Technical Analysis

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Moves to Challenge Monthly Range Support
• S&P 500 Pauses After Rising to Another Record High
• Gold Stalls at Support, Crude Oil Recovery Finds Fuel

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices look to be reversing downward as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracementat 11740 exposes the 23.6% level at 11653. Alternatively, a turn above the 11854-76 zone (14.6% Fib expansion, March 2009 high) clears the way for a test of the 23.6% expansion at 11963.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to digest gains after advancing to yet another record high. A daily close above the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 2134.10 exposes the 123.6% level at 2156.00. Alternatively, a reversal below the 76.4% Fib at 2112.20 targets the 61.8% expansion at 2098.60.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices has stalled above interim support at 1197.86, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A break above channel top resistance at 1205.30 exposes the 1215.63-18.00 area (trend line support-turned-resistance, 50% level). Alternatively, a turn below 1197.86 targets the intersection of channel floor support and the 76.4% Fib at 1171.96.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched a recovery as expected, with buyers now attempting to reclaim momentum after a brief pullback. A break above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 61.98 exposes the February 17 high at 62.98, followed by the 38.2% level at 64.58. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 60.38 targets resistance-turned-support at 58.17.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Falls Short of Piercing Monthly Range Top
• S&P 500 in Digestion Mode After Setting Record High
• Crude Oil Stalls Below $63, Gold Holds Up at $1200

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices issued its largest advance in a month but prices failed to overcome range resistance to secure a breakout. Near-term resistance is in the 11854-76 area (14.6% Fibonacci expansion, March 2009 high), with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11963. Alternatively, a below the 14.6% Fib retracementat 11740 opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% threshold at 11653.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to digest gains after advancing to yet another record high. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2121.80 exposes the 23.6% level at 2133.70. Near-term support is at 2102.60, the February 23 low.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices has stalled above interim support at 1197.86, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A break above the intersection of trend line support-turned-resistance and the 50% level at 1218.80 exposes the 38.2% Fib at 1239.73. Alternatively, a turn below 1197.86 targets the 76.4% retracement at 1171.96.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched a recovery as expected, with buyers now attempting to reclaim momentum after a brief pullback. A break above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 61.98 exposes the February 17 high at 62.98, followed by the 38.2% level at 64.58. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 60.38 targets resistance-turned-support at 58.17.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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• GBPUSD breakdown
• NZDUSD puts up a fight
• USDCHF at long term trendline (again)

EUR/USD
Weekly



-“BIG picture, monthly RSI has broken out of a triangle pattern. Sometimes, a pattern breakout in momentum (or OBV) precedes the breakout in price. The development’s implications are obviously significant.”
-“There is a long term level to be aware of. The line that extends off of the 2008 and 2010 lows is at about 1.0545 this week. The March 2003 low is at 1.0499.” EURUSD ends the week at 1.05. The next area of long term interest probable isn’t until about .96 (2001 high and Sep 2002 low). Above 1.08 would indicate a behavior change.

GBP/USD
Weekly



-“A breakout from a 1 month inverse head and shoulders pattern is valid above today’s low (breakout day) but GBPUSD does face channel resistance at this level. The reversal pattern’s objective is 1.5494, which is in line with the December low at 1.5485.”
-“GBPUSD met the target and traded into the mid-1.5500s this week. There is good resistance here from former lows and slopes on multiple time frames. A breakdown towards 1.4250-1.4350 may be underway.” Look towards the mentioned levels as long as price is below 1.5030.

AUD/USD
Daily



-“Today’s (2/26) reversal comes just shy of channel resistance. As long as price is contained by channel resistance, downside resolution remains possible.” Focus remains on the lower end of the channel in the low .70s but channel resistance must hold. A push above would indicate an important behavior change.

NZD/USD
Weekly



-“NZDUSD traded to the 61.8% retracement of its 3 year range today (.7929) and the next level of interest probably isn’t until the 2013 Labor Day gap at .7722. One can’t help but notice that an epic double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370.”
-If the major double top is going to prove successful, then the February high needs to remain in place.

USD/JPY
Weekly



-“Continue to favor a broad range as 119.80-120.70 as resistance and 116.40-117.10 as support. A move through either one of these zones would define target zones of 124-128 and 110-114.”
-USDJPY is flirting with a breakout from the cited resistance zone (120.70). The next area of interest on the upside would be 123.16-124.13. A daily close below 119.50 would indicate a reversal.

