Technical Analysis

Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%; valid till 09:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3105-1.3120 on the upside, 1.2890-1.2905 on the downside.
  
• AUDUSD: 0.9660-0.9675 on the upside, 0.9530-0.9545 on the downside.
  
• USDJPY: 101.25-101.40 on the upside, 100.00-100.15 on the downside.
  
• GBPUSD: 1.5255-1.5270 on the upside, 1.5135-1.5150 on the downside.
  
• USDCAD: 1.0405-1.0420 on the upside, 1.0270-1.0285 on the downside.
  
• NZDUSD: 0.8125-0.8140 on the upside, 0.7860-0.7875 on the downside.
  
• EURJPY: 131.85-132.00 on the upside, 129.70-129.85 on the downside.
  
• EURGBP: 0.8575 -0.8590 on the upside, 0.8480-0.8495 on the downside.
  
• USDCHF: 0.9625-0.9640 on the upside, 0.9485-0.9500 on the downside.
  
• AUDJPY: 97.70-97.85 on the upside, 95.60-95.75 on the downside.
  
• EURAUD: 1.3565-1.3580 on the upside, 1.3455-1.3470 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.




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Month starts with dollar bulls running away from the greenback as the American economy is showing no signs of picking up: on contrary, ISM Manufacturing index unexpectedly contracted in May at the fastest pace in four years, falling to 49 from the prior month’s 50.7. The EUR/USD managed to reach 1.3107 regardless a Cyprus downgrade by Flitch, correcting now the overbought readings reached in the hourly chart, although maintaining the positive bias: in the 4 hours chart price managed to recover from a bullish 20 SMA, while indicators stand in positive territory, losing upward momentum after recent correction but far from signaling a retracement. Buyers are now expected to surge on dips towards 1.3000/40 area, while sellers align at the 1.3200 area.*
Support levels: 1.3040 1.3000 1.2960
Resistance levels: 1.3110 1.3155 1.3190

EUR/JPY Current price: 130.03



Yen gained momentum across the board, with the EUR/JPY reaching 129.50 before finding some buyers, still unable to firm up back above the 130.00 mark. The hourly chart shows moving averages gaining bearish slope above current price, as indicators correct oversold readings, while the *4 hours chart shows an increasing bearish momentum that supports a test of key 128.80 support for these days. Expect sellers now on approaches to the 131.00 area.
Support levels: 129.50 129.20 128.80
Resistance levels: 130.40 131.00 131.50

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5320



The GBP/USD reached 1.5374, on strong Pound demand after better than expected UK data. The hourly chart shows price and indicators correcting the extreme overbought conditions, although price remains well above a strongly bullish 20 SMA. In the 4 hours chart price has managed to break above 200 EMA, a first sign of midterm bullish continuation if price continues to hold above it around 1.5260, while indicators maintain a strong upward momentum.
Support levels: 1.5290 1.5240 1.5200
Resistance levels: 1.5380 1.5420 1.5460

USD/JPY Current price: 99.35



The USD/JPY nose dived down to 98.85 before bouncing, reaching a fresh 4-week low with dollar sell off. The break below 100.00 is no minor factor in the pair now, so expect spikes towards the level to attract sellers. The hourly chart shows a *limited upward correction coming from indicators still in negative territory, with price capped below 99.50 and moving averages accelerating south above current price. Bigger time frames show also bearish technical readings, with 97.00 area now as next big midterm support to watch.
Support levels: 99.20 98.85 98.40
Resistance levels: 99.50 100.00 100.40

AUD/USD: Current price: 0.9751



Aussie advanced up to 0.9790 against the greenback, adding near 230 pips from Friday opening and regardless an unfilled gap around 0.9570. Extremely overbought according to the hourly chart, the pair holds to its gains ahead of RBA monetary policy meeting later this Tuesday. After May rate cut, the Central Bank is expected to remain on hold, and unless a strongly dovish speech from governor Stevens, the pair will likely continue advancing. In the 4 hours chart, technical readings present a strong upward momentum, favoring the shorter term view.
Support levels: 0.9710 0.9660 0.9620
Resistance levels: 0.9800 0.9840 0.9880


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Current level - 1.3086


Yesterday's downswing to 1.2952 has completed the corrective pattern below 1.3060 and the uptrend has been renewed, peaking at the local high at 1.3105. My outlook here remains bullish, for a rise towards 1.3190, and crucial on the downside is 1.2952 low.

1.3105	1.3190	1.3200	1.3320
1.3040	1.2952	1.2837	1.2650

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Current level - 100.25



A clear reversal has been confirmed at 98.84 low and current intraday bias is positive above 99.95 support, as the pair is targeting 101.00-20 dynamic resistance. The outlook on the senior frames remains bearish below 101.20-30, for another sell-off towards 97.00.

