Crude oil continued to grow and is now testing the 71.87 mark ([6/8]). Its breakout will give the prospect of further growth to the levels of 73.43 ([7/8]) and 75.00 ([8/8]). Technical indicators generally confirm the development of an uptrend: Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, and MACD histogram grows in the positive zone; Stochastic is directed downwards, but it makes a reversal attempt.
In the price fails to consolidate above 71.87, correction to the mid-range of Bollinger Bands (69.53) or to the mid-range of the Murray trade range (68.75 [4/8]) is possible. But so far this scenario seems less probable.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 70.31 ([5/8]), 69.53 ([1/8], H4), 68.75 ([4/8]).
Resistance levels: 71.87 ([6/8]), 73.43 ([7/8]), 75.00 ([8/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the 71.87 mark with targets at 73.43, 75.00 and the stop-loss at 71.20.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 71.00 with targets at 70.31, 69.53 and the stop-loss at 71.50.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

Last week, the pair was declining, and by now the price has fallen below the level of 1.3427 (Murray [2/8]).
The current week will be full of important statistics that will allow investors to assess whether the British economy is able to begin recovery or will it continue the slowdown, which was recently talked about by Ben Broadbent, the deputy head of the Bank of England. On Wednesday, April data on inflation will be published. It is expected that the consumer price index will continue to decline and will amount to 2.3%. If the forecast is confirmed, the regulator can further delay the decision to raise the interest rate; however, taking into account the recent growth in wages, the purchasing power of British households will increase. Retail sales index in February promises to grow from 1.1% to 1.4%, and GDP - from 1.2% to 1.3%.
Positive economic statistics may be offset by the Brexit negotiations. So far, the issues of the Irish border and membership in the customs union remain open and do not have a solution even within the ruling cabinet.

Support and resistance

Currently, the instrument is below 1.3427 mark and may continue to decline to levels of 1.3300 (Murray [1/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3183 (Murray [0/8]). If the price consolidates above 1.3550 mark, growth may continue to 1.3680.
Technical indicators show decline: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are pointing down, MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.
Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3183.
Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3550, 1.3671.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.3385 with targets at 1.3305, 1.3183 and stop-loss at 1.3430.
Long positions may be opened above 1.3550 mark with the target at 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3510.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is testing from below its longer MA. The Composite is growing, having broken out its longer MA.

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI turned down just below the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is falling, having broken down its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 16.35 (local lows), 16.05 (March lows), 15.95 (April lows).
Resistance levels: 16.75 (March highs), 16.95 (local highs), 17.05 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price keeps trading in a sideways channel. There is a chance of a downward correction.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 16.35 with targets at 16.05, 15.95 and stop-loss at 16.55. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 16.75 with targets at 16.95, 17.05 and stop-loss at 16.60. Validity – 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

On Wednesday, weak inflation data had pressured the British currency. The consumer price index continued to decline for the third month in a row and in April amounted to 2.4%. The basic consumer price index fell more strongly than expected and amounted to 2.1%. The Office of National Statistics of Great Britain notes that the decrease in inflation could be more significant, but it was compensated by the increase in the cost of fuel, the price of which reached a maximum for 3.5 years. Rapid approximation of the inflation rate to the target (2.0%) removes the need to raise the interest rate from the Bank of England. Under the current conditions, many market participants are waiting for it not earlier than by autumn.
Today, the price reversed around 1.3305 (Murray [2/8]) and entered the correction due to positive April Retail Sales, which grew more than expected, and reached 1.6% MoM and 1.4% YoY. However, it is due to the sale of gasoline and Internet sales, as store sales remained the same.

Support and resistance

The key “bullish” level is 1.3427 (Murray [2/8], middle line of Bollinger bands). The breakout will let the price grow to 1.3488 (Murray [5/6]) and 1.3550 (Murray [6/8]). Otherwise, the price can return to 1.3305 (Murray [2/8]) and fall to 1.3244 (Murray [1/8]). Technical indicators reflect the increase. Stochastic is directed upwards, MACD decreases in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3488, 1.3550.
Support levels: 1.3366, 1.3305, 1.3244.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3366 with the targets at 1.3305, 1.3244, and stop loss 1.3400.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 1.3427 with the targets at 1.3488, 1.3550 and stop loss 1.3400.
Implementation period: 5–7 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, the pair correctionally grew and is now trying to consolidate above the level of 1.1718. USD is under pressure of canceling the US-DPRK summit, moreover, next week new sanctions may be imposed on DPRK. However, EUR is unstable due to the Italian and Spanish government crisis. The Socialist Party of Spain is ready to vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, whose advisers are accused of corruption.
Investors continue to follow the development of US-China trade disputes. The recent agreements on the mutual suspension of duties and of the US trade deficit with the US 200 billion aroused serious criticism in the US Congress. The Donald Trump to declare that the trade agreement with the PRC could be changed since it is difficult to verify its results. Market participants saw in this the possibility of a breakdown of the transaction. In addition, the US currency is weakened due to the data. There are fears that the following duties on metals, the president's administration and the trade war (this time with Germany, Japan, and South Korea) will get a new round.

