Technical Analysis

Daily price is located below 100 day SMA/200 day SMA area for the bearish market condition: the price is ranging within 5541 support level and 6072 resistance level, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition to be continuing.

• If the price will break 6072 resistance level so the bullish reversal will be started.
• If price will break 5541 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
6072	5712
6463	5541

• "This highlights the particular link between the FTSE 100 and commodity prices, which are once again under pressure. This has caused the FTSE to slide below last Thursday’s low of 5887 and by doing so has potentially ended the bullish rally that was started on January 20."
• "The technical trend for today is neutral to bullish above the January 27 low of 5866. The FTSE may recuperate some of yesterday’s losses and reach the psychological level of 6000, while a break to 5866 should make it relatively straightforward for the index to reach the January 26 low of 5771."
• "A strong bounce in the Caixin China PMI Services takes it to 52.4 from 50.2, Japan PMI Services rose to 52.4 from 51.5, while German PMI Services declined to 55 from 55.4. These reports are strong and stock market supportive."

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 5541 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 6072 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish


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Gold is back on the radar screen of some risk-averse U.S. investors but it's rating much higher in several other countries were a modern-day gold rush appears to have started.

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Daily price was on bear marker rally within the primary bearish market condition since the end of January this year, and the price is started to break 200-day SMA from below to above for the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish condition. If the price breaks 15.43 resistance so the bullish reversal will be started.

• "Silver prices are consolidating after yesterday’s strong gains and traders will probably see a break to yesterday’s high of $14.49 as an opportunity to add to their bullish exposure. On a break to the high, silver may reach the October 9 low of 15.62. A move higher is also suggested given the correlation to gold prices, a simple linear regression analysis suggesting that silver is trading at a discount to gold, and should be trading at $15.98 on gold prices trading at or above $1192 dollar per ounce."
• "The alternative scenario is for silver to give back 50% of yesterday’s gains, taking price to the $15.19 to $15.30 range, and it is here that the risk/reward ratio favours long positions. For price to end its bullish momentum, it would need to break below yesterday’s low of $14.90, and in this scenario price may reach Friday’s low of $14.68."

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Daily price is on bear market rally" The price is located below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary rally. Price is breaking 5890 resistance to above for the rally to be continuing with the Chinkou Span line crossing the price from below to above for the good breakout to be started with the possible daily bullish reversal.

• "The FTSE 100 has now reached the February 4 high of 5945, which also was our target on a break to the 5880 high. Today, the index has been lifted by strong gains in the Technology, Communications and Financials Sectors. The biggest of the gains seen today, adding 4 index points, is Glencore PLC, followed by Vodafone PLC which added 3.67 points to the FTSE. The biggest laggard is National Grid (-0.83 index points)."
• "However, price momentum is strong and as long as the FTSE 100 trades above yesterday’s low of 5802, we may reach the psychological level of 6000. Traders will most likely use a pullback to the 5880 level as an opportunity to add to their bullish exposure, while a break to yesterday’s low of 5802 may trigger a trend reversal and a decline to the 5700 level."

Absolute Strange indicator is estimating the bear market rally to be continuing.

If D1 price will break 5541 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 6072 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the bullish condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.



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The CAC40 is poised to continue its rally for the week, with the Index working to close higher for the fifth straight trading day. As of this morning, the CAC40 is trading up .81% on the day. So far, Cap Gemini (Ticker CAP) shares are leading the way, with the stock trading up 5.41 %. Tech sector shares have continued to perform well relative to the broader market and have the biggest gain by sector.

Technical traders should continue to monitor key values of resistance as the CAC40 continues its advance. Next resistance for the Index is the psychological 4,300. A break above this value will potentially open up a broader bullish move to test the February standing high which is found at 4,435.

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W1 price is located below 200 period SMA and below 100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition with secondary ranging within Fibo resistance level at 15.90 and Fibo support level at 13.64. Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for direction, and RSI indicator is estimating the secondary bear market rally to be started within the primary bullish market condition.

