Technical Analysis

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Continues to Tread Water at February Low
• S&P 500 Stalls After Sliding to Two-Month Support
• Gold Prices May Be Readying to Decline Once Again

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, with prices digesting losses near monthly lows. A daily close below the 11858-86 area (23.6% Fibonacci retracement, March 18 low) exposes the 38.2% level at 11679. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 12066 clears the way for a test of the 12149-77 zone (23.6% threshold, March 13 high).



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below February’s swing high. A daily close belowchannel floor support at 2060.50 exposes the March 12 low at 2040.10. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2084.00 targets the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% level, February 25 high).



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be preparing to turn lower after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1181.51 exposes the 14.6% level at 1166.67. Alternatively, a reversal above the 38.2% Fib at 1205.58 targets the 50% retracement at 1225.04.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices reversed sharply lower after finding resistance below the $60/barrel figure. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 55.77 exposes the 50% level at 54.53. Alternatively, a reversal above the March 26 high at 59.75 targets the February 17 high at 62.98.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points

• EUR/USD fails again at key Gann level
• US DOLLAR rebounds from key support zone
• Important cycle turn window coming up for the S&P 500

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

• EUR/USD failed again last week at Gann resistance in the 1.1040 area
• Our near-term trend bias is positive on the euro while above 1.0760
• A move through 1.1040 is needed to set off a more serious advance
• A minor turn window is eyed around the latter part of the week
• Only weakness below 1.0760 would turn us negative again on the euro.

EUR/USD Strategy: Link the long side while over 1.0760.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
EUR/USD	1.0760	1.0800	1.0845	1.0950	1.1040

US DOLLAR INDEX

• US DOLLARhas traded steadily higher after finding support at a key trendline in the 11,900 area
• Our near-term trend bias is lower in the index while below 12,015
• Weakness below 11,830 needed to set off a more serious decline
• A very minor turn window is eyed Wednesday
• A close over 12,015 would turn us positive again on the dollar

US DOLLAR Strategy: Like the short side while below 12,015 (closing basis).

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
US DOLLAR	11,830	11,900	12,015	12,015	12,050

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500



April is shaping up to be an interesting period for the S&P 500. A host of important long-term cyclical relationships should influence throughout April, but the first few days and last few days of the month look to be especially important. The first real test for the market will come around the end of this week as a perfect 3,141 “pi cycle” trading day count from the October 2002 low in the index should influence the market. Interestingly this relationship will coincide with the release of US March payrolls data. What this will mean for the index is the tricky part as it is stuck in a pretty clear range at the moment. Our general modus operandi around these key cyclical periods or windows is to look to fade the prevailing trend. There isn’t really one at the moment to fade, though a break of 2040 or a push back over 2119 would start to get us looking for a potential reversal.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Jumps Higher from Monthly LowSupport
• S&P 500 Attempts to Resume Six-Week Rising Trend
• Gold Accelerates Lower, Crude Oil Digesting Losses

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to rebuild upside momentum after correcting downward as expected. Near-term resistance is at 12066, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 12149-77 zone (23.6% level, March 13 high). Alternatively, a reversal below the 11858-86 area (23.6% Fib retracement, March 18 low)clears the way for a test of the 38.2% threshold at 11679.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to rebuild upside momentum after falling as expected following the appearance of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2084.00 exposes the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% level, February 25 high). Alternatively, a move belowchannel floor support at 2062.60 targets the March 12 low at 2040.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1180.90 exposes the 38.2% level at 1156.83. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% expansion at 1195.74 targets the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1205.58.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices reversed sharply lower after finding resistance below the $60/barrel figure. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 55.77 exposes the 50% level at 54.53. Alternatively, a reversal above the March 26 high at 59.75 targets the February 17 high at 62.98.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points

• EUR/USD nearing important downside pivots
• USD/CAD approaching former highs
• Greenback closing in on important retracement level

EUR/USD

• EUR/USD has come under steady pressure since failing last week at Gann resistance in the 1.1040 area
• Our near-term trend bias will turn negative on the euro on a close below 1.0760
• A move back through 1.0900 is needed to trigger a renewed push higher in the exchange rate
• A minor turn window is eyed on Thursday

EUR/USD Strategy: Square

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
EUR/USD	1.0585	1.0685	1.0740	1.0800	1.0900

