Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

XAU/USD: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the 4-hour chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) develops, within which the wave 5 of (3) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 is forming, within which the wave (iii) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 2013.38–2074.22. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1880.51.

USD/CHF: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the 4-hour chart, an upward correction of the higher level forms as the wave (2), within which the development of the wave C of (2) started. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of C is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 0.9295–0.9398. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.8982.

EUR/USD: wave analysis

The correction ended, the pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) develops, within which a local correction ended as the wave iv of 1. Now, the development of the fifth wave v of 1 has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of v has formed, and a correction is forming as the wave (ii) of v. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2012–1.2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1603.

USD/CAD: wave analysis

The pair may fall.

On the 4-hour chart, a correction of the higher level developed as the wave (2), and the formation of the downward wave (3) started. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) has formed. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction ii of 1 of (3), the pair will fall to the levels of 1.2800–1.2700. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3156.

Current trend

USD declines actively against JPY during today's Asian session, developing a correctional impulse formed the day before. USD is actively testing 105.00 for a breakdown, partially offsetting the active growth of the instrument at the beginning of the week, which was caused by the reports of the successful completion of the Phase III of clinical trials of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine.

Some support to USD on Thursday was provided by the data on the dynamics of jobless claims. The number of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 6 decreased from 757K to 709K, which turned out to be better than the projected 735K. The number of Continuing Jobless Claims for the period ending October 30 also showed a steady decline from 7.222M to 6.786M with the forecast for a decrease only to 6.9M.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is widening from above, maintaining the "bullish" momentum in the short term after the strong growth of the instrument on November 9. MACD is reversing downwards preserving the previous buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, retreating from its highs, indicating the overbought USD in the ultra-short term.

It is worth looking into the possibility of a corrective decline in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 105.00, 105.33, 105.60, 105.79.

Support levels: 104.75, 104.50, 104.20, 104.00.

EUR/USD: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) develops, within which a local correction ended as the wave iv of 1. Now, the development of the fifth wave v of 1 has begun, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of v has formed, and a correction has developed as the wave (ii) of v. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow within the wave (iii) of v to the levels of 1.2012–1.2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1739.

XAG/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Silver stays at last week's levels, trading at $24.65 per ounce.

World prices for precious metals are still fairly stable. The amount of investment capital is held without significant changes. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), over the past week, the number of pure speculative positions in silver increased slightly, reaching 45.8K against 45.3K a week earlier.

The indicators of demand for a commodity asset do not change either. In October, the volume of industrial production of the main importer of metal, China, remained at the September levels and amounted to 6.9%. At the same time, the unemployment rate in October fell to 5.3% from 5.4% in the previous month. The level of foreign direct investment continues to grow and is already at the level of 2019, reaching 6.40%.

Support and resistance

On the global chart of the asset, the price continues to correct downward within the downwards channel. After reaching the resistance line, another wave of decline continues to form. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator intertwined with the signal one and the AO oscillator histogram is at the transition level and is ready to enter the negative zone at any moment.

Resistance levels: 25.73, 29.10.
Support levels: 24.00, 21.60.

EUR/USD: the pair is growing

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is moving within an uptrend, trading around 1.1874.

The long-awaited speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde took place yesterday, and its main topic was the prospects for the recovery of the EU economy. According to the head of the regulator, even in 2021, the economy will not be able to reach pre-quarantine levels. The key task for the bank for this and next year will be to prevent the current economic crisis from escalating into a financial one. Lagarde noted that she expects the average GDP to fall by 8% in 2020 but the introduction of a stricter quarantine is out of the question, as this could lead to an even deeper crisis.

Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to experience significant difficulties. Macroeconomic statistics moved from positive to negative. The underlying retail sales index for October was 0.2%, significantly worse than the 1.2% a month earlier. The volume of retail sales for October fell to 0.3% from 1.6% in September.

Support and resistance

Globally, the correction develops within a wide sideways channel, and the price approaches the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a buy signal. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal one, and the AO oscillator histogram is kept in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1930, 1.2080.
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1610.

USD/CHF: USD is consolidating

Current trend

USD is trading near zero against CHF during today's Asian session, consolidating near strong support at 0.9100. USD received a short-term impulse to growth, which, however, was more due to technical factors. Macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Wednesday turned out to be rather negative and could hardly have contributed to the development of correctional sentiments in favor of USD. Building Permits Change in October showed zero dynamics after a solid growth of 4.7% in September. Housing Starts Change in October decreased from +6.3% to +4.9%. MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ending November 13 fell by 0.3% after declining by 0.5% in the previous period.

Traders are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of jobless claims. Investors expect the indicators to continue declining moderately, but the number of Initial Jobless Claims is unlikely to fall below the psychological level of 700K.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing from above, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics. MACD preserves moderate decline and a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached the level of "20", reversed into a sideways channel, signaling about risks of oversold USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9126, 0.9155, 0.9200, 0.9239.
Support levels: 0.9100, 0.9074, 0.9028, 0.9000.

EUR/USD: the pair grows

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is moving within an upward trend, trading around the level of 1.1890.

The online summit of the EU leaders ended yesterday. The main issues were the settlement of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and the vaccine against COVID-19. The leaders agreed to expedite the preparation of national vaccination plans as quickly as possible and expressed their hope that one of the vaccines will soon be available for mass use.

The US dollar is weakening against the major world currencies, trading at 92.220. Investors reacted negatively to the news that US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin refused to extend some emergency funding programs. In a situation where there are no negotiations on new incentives and the current programs are not extended, investors are leaving the dollar. Another negative factor was the data on Initial Jobless Claims, the number of which increased by 742K instead of the expected 707K.

Support and resistance

Globally, a correction develops within a wide sideways channel, and the price approaches the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a buy signal. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal one, and the AO oscillator histogram stays in the buy zone. In general, the situation is suitable for a quick reversal and trend change.

Resistance levels: 1.1930, 1.2160.
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1610.