Technical Analysis

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Poised to Extend Gains After Break of Resistance
• S&P 500 Clears September Top, Sets Another Record High
• Crude Oil Digesting Losses, Gold Drops Most in 11 Months

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices look poised to extend its advance after prices cleared yet another technical barrier. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 11308 exposes the 61.8% level at 11400. Alternatively, a turn below the 38.2% Fib at 11216 opens the door for a challenge of the 11102-43 area marked by the October 3 high and the 23.6% expansion.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices overcome September’s top at 2022.10, setting a new record high. Near-term resistance is now at 2032.30, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 2051.00. Alternatively, a reversal back below 2022.10 sees support at 2002.10, the November 4 low.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 1131.11 exposes the 100% level at 1092.78. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 61.8% Fib at 1154.82 aims for the 1173.99-78.86 area (December 2013 low, 50% expansion).



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to digest losses after touching a four-year low. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 82.22 targets the 50% level at 80.46. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% Fib at 84.39 aims for the intersection of the 14.6% expansion and channel floor support-turned-resistance at 85.73.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

• EURUSD and USDCHF reversal risk is high
• USDJPY 113.50/114 should provide clues regarding next move
• AUDUSD tests major median line parallel

EUR/USD
Weekly



-BIG picture, monthly RSI has broken out of a triangle pattern. Sometimes, a pattern breakout in momentum (or OBV) precedes the breakout in price. The development’s implications are obviously significant.
-“Near term, price action since the October low likely composes a 4th wave correction within a 5 wave decline from the May high. Allow for additional sideways trading in order to complete wave 4 before a new low in wave 5 targets 1.2400 or 1.2315.”
-“EURUSD is at a new low and focus shifts to identifying possible reversal points for the end of wave 5. Wave 5 (from 1.2886) would equal wave (1.3993-1.3502) at 1.2395. Equality between waves 5 and 1 is a common relationship.” The low this week was 1.2357, which is within the 1.2315/95 zone. Reversal risk is high.

GBP/USD
Weekly



-“GBPUSD is at a crossroads. The trend is down against 1.6184 but recent activity warns of a turn. The rate carved a key reversal last week and action since the low is constructive (decline from 1.6184 found low at the 61.8% of prior rally). Exceeding 1.6184 would confirm a 3 week bottoming pattern and yield an objective near 1.65.”
-“The rate traded 1.6181 this week before sinking to new lows. Favor the downside as long as price is below trendline resistance. The next major support is 1.5720/50.”

AUD/USD
Monthly



-“The combination of the .9400 figure and weekly RSI failing near 60 indicates a lot of overhead to punch through. Since the 2011 top, each RSI failure near 60 has led to a top or topping process (range for several weeks then a breakdown...that may be the case now).”
-“Weakness has extended below the line that extends off of the 2008 and 2014 lows, warning of something much more significant on the downside. The 10/29 outside day reversal keeps me looking lower. A new low would expose expansion objectives at .8476 and .8373.”
-AUDUSD made fresh lows this week but Friday’s outside day reversal, at a long term median line parallel nonetheless, should not be ignored. A push above .8760 (weekly breakout bar) would lend credence to a more important reversal scenario.

NZD/USD
Weekly



-“Don’t forget about the line that extends off of the 1996 and 2007 highs. That line crosses through the 2008, 2011, and highs as well. In 2011 (record free float high), the rate surged through the line in late July before topping on August 1st. The rate reversed this week from pips below the record high and above the mentioned line.”
-“The gap from Labor Day 2013 has held as support but last week’s spike into .8034 (just shy of the February low at .8050) probably completed 3 weeks of consolidation. In other words, start looking lower again. Ultimately, weakness below .7370 would confirm a double top with an objective of .5898.”
-The Bird traded under the 2013 low this week but be aware of slowing momentum (RSI divergence + RSI > 30 on the daily) and a possible ending diagonal from the 10/21 high. A daily close above .79 would indicate a reversal opportunity.

USD/JPY
Monthly



-“Today’s USDJPY move is the 3rd largest one day rally since the 2011 low (all 3 moves are BoJ moves). In fact, the all-time low was exactly 3 years ago today. Where to now? The biggest (and most obvious) level that sticks out is 115.00/50 (range expansion level and inflection points in 2002 and 2007). 113.10 is a possible pausing point (61.8% of prior range added to breakout level).”
-115.50 put a ceiling on USDJPY this week. Still, support is seen at 114 and its difficult to get excited about downside prospects until a failed run at the high (and lower high).