USD/CAD
Weekly



-“The contracting range indicates potential for a triangle from the high. Typically, a triangle will lead to a thrust in the direction of the preceding trend.” Triangle targets are 1.3074 and 1.3245. If the path is still higher, then former triangle resistance should provide support if reached (about 1.2550).

USD/CHF
Monthly



-“USDCHF has retraced nearly the entire SNB fiasco and returned to the year open price. This level is also the 2012 high. A confluence of such important prices (year and open and a former yearly high) is often decent support/resistance so a break through this would major. The median line remains estimated support near .9300.” An upper parallel is all that remains as possible resistance before the high.


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Upside Momentum May Be Starting to Fade
• S&P 500 Consolidating After Tagging Six-Week Low
• Crude Oil Probes Below $54, Gold in Digestion Mode

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be losing steam after hitting a new 11-year high as signs of negative RSI divergence begin to emerge. A daily close back below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 12107 exposes the 23.6% level at 11965. Alternatively, a push above the 50% Fib at 12221 opens the door for a challenge of the 61.8% expansion at 12335.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are digesting losses after sliding to the weakest level in a month. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2073.10 exposes the 38.2% level at 2093.50. Alternatively, a reversal below the 2033.00-40.10 area marked by the March 11 low and the 61.8% Fib retracement targets the 76.4% threshold at 2012.60.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are digesting losses after dropping to a three-month low. A break above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1163.43 on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 1177.51. Alternatively, a push below the 61.8% Fib at 1149.35 targets the 76.4% expansion at 1131.92.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices resumed pushing lower, sliding to the lowest level in a month. A break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 54.08 exposes the 61.8% level at 51.97. Alternatively, a reversal above the 38.2% Fib at 56.18 targets the 58.17-78 area marked by the 23.6% retracement and the February 6 close.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Chart Warns of Ebbing Upside Momentum
• S&P 500 Trying to Launch Rebound from Monthly Low
• Gold Digesting, Crude Oil Dips to Lowest in 6 Weeks

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be readying to correct lower as negative RSI divergence warns of fading bullish momentum. Near-term resistance is at 12221, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 12335. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 38.2% Fib at 12107clears the way for a test of the 23.6% expansion at 11965.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke upward, with buyers now targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2093.50. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 2110.00. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 2073.10 targets the 2033.00-40.10 area (March 11 low, 61.8% Fib retracement).



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are digesting losses after dropping to a three-month low. A break above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1163.43 on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 1177.51. Alternatively, a push below the 61.8% Fib at 1149.35 targets the 76.4% expansion at 1131.92.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices resumed pushing lower, sliding to the lowest level in six weeks. A daily close below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 54.08 exposes the 61.8% level at 51.97. Alternatively, a reversal above the 38.2% Fib at 56.18 targets the 58.17-78 area marked by the 23.6% retracement and the February 6 close.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Continues to Seesaw in a Choppy Range
• S&P 500 Aiming to Challenge Record High Again
• Gold Breaks Channel Top, Crude Oil Consolidating

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices reversed downward as expected, making good on bearish cues telegraphed through negative RSI divergence. Near-term support is at 11965, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 11854-78 area (March 2009 high, 14.6% level). Alternatively, a move above the 12107-49 zone (38.2% Fib, March 13 high) clears the way for a test of the 50% expansion at 12221.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices have returned to challenge record highs. A daily close above the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% Fibonacci expansion, February 25 high) exposes the 38.2% level at 2154.90. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 2084.00 targets rising trend line support at 2052.90.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices look poised for another move above the $1200/oz figure. A break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1205.58 exposes the 50% level at 1225.04. Alternatively, a turn below channel top resistance-turned-support at 1176.27 targets the 14.6% Fib at 1166.67.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to digest below three-week-old trend line resistrance. A break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 54.08 exposes the 51.97-52.55 area (March 17 low, 61.8% level). Alternatively, a push above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 56.75 targets support-turned-resistance at 58.17.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Appears Vulnerable to Deeper Losses
• S&P 500 Rally Stalls Below February Swing Top
• Gold Aims Above $1200/oz, Crude Oil Digesting

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, with a break of chart support pointing to further weakness ahead. A daily close below the 11854-78 area (March 2009 high, 14.6% Fibonacci expansion) exposes the 11679-737 region (February 26 low, 38.2% Fib retracement). Alternatively, a reversal back above the 23.6% level at 11965 clears the way for a test of the 12107-49 zone (38.2% expansion, March 13 high).



