Technical Analysis

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Stalls at Former Support After Corrective Recovery
• S&P 500 Continues to Tread Water Below Familiar Range Top
• Gold May Be Topping, Crude Oil Declines Most in Two Weeks

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices stalled on a retest of a pivotal trend line after correcting upward from a monthly low. Near-term resistance is in the 12027-49 area (23.6% Fibonacci expansion, trend line), with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 12089. Alternatively, a turn below the 14.6% expansion at 11989 clears the way for a test of the 50% Fib retracement at 11950.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to hover below resistance in the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% Fibonacci expansion, February 25 high). A break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 2154.90. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 2084.00 targets the March 12 low at 2040.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be carving out a bearish Head and Shoulders top chart pattern. Confirmation is required on a daily close below 1185.23, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with the first downside target thereafter coming in the 38.2% level (1161.16). Near-term resistance is at 1224.15, the April 6 high.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower anew having found resistance below the $65/barrel figure. Near-term support is at 60.25, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 57.37. Alternatively, a move back above the 14.6% Fib at 62.03 targets the April 16 high at 64.91.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Rebound Capped at Trend Line Resistance Barrier
• S&P 500 Waiting for Direction Cues Within Familiar Range
• Crude Oil in Digestion Mode, Gold Nears Top Confirmation

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices transitioned into digestion mode after bouncing to retest a recently broken rising trend. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 12027 exposes the trend line support-turned-resistance at 12058. Alternatively, a move below the 14.6% expansion at 11989 opens the door for a challenge of the 50% Fib retracement at 11950.retracement at 11950.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to hover below resistance in the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% Fibonacci expansion, February 25 high). A break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 2154.90. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 2084.00 targets the March 12 low at 2040.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be carving out a bearish Head and Shoulders top chart pattern. Confirmation is required on a daily close below 1185.23, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with the first downside target thereafter coming in the 38.2% level (1161.16). Near-term resistance is at 1224.15, the April 6 high.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices transitioned back into consolidation mode after recoiling lower from resistance near the $65/barrel figure. A break below the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 61.46 exposes the 38.2% level at 59.35. Alternatively, a move above the 63.56-73 area (61.8% Fib, April 16 close) targets the 76.4% expansion at 66.16.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Sinks to Lowest Level in Nearly Three Months
• S&P 500 Double Top May Be Established Below 2200.00
• Gold Stalls Above $1200/oz, Crude Oil May Turn Lower

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined for a sixth consecutive day, dropping to the weakest level in nearly three months. Near-term support is at 11754, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 138.2% level at 11719. Alternatively, a rebound above the 100% Fib at 11809 clears the way for a test of the 76.4% threshold at 11864.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting a double top is forming at 2119.40 (February 25 high). Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2093.50 exposes the 50% level at 2083.50. Alternatively, a move above trend line resistance at 2108.50 targets 2119.40 anew.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to build upward anew after reclaiming a foothold above the $1200/oz figure. A break above the April 28 high at 1215.00 exposes the April 6 top at 1224.15. Alternatively, a turn below falling channel top resistance-turned-support at 1197.38 targets the March 31 low at 1178.38.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Negative RSI divergence hints prices may be readying to turn lower anew. A break below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 63.53 exposes the 23.6% level at 61.60. Alternatively, a move above the 76.4% Fib expansion at 66.16 targets the 100% threshold at 70.36.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Snaps Six-Day Losing Streak, Hints at Bounce Ahead
• S&P 500 Turns Downward as Expected, Sinks to Two-Week Low
• Gold Revisits Range Support, Crude Oil Prices Resume Recovery

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices snapped a six-day losing streak, forming a bullish Piercing Line candle pattern and hinting at a rebound ahead. A daily close above the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 11809 exposes the 76.4% level at 11864. Alternatively, a move below the 123.6% Fib at 11754 opens the door for a challenge of the 138.2% expansion at 11719.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting a double top is forming at 2119.40 (February 25 high). A break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 2083.50 exposes the 61.8% level at 2073.50. Alternatively, a move above the 38.2% Fib at 2093.50 targets trend line resistance at 2108.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at 1178.38 marked by the March 31 low once again. A break below this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1161.16. Alternatively, a move above the April 28 high at 1215.00 targets the April 6 top at 1224.15.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed higher anew, with buyers now aiming for the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 68.91. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 71.24. Alternatively, a move below the 23.6% Fib at 66.03 targets the 14.6% expansion at 64.25.





--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Positioning Hints Prices May Return to the Offensive
• S&P 500 Struggling to Make Good on Bearish Reversal Setup
• Crude Oil Consolidating, Gold Bounces from Familiar Support

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned higher as expected after producing a bullish Piercing Line candle pattern. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 11901 exposes the 50% level at 11951. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% level at 11839 opens the door for a challenge of the 14.6% Fib at 11801.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are struggling to maintain downward momentum after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern but the setup remains technically valid for now, warning that a double top may yet be confirmed at 2119.40 (February 25 high). A break below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2081.10 exposes the 23.6% level at 2053.40. Alternatively, a move back above 2119.40 targets the 23.6% Fib expansion at 2149.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices found support at a familiar range floor above $1175/oz once again. From here a push above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1190.47 exposes the 38.2% level at 1196.26. Alternatively, a move below the 61.8% Fib at 1184.69 targets the 76.4% Fib at 1177.53.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are digesting gains after rising to the highest level in five months. A break above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 67.55 exposes the 61.8% level at 69.01. Alternatively, a move below the 38.2% Fib at 66.09 targets the 23.6% expansion at 64.29.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Snaps Three-Day Win Streak, Returns to the Defensive
• S&P 500 Rejected at Resistance, Bolstering Double Top Scenario
• Gold Stuck in Familiar Range, Crude Oil Rises to 5-Month High

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are under pressure once again having rebounded as expected after showing a bullish Piercing Line candle pattern. Near-term support is at 11837, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11799. Alternatively, a move above the 38.2% Fib retracement at 11901 clears the way for a test of the 50% threshold at 11951.




