Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the XAU/USD pair rose to a level of 1250.85, updating 4-month maximum, due to the release of weak US unemployment data. The number of initial claims month increased from 238K to 244K. The negative statistics on the labor market significantly reduces the likelihood of interest rate hike at the March meeting of the Fed. Thus, the market expectation regarding the imminent tightening of monetary policy is assessed as very low, which contributes to the strengthening of the precious metals.

Today traders are waiting for the stats on new home sales in the US. The Head of the Fed has stated that the statistics on sales of new homes was an important element in the decision on the interest rate.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the pair is approaching the upper boundary of "Bollinger Bands" from below. Indicator is directed upwards, and the price range is narrow, indicating a high probability of change of the current trend. Histogram of MACD is in the positive zone, maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic is going to enter the overbought zone.

Support levels: 1247.36, 1235.44, 1229.35, 1216.16.
Resistance levels: 1256.53, 1264.87, 1272.49.

Trading tips

Short positions should be opened at the level of 1254.00 with the targets at 1243.00 and a stop-loss at the level of 1257.10. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 1257.50 with targets at 1264.70 and a stop-loss at the level of 1252.50. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair is trading in a narrow range of 1.0550-1.0610. Consolidation takes place due to the political and economic uncertainty in Europe and the United States.
Euro is under pressure of the upcoming elections in France. If the candidate of the "National Front" party Marie Le Pen comes to power, France may withdraw from the Eurozone, which would significantly weaken the rate of EUR/USD.

Dollar remains under pressure of political factors as well. Despite the fact that the US economy is recovering, and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee promise an imminent rate hike, there is uncertainty about future fiscal policy of the new US government. On Tuesday, President Trump will speak before Congress and present its "ambitious plan to reduce taxes."

Today stats on orders for durable goods will be published in the US. According to the forecast, the indicator is expected to grow by 1.7%. In the case of negative data, the dollar is going to be weakened.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair is moving within the descending channel and successfully gained a foothold below the level of 1.0610. MACD is below both zero and signal lines, its volumes are growing, the lines of Stochastic are pointing upwards. The indicators do not give a specific signal.

Resistance levels: 1.0610, 1.0650, 1.0700, 1.0750.
Support levels: 1.0550, 1.0520, 1.0460.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.0650 with the targets at 1.0700 and 1.0750 and stop loss at 1.0610.
Short positions will be relevant below the level of 1.0520, the goal – 1.0460, stop-loss – 1.0550.

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

A decline in the Australian Dollar after the RBA Governor Philip Lowe speech last week was caused by the decision to keep an interest rate at the level of 1.5%. At the same time, in light of growing commodity prices the fall in the Australiana currency cannot be lasting. Today the pair slightly strengthened amid a publication of a number of macroeconomic releases in Australia. Most likely, it was supported by strong data on the Current Balance.

Today extra attention needs to be paid to data from the US on the GDP, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence. However, as markets are waiting for today’s Donald Trump speech in Congress, volatility might remain low.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7660, 0.7600, 0.7540, 0.7490. *
Resistance levels: 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7830.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7780, 0.7800 and stop-loss at 0.7630.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7660 with targets at 0.7600, 0.7540 and stop-loss at 0.7700.

NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar under pressure

Current trend

During this week, the pair was decreasing and currently reached its 2-month minimum at the level of 0.7100. Today, the pair is under pressure of the statements of the FOMC’s John Williams and William Dudley. Williams, FRB San Francisco President, stated that at FOMC should pay due attention to increasing the rate at the session in March. Dudley, Head of FRB New York, stated during his interview to CNN that the chances to increase the rates are much higher now. On the other hand, RBNZ President Graeme Wheeler contributed to weakening of the NZ dollar. During his speech in Auckland, he stated that, despite the national economy growth, it's too early to discuss raising interest rates above the current level of 2.0%, and more than that, another decrease might happen. Main domestic risks result from housing market instability, foreign risks result from a possibility of American administration implementing protectionist measures which may as well affect New Zealand.