If the price will break Fibo support level at 13.64 so the primary bearish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 15.90 from below to above so the local uptrend as the market rally will be started within the primary bearish market condition with the good possibility to the bullish reversal in the future.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Trend:

W1 - ranging bearish

The trend off the February low remains solidly intact as long as the S&P can maintain above the trend-line extending back below the 2/24 swing low to the 2/11 bottom. If it undercuts trend-line support it doesn't necessarily mean the picture turns outright bearish, but it will raise a caution flag to the bulls' case while providing some short-term ammo for the bears. In this event, a move towards the 2/24 low at 1890 becomes increasingly probable.

1890 is important

1890 is effectively the line-in-the-sand from we sit before the current leg higher becomes undermined in a material fashion. Ideally, if the market is to trade higher, then the S&P 500 will cleanly carve out another higher low at or above t-line support, or at least without making a serious assault on 1890.

Development which could offer entry soon

The move lower off the Friday high could offer up a channel/bull-flag worth sinking our teeth into upon further development. Thus far this possibility is working its way towards reality as we could find the S&P wedged up between the top-side parallel off the 2/26 high and rising t-line off the 2/11 low.

Dips to trend support and a breakout above the upper parallel offer points of entry from the long-side. A break below trend support will give cause for pause.

A break higher brings 1971 (2/26 high) into focus, with a larger move taking the market towards the all-important area surrounding 2000.

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Talking Points:

• USD/CNH Technical Strategy: Flat
• Prices may be forming a double bottom after descending to a monthly low
• Clouded fundamental outlook, adverse risk/reward setup argue for inaction

The US Dollar has paused to digest losses after two days of heavy selling brought prices to retest the swing bottom established in mid-February. An Inverted Hammer candlestick hints at indecision and may precede an upside reversal, but confirmation is absent for the time being.

Near-term support is at 0.4945, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 6.4547. Alternatively, a move back above the 14.6% Fib at 6.5190 sees the next upside barrier at 6.5589, the February 29 high.


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The DAX 30 has an underlying bullish trend since mid-February and as long as it trades above the March 10 low of 9397 it may drift higher. The January 13 high of 10,166 is resistance and this is followed by the January 5 high of 10,395. These two levels are potential targets for the bullish trend.

As the trend is bullish, a short-term decline, like to the 9745 to 9662 range may be of temporary nature, as traders start to see this as an opportunity to add to their bullish exposure.
These two levels are derived using the Fibonacci retracement tool, with the March 10 low of 9397 and the March 21 high of 10,100both used as reference points.

On the German DAX extending below the March 10 low of 9397, the bullish trend may have ended and price might not find support until the next low, the February 24 low of 9122, lends its support.


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The FTSE 100 has now spent more than three week’s trading around the same levels. While this is hardly encouraging for day trading, low volatility episodes tend to be followed by high ones. We also note that the longer a market trades sideways, the stronger a potential move could be, usually following a break to the range. The EURCHF debacle of January 2015 is an extreme example of this idea.

Which are the critical levels for the FTSE 100?

The highest price point over the last three weeks is the March 18 high, while the lowest level over the same period is last week’s low of 6006.

On a break to 6006, we may see volatility pick up as described above, as not only is it the lower end of the range over the last few weeks, but is also the trend defining level.

A break to last week’s low would place all long positions since March 2 at a loss, as all of them have been exercised above the low. This could stress traders to shift out their losing long positions and thereby trigger even lower prices.
A break to last week’s low of 6006 may therefore turn the trend bearish and generate a slide to the next support level, which is the February 24 low of 5839.

On price remaining above the low of last week, the FTSE 100 may drift higher. However, it is important to note that a break to the March 18 high might not ensure a strong resurgence in volatility. We saw on March 4, March 17, and March 18 that a higher high did not in these cases spur the trend to firm.
Instead, the FTSE 100 may continue to drift higher but without a strong pick up in volatility. The last resistance level, where price reversed, was the December 29 high of 6322, and could be where the FTSE 100 may now be headed.


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