Support and resistance

The consolidation above 1.1718 (Murray [2/8]) will let the price grow to the levels of 1.1840 (Bollinger bands’ middle line), 1.1900. However, the indicators reflect the strength of sellers, so the decline to 1.1596 (Murray [–1/8]) and 1.1540 is possible. Bollinger bands are pointed down, MACD is growing in the negative zone, Stochastic is reversing downwards.
Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1840, 1.1900.
Support levels: 1.1657, 1.1596, 1.1540.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level 1.1657 with the targets at 1.1596, 1.1540 and stop loss 1.1690.
Long positions can be opened at the level 1.1780 with the targets at 1.1840, 1.1900 and stop loss 1.1740.

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

On D1 chart, the instrument is testing the level of 109.37 ([6/8]), but cannot consolidate below it. If this happens, the price can reach the levels of 108.60 ([-2/8] on H4, the lower line of Bollinger Bands) and 107.81 ([5/8]). For the "bulls", the 110.00 is seen as the key level (in the midline of Bollinger Bands). If the instrument consolidates above it, further growth is likely to the level of 110.93 ([7/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands).
Technical indicators show decline: MACD histogram is declining in the positive zone; Stochastic is pointing down but has approached the oversold zone, so a reverse and the formation of a signal to an upward correction are likely.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 109.37 ([6/8]), 108.60 ([-2/8], H4), 107.81 ([5/8]).
Resistance levels: 110.00 (the midline of Bollinger Bands), 110.93 ([7/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 109.37 with targets at 108.60 и 107.81 and the stop-loss at 109.70.
Long positions may be opened if the price reverses, from the level of 110.00, with the target at 110.93 and the stop-loss at 109.70.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.

LiteForex analitics. AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

This week, Australian investors are focused on the poor national building sector data, as housing prices in many cities are declining, especially in Sydney (2.3%) and Melbourne (1.3%). On Wednesday, Building Permits data will be released, which can decrease by 3% in April, reflecting, that the prices are falling and construction companies would not open new deals.
The Australian Monetary Authority is still calm. Officials of the RBA, including its head Philip Lowe, have repeatedly noted that there is no need to correct the monetary policy. However, further tightening of the interest rate may put additional pressure on property prices and negatively affect the Australian economy in general. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held next week.

Support and resistance

Since the end of April, the price has been moving within the sideways range of 0.7568–0.7446 (Murray [4/8]–[2/8], the lower border of Bollinger bands). The price is now testing the level of 0.7507 (Murray [3/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands) and then will move to the lower border of the sideways range, according to the indicators. Stochastic is directed downward, MACD histogram is set in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 0.7568, 0.7629.
Support levels: 0.7507, 0.7446, 0.7385.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level 0.7507 with the targets at 0.7446, 0.7385 and stop loss around 0.7530.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7568 with the target at 0.7629 and stop loss 0.7530.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Wednesday, EUR attempted a correction in view of positive German data on unemployment and retail sales.
In April, the growth in retail sales significantly exceeded forecasts and amounted to 2.3%. In May, the unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 5.2%. The strengthening could be short-lived, as the political crisis in Italy continues to worsen. The new government, which should be formed by Carlo Cottarelli, is unlikely to receive the approval of the parliament, which will lead to new elections in September. Eurosceptics can gain enough votes to form a government again, and they may offer a way out of the EU.
American investors are now following the development of the US-China trade conflict and the publication of data on US GDP. On Tuesday, Donald Trump said he could impose additional duties of USD 50 billion to pressure China in the new round of negotiations. PRC’s authorities confirmed the determination to defend their economic positions. US GDP in Q1 is likely to remain at the same level of 2.3%.
Support and resistance


The consolidation of the price above 1.1657 (Murray [5/8], H4) will give the prospect of growth to 1.1718 (Murray [0/8]) and 1.1780 (the midline of Bollinger Bands). A breakdown of 1.1540 (Murray [1/8], H4) will lead to a decrease to 1.1474 (Murray [-2/8]) and 1.1413 (Murray [-1/8], H4).
Technical indicators give ambiguous signals: Bollinger Bands are pointing down, MACD histogram grows in the negative zone, Stochastics is preparing to leave the oversold zone and form a buy signal.
Support levels: 1.1596, 1.1474, 1.1413.
Resistance levels: 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1780.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from 1.1540 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1413 and stop-loss at 1.1580.
Buy positions may be opened above 1.1657 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1780 and stop-loss at 1.1620.