USD/CAD
Weekly



-“USDCAD traded to its best levels since July 2009 this week but finished in the middle of its range for the week. The close and weak momentum profile casts doubt regarding the validity of the breakout but continue to look higher as long as price is above 1.1080. The rate also encounters potential resistance near 1.1450 from the upward sloping line that connects the October and 2011 and March 2014 highs.”
-This week’s high was 1.1465, a few ticks above the mentioned upward sloping line. Support is seen at 1.1270-1.1300 and weakness below 1.1120 is needed to break the bull trend.

USD/CHF
Weekly



-“USDCHF weakness has reset the market for another rally attempt. Remember, USDCHF broke above the trendline that extends off of the 2001 and 2010 highs. Like EURUSD, USDCHF monthly RSI broke from a potentially long term basing pattern. As long as .9358 holds, look higher.”
-“.9740 could serve as resistance for the next top.” Friday’s high was .9740. Like EURUSD, reversal risk is high.



More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Technical Positioning Warns of Downswing Ahead
• S&P 500 Has Room to Extend Deeper Above the 2000 Figure
• Crude Oil Poised to Renew Selloff After Chart Support Break

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be gearing up for a turn lower after prices produced a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 11246, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11211. Alternatively, a reversal above the 50% Fib expansion at 11295 clears the way for a test of the 61.8% Fib threshold at 11329.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed to another record higher, with buyers now aiming to challenge resistance marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2051.00. A break above this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 2081.20. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 2032.30 aims for resistance-turned-support at 2022.10, the September 19 high.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower anew after testing resistance in the 1178.86-80.84 area marked by the December 2013 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Near-term support is at 1131.11, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 100% level at 1092.78. Alternatively, a push above resistance targets the 38.2% retracement at 1212.23.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices edged below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 82.22, exposing the 50% level at 80.46. A further move beneath that targets the 61.8% Fib at 78.70. Alternatively, a reversal back above 82.22 aims for the intersection of channel floor support-turned-resistance and the 23.6% expansion at 84.39.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points

• USD/JPY tests trendline resistance
• GBP/USD threatening new yearly lows
• FXCM US Dollar Index in consolidation mode

USD/JPY

• USD/JPY traded at its highest level in seven years yesterday before running into trendline resistance around 116.00
• Our near-term trend bias is positive in the exchange rate while over 113.85
• A move through 116.00 is needed to signal an upside resumption and open the way for a push to the 200% extension of the October correction near 118.00
• A minor turn window is eyed today/tomorrow
• Weakness under 113.85 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

Like the long side while over 113.85.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/JPY	113.85	115.00	115.30	116.00	118.00

GBP/USD

• GBP/USD has been in consolidation mode for the past few days
• Our near-term trend bias is lower in Cable while under 1.6020
• Interim support is eyed around last week’s low of 1.5790, but weakness under 1.5720 is really required to confirm that a more serious decline is underway in the pound
• A minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
• A close over 1.6020 would turn us positive on GBP/USD

Like the short side while under 1.6020

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
GBP/USD	1.5720	1.5790	1.5825	1.5880	1.6020

FXCM US Dollar Index



The FXCM US Dollar Index failed last week just shy of the 78.6% retracement of the 2009-2011 decline at 11,315. The decline that has followed has been quite mild and looks like only a minor pause in the broader uptrend. However, given the extremes in sentiment recorded last week where the euro, yen & franc all recorded DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) levels of just 3% bulls we can’t rule out some further backfilling before the Buck tries to turn up again. Our analysis of cycles and other timing methods suggests the dollar could try to put in a low tomorrow or early next week, but the big component question remains the yen which is still exhibiting signs of extreme pessimism. We would feel much better about an upside USD resumption if the yen could flush some of these extremes out. In any event, only unexpected aggressive weakness under 11,150 would suggest a deeper and more important correction lower is unfolding.


More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Positioning Continues to Warn of Downswing Threat
• S&P 500 Rally Stalls But Chart Seems to Leave Room for Upside
• Gold Flat-Lining, Crude Oil Trying to Bounce After $80.00 Test

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be gearing up for a turn lower after prices produced a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 11211, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 11143-55 area (October 3 high, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a reversal above the 50% Fib expansion at 11295 clears the way for a test of the 61.8% Fib threshold at 11329.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices appear poised to move to another record high, challenging resistance marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2051.00. A break above this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 2081.20. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 2032.30 aims for resistance-turned-support at 2022.10, the September 19 high.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are treading water below resistance in the 1178.86-80.84 area marked by the December 2013 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Near-term support is at 1131.11, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 100% level at 1092.78. Alternatively, a push above resistance targets the 38.2% retracement at 1212.23.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to mount a recovery after setting yet another four-year low. A daily close back above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 80.46 exposes the 38.2% level at 82.22. Alternatively, downward resumption through the 61.8% Fib at 78.70 targets the 76.4% expansion at 76.53.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