USD/CAD

• USD/CAD has traded steadily higher after finding support at a key trendline in the 1.2425 area
• Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/CAD while above 1.2475
• A close above 1.2780 is needed to confirm that a new leg higher is underway in Funds
• A very minor turn window is eyed Thursday
• A close under 1.2475 would turn us negative on USD/CAD

USD/CAD Strategy: Square

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/CAD	1.2475	1.2645	1.2730	1.2780	1.2830

US Dollar Index



The last few days of the quarter are always interesting (or are supposed to be) in the FX markets especially when there has been a strong trend over the preceding three months. The end of Q12015 is so far living up to the hype as there has been a decent run into USD over the last 24 hours or so. The real test for the Buck will probably come after the 4pm BST WMR and whether it can hold onto these gains and continue to take out resistance levels. The 78.6% retracement of the month-to-date range near 12,100 in the FXCM US Dollar Index looks like an important pivot with traction above this level needed to confirm that that the broader trend is indeed trying to re-assert itself. A failure there followed by weakness under 11,980 would keep the door open to a further possible correction in the dollar.


--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Snaps 4-Day Win Streak at Chart Resistance
• S&P 500 Awaits Next Catalyst at March Swing Bottom
• Gold Jumps Most in 2 Months, Crude Oil Stuck Sub-$60

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to digest gains, snapping a four-day winning streak. Near-term resistance is at 12066, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 12149-77 zone (23.6% level, March 13 high). Alternatively, a reversal below the 11858-86 area (23.6% Fib retracement, March 18 low)clears the way for a test of the 38.2% threshold at 11679.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the March 12low at 2040.10 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2004.60. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 2084.00 targets the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% threshold, February 25 high).



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled sharply higher after declining as expected following the appearance of a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1205.58 exposes the 50% level at 1225.04. Alternatively, a push below the 23.6% Fib expansion at 1180.90 targets the 38.2% threshold at 1156.83.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to tread water below the $60/barrel figure. A close above the March 26 high at 59.75 exposes the February 17 top at 62.98. Alternatively, a push below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 52.76 targets the 23.6% level at 46.47.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Chart Positioning Warns of Weakness Ahead
• S&P 500 Treading Water Above March Swing Bottom
• Crude Oil Sees Support Below $53, Gold Bounce Stalls

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be readying to turn lower after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 11858-86 area (March 18 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) exposes the 38.2% level at 11679. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 12066 opens the door for a challenge of the 12149-77 zone (March 13 high, 23.6% threshold).



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the March 12low at 2040.10 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2004.60. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 2084.00 targets the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% threshold, February 25 high).



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled sharply higher after declining as expected following the appearance of a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1205.58 exposes the 50% level at 1225.04. Alternatively, a push below the 23.6% Fib expansion at 1180.90 targets the 38.2% threshold at 1156.83.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to tread water below the $60/barrel figure. A close above the March 26 high at 59.75 exposes the February 17 top at 62.98. Alternatively, a push below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 52.76 targets the 23.6% level at 46.47.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Starts Making Good on Bearish Chart Cues
• S&P 500 Continues to Wait for Clarity Near March Low
• Gold Poised to Extend Gains, Crude Oil Consolidating

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Near-term support is in the 11858-86 area (March 18 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 11679. Alternatively, a turn above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 12066 clears the way for a test of the 12149-77 zone (March 13 high, 23.6% threshold).



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the March 12low at 2040.10 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2004.60. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 2084.00 targets the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% threshold, February 25 high).



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices look poised to continue higher after clearing resistance at 1210.35, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. From here, a daily close above the 50% level at 1231.28 exposes the 61.8% Fib at 1252.22. Alternatively, a reversal back below 1210.35 targets the March 31 low at 1178.38.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to tread water below the $60/barrel figure. A close above the March 26 high at 59.75 exposes the February 17 top at 62.98. Alternatively, a push below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 52.76 targets the 23.6% level at 46.47.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Finds Interim Support, Snaps 3-Day Loss Streak
• S&P 500 Rebounds from Support But Fails to Break Range
• Crude Oil, Gold Aim Higher After Breaking Chart Barriers

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after prices produced a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 11858-86 area (March 18 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) exposes the 38.2% level at 11679. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 12066 opens the door for a challenge of the 12149-77 zone (March 13 high, 23.6% threshold).



