Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend
Last week the pair significantly fell amid the publication of weak data on the Consumer Price Index in Australia. In the first quarter, the index fell by 0.2% while economists forecasted a 0.3% growth.

At the same time, the pair was supported by today’s data on TD Securities Inflation from Australia that showed a 0.1% growth in the index. Today attention also needs to be paid to data on the Markit and ISM Manufacturing PMI’s from the US. Data above the forecasts might support the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are almost not changing. Stochastic is growing.

Support levels: 0.7610, 0.7580, 0.7560, 0.7540, 0.7500.
Resistance levels: 0.7640, 0.7650, 0.7670, 0.7700, 0.7725, 0.7750, 0.7780, 0.7830.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7650 with targets at 0.7700, 0.7750 and stop-loss at 0.7610. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7610 with targets at 0.7580, 0.7560 and stop-loss at 0.7630. Validity – 1-2 days.

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid strengthening in the GPB. The Pound is supported by a substantially increased probability that the UK will remain in the European Union. According to the latest survey, the number of those ready to vote for staying in the EU exceeds the number of supporters of country’s exit.

In addition, the Pound was supported by the Bank of England decision to leave unchanged its key interest rate and the size of its quantitative easing program. At the same time, consumer inflation remains far from the Bank’s target of 2%, so in the nearest future monetary policy will stay easy.

Support and resistance
The price broke out the upper border of the sideways channel and is currently consolidating above it.
The RSI reached the 70 mark suggesting the possibility of a downward correction.

The nearest support level is at 1.4694.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.4755.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.4735 with the target at 1.4690 and stop-loss at 1.4755.

USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend
Yesterday the USD/JPY pair strengthened. The American currency was supported by favorable macroeconomic statistics, released in the US in the afternoon. In particular, the US trade deficit shrank from $47.00 billion to $40.40 billion, exceeding the forecast of $41.50 billion. Moreover, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was up from 54.7 to 55.7 points.

On Friday dynamics in the pair can be influenced by data on Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls, due in the US.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting at the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed horizontally while the price range is widening. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are falling. The indicator is forming a buy signal. Stochastic has turned down in the overbought zone.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 106.90, 106.62, 106.24, 106.02, 105.71.
Resistance levels: 107.56, 107.97, 108.40, 108.91, 109.31.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the level of 106.62 is broken down with the target at 105.71 and stop-loss at 106.90. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened after the level of 107.56 is broken out with the target at 107.97 and stop-loss at 106.90. Validity – 1-2 days.

Brent: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil corrected up and tested the level of 46.67, but could not consolidate above it. The price was supported by news that forest fires in Canada curbed its oil production.

Today extra attention needs to be paid to data on the Non-farm Payrolls that is due in the US at 2:30 pm (GMT+2). Growth in the index might support the US Dollar and pressure oil prices.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. Bollinger bands are directed down suggesting the downward tendency will continue.

Support levels: 44.00, 43.00, 42.00.
Resistance levels: 45.00, 46.00, 47.26, 48.15.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 44.00 with targets at 43.00, 42.00 and stop-loss at 44.65.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 46.00 with targets at 47.00, 48.00 and stop-loss at 45.35.

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend
Since the middle of last week, the pair was growing amid publications of poor macroeconomic statistics in Canada. The Trade Balance deficit increased from 2.47 to 3.41 billion Canadian Dollars, while the Net Employment Change declined by 2.1 thousands, which was substantially worse than forecasts.

Today attention needs to be paid to data on the JOLTS Jobs Opening in the US. The index is expected to fall from 5.445 to 5.412 thousands that might pressure the pair.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band, while bands are directed up and the price range is expanding. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are stable. Stochastic is trying to turn up.

The indicators recommend long positions.

Support levels: 1.2937, 1.2906, 1.2841, 1.2794, 1.2698, 1.2640, 1.2574, 1.2538, 1.2492.
Resistance levels: 1.2967, 1.3018, 1.3056, 1.3084, 1.3125.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.3018 and stop-loss at 1.2937. Validity – 1-2 days.

Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.3018 with targets at 1.2906 and stop-loss at 1.3056. Validity – 1-2 days.

EUR/USD: technical analysis

EUR/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is trying to turn up in the Bullish zone above the 50 mark. The Composite is trying to turn up as well.