Support and resistance

Technically, the pair is testing the key level of 0.7100 (Fibonacci retracements — 38.2%), and if it breaks through, it will decrease further to the level of 0.7000 (Fibonacci retracements — 23.6%) and to 0.6900. Indicators agree with this: Bollinger Bands and Stochastics are pointing downwards, MACD histogram went to negative zone. Turning upwards is possible if the price consolidates above 0.7175 (50.0% correction) and middle line of Bollinger Bands. The increase may continue to 0.7245 (61.8% Fibonacci retracements) and 0.7340 (76.4% Fibonacci retracements).

Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6900.
Resistance levels: 0.7175, 0.7245, 0.7340.

Trading tips

In this situation, short positions can be opened if the price consolidates below 0.7100 with take-profits at 0.7000, 0.6900 and Stop loss order at 0.7130. If the price consolidates above 0.7175 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands, long positions could be opened with take-profits at 0.7245, 0.7340 and Stop loss order at 0.7140.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is corrected after decreasing to 1.0493 as USD gains ground. The main event which will set the further rate dynamics is speeches of US FOMC's members, including Janet Yellen. It is possible that rate correction will continue while the market is waiting for the speeches. *Hawkish comments can lead to another wave of buying the dollar and, consecutively, decrease EUR/USD rate. In addition to FOMC members' speeches, traders will pay attention to Markit PMI data for USA due at 16:00 GMT+2.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators show that the rate is still being corrected. Bollinger Bands are narrowing. MACD histogram is in positive zone, its volume is gradually decreasing, signalling that correction is still going on. If the price consolidates above the upper border of Bollinger Bands (1.0540), this will mean that the upward trend is forming. If the price does not break out the level of 1.0540, the reversal and another testing of 1.0493 is possible.
Support levels: 1.0493, 1.0452, 1.0392.
Resistance levels: 1.0569, 1.0630, 1.0677.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above 1.0569 with Take Profit orders at 1.0630 and stop-loss at 1.0545. Breakdown of the level of 1.0630 will open a way to 1.0453 for the pair.
Sell positions would become relevant below 1.0493 with Take Profit orders at 1.0452, 1.0392 and stop-loss at 1.0523.

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

As a typical commodity currency, the Australian Dollar was falling against the US Dollar all last week. On Friday, however, following oil and precious metals, it recovered part of the losses and returned to a strong resistance level of 0.7600.
This week investors’ attention is going to be focused on the RBA decision on interest rates that is due to be released on Tuesday. Amid a substantial reduction in the Australian Trade Balance, which was mainly the result of the unfavourable for the export-oriented Australian economy strengthening in the national currency, and negative data on inflation that came out today the regulator, most likely, will keep the interest rate unchanged in order to weaken the AUD. Before the decision is published, however, the pair is likely to continue its upward correction.
Today attention should be paid to data on Factory Orders from the US.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7540, 0.7490, 0.7420.
Resistance levels: 0.7660, 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7830.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7660, 0.7780 and stop-loss at 0.7520.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7660 with targets at 0.7600, 0.7540 and stop-loss at 0.7700.

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

From the last half of the past week the pair is consolidating in the narrow range within 1.2205-1.2300. There is no news or drivers to make the GBP/USD move in any directions in the nearest two days. However, taking into consideration the experts’’ fears about the UK and its economy and the GBP tendency to lower after every upward rebound, the pair will be traded in the narrow channel with the “bearish” dynamics till Friday.

On Friday there are many macroeconomical releases to be published, which can cause high volatility in general and in the GBP/USD movement in particular: Consumer Inflation Expectations and Manufacturing Production data from the UK, the USA Labor Force Participation Rate: in case of strong data in can press the pair significantly.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair is lowering along the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The indicator is reversing downwards, as the price range is widen greatly, which can reflect the development of the downward trend. The MACD histogram is near the zero line; its volumes are lowering, keeping a sell signal. The Stochastic is ready to leave the oversold area.