• EURUSD and USDCHF fail to confirm USDOLLAR move
• USDJPY at upper median line parallel
• AUDUSD follows through on last Friday’s reversal

EUR/USD
Weekly



-BIG picture, monthly RSI has broken out of a triangle pattern. Sometimes, a pattern breakout in momentum (or OBV) precedes the breakout in price. The development’s implications are obviously significant.
-“Near term, price action since the October low likely composes a 4th wave correction within a 5 wave decline from the May high. Allow for additional sideways trading in order to complete wave 4 before a new low in wave 5 targets 1.2400 or 1.2315.”
-“EURUSD is at a new low and focus shifts to identifying possible reversal points for the end of wave 5. Wave 5 (from 1.2886) would equal wave (1.3993-1.3502) at 1.2395. Equality between waves 5 and 1 is a common relationship. Reversal risk is high.” Friday’s rally indicates follow through on the previous Friday reversal. Support is estimated at 1.2455.

GBP/USD
Weekly



-“GBPUSD is at a crossroads. The trend is down against 1.6184 but recent activity warns of a turn. The rate carved a key reversal last week and action since the low is constructive (decline from 1.6184 found low at the 61.8% of prior rally). Exceeding 1.6184 would confirm a 3 week bottoming pattern and yield an objective near 1.65.”
-“The rate traded 1.6181 this week before sinking to new lows. Favor the downside as long as price is below trendline resistance.”

AUD/USD
Monthly



-“The combination of the .9400 figure and weekly RSI failing near 60 indicates a lot of overhead to punch through. Since the 2011 top, each RSI failure near 60 has led to a top or topping process (range for several weeks then a breakdown...that may be the case now).”
-“Weakness has extended below the line that extends off of the 2008 and 2014 lows, warning of something much more significant on the downside. The 10/29 outside day reversal keeps me looking lower. A new low would expose expansion objectives at .8476 and .8373.”
-“AUDUSD made fresh lows this week but Friday’s outside day reversal, at a long term median line parallel nonetheless, should not be ignored. A push above .8760 (weekly breakout bar) would lend credence to a more important reversal scenario.” The market is pressing .8760 now. Support is estimated at .8630.

NZD/USD
Weekly



-“Don’t forget about the line that extends off of the 1996 and 2007 highs. That line crosses through the 2008, 2011, and highs as well. In 2011 (record free float high), the rate surged through the line in late July before topping on August 1st. The rate reversed this week from pips below the record high and above the mentioned line.”
-“The gap from Labor Day 2013 has held as support but last week’s spike into .8034 (just shy of the February low at .8050) probably completed 3 weeks of consolidation. In other words, start looking lower again. Ultimately, weakness below .7370 would confirm a double top with an objective of .5898.”
-The Bird traded under the 2013 low last week but be aware of slowing momentum (RSI divergence + RSI > 30 on the daily) and a possible ending diagonal from the 10/21 high. The turn higher is impulsive. Watch for support at .7750.

USD/JPY
Monthly



-The bull move is relentless but USDJPY traded into an upper median line parallel on Friday and pulled back (slightly). A drop below 114.87 is needed to do technical damage on the shortest term time frame and indicate that a setback is underway or topping process is unfolding.

USD/CAD
Weekly



-“USDCAD traded to its best levels since July 2009 this week but finished in the middle of its range for the week. The close and weak momentum profile casts doubt regarding the validity of the breakout but continue to look higher as long as price is above 1.1080. The rate also encounters potential resistance near 1.1450 from the upward sloping line that connects the October and 2011 and March 2014 highs.”
-This week’s high was 1.1465, a few ticks above the mentioned upward sloping line. Support is seen at 1.1270-1.1300 (there now) and weakness below 1.1120 is needed to break the bull trend.

USD/CHF
Weekly



-“USDCHF weakness has reset the market for another rally attempt. Remember, USDCHF broke above the trendline that extends off of the 2001 and 2010 highs. Like EURUSD, USDCHF monthly RSI broke from a potentially long term basing pattern. As long as .9358 holds, look higher.”
-“.9740 could serve as resistance for the next top.” Last week’s high was .9740 and today’s decline indicates follow through on the previous Friday’s reversal. Like EURUSD, reversal risk is high.



