Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. CAC: technical analysis

CAC, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is approaching the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is about to test from below its longer MA.

CAC, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is correcting down from the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is testing from above its longer MA. The Composite is about to test its longer MA as well.

Key levels

Support levels: 5300.0 (local lows), 5285.0 (local lows), 5265.0 (November 2017 lows).
Resistance levels: 5400.0 (local highs), 5435.0 (local highs), 5500.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The fall is likely to continue.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 5300.0, 5285.0, 5265.0 and stop-loss at 5375.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 5435.0 with the target at 5500.0 and stop-loss at 5400.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: the dollar is growing

Current trend

USD moderately rose against JPY on Thursday, continuing to develop an uptrend formed earlier this week. The instrument was strengthened due to technical factors, as well as weakened JPY at the backdrop of pessimistic statistics from Japan.
MoM Retail Trade fell to –1.7% in May from 1.4% a month earlier. YoY index fell to 0.6% in May from 1.5% a month earlier.
Today, the pair is also declining, despite the publication of optimistic statistics from Japan. Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) grew by 0.7% in June after the growth to 0.5% a month earlier, with the forecast of +0.6%. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to a record 2.2% in May against 2.5% earlier. Industrial production (YoY) grew by 4.2% which turned out to be significantly better than previous value of +2.6% and the forecast of +1.1%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range slightly widens from above and limiting the further development of "bullish" trend. MACD indicator is growing keeping a new buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction, but is approaching its maximum values, which signals an overbought dollar.
Current indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend in the short term.
Resistance levels: 110.77, 111.00, 111.38.
Support levels: 110.47, 110.25, 110.00, 109.76.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 110.77. Take-profit — 111.38 or 111.50. Stop-loss — 110.50. Implementation period: 2 days.
A rebound from the level of 110.77, as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 110.50 or 110.47, may become a signal for corrective sales with the target at 110.00. Stop-loss — 110.70 or 110.80. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

At the beginning of the week, the pair is declining, and it is now trading around 1.1630. Today’s EU Markit Manufacturing PMI slightly decreased from 55.0 to 54.9 points.
EUR is under pressure of German government crisis. Leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU) Horst Seehofer intends to leave the post of Internal Minister in Merkel’s government, as he does not agree with the Chancellor's migration policy. CSU members insist on tightening the fight against illegal migration, up to the ban on new migrants entering the country.
On Monday, negotiations between the leaders of the CSU and CDU (Christian Democratic Union, Angela Merkel) are planned to find a compromise in the migration issue. The failure can lead to the disintegration of the German ruling coalition, which will inevitably weaken EUR.

Support and resistance

The price is testing the midline of Bollinger bands 1.1670 (D1) and cannot consolidate above it. In case of German government crisis worsening, the instrument can fall to the levels of 1.1540 (May’s lows area) and 1.1474 (Murrey [–2/8]). The breakout of the midline of Bollinger bands and the level of 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) will let the price grow to the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8], the upper border of Bollinger bands). Technical indicators confirm the possibility of growth. Stochastic turns up, MACD histogram decreases in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840.
Support levels: 1.1540, 1.1474.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1718 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss 1.1670.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.1600 with the targets at 1.1540, 1.1474 and stop loss around 1.1640.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

On Tuesday, oil prices grew and reached 73.35, but the market is influenced by ambiguous factors.
The risks of Libya oil supply interruptions support the instrument. Yesterday, the representatives of the Libyan National Oil Corp announced that the shipment from a number of ports is unavailable, so the reduction of production in the country by 850,000 barrels per day is expected. On the other hand, the price is under pressure of the United Arab Emirates government's statement that the country has the opportunity to significantly increase production to prevent a supply shortage in the market. Previously, Saudi Arabia said the same thing. Thus, the expected by the end of the year, Iran "black gold" export decrease will be balanced by other OPEC members’ production growth.
In the evening, investors are waiting for API Crude Oil Stocks change release. If the index falls, it will affect the price negatively.