100.40	101.25	102.53	103.70
99.95	99.30	98.50	97.00

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Current level - 1.5313



Current pullback after 1.5373 high should be considered corrective in nature, thus preceding next wave upwards, to 1.5420 resistance area. The intraday bias is negative, as the pair is heading for a tight test of 1.5240 static support, and crucial on the lower frames is 1.5340 high.

1.5340	1.5420	1.5420	1.5610
1.5284	1.5240	1.5010	1.4830

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June 3	BUY LMT	@1.2960	1.2910	1.3050	1.3160
June 4	BUY LMT	@100.10	99.60	100.60	101.00
June 4	BUY LMT	@1.5260	1.5210	1.5360	1.5410

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The market looks to have settled after Monday’s sharp moves and will now wait until Friday’s NFP before it decides on its next push. My feeling is that the underlying USD bullish bias remains intact and the market hasn’t given up yet on seeing higher levels but that might all change if the number comes in significantly different to the 150k expectations.

The main event on Asian FX markets will be the Australian GDP data and with some big levels looming in the AUD crosses, we may get some volatility.

EUR/AUD is trying to form a double-top near 1.3600 and if successful, this could set-off some heavy profit taking.



AUD/JPY is still in retracement mode and looks to be targeting a 38.2% retracement level at 95.50.



USD/JPY is pivoting around the important psychological level at 100.00 and I still favour the sell-rally play here with strong Fibo and trend-line resistance at 101.10 offering a good looking entry level.



The important levels in AUD/USD are becoming very clear and whilst the downtrend remains in force, it is losing momentum quickly.*



EUR/USD is still very choppy and totally dependent on flows in the crosses. Bids are reported near 1.3040 with heavy stops immediately below. Sell orders are also solid 1.3105/10.
Cable saw some unusually high turnover last night but has hardly moved. EUR/GBP resistance at .8590/00 is the level to watch in the cross.*

EUR/CHF is consolidating around 1.2400 with large stops now reported below 1.2360.
Good luck today.


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EUR/USD Current price: 1.3078



The EUR/USD is nearing the end of the US session pretty much unchanged from Asian opening levels, as doubts arise among investors: a better than expected US Trade Balance and more FED members jawboning on tapering QE has been the main theme this Tuesday. With the ECB next Thursday and US employment data on Friday, market players enter in wait and see mode, not sure where to go from here. As for the technical readings, the EUR/USD hourly chart maintains a positive tone, with price above a flat 20 SMA and indicators standing above their midlines, although lacking strength either side of the board. In the 4 hours chart indicators maintain the upward momentum, with dips towards 1.3040 still seen as buying opportunities. A break of the weekly high around 1.3110 should signal further gains, with 1.3200 then at sight.

Support levels: 1.3040 1.3000 1.2960
Resistance levels: 1.3110 1.3155 1.3190*

EUR/JPY Current price: 130.84



Yen managed to resume its slide across the board this Tuesday, following previous session Nikkei gains and despite local share markets maintain the red. If the Japanese index is unable to sustain its gains, risk of another leg lower increases today. As for the short term, the pair struggles around 100 SMA in the hourly chart, while indicators lost the upward potential gained early Europe, although stand in positive territory. In bigger time frames technical readings are more neutral, as range has prevailed in the pair for over 3 weeks now.*

Support levels: 130.40 129.90 129.50*
Resistance levels: 131.00 131.50 132.00

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5300



The GBP/USD has spent the day in consolidation mode, hovering below the 1.5300 level. Despite an improvement in UK data, the pair has remained well below Monday high, and the hourly chart shows a slightly bearish bias, as price is unable to overcome 20 SMA while indicators move in negative territory. In the 4 hours chart indicators corrected the extreme overbought readings and head lower still above their midlines, while 20 SMA and 200 EMA converge around 1.5255, offering strong support in case of more slides: only below this area the pair will lose the upward bias, and be exposed to a retest of 1.5100 later this week.*

Support levels: 1.5255 1.5210 1.5170
Resistance levels: 1.5310 1.5350 1.5390

USD/JPY Current price: 100.02



USD/JPY recovery stalled right below 100 SMA in the hourly chart, and despite adding over 100 pips in the day, the pair is far from signaling an upward continuation, as the hourly 100 moving average maintains a bearish slope, while indicators head lower approaching their midlines. In the 4 hours chart, price is being capped by 200 SMA, while indicators hold in negative territory: recoveries need to extend now beyond the 100.90 area to deny the possibility of further sildes.
Support levels: 99.80 99.30 99.90
Resistance levels: 100.20 100.50 100.85*

