Technical Analysis

USD/JPY: 4-hour

If you're more into retracements, then perhaps USD/JPY is a better pair for you to trade. The pair, after testing the 103.50 region, has fallen back to 101.00. It's currently testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and from the looks of it, the bulls are starting to buy the pair again. Stochastic is even showing that the pair is oversold. If the bulls continue jumping in, we could see the pair skyrocket to 104.00 and possibly beyond!

More...

USD/JPY catching a nice bid here in early Asian trading. It now looks like Wave 4 is complete (forecast on 5/23).

Clients looking to get long should use 100.65 as a suggested stop-loss with 103.72+ a level that should accelerate the buying.



More...

EUR/GBP: 4-hour

Here's a potential range play on EUR/GBP. The pair has just climbed to the top of the range around .8600, but it appears undecided whether it wants to break out or not. Stochastic is pointing upwards while EUR/GBP seems to have formed a bullish flag, suggesting a potential upside breakout. However, if .8600 still holds as resistance, this pair might be forced to head back to the bottom of the range at .8400.

More...

GBP/JPY (Momentum Review for 05/28/2013):*

RSI (14): * The RSI (14) is showing slightly bullish set up on the 1 hour chart, but will need to break above the 60 level in order for price to take the next leg up. * The set up on the daily chart is neutral

MA’s of RSI (14): The 9MA of RSI has crossed below the 45MA of RSI (1 hour chart), which is a bearish development. *The MA’s of RSI on the daily chart are neutral. *

FX Pattern Review for (05/28/2013):

GBP/JPY: 1 hour chart is forming a possible Inverse H&S bottom but will need a close above 1.5450 to be confirmed. *Pattern has a measured move target of 1.5650

**Shorter term patterns should always be taken in account with the longer term time frame in mind

Shorter Term Time Frames Pattern Table



Shorter term patterns (Charts)

GBP/JPY (1 hour chart): Inverse H&S - (Bullish)
>1 hour close below 1.5450 would confirm pattern and targets 1.5650



Longer Term Time Frames Pattern Table


**only closing prices (daily and weekly) are used for confirmation and exit levels.
**the ‘level’ column displays trigger for pattern to be confirmed, although entry price may be different based on where the market closes that particular day.

More...

BETA - Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%; valid till 15:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3025-1.3040 on the upside, 1.2795-1.2810 on the downside.
  
• AUDUSD: 0.9740-0.9755 on the upside, 0.9505-0.9520 on the downside.
  
• USDJPY: 103.35-103.350 on the upside, 99.75-99.90 on the downside.
  
• GBPUSD: 1.5250-1.5265 on the upside, 1.4995-1.5010 on the downside.
  
• USDCAD: 1.0440-1.0455 on the upside, 1.0275-1.0290 on the downside.
  
• NZDUSD: 0.8160-0.8175 on the upside, 0.7990- 0.8005 on the downside.
  
• EURJPY: 132.40-132.55 on the upside, 130.00-130.15 on the downside.
  
• EURGBP: 0.8585-0.8600 on the upside, 0.8485-0.8500 on the downside.
  
• USDCHF: 0.9800-0.9815 on the upside, 0.9535-0.9550 on the downside.
  
• AUDJPY: 98.15-98.30 on the upside, 96.65-96.80 on the downside.
  
• EURAUD: 1.3525-1.3540 on the upside, 1.3365-1.3380 on the downside.
  

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.



More...

Disappointing US data sent EUR/USD to fresh highs above 1.3040, as a downward revision of GDP along with increasing unemployment claims diminished chances of tapering QE in the US. The pair finally overcame selling interest around 1.3000 and triggered stops, rising near 1.3050 at the time being, and maintaining a strong upward momentum according to the hourly chart, with price accelerating above a bullish 20 SMA and indicators bouncing higher from their midlines. 1.3000 will now attract buyers, while immediate resistance stands around 1.3060: once above, the pair has scope to extend up to 1.3100.

Support levels: 1.3000 1.2960 1.2920
Resistance levels: 1.3060 1.3100 1.3140

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5179



The GBP/USD advance remains limited by daily high set early Europe around *1.5197, but the GBP/USD maintains the positive tone after US opening, with price steady above 20 SMA and indicators bouncing higher after testing their midlines. In the 4 hours chart technical readings stand in positive territory, although showing no upward momentum. A break above daily high should favor a test of the 1.5220/30 area, 50% Fibonacci retracement, while the downside will likely remain limited now by buying orders around 1.5130.