Support and resistance

The key "bullish" level is 73.43 (Murrey [7/8]). After the breakout, the price can grow to 75.00 (Murrey [8/8]). Otherwise, a downward correction to 71.87 (the lower line of Bollinger bands, Murrey [6/8]) and 70.31 (Murrey [5/8]) is expected.
Technical indicators do not exclude the fall possibility. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. Stochastic entered the overbought zone and can reverse. MACD decreases in the positive zone.
Resistance levels: 73.43, 75.00.
Support levels: 71.87, 70.31.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level 72.80 with the targets at 71.87, 70.31 and stop loss 73.40.
Long positions can be opened when the price is set above the level of 73.43 with the target at 75.00 and stop loss around 72.80.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

This week, the pair is corrected downwards due to weak economic statistics from Japan.
Tankan Large Manufacturing Index in Q2 2018 dropped from 24 to 21 points and Manufacturing PMI in June dropped from 53.1 to 53.0 points.
Also, JPY is under pressure of the decision of the People's Bank of China not to use the yuan as a weapon in the trade war with the US. This was announced by the head of the Chinese regulator Yi Gang. In general, the potential to strengthen JPY as a safe haven asset remains, especially if the US-China trade conflict continues to worsen.
In addition, on Wednesday, the Japanese Bank of Japan board member Yutaka Harada addressed the leaders of Japanese business. The official noted that the current level of unemployment in the country (2.2%) is too high and to achieve inflation level of 2.0% it is necessary to further reduce it. Therefore, the Bank of Japan intends to continue soft monetary policy.

Support and resistance

The price has fallen to the midline of Bollinger Bands to 110.15. The breakdown of this level will give the prospect of further decline to 109.37 (Murrey [4/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands) and 108.59 (Murrey [5/8]). This possibility is indicated by Stochastic which has left the overbought area. The key to the "bulls" is 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]), which was tested unsuccessfully in May. Consolidation of the price above it will cause an increase to 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [8/8]).
Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.59.
Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50.

Trading tips

Buy positions can be opened above 110.93 with targets at 111.72, 112.50 and stop-loss at 110.50.
Sell positions may be opened below 110.15 with targets at 109.37, 108.59 and stop-loss at 110.40.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

GBP continues strengthening due to positive economic statistics and is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]).
Wednesday's data on the Services PMI in the UK proved to be strong and strengthened GBP. In June, the indicator reached the 8-month maximum at 55.1 points. According to experts, this could lead to GDP growth by 0.4% in the UK in Q2 2018 and push the Bank of England to increase the interest rate at an August meeting. However, for such a decision, inflation in the country should be above the target level of 2.0%. Currently, this indicator continues to decline and has already reached the level of 2.4%.
The situation with Brexit remains controversial. Theresa May's Cabinet developed a new plan for customs cooperation with the EU. According to it, after leaving the EU, Britain will be able to set its own tariffs on imported goods while transit products going to the EU through the UK territory will have to be taxed by the EU duties.

Support and resistance

The price is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of growth to 1.3305 (Murrey [6/8]), 1.3366 (Murrey [7/8]). The key level for the "bears" seems to be 1.3183 (Murrey [2/8]), midline of Bollinger Bands). If it is broken down, the price may decline to 1.3122 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.3061 (Murrey [2/8]). Technical indicators don’t provide a clear signal. Stochastic has reversed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.3366, 1.3305.
Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3122, 1.3183.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened from 1.3260 with targets at 1.3305, 1.3366 and stop-loss at 1.3220. Sell positions may be opened from 1.3183 with targets at 1.3122, 1.3061 and stop-loss at 1.3220.
Implementation time: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Today, US trade duties on goods produced in China came into effect, totaling USD 34 billion. According to experts, the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy will be noticeable in 3-6 months and may lead to a 0.2% decrease in its growth. Now investors are waiting for the official reaction of the Chinese authorities, in particular, the press conference of the Premier of the State Council of the PRC, Li Keqiang. Beijing's response may be symmetric, but the US administration warned that if the conflict escalated, it could introduce additional duties on Chinese goods totaling USD 500 billion.
In the evening, investors expect the publication of data on Nonfarm payrolls in the US. The indicator can decline from 223K to 195K. Thursday's statistics on ADP Employment Change also proved to be weak: in June the indicator dropped from 189K to 177K.
Support and resistance