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating after moving lower as expected following the appearance of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the March 12low at 2040.10 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2004.60. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 2084.00 targets the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% threshold, February 25 high).



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices look poised to continue higher after clearing resistance at 1210.35, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. From here, a daily close above the 50% level at 1231.28 exposes the 61.8% Fib at 1252.22. Alternatively, a reversal back below 1210.35 targets the March 31 low at 1178.38.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are aiming to test resistance at 59.35, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, after pushing above the 23.6% level at 56.75. A daily close above resistance exposes the 50% Fib at 61.45. Alternatively, a reversal back below 56.75 targets the 14.6% expansion at 55.15.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Trying to Renew Uptrend After Correcting Lower
• S&P 500 Fails to Hold Above Near-Term Range Top Again
• Gold Digesting Gains, Crude Oil Eyes Resistance Above $59

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices areattempting to launch a recovery after moving downward as expected. Near-term support is in the 11858-86 area (March 18 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 11679. Alternatively, a turn above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 12066 clears the way for a test of the 12149-77 zone (March 13 high, 23.6% threshold).



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating after moving lower as expected following the appearance of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the March 12low at 2040.10 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2004.60. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 2084.00 targets the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% threshold, February 25 high).



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to digest gains after rising to test the highest level since mid-February. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1216.99 exposes the 61.8% level at 1226.11. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 1207.88 targets the 23.6% expansion at 1196.61.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are aiming to test resistance at 59.35, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, after pushing above the 23.6% level at 56.75. A daily close above resistance exposes the 50% Fib at 61.45. Alternatively, a reversal back below 56.75 targets the 14.6% expansion at 55.15.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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• EURUSD behavior change on the horizon?
• GBPUSD 2nd large range weekly reversal in recent weeks
• USDCAD largest volume (FXCM) week ever

EUR/USD
Daily



-“EURUSD rolled over at slope resistance but several longer term technical observations are worthy of note; the rate found low at an important long term level (line off of 2008 and 2010 lows) and the ownership profile (as per COT) is at a record. The speculative crowd has never been more bearish…ever. Such conditions typically precede important reversals…although not necessarily right away. A break above the resistance lines (old support) would indicate that behavior has significantly changed and open up a run on 1.13.

GBP/USD
Weekly



-“1.4350 remains of interest but daily and weekly divergence with momentum at price lows cast doubt on whether GBPUSD reaches that level.” The sharp turn higher (and pending weekly reversal) is promising for longer term bottoming prospects, especially in light of the mentioned divergence and 2 large range weekly reversals in the last 5 weeks.

AUD/USD
Weekly



-“AUDUSD continues to trade between well-defined slope lines but beware of a possible broadening bottom (very difficult pattern to trade).”
-“Trade outside of the bearish upper parallel that has contained strength since late October would shift focus to a former support line (turned resistance in January) near .8180.” AUDUSD is pressing the mentioned upper parallel now…it’s decision time for AUDUSD.

NZD/USD
Weekly



-“NZDUSD traded to the 61.8% retracement of its 3 year range today (.7929) and the next level of interest probably isn’t until the 2013 Labor Day gap at .7722. One can’t help but notice that an epic double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370.”
-The NZDUSD double top has failed to this point but slope resistance comes into play more or less at the current level and near .7800.

USD/JPY
Weekly



-“Continue to favor a broad range as 119.80-120.70 as resistance and 116.40-117.10 as support. A move through either one of these zones would define target zones of 124-128 and 110-114.”
-Near term, watch for resistance now near 120.08. The next support on a break would be the median line just above 117.

USD/CAD
Weekly



-The breakdown from a 2 and a half month topping pattern could ‘kick-off’ a much larger decline but near term focus is on early congestion from 1.1931 to 1.2046. There is slope support (former resistance) at the latter level next week. Of note as well is that this volume (FXCM) this week was a record. Volume of this magnitude can indicate near term capitulation. 1.23 is an important trading pivot.

USD/CHF
Weekly



-“USDCHF has reversed from 9 year trendline resistance. Focus is on the median line (about .9300) that extends off of the 2012 high. This line crosses through highs in 2013 and the October 2014 low. The 52 week MA is near this line as well.”

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