More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Chart Positioning Hints at Lingering Risk of a Pullback
• S&P 500 Languishing in Consolidation After Setting Record High
• Gold Trying to Expose 1200 Anew, Crude Oil May Move Upward

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be gearing up for a turn lower after producing a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 11211, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 11143-55 area (October 3 high, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a reversal above the 50% Fib expansion at 11295 clears the way for a test of the 61.8% Fib threshold at 11329.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are treading water after setting yet another record high last week. Near-term resistance is at 2051.00, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 2081.20. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 2032.30 aims for resistance-turned-support at 2022.10, the September 19 high.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to launch a recovery, with a break above support-turned-resistance marked by the October 3 low at 1189.89 exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1212.23. Alternatively, a reversal below the 1178.86-80.84 area (December 2013 low, 23.6% level) targets the 14.6% retracement at 1161.49.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be gearing up for a recovery after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A break above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 79.81 exposes the intersection of a falling trend line and the 23.6% level at 81.71. Near-term support is at 76.74, the November 14 low.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points

• EUR/USD rallies back above 1.2500
• Monday’s range extremes critical in the Aussie
• USD/CAD sentiment close to neutral

EUR/USD

• EUR/USD failed yesterday near the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.2580
• Our near-term trend bias is negative in the exchange rate while below 1.2580
• A close under 1.2440 is now needed to confirm a resumption of the broader decline
• Yesterday was a minor turn window
• A close over 1.2580 would turn us positive on EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the shot side while below 1.2580.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
EUR/USD	1.2355	1.2440	1.2510	1.2535	1.2580

AUD/USD

• AUD/USD rallied to its highest level in two-weeks yesterday before stalling just shy of .8800
• Our near-term trend bias is higher in the Aussie while above .8695
• A move through .8800 is needed to trigger a more important leg higher in the exchange rate
• A minor turn window is eyed today
• A close under .8695 would turn us negative on AUD/USD

AUD/USD Strategy: Square

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
AUD/USD	.8630	.8695	.8710	.8750	.8800

USD/CAD


The extreme positive sentiment picture in some of the main USD pairs at moment remains a concern and has us wondering whether the Buck can develop any real upside momentum with so much of the market looking for the same thing? This contrarian skepticism is countered a bit by our cyclical analysis which continues to point to general dollar upside in the weeks ahead. What to do? We like shifting some attention to the USD pairs that aren’t exhibiting sentiment extremes as they should be able to develop upside momentum a bit easier if the dollar does turn back up in earnest. One of the more interesting exchange rates on that front at the moment is USD/CAD. Following a successful break of the March high and test of the 127% extension of the March-July decline the pair has undergone what looks like a healthy correction. This has cleared out the negative sentiment situation pushing DSI figures in the CAD to a more neutral 36% Bulls (compared to 9% in GBP or 11% in JPY). A move back through 1.1355 (and possibly even 1.1325) over the next few days would get us excited about an upside resumption. However, sustained weakness under 1.1250 would warn the correction has more room to run.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points

• EUR/USD probes key upside pivot
• GBP/USD stalls after making a new low for the year
• USD/JPY fails just shy of 119.00

EUR/USD

• EUR/USD probed above key Gann resistance at 1.2580 yesterday
• Our near-term trend bias is negative in the exchange rate while below 1.2580
• A close under 1.2440 is needed to confirm a resumption of the broader decline and reinstill downside momentum in the pair
• A turn window is seen around the middle of next week
• A close over 1.2580 would turn us positive on EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.2580.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
EUR/USD	1.2440	1.2500	1.2540	1.2560	1.2580

GBP/USD

• GBP/USD fell to a new low for the year yesterday before rebounding from just under the 12th square root relationship of the year’s high 1.5620
• Our near-term trend bias is lower in GBP/USD while below 1.5840
• A close under 1.5620 is needed to signal that a new leg lower in the rate is underway
• A minor turn window is eyed today
• A close over the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.5840 would turn us positive on Cable

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the short side while under 1.5840.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
GBP/USD	1.5565	1.5620	1.5690	1.5720	1.5790

USD/JPY



With markets trending again (perhaps more importantly in the desired direction of the monetary authorities) there is a lot of excitement about a continuation of these trends into the end of the year. A so called “Santa Claus rally” so institutional managers can lock up performance fees. In the FX realm, Santa Claus is clearly focused on USD/JPY as I keep hearing of year-end targets of 125.00. Perhaps this year will be like all the rest, but I have a feeling it won’t. An abundance of key cyclical relationships in the yen all coincide in December (the first part of the month and the days before Christmas look the most significant). With sentiment towards the yen at some of the most extreme levels I have ever seen (JPY at single digit DSI on day, week, 2-week and 3-week time frames) USD/JPY is looking vulnerable to a decent shakeout next month. For the record, this year-end “surprise” would not be without precedent. Just take a look at the price action in USD/JPY from December of 2005 to see what can happen when the market as a whole is leaning the same way and looking for the same thing. Coincidentally 125.00 was a popular year-end Santa Claus rally target then too.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

