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Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on Technical Analysis within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; The Nikkei 225 fell very sharply though October, as did many other global indexes, as a wave of trade-inspired risk ...

          
   
  1. #751
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    Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Weekly Breakdown

    The Nikkei 225 fell very sharply though October, as did many other global indexes, as a wave of trade-inspired risk aversion took its toll. The Tokyo stock benchmark is now more than 2,500 points below its 2018 peak, which was the 24,441 reached on October 1. However, the point at which its fall has so far halted is an interesting one. The 20,767.6 level reached in intraday trade on October 29 and 26 is just about exactly the second, 28.3% Fibonacci retracement of the rise up to this year's highs from the lows of June 2016.

    Technical Analysis-japanindex-w1-fx-choice-limited.png


    That level has survived two downside tests in the past week and seems to be providing strong support.
    Still, the Nikkei remains under near-term pressure for as long as it remains within the daily chart downtrend channel which has contained trade on the way down from October's peaks.

    At present, it is threatening to break above it, but has yet to do so conclusively. If it can on a daily or weekly closing basis then the bulls can once again dream of consolidating within the old range shown on the chart above. From there they might be able to build a platform from which to take on those highs again.

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    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Daily Breakout

    In the aftermath of EUR/GBP's largest climb in a single day since June 2016, the pair is attempting to overturn its dominant downtrend. Looking at the daily chart below, the Euro climbed against the British Pound above the descending trend line from August. However, further upside progress was notably lacking and EUR/GBP was unable to push above the October high.

    Technical Analysis-eurgbp-d1-alpari-international-limited.png


    In its attempt to do that, a horizontal range of resistance has formed between 0.89235 and 0.89394 (green range below). This is preventing the pair from confirming the break above the falling trend line from August. There are warning signs that this resistance area may hold, sending EUR/GBP lower and causing it to resume the dominant downtrend.

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    Weekly Technical Forecast: Many Markets at Risk of Breaks

    Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and EUR/AUD Trend Lines Broken
    Fading momentum in the Australian Dollar preceded losses against the greenback, Japanese Yen and Euro. With trend lines broken, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and EUR/AUD may extend their reversals.

    Technical Analysis-audusd-d1-alpari-international-limited.png

    British Pound Forecast: Sterling Remains Weak
    Both the four-hour and daily GBP/USD chart point to lower prices ahead with a re-test of the 1.2660 low on the cards.

    Technical Analysis-gbpusd-w1-alpari-international-limited.png

    Euro Forecast: Bottoming Efforts Under Way in Several Crosses
    The Euro has seemingly halted its decline since early-October, setting the stage for bottoming efforts in several EUR-crosses, including EUR/USD.

    Technical Analysis-eurusd-h4-alpari-international-limited.png

    Equities Forecast: Technical Forecast for the S&P 500, Dow Jones, DAX 30 & FTSE
    Last week was a wild one and next could be too, but volatility may diminish a bit as long as support levels hold.

    Technical Analysis-dax30-d1-alpari-international-limited.png

    Gold Forecast: Price Breakout Approaching Initial Targets
    A breach above the November range takes gold prices near five-month highs. Here are the targets & invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts next week.

    Oil Forecast: WTI Holds Near $50/bbl; Bounce May Very Well Be Bull Trap
    A sharp drop appears to have found support near $50/bbl. despite increasingly worrisome signs about global demand in 2019 possibly indicating a short-term low is in place.

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    Australian Dollar, ASX 200 With RBA Rate Cuts in 2019

    The Australian Dollar has lacked interest rate support for much of 2018, and the situation could worsen into the new year.

    In public the Reserve Bank of Australia still insists that the most likely next move will be an increase in the record low, 1.50% Official Cash Rate. That has been unchanged since August 2016 and is already the longest unchanged base rate in modern Australian history.

    Lower rates need not be bad news for the Australian stock market- a the very least they should support consumer spending. However, the ASX 200 tends to move very much with general risk appetite in any case which is why it currently languishes at new 2018 lows. The country’s financial sector is heavily weighted within the index, and that would certainly not welcome any move lower for the OCR.

    Technical Analysis-asx200-d1-alpari-international-limited.png


    In any case the ASX’s monthly chart shows a precipitous fall form this year’s peaks, arrested so far by support at the lows of July-November, 2016. It’s notable also that upward channel support from February of that year has been conclusively trashed.

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Daily Reversal

    The Euro failed to make good on an attempted break higher from a range confining price action against the US Dollar since late October. The pair briefly breached resistance in the 1.1456-81 area but the upswing ran out of steam on a test of trend line resistance set from January 2018. A test of this barrier produced a bearish Evening Star candlestick, which was soon followed by a drop back into familiar territory.

    Technical Analysis-eurusd-h4-metaquotes-software-corp-2.png


    Sellers are now eyeing counter-trend support guiding the upswing from lows set in mid-November. A daily close below this barrier – now at 1.1328 – would suggest the dominant long-term decline is ready to be reasserted. The first downside hurdle to follow is the November 12 low at 1.1216, followed by a support shelf in the 1.1110-32 zone.

    The 1.1456-81 region is back as immediate resistance. Another foray above it would open the door for a test of 1.1554. This appears to be a pivotal spot for bears, marking the intersection of trend line resistance and a chart inflection area in play since November 2017. Establishing a foothold above this would go a long way toward de-fusing immediate selling pressure.

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    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    Technical Analysis-eurgbpdaily.png


    EUR/GBP continues to make cautious progress to the upside in the aftermath of a bullish candlestick pattern. This followed a push above a descending resistance line from earlier in January which was since resulted in gains of about 2.11% at the time of this writing.

    Technical Analysis-eurgbpmonthly.png


    In the meantime, EUR/GBP finds itself in a horizontal resistance range between 0.88384 and 0.88108. This area consists of the lows achieved back in November 2018. This was then retested in the middle of January. A close above this area may open the door to climbing to 0.89225 next, which is the lower boundary of the next area of resistance.

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