Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

The USD/JPY pair is growing amid a fall in Retail Sales in Japan. The index fell by 1.1% on a month-to-month basis and by 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. Large Retailers’ Sales declined by 3.6% that was significantly worse than a forecasted fall of 1.8%.

Today attention needs to be paid to data on the GDP for the second quarter of the year in the US. According to forecasts, the index will increase by 0.2%, which could support the US Dollar.

Support and resistance

The pair is trying to break out a resistance level at 101.43 that is formed of the moving average with a 100 period.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is trading above the upper line of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is about to enter the positive zone. Stochastic reached the overbought zone.
Support levels: 101.20, 100.60, 100.15.
Resistance levels: 101.40, 101.80, 102.30, 102.68, 103.00, 103.50, 114.15.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 101.40 with targets at 101.80, 102.30 and stop-loss at 101.20. Validity – 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 101.10 with the target at 100.60 and stop-loss at 101.30. Validity – 1-3 days.
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XAU/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Today the price of gold strengthened amid growing worries on the market.
Anxiety growth was caused by the situation around Deutsche Bank. In September, the US government accused the biggest German investment bank of wrongdoing with the mortgage-back securities. The US Department of Justice can fine the bank $14 billion that lead to its share prices drop of 7% at the opening of the trade. As Deutsche Bank is one of the 29 biggest banks in the world, it problems could affect all financial markets thus investors are switching their funds into safe-havens, such as gold.

Support and resistance

The price is consolidating near the lower border of the ascending channel. Amid low trading volumes, the price is likely to reverse up towards the levels of 1330.00, 1340.00, and 1350.0.
Support levels: 1330.00, 1340.00, 1350.00.
Resistance levels: 1319.53, 1312.00, 1306.40.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1319.00 with the target at 1312.00 and stop-loss at 1323.00.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1330.00 with the target at 1340.00 and stop-loss at 1325.00.
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BRENT: technical analysis

BRENT, D1

The instrument is testing the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which may suggest an attempt of price correction. The indicator is directed upwards while the price range is getting larger. MACD is located near the zero point. Stochastic has moved to the overbought zone and is trying to reverse. If it does so, a signal to sell may be formed.

BRENT, H4

The instrument is trading in the upper band of the indicator on H4 chart while the indicator is directed upwards. MACD is located in the positive zone; its volumes have reached record highs and start decreasing. Stochastic is undergoing correction near a border of the overbought zone. On the whole, indicators suggest that the price may continue dropping smoothly.

Key levels

Support levels: 47.66, 48.22, 48.46, 48.78, 48.95, 49.33, 49.49, 49.72, 49.90, 50.13, 50.37.
Resistance levels: 50.86, 51.04, 51.24.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at current price with targets at 49.75, 49.30 and Stop Loss at 50.80. This recommendation would be valid for 1-3 days.
Long positions can be opened from a level of 50.85 with targets of 51.25, 51.50 and Stop Loss at 50.60. This recommendation would be valid for 1-3 days.
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GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues falling amid weakening in the Pound after the statement from UK’s Prime Minister Theresa May that the process of county’s departure from the EU will be started in March 2017. In addition, the pair is pressured by growing expectations of an interest rate hike by the American regulator before the end of the year.
This week, extra attention needs to be paid to data on the US labour market. The forecasted growth in the Nonfarm Payrolls to 172 thousand of new jobs could significantly support the Dollar. In the UK, data on the NIESR GDP Estimate is due.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is testing the support level at 1.2705.
Bollinger Bands is directed down while the price range slightly narrowed. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are stable. Stochastic is growing having left the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.2719, 1.2704, 1.2680, 1.2660.
Resistance levels: 1.2751, 1.2775, 1.2811, 1.2836, 1.2860, 1.2894.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2675 with the target at 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2720. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.2755 with targets at 1.2795, 1.2820 and stop-loss at 1.2680. Validity – 1-2 days.
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EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues falling after the ECB statement that the regulator is not planning to terminate its quantitative easing program in the nearest future. In addition, the Euro remains under pressure prior to the publication of the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.