• EURUSD 1.2230 and 1.2330 are big levels
• USDJPY rams into a Fibonacci level
• AUDUSD range favored above long term parallel

EUR/USD
Monthly



-BIG picture, monthly RSI has broken out of a triangle pattern. Sometimes, a pattern breakout in momentum (or OBV) precedes the breakout in price. The development’s implications are obviously significant.
-After following through on the 11/7 reversal and exceeding the 11/4 high, it appeared that EURUSD was going to make an attempt at an important 1.2665/85 Fib zone before selling returned. That all changed in the course of a few hours on Friday. Still, the monthly is displayed in order to highlight the importance of the area just below. The line from the 2010 and 2012 lows is near 1.2230 next week whilst the 2008 low looms at 1.2330.

GBP/USD
Daily



-“GBPUSD is at a crossroads. The trend is down against 1.6184 but recent activity warns of a turn. The rate carved a key reversal last week and action since the low is constructive (decline from 1.6184 found low at the 61.8% of prior rally). Exceeding 1.6184 would confirm a 3 week bottoming pattern and yield an objective near 1.65.”
-“The rate traded 1.6181 this week before sinking to new lows. Favor the downside as long as price is below trendline resistance.”

AUD/USD
Monthly



-“The combination of the .9400 figure and weekly RSI failing near 60 indicates a lot of overhead to punch through. Since the 2011 top, each RSI failure near 60 has led to a top or topping process (range for several weeks then a breakdown...that may be the case now).”
-“Weakness has extended below the line that extends off of the 2008 and 2014 lows, warning of something much more significant on the downside. The 10/29 outside day reversal keeps me looking lower. A new low would expose expansion objectives at .8476 and .8373.”
-“AUDUSD made fresh lows this week but Friday’s outside day reversal, at a long term median line parallel nonetheless, should not be ignored.” The rate continues to churn at the mentioned line. Clearly, this level is a tough nut to crack so respect potential for additional range trading.

NZD/USD
Weekly




-“Don’t forget about the line that extends off of the 1996 and 2007 highs. That line crosses through the 2008, 2011, and highs as well. In 2011 (record free float high), the rate surged through the line in late July before topping on August 1st. The rate reversed this week from pips below the record high and above the mentioned line.”
-“The gap from Labor Day 2013 has held as support but last week’s spike into .8034 (just shy of the February low at .8050) probably completed 3 weeks of consolidation. In other words, start looking lower again. Ultimately, weakness below .7370 would confirm a double top with an objective of .5898.”
-“The Bird traded under the 2013 low 2 weeks ago but be aware of slowing momentum (RSI divergence + RSI > 30 on the daily) and the ending diagonal from the 10/21 high.”

USD/JPY
Monthly



-USDJPY traded into an upper median line parallel this week as well as the 88.6% retracement of the decline from the 2007 high. The 61.8% of the decline from the 1998 high is at 120.12 and the gap measurement (from 11/3) yields 119.84. The 120 area does indeed appear significant. Know also that daily RSI has been above 75 for 16 consecutive days now. The only other time in history that has happened was in…September (for 17 days)! That streak ended on September 30th (1 day before a 500 point drop).

USD/CAD
Weekly



-“USDCAD traded to its best levels since July 2009 this week but finished in the middle of its range for the week. The close and weak momentum profile casts doubt regarding the validity of the breakout but continue to look higher as long as price is above 1.1080. The rate also encounters potential resistance near 1.1450 from the upward sloping line that connects the October and 2011 and March 2014 highs.”
-This trend high remains 1.1465, a few ticks above the mentioned upward sloping line. USDCAD is at support now but failure to hold 1.1120 opens up 1.10 (200 DMA and August high).

USD/CHF
Weekly



-“USDCHF weakness has reset the market for another rally attempt. Remember, USDCHF broke above the trendline that extends off of the 2001 and 2010 highs. Like EURUSD, USDCHF monthly RSI broke from a potentially long term basing pattern. As long as .9358 holds, look higher.”
-“.9740 could serve as resistance for the next top.” The top thus far is .9740 but reversal risk remains high as per sentiment (COT). Bullish risk is moved to .9530.



More...