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices have returned to challenge record highs. A daily close above the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% Fibonacci expansion, February 25 high) exposes the 38.2% level at 2154.90. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 2084.00 targets rising trend line support at 2054.60.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices look poised for another move above the $1200/oz figure. A break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1205.58 exposes the 50% level at 1225.04. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib at 1181.51 targets channel top resistance-turned-support at 1173.39.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to digest below three-week-old trend line resistance. A break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 54.08 exposes the 51.97-52.55 area (March 17 low, 61.8% level). Alternatively, a push above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 56.75 targets support-turned-resistance at 58.17.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Pauses to Digest Downward Reversal
• S&P 500 Chart Warns a Double Top is Forming
• Crude Oil Stalling Below $57, Gold Aims Higher

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices reversed downward as expected, making good on bearish cues telegraphed through negative RSI divergence. Near-term support is in the 11854-78 area (March 2009 high, 14.6% Fibonacci expansion), with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 11679-737 region (February 26 low, 38.2% Fib retracement). Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% level at 11965 clears the way for a test of the 12107-49 zone (38.2% expansion, March 13 high).



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below February’s swing high, hinting a move lower is ahead. A daily close belowthe 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2084.00 exposes rising trend line support at 2057.10. Alternatively, a reversal above the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% level, February 25 high) exposes the 38.2% Fib at 2154.90.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices look poised for another move above the $1200/oz figure. A break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1205.58 exposes the 50% level at 1225.04. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib at 1181.51 targets the 1166.67-1170.09 area (channel top resistance-turned-support, 14.6% retracement).



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to stall below the $57.00/barrel figure. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 56.75 exposes support-turned-resistance at 58.17. Near-term support is at 52.55, the March 17 low.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Talking Points:

• US Dollar in Consolidation Mode Near Monthly Bottom
• S&P 500 Sinks as Expected, Threatens 5-Month Support
• Gold Inching to $1200, Crude Oil Recovery Accelerates

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, with prices digesting losses near monthly lows. A daily close below the 11854-78 area (March 2009 high, 14.6% Fibonacci expansion) exposes the 11679-737 region (February 26 low, 38.2% Fib retracement). Alternatively, a reversal back above the 23.6% level at 11965 clears the way for a test of the 12107-49 zone (38.2% expansion, March 13 high).




S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below February’s swing high. A daily close belowrising trend line support at 2057.10 exposes the March 12 low at 2040.10. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2084.00 targets the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% level, February 25 high).



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices look poised for another move above the $1200/oz figure. A break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1205.58 exposes the 50% level at 1225.04. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib at 1181.51 targets the 1166.67-1170.09 area (channel top resistance-turned-support, 14.6% retracement).



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to break higher out of the consolidation range carved out over the past 2 weeks. A daily close above support-turned-resistance at 58.17 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 59.35. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% level at 56.75 targets the March 17 lowat 52.55.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Continues to Digest at Monthly Swing Low
• S&P 500 Stalls at Chart Support After Expected Drop
• Crude Oil Trying to Expose $60, Gold Clears $1200/oz

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices reversed downward as expected, making good on bearish cues telegraphed through negative RSI divergence. Near-term support is in the 11854-78 area (March 2009 high, 14.6% Fibonacci expansion), with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 11679-737 region (February 26 low, 38.2% Fib retracement). Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% level at 11965 clears the way for a test of the 12107-49 zone (38.2% expansion, March 13 high).



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below February’s swing high. A daily close belowchannel floor support at 2058.50 exposes the March 12 low at 2040.10. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2084.00 targets the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% level, February 25 high).



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices secured a foothold above the $1200/oz figure as expected. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1205.58 exposes the 50% level at 1225.04. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib at 1181.51 targets the 14.6% retracement at 1166.67.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched sharply higher, with buyers attempting to clear a path above the $60/barrel figure. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 59.35 exposes the 50% level at 61.45. Alternatively a reversal below a horizontal pivot at 58.17 targets the 23.6% Fib at 56.75.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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