During the following two days the pair will be traded within 1.2200-1.2300, so enter the market using Buy limit and Sell limit.

Support levels: 1.2186, 1.2140, 1.2107.
Resistance levels: 1.2261, 1.2328, 1.2371, 1.2418.

Trading scenario

Long positions open at the level of 1.2170 with the target at 1.2260 and stop loss at 1.2140. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Open short positions at the level of 1.2255 with the target at 1.2185 and stop loss at 1.2285. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

During today's trading session, WTI Crude Oil price is under pressure, quotes went down to 52.70. The catalysts for the current market situation are expecting oil reserves growth in USA, and also global supply redistribution — despite all attempts by OPEC countries and some other market participants outside the cartel to decrease oil extraction.

China's customs report data showed that demand for carbohydrates is still high in this country. On February, crude oil import set a new record. Daily demand by Chinese consumers is 8.286 million barrels, which is by 3.5% higher than in the last year.

However, this data didn't cause further growth, as American Petroleum Institute report was published yesterday at the end of the day. From this report it is clearly seen that last week, the oil reserves grew by 11.6 million barrels, which is five times higher than expected.

Energy Information Administration's weekly US crude oil reserves data will be released today. According to the forecasts, the reserves will grow by 1.660 million barrels. Judging by Tuesday's data, the indicator can exceed the expectations significantly. In this case, USCrude price is going to decrease.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart of the instrument, we can see strong resistance level of 52.70. The MACD histogram is near zero line and its volume is decreasing, Stochastic is pointing downwards, which gives a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 54.50, 55.70, 57.50.
Support levels: 52.70, 51.30, 50.00.

Trading tips

Short positions could be opened at current level with take-profits at 51.30 and Stop Loss order at 53.20.
Buy positions may be opened after price consolidates above 54.50 with targets at 55.70 and stop-loss at 54.00.
Implementation time: 1-2 days.

NZD/USD: technical analysis

NZD/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading below the lower line of Bollinger Bands and is about to form a sixth close outside of the range. The price remains below its moving averages that are turning down. The RSI keeps falling having entered the oversold zone. The Composite is trying to turn up as it approached its critical levels.

NZD/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is falling along the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is trying to turn up in the oversold zone having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.6860 (December 2016 lows), 0.6815 (September 2007 lows), 0.6750 (February 2016 highs).
Resistance levels: 0.6949 (July 2016 lows), 0.6970 (November 2016 lows), 0.7042 (October 2016 lows).

Trading tips

The price is testing its strong support level in the region of 0.6860. Its breakdown would allow the fall to continue, however, there is a high chance of an upward rebound.

Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.6860 with targets at 0.6949, 0.6970, 0.7042 and stop-loss at 0.6840. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6840 with targets at 0.6815, 0.6750 and stop-loss at 0.6860. Validity – 3-5 days.

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday during the trading session the pair continued to grow and reached the maximum of 2017 year, despite the slight weakening of the USD against some of the main currencies such as GBP and EUR due to the weak USA employment market data publication. The Initial Jobless Claims value was higher than expected: 243K against 235K. Yesterday the oil prices were stable, so the CAD price was stable too.
There are a lot of key releases today, which can influence the USD/CAD pair. The Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment data are to be published in the USA, and the Canada Unemployment Rate is expected too.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair is growing along the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the price range is widen, which reflects the development of the upward trend in the middle term.

The MACD gives a signal to open long positions, the signal line has crossed the zero line downwards, and the histogram’s volumes are slightly growing.
Support levels: 1.3485, 1.3430, 1.3370, 1.3320, 1.3245, 1.3185, 1.3095, 1.3000, 1.2915.
Resistance levels: 1.3540, 1.3600.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current level with the target at 1.3540, 1.3600 and stop loss at 1.3460.
Open short positions at the level of 1.3430 with the target at 1.3370 and stop loss at 1.3460.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.