EUR/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trying to break out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are directed horizontally. The RSI is growing having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite developed a larger upward move suggesting limited growth potential in the pair.

Key levels

Support levels: 1.1357 (local lows), 1.1219 (end of April lows), 1.1139 (end of March lows).

Resistance levels: 1.1466 (psychologically important level), 1.1532 (February 2015 lows), 1.1602 (local highs).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1350 with the target at 1.1234 and stop-loss at 1.1385. Validity – 2-3 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1476 with targets at 1.1522, 1.1582 and stop-loss at 1.1450. Validity – 2-3 days.

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Since the opening of the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair has been declining. The European currency remains under pressure, as Italy’s banking system is facing difficulties due to the increased number of bad loans. Many commercial banks need additional capital, and shares in Banco Popolare, one of Italy’s largest banks, lost 14 percent.

Weak data on the eurozone’s industrial production has had a negative impact on the Euro as well. The indicator came in at -0.8%, far below analysts’ forecast.

Support and resistance

RSI has reached the 36 level, and the pair still has potential for further fall. A correction can start from the level of 1.1364.

The nearest support level is at 1.1364.

The nearest resistance level is at 1.1449.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1364 with the target at 1.1400 and stop-loss at 1.1345.

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend
The pair continues consolidating after a significant growth at the beginning of the week.
Data on the Tertiary Industry Index for March that was published today in Japan showed a decline of 0.7%, while experts anticipated a 0.2% fall, which slightly pressured the Yen. Today attention also needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales in the US. According to forecasts, indices will show growth that might provide additional support to the pair.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues sideways movement along a narrow channel formed of the borders of Bollinger Bands, and is currently trading on the middle MA of the indicator. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling.
Support levels: 108.90, 108.50, 108.10, 107.65, 107.00, 106.50, 105.75, 105.35.
Resistance levels: 109.35, 110.00, 110.30, 110.75, 111.00, 111.25, 111.60, 112.00.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 109.00 with the target at 109.35 and stop-loss at 108.90. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 108.50 with the target at 108.10 and stop-loss at 108.70. Validity – 1-2 days.

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the pair slightly strengthened amid the publication of strong statistics in the US. The Consumer Price Index grew by 0.4% while economists predicted a growth of 0.3%. In addition, the Consumer Price Index n.s.a increased to 239.260 and Housing Starts grew to 1.172 million.

At the same time, the Yen was supported by today’s data on the Japanese GDP. In the first quarter, the index came out at 1.7%, instead of a forecasted 0.2% growth.
Today attention also needs to be paid to the FOMC Minutes in the US.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading near the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are minimal. Stochastic is growing.

Support levels: 109.35, 108.90, 108.50, 108.10, 107.65, 107.00, 106.50, 105.75, 105.35.
Resistance levels: 109.65, 110.00, 110.30, 110.75, 111.00, 111.25, 111.60, 112.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 109.30 with targets at 109.00, 108.50 and stop-loss at 109.45. Validity – 1-3 days.

Long positons can be opened from the level of 109.65 with targets at 110.00, 110.30 and stop-loss at 109.50. Validity – 1-3 days.

AUD/JPY: pair is falling

Current trend
The pair continues falling amid a large number of macroeconomic publications in Japan and Australia.
The Yen was supported by strong data on the Japanese GDP. In the first quarter of the year, the index grew by 1.7% that substantially exceeded forecasts of economists of a 0.2% growth. At the same time, the Australian Dollar was pressured by weak data on the labour market of the country. The Employment Change increased by 10.8 thousands, which was worse than expectations of experts who predicted a 12.5 thousands growth, and worse than the previous figure of 25.7 thousands. However, the Unemployment Rate did not show an expected increase and remained unchanged.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is turning horizontally while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic turned sideways near the middle of its range.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 79.20 (local low), 78.62 (16 May low), 78.16 (6 May low), 77.57 (11 February low).
Resistance levels: 79.52 (local high), 80.00 (psychologically important level), 80.34, 80.64 (11 May high), 81.00, 81.60, 82.00 (29 April high), 82.45, 83.00.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 80.00 with targets at 81.00, 81.60 and stop-loss at 79.50. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 78.62 with targets at 77.57, 77.00 and stop-loss at 79.20. Validity – 2-4 days.