Technical Analysis

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Treading Water After Hitting Three-Week Low
• S&P 500 Challenging Rising Trend Support Once Again
• Crude Oil, Gold Prices Stalling at Familiar Chart Levels

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continues to tread water after sliding to a three-week low last week. A daily close below the 11834-9 area (May 20 close, 50% Fibonacci retracement) exposes the 61.8% level at 11790. Alternatively, a push above the 38.2% Fib at 11887 clears the way for a test of the 23.6% retracement at 11946.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back to test rising trend line support set from late-March lows once again, a barrier reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2077.20. A break below that targets the 76.4% level at 2063.00. Alternatively, a turn above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 2093.50 targets the 38.2% threshold at 2107.70.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to tread water below the $1200/oz figure. A break below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1175.79 exposes the 38.2% level at 1165.62. Alternatively, a move above the 14.6% Fib at 1182.06 targets the June 10 high at 1192.23.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be resuming the recovery launched from mid-January lows after completing a Flag continuation pattern. Near-term resistance is at 66.69, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the 38.2% level at 70.25. Alternatively, a move below the 62.93-63.56 area (Flag top resistance-turned-support at, rising trend line) targets the 38.2% Fib retracement at 60.27.

-- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Continues to Oscillate in Familiar Trading Band
• S&P 500 Threatening to Overturn 3-Month Up Move Again
• Gold Drifts to Range Top, Crude Oil Stuck at Trend Support

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to digest losses after sliding to the weakest level in three weeks. Near-term support is at 11834-9 area (May 20 close, 50% Fibonacci retracement), with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 11790. Alternatively, a move above the 38.2% Fib at 11887 opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% retracement at 11946.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back to test rising trend line support set from late-March lows once again, a barrier reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2077.20. A break below that targets the 76.4% level at 2063.00. Alternatively, a turn above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 2093.50 targets the 38.2% threshold at 2107.70.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to tread water below the $1200/oz figure. A break above the June 10 high at 1192.23 exposes the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1197.47. Alternatively, a move below the 14.6% Fib expansion at 1182.06 targets the 23.6% threshold at 1175.79

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be resuming the recovery launched from mid-January lows after completing a Flag continuation pattern. Near-term resistance is at 66.69, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the 38.2% level at 70.25. Alternatively, a move below the 63.08-39 area (Flag top resistance-turned-support at, rising trend line) targets the 38.2% Fib retracement at 60.27.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Rebounds, Threatens Three-Month Down Trend
• S&P 500 Chart Setup Suggests Move Lower Brewing Ahead
• Gold Selloff Continues, Crude Oil Stuck in Familiar Range

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved higher as expected after producing a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 11888 exposes the 50% level at 11937. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 11829 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% level at 11792.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be preparing to turn lower as negative RSI divergence hints at ebbing upside momentum. A turn below trend line resistance-turned-support at 2099.10exposes the channel floor at 2085.40. Alternatively, a push above the 2127.60-37.10 area (May 19, June 18 highs) targets channel top resistance at 2155.00.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continued to push lower after erasing last week’s post-FOMC advance. From here, a break below the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1170.86 exposes the 61.8% level at 1162.64. Alternatively, a move above the 38.2% Fib at 1179.07 targets the 23.6% expansion at 1189.24.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke support guiding the recovery from mid-January, suggesting the longer-term down trend is resuming. From here, a break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 60.27 exposes the 50% level at 57.39. Alternatively, a move back above the trend line support-turned-resistance at 63.88 eyes the 23.6% Fib expansion at 66.69.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Revisits Weekly High, Hints at Further Gains Ahead
• S&P 500 Attempts Recovery After Snapping 3-Month Uptrend
• Crude Oil Setup Warns of Losses, Gold Breaks Range Support

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices advanced as expected after prices put in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 11937, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 11985.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to correct higher having turned downward as expected. From here, a move above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2083.60exposes the 50% level at 2092.40.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices edged through range support, ending a period of consolidation and seemingly opening the door for deeper losses ahead. A move below the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1162.64 exposes the 76.4% level at 1152.47.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices cleared rising trend line set from mid-January, hinting the down trend from the second half of 2014 may be resuming. A move below the 60.27-61.37 area (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, April 22 low) exposes the 50% level at 57.39. Alternatively, a turn back above the trend line – now at 63.84 – targets the 23.6% Fib expansion at 66.69.

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Pausing to Digest After Rising to One-Month High
• S&P 500 Rallies to Close Greece-Inspired Weekly Open Gap
• Crude Oil Drops Most Since November, Gold Still Flat-Lining

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved upward as expected after producing a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 11985 exposes the 76.4% level at 12044. Alternatively, a turn below the 50% Fib at 11937 clears the way for a test of the 38.2% level at 11888.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recovered to close the weekly opening gap that emerged in the wake of the outcome of Greece’s EU debt deal referendum over the weekend. From here, a break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2076.00 exposes the 50% level at 2086.30. Alternatively, a move below the 23.6% Fib at 2063.40 targets the 14.6% expansion at 2055.60.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate in familiar territory after probing the lowest level in four months. A daily close below the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1162.64 exposes the 76.4% level at 1152.47. Alternatively, a move above the 50% Fib at 1170.86 targets the 38.2% expansion at 1179.07.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices accelerated downward, issuing the largest daily decline in over seven months. From here, a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 54.50 exposes the 76.4% level at 50.94. Alternatively, a move back above the 50% Fib at 57.39 targets the 38.2% retracement at 60.27.