At the same time, the American currency was supported by strong macroeconomic statistics that came out in the US. The Manufacturing and Services PMI’s, as well as Factory Orders showed substantial growth in the indices.
This week, extra attention needs to be paid to data on the US labour market that is due on Friday.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1.1177.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1243.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1160 with the target at 1.1121 and stop-loss at 1.1205.
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NZD/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Last week the pair significantly fell having lost more than 100 points. The NZD was pressured by a 3% drop in prices for milk while the USD was strengthening amid a decline in the number of Initial Jobless Claims in the US.
This week attention needs to be paid to the FOMC Minutes that could provide some clarity about further plans of the regulator on monetary policy in the US. On Friday, data on Retail Sales is due in the US. The index is expected to increase by 0.6% that could provide additional support to the USD.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the pair is falling along the lower line of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing.
Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6935, 0.6820, 0.6740, 0.6670.
Resistance levels: 0.7200, 0.7255, 0.7315, 0.7365, 0.7425, 0.7485.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7050, 0.7000 and stop-loss at 0.7200. Validity – 2-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7220 with the target at 0.7300 and stop-loss at 0.7200. Validity – 2-5 days.

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair continues falling despite the lack of major macroeconomic data releases. The US Dollar has been strengthening against its counterparts amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Market participants are now waiting for the publication of minutes of the Fed September meeting that is due tomorrow at 8:00 pm (GMT+2).

Today strong statistics from Germany has not managed to support the instrument. Nevertheless, it should be noted that assessment of the current situation in Germany grew from 55.1 to 59.5 points in October while the economic sentiment index rose from 0.5 to 6.2 points, the ZEW survey showed.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed down suggesting further downward movement in the pair. MACD histogram remains in the negative zone, its volumes are growing and forming a sell signal.
Support levels: 1.1075, 1.1048, 1.1000, 1.0950.
Resistance levels: 1.1115, 1.1156, 1.1206, 1.1236.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down and consolidates below the level of 1.1075 with targets at 1.1048, 1.1000 and stop-loss at 1.1100.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidates above the level of 1.1115 with targets at 1.1156, 1.1206 and stop-loss at 1.1085.

USD/JPY: technical analysis
USD/JPY, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA130 and SMA200 that turned horizontal. The RSI is trying to turn up to retest its most recent resistance. The Composite is about to test its longer MA.

USD/JPY, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading just above the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is turning up in the Bullish zone above the 50 mark. The Composite is turning up as well.

Key levels

Support levels: 102.84 (local lows), 102.30 (active trade), 101.44 (June lows).
Resistance levels: 104.16 (local highs), 105.30 (61.8% Fibonacci correction), 106.11 (April lows).

Trading tips

The pair broke out its long-term descending trendline. Growth is likely to continue.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 104.16 with targets at 105.30, 106.11 and stop-loss at 103.78. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 102.84 with targets at 102.30, 101.44 and stop-loss at 103.16. Validity – 3-5 days.

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues growing amid falling oil prices. Despite recent statements from a number of the largest exporting countries about upcoming reduction in the production levels, this week the price of Brent crude oil resumed its fall, representing doubts of market participants of the possibility of the production cut from the biggest exporters. In addition, yesterday’s report from the American Petroleum Institute showed a substantial growth in oil reserves in the US that increased pressure on oil prices.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change in the US. A forecasted increase in reserves of 0.65 million barrels could provide additional support to the pair.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price is testing the level of 1.3305. Bollinger Bands is directed up while the price range is widening. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is about to enter the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.3238, 1.3205, 1.3181, 1.3158, 1.3138, 1.3107, 1.3080.
Resistance levels: 1.3259, 1.3280, 1.3304, 1.3223.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3235 with targets at 1.3305, 1.3325 and stop-loss at 1.3205. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3200 with targets at 1.3140, 1.3110 and stop-loss at 1.3245. Validity – 1-2 days.

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The Euro against the US Dollar continues trading in the region of 1.1000. Having fallen to the level of 1.0985, the pair corrected up but then resumed its fall and is now aiming to consolidate below the level of 1.0950.
Today the market can be influenced by the publication of data on US retail sales in September. Favorable macroeconomic forecasts suggest strengthening in the US Dollar that will pressure the EUR/USD pair.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands is still directed down while the price range is narrowing. The price continues falling from the middle line of the indicator towards the lower one.
Given this data and the projected rise in US retail sales, the price is likely to try to break down the level of 1.0985 and head towards 1.0950.

Support levels: 1.1000, 1.0980, 1.0960, 1.0950, 1.0910, 1.0900, 1.0880, 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0760, 1.0700, 1.0670.
Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1065, 1.1100, 1.1140, 1.1180, 1.1200, 1.1230, 1.1280, 1.1300, 1.1330, 1.1360, 1.1370, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1430, 1.1450, 1.1490, 1.1500, 1.1530, 1.1550.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 1.0985, 1.0950 and stop-loss at 1.1040.
At the same time, the possibility of a price rebound should not be dismissed, thus, pending sell order can be placed at the level of 1.0985 with the target at 1.1040 and stop-loss at 1.0950.