AUD/USD: Current price: 0.9631



The AUD/USD gave up all its Monday gains, as the RBA made it clear: the Central Bank, wants a weaker Aussie. The pair regained the bearish bias, and the hourly chart supports the view, as price develops below a strongly bearish 20 SMA while indicators stand in negative territory. In the *4 hours chart price is right below a flat 20 SMA and indicators hover around their midlines, giving not much clues on upcoming direction, but the downside is favored towards 0.9527 past week low.
Support levels: 0.9620 0.9570 0.9530
Resistance levels: 0.9660 *0.9690 0.9720*


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AUDUSD breaks below 0.9528 support, and continues its downward movement from 1.0582 (Apr 11 high), and the fall has extended to as low as 0.9448. Further decline could be expected, and next target would be at 0.9400 area. Key resistance is now located at 0.9791, only break above this level could signal completion of the downtrend from 1.0582.




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Gold (Momentum Review for 06/05/2013):

RSI (14): The RSI (14) is showing a neutral set up on the 1 hour chart, consolidating just above the 40 level. The set up on the daily chart is bearish.

MA’s of RSI (14): The 9MA of RSI has crossed below the 45MA of RSI (1 hour chart), which is a bearish development. *The MA’s of RSI on the daily chart are neutral.

Pattern Review for (06/05/2013):

Gold: 1 hour chart is forming a possible bull flag but will need a 1 hour close below 1395 to be confirmed. *Pattern has a measured move target of 1352

Shorter term patterns should always be taken in account with the longer term time frame in mind
Shorter Term Time Frames Pattern Table



Shorter term patterns (Charts)

Gold (1 hour chart): Pennant - (Bearish)
>1 hour close below 1395 would confirm pattern and targets 1352



Longer Term Time Frames Pattern Table



**only closing prices (daily and weekly) are used for confirmation and exit levels.
**the ‘level’ column displays trigger for pattern to be confirmed, although entry price may be different based on where the market closes that particular day.


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EUR/USD: Daily



Look at that candle! Yesterday, EUR/USD staged a magnificent rally, causing key resistance at the 1.3200 major psychological level to break convincingly. With the next major resistance level more than 400 pips away, it looks like the pair is poised to go higher. Be careful jumping in hastily though! Stochastic shows that conditions are overbought, which means the rally could be exhausted and we could see a retest of 1.3200 before the pair heads for 1.3700.


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GBP/USD (Momentum Review for 06/06/2013):*

RSI (14):

The RSI (14) is showing a strongly bullish set up on the 1 hour chart, consolidating just above the 70 level. The set up on the daily chart is also strongly bullish.

MA’s of RSI (14): The 9MA of RSI has crossed above the 45MA of RSI (1 hour chart), which is a bullish development. *The MA’s of RSI are also strongly bullish

Pattern Review for (06/06/2013):

GBP/USD: 1 hour chart is forming a possible bull flag but will need a 1 hour close below 1.5620 to be confirmed. *Pattern has a measured move target of 1.5775

Shorter term patterns should always be taken in account with the longer term time frame in mind

Shorter Term Time Frames Pattern Table



Shorter term patterns (Charts)

GBP/USD (1 hour chart): Pennant - (Bullish)
>1 hour close above 1.5620 would confirm pattern and targets 1352



Longer Term Time Frames Pattern Table



**only closing prices (daily and weekly) are used for confirmation and exit levels.
**the ‘level’ column displays trigger for pattern to be confirmed, although entry price may be different based on where the market closes that particular day.


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EURUSD
What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently sitting @ 1.3219 after a bounce on the day chart trend wall. We are in a big wedge which means we could break either way. A break up of the 1.3341 ( .382 Fibo) signals a bullish market and the target would be the 1.3637 R8 Resistance. A failure to break indicates that the down trend is still in place and we will look for the move to the day chart bottom @ 1.2752. Wait for a clear signal. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 100 pips.



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USDJPY
What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently @ 97.43. will this correction be enough for the bulls to come back? Watch for the BOJ to possibly make a move this week. Expecting a continuation up above the .500 fibo for a move back to the consolidation @ 101.36. A failure at the trend wall suggests more shorts. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 97 pips.*



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GBPUSD
What Forex Target Traders See: Cable is currently @ 1.5556 on the .214 fibo. We could correct ( ABC) to the .382 fibo @ 1.5430 before the resumption of the trend to the Day chart top @ 1.5827 . The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 101 pips.



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AUDUSD – A great smooth currency for Newbie’s
What Forex Target Traders See: Aussie currently sitting @ 0.9501. We have divergence to the upside on the 60 min and are looking for a move to the trendline. Decision time here. Breakout to the 0.9675 ( top) or respect and sell to the 5th Wave S4 @ 0.9340. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 79 pips.




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