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Accelerating Higher en Route to June Swing High
• S&P 500 Rebuilding Downward Momentum After Correction
• Gold Drops to Four-Month Low, Crude Oil Digesting Losses

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices advanced as expected after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 11985, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 76.4% level at 12044. Alternatively, a move below the 50% Fib at 11937 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% level at 11888.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to rebuild downward momentum following a brief correction higher. A break below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2069.80 exposes the 38.2% level at 2058.90. Alternatively, a move above the July 2 high at 2087.40 targets channel floor support-turned-resistance at 2092.50.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices accelerated downward, testing the lowest levels in four months. A daily close below the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 1152.47 exposes the 100% level at 1136.03. Alternatively, a move above the 61.8% Fib at 1170.86 targets the 50% expansion at 1170.86.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are digesting losses after issuing the largest daily decline in over seven months. A break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 54.50 exposes the 76.4% level at 50.94. Alternatively, a move back above the 50% Fib at 57.39 targets the 38.2% retracement at 60.27.

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USD/JPY

• USD/JPY has rallied steadily since finding support at the 78.6% retracement of the May – June range at 120.40 last week
• Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 122.00
• A move through 123.70 is needed to set off the next leg higher in the rate
• A very minor turn window is eyed here
• A close under 122.00 would turn us negative again on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like buying on weakness against 122.00

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/JPY	122.00	122.65	123.55	123.75	124.40

AUD/USD

• AUD/USD continues to consolidate above Fibonacci support at .7375
• Our near-term trend bias is lower in the aussie while below .7555
• A move through .7375 is needed to trigger the next round of weakness
• A minor turn window is see early next week
• A daily close back over .7555 would turn us positive on AUD/USD

AUD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .7555

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
AUD/USD	.7375	.7400	.7455	.7485	.7555

S&P 500

The S&P 500 has continued with its recent trend of “having to go down before up”. After a very volatile few days last week with two successive closes below the 200-day moving average the index is suddenly again in a strong position. Yesterday’s move through a key confluence of resistance near 2100 (50-day moving average, median line channel, 61.8% retracement of May- July decline) was potentially an important change in behavior and warns a more meaningful move higher is taking shape. The 78.6% retracement of the May –July decline at 2116 is immediate resistance, but a close over 2130 is really needed to trigger an important upside push. Weakness back under 2087 would be a cause for concern.


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Talking Points

• USD/JPY approaches key pivot area
• GBP/USD stalls again at internal trendline
• XAU/USD nearing “value” zone?

USD/JPY

• USD/JPY continues to grind higher to trade at its highest level in almost a month
• Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 122.40
• The mid-June high around 124.40 and the 78.6% retracement of June – July decline at 124.70 represent the next big hurdle for the exchange rate
• A very minor turn window is eyed mid-week
• A close under 122.40 would turn us negative again on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 122.40

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/JPY	122.40	123.20	124.25	124.40	124.70

GBP/USD

• GBP/USD stalled last week at the internal trendline connecting the April/June lows
• Our near-term trend bias is lower in Cable while below 1.5700
• A move under 1.5485 is needed to re-instill some downside momentum into the exchange rate
• A very minor turn window is eyed mid-week
• A daily close over 1.5700 would turn us positive on the pound

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.5700

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
GBP/USD	1.5485	1.5550	1.5570	1.5700	1.5730

GOLD (Weekly)

“Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited.”
– George Soros

XAU/USD fell to a 5-year low today. I have said it before and I will say it again. I view gold as a form of CDS against some of the unproven (and potentially dangerous) monetary experiments being conducted by the world’s central banks. With the S&P 500 just off all-time highs and the Federal Reserve supposedly contemplating a move to policy normalization (taper tantrum was almost two years ago now) it is not that surprising to see gold doing what is doing. The markets as a whole want to believe in the (perceived) omnipotence of central banks. But to be fair what other choice do they have? The smackdown in gold is clearly just a natural extension of the “bullet proof” central bank trade. If my “Austrian view” of the world is correct then this thinking should soon be proven false. Soon being relative (think quarters and years not days). Under $1000 an ounce XAU/USD starts to look attractive again, but arguably XAU/EUR and XAU/JPY are much more important instruments to watch.

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Talking Points:

• S&P 500 Finds Interim Support, Tries to Launch Rebound
• Crude Oil, Gold Prices Consolidate After Suffering Losses

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices corrected higher, snapping a sharp three-day loss streak. A break above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 2097.80 exposes the 50% level at 2108.50. Alternatively, a move below the 23.6% Fib at 2084.70 targets the 14.6% expansion at 2076.60.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are digesting losses after sliding to the weakest level in over five years. A break below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1090.20 exposes the 23.6% level at 10778.10. Alternatively, a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement at 1103.00 targets channel floor support-turned-resistance at 1109.21.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to consolidate four days of consecutive losses delivered the lowest levels since February. A daily close below the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 52.37 exposes the 61.8% level at 50.66. Alternatively, a reversal above the 38.2% Fib at 54.08 targets the 23.6% expansion at 56.20.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points

• EUR/USD stalls ahead of important pivot
• USD/CAD stalls out after recording multi-years high

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

• EUR/USD continues to consolidate above critical support around 1.0800
• Our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while below 1.1100
• A daily close under 1.0800 is needed to set off a more important move lower in the euro
• A very minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
• A daily close above 1.1100 would turn us positive again on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.1100

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
EUR/USD	1.0800	1.0830	1.0950	1.0955	1.1100

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

• USD/CAD has pulled back from the decade highs recorded last week
• Our near-term trend bias is positive in funds while above 1.2980
• A move through 1.3225 is needed to set up a new leg higher in the exchange rate
• A minor turn window is seen tomorrow
• A daily below the 2nd square root relationship of last week’s at 1.2980 would turn us negative on USD/CAD

USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.2980

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/CAD	1.2980	1.3075	1.3105	1.3175	1.3225

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