The price is testing 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and in case of consolidation above it the price can reach the levels of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]). A breakdown of the midline of Bollinger Bands at 1.1650 will give the prospect of a decline to the level of 1.1530 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands). Indicators show growth. Stochastic is directed upwards, and MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.1650, 1.1530.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.1718 with target at 1.1840 and stop-loss at 1.1670.
Sell positions may be opened above the level of 1.1650 with target at 1.1530 and stop-loss at 1.1690.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Today, the pair is trading near the midline of Bollinger Bands (D1) at 110.50.
Today, at the meeting of the heads of the Bank of Japan regional branches, Haruhiko Kuroda spoke. In general, the head of the Japanese regulator confirmed his opinion that a soft monetary policy should be continued until inflation stabilizes at 2.0%.
This week, investors will focus on the development of the US-China trade conflict and the publication of June inflation data in the US. The trade war leads to instability in the world economy and can force the Fed to lower the hike of interest rate increase. The index of inflation promises to remain above the target level of 2.0% for the fourth consecutive month, which indicates the restoration of the American economy and the need to normalize monetary policy.

Support and resistance

Now the price is at the middle line of the Bollinger bands at 110.50. The key for the "bears" is 110.15 (Murrey [5/8]). If it is broken down, a further decrease to 109.37 (Murrey [4/8]) and 108.59 (Murrey [3/8]) is likely. Long positions will become relevant if the price consolidates above the level of 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]), which was tested unsuccessfully this year. In this case, the target of the "bulls" will be 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [8/8]).
Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone. Stochastic is directed downwards.
Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.59.
Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50.

Trading tips

Buy positions can be opened above 110.93 with target at 111.72, 112.50 and stop-loss at 110.50.
Sell positions may be opened from 110.15 with targets at 109.37, 108.59 and stop-loss at 110.60.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair moved in different directions: poor June US employment market data affected it negatively, but as the tough rhetoric did not develop after the US-China trade taxes implementation, USD did not fall further.
On Monday, ECB officials commented on the current economic situation. The head of the regulator, Mario Draghi in the European Parliament noted the growing role of protectionism in the world trade and expressed hope for EU consumer prices growth. In Zurich, ECB board member Ewald Nowotny expressed his fear that the US-China trade war could turn into a currency one. Earlier, the head of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang claimed the intention not to use the Yuan as a weapon in trade disputes, but the market was not satisfied.
Today, the traders focus on EU and German ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment release, which is expected to decline: from –16.1 to –18.0 points in Germany and from 12.6 to –13.2 points in EU. The growth of pessimism is due to EU, China and the USA trade conflict.

Support and resistance

The price grew above 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and can move to 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]), tested in May. A breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands around 1.1650 will let the price return to 1.1540. Indicators’ readings are ambiguous. Stochastic reverses in the overbought zone. MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1962.
Support levels: 1.1718, 1.1650, 1.1540.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from 1.1780 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss at the level of 1.1740.
Short positions can be opened below 1.1650 with the target at 1.1540 and the stop loss around 1.1690.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review


Current trend

At the beginning of the week, the pair sharply corrected to the area of 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]), as a result of permutations in the British government.
Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson left office. They protested against the new plan by Theresa May, according to which a free trade area with uniform rules for industrial and agricultural goods, subject to European trade rules, should be established between the EU and Great Britain.
Currently, the pair has ambiguous dynamics. GBP is under pressure by weak statistics on the volume of industrial production. The value of the indicator YoY grew by 0.8% with the forecast of 1.9%, and MoM it dropped by 0.4%.
USD is under pressure after the US administration announced plans to introduce a new 10% duty on Chinese goods totaling USD 200B, which may enter into force on August 30. The Chinese authorities called this step of the US totally unacceptable and threatened with retaliatory measures and proceedings within the WTO.

Support and resistance

The price is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of price growth to 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]), 1.3122 (Murrey [3/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 1.3305 (Murrey [6/8]). If it is broken out, the growth to 1.3366 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.3427 (Murrey [8/8]) is possible.
Technical indicators show the decline development. Stochastic has reversed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.3244, 1.3183, 1.3122.
Resistance levels: 1.3305, 1.3366.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 1.3244 with targets at 1.3183, 1.3122 and stop-loss at 1.3280.
Buy positions can be opened above the level of 1.3305 with target at 1.3366, 1.3427 and stop-loss at 1.3260.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.