S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are waiting for downside follow-through after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, warning that a double top may yet be confirmed at 2119.40 (February 25 high). A break below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2081.10 exposes the 23.6% level at 2053.40. Alternatively, a move back above 2119.40 targets the 23.6% Fib expansion at 2149.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are cautiously probing higher after finding support at a familiar range floor above $1175/oz once again. From here, a push above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1196.26 exposes the 23.6% level at 1203.42. Alternatively, a move below the 50% Fib at 1190.47 targets the 61.8% Fib at 1184.69.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to push higher, testing the strongest levels in five months. A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 69.01 exposes the 76.4% level at 70.81. Alternatively, a move below the 50% Fib at 67.55 targets the 38.2% expansion at 66.09.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Eyes April Low After Brief Attempt at Bounce Fizzles
• S&P 500 Sinks to Monthly Low as Double Top Potential Builds
• Crude Oil Chart Setup Warns of Possible Topping Below $70.00

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are on pace to test April’s swing bottom anew after a second consecutive day of heavy losses. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 11737 exposes the 50% level at 11688. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% level at 11799 opens the door for a challenge of the 14.6% Fib at 11837.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are edging lower as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, warning that a double top may be taking shape. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2065.70 exposes the 50% level at 2047.10. Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% Fib at 2088.70 targets the February 25 high at 2119.40.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to oscillate in a choppy range around the $1200/oz figure. A break below range support at 1178.09 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1161.16. Range resistance remains at 1214.64.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 67.55, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, hinting at ebbing upside momentum and warning that a move downward may be ahead. A break below the 38.2% level at 66.09 exposes the 23.6% Fib at 64.29. Alternatively, a push above the 67.55 targets the 61.8% expansion at 69.01.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Gains Most Since Mid-March, Breaks Monthly Trend
• S&P 500 in Digestion Mode After Establishing New Record High
• Gold Drops Most in 3 Weeks, Crude Oil Back Below $65 Figure

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices issued the largest daily advance in two months, breaking above trend line resistance. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 11836 exposes the 50% level at 11898. Alternatively, a reversal below the 11748-59 area (range support, 23.6% Fib) opens the door for a challenge of the 14.6% retracement at 11711.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating after breaking range resistance and setting a new record high. From here, a daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 2140.70 exposes the 61.8% level at 2159.30. Alternatively, a move back below the 38.2% Fib at 2122.10 targets the 23.6% expansion at 2099.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned sharply lower, putting in the largest daily decline in three weeks. From here, a daily close below the 23.6% Fib expansion at 1193.38 targets the 1169.31-78.09 area (38.2% level, March 31 low). Alternatively, a turn above the 14.6% Fib at 1208.22 aims for the May 18 high at 1232.30.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower anew, slipping back below the $65/barrel figure. From here, a daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement exposes the 38.2% level at 60.27. Alternatively, a move above the 14.6% retracement at 66.03 targets the 14.6% Fib expansion at 67.78.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar May Be Preparing to Resume Correction Lower
• S&P 500 Awaits Direction Cues After Hitting Record High
• Crude Oil Drifts to Range Top, Gold Still Treading Water

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be preparing to turn lower anew following the formation of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 11773 exposes the 23.6% level at 11725. Alternatively, a reversal above the 38.2% Fib retracement at 11836 opens the door for a challenge of the 50% threshold at 11898.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating after breaking range resistance and setting a new record high. From here, a daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 2140.70 exposes the 61.8% level at 2159.30. Alternatively, a move back below the 38.2% Fib at 2122.10 targets the 23.6% expansion at 2099.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating after issuing the largest daily decline in three weeks. A close below trend line resistance-turned-support at 1205.90 exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1193.38. Near-term resistance is at 1232.30, the May 18 high.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain locked in a choppy consolidation range below the $70/barrel figure. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement exposes the 38.2% level at 60.27. Alternatively, a move above trend line resistance at 67.69 targets the 23.6% Fib expansion at 69.70.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Continues to Push Upward, Setting Monthly High
• S&P 500 Declines to Challenge Two-Month Uptrend Support
• Gold Drops Below $1200/oz, Crude Oil Back at Range Floor

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices re-accelerated upward, advancing to the highest level in a month. Near-term resistance is at 11960, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 76.4% level at 12037. Alternatively, a turn back below the 50% Fib at 11898 clears the way for a test of the 38.2% retracement at 11836.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned sharply lower, moving to challenge the rising trend in place since mid-March. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2100.00 exposes the 50% level at 2088.60. Alternatively, a move above the 23.6% Fib at 2114.20 targets the 14.6% retracement at 2122.90.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices accelerated downward anew, with sellers claiming a foothold below the $1200/oz figure. A close below range support at 1178.09 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1169.31. Alternatively, a rebound above the 23.6% level at 1193.38 targets trend line support-turned-resistance at 1204.98.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain locked in a choppy consolidation range below the $70/barrel figure. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement exposes the 38.2% level at 60.27. Alternatively, a move above trend line resistance at 66.40 targets the May 6 high at 69.60.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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