Support levels: 1.5130 1.5085 1.5045
Resistance levels: 1.5195 1.5220 1.5260

USD/JPY Current price: 101.20



The USD/JPY goes back and forward with headlines today, having set a fresh weekly low of 100.46 early Europe. The pair maintains the negative tone after US data, with price back below 100 SMA and indicators heading south and nearing their midlines. However, buyers are still appearing in the 101.00 level, and further slides seem limited with US stocks running up. While the downside is favored, a break below daily low is now required to confirm a downward continuation towards 99.70 main bearish target.

Support levels: 101.00 100.65 100.20
Resistance levels 101.25 101.60 101.95

More...

Recommendations:

• Risky: Sell the EURUSD at 1.3075, SL 1.3125, targets 1.3015, 1.2900, 1.2790, 1.23(!).
  
• Very risky: buy the AUDUSD at 0.9485, SL 0.9445, targets 0.9550, 0.9600, 0.97.
  

Analysis:

After reaching very high levels around 169x, the SP500 started correcting back towards 1600-1650. The market is psychologically ready for a healthy 5%-10% correction that should lead us to below the area in between 1550-1600 where we would book some profits. In the meantime, the Australian dollar rebounded on the 0.96 level that we suggested, before getting down again.
We would consider another risky long entry in case the Australian dollar falls during the first days of the coming week below 0.95. Regarding the yen, it is now very difficult to find entry points.

We continue to be bearish on EURUSD. The major head and shoulder pattern has not yet been triggered and we still might revisit the area of 1.30-1.31 next week. We would consider a short entry close to the trend line resistance from the last tops at 1.37x and 1.32x, which would be in between 1.3050 and 1.31. A possible area of entry could be the 150-DMA at 1.3075 as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace from the last top at 1.32x to the last bottom at 1.279x. A bearish golden cross is also now in place.



SP500 Weekly chart



EURUSD Daily chart 1



EURUSD Daily Chart 2


More...

EUR/USD Current price: 1.2984



Not a good day for EUR, after ECB’s Visco said ECB is ready to intervene again, cutting rates as soon as next week *while record unemployment in the EU also weighed on the common currency, sending EUR/USD to a daily low of 1.2967. With local share markets in red and US futures pointing for a negative opening, the pair struggles to regain key 1.3000 level. The hourly chart shows indicators in negative territory, and 20 SMA gaining bearish tone above current price, suggesting more slides ahead, while in the 4 hours chart technical readings bend lower losing yesterday’s upward momentum. The 1.2960 area stands as immediate support, and bulls will start to ease if the level is taken.

Support levels: 1.2960 1.2920 1.2880
Resistance levels: 1.3020 1.3060 1.3100

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5218



The GBP/USD reached 1.5239 before stalling, attached now to the 50% retracement of its latest bullish run around 1.5220. The hourly chart shows price quickly bouncing on pullbacks despite technical readings are bearish, suggesting buying interest is still high in the pair regardless. In the 4 hours chart indicators maintain the positive tone near overbought territory, with scope now for a test of 1.5260, 200 EMA in the mentioned time frame.

Support levels: 1.5205 1.5165 1.5130
Resistance levels: 1.5220 1.5260 1.5305

USD/JPY Current price: 100.53



Yen continued grinding higher against most rivals, reaching 100.21 against the greenback, during current European session. The USD/JPY hourly chart maintains the bearish tone as momentum retraces from its midlines while moving averages gain bearish slope well above current price. In the 4 hours chart technical readings are also bearish, but the downside could now remain limited if US indexes manage to bounce. Key support and bearish target is the 99.70 area, former highs from early this year.

Support levels: 100.25 100.00 99.70
Resistance levels 100.65 101.00 101.25

AUD/USD: Current price: 0.9590



Unable to hold its gains, the AUD/USD is back below the 0.9600 level, presenting a strong bearish tone in its hourly chart, and having been as low as 0.9565 today. With no room for recoveries, according to technical readings also in the 4 hours chart, price is headed back towards 0.9520 weekly low, while selling interest will surge on approaches to the 0.9660 area.

Support levels: *0.9565 0.9520 0.9470
Resistance levels: 0.9610 0.9660 0.9700

More...

EURUSD

What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently sitting @ 1.2996 in a wedge from the day chart. We are waiting. A couple of different scenarios. 1: bullish: a move above the upper day chart trend line @ 1.3060 area) and break out we will look to the R5 @ 1.3172-84. 2: Bearish : A break down here or at the 1.2996 area would set up a nice move to the day chart bottom @ 1.2748 and maybe extend to the1.2657. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 100 pips.*



——————————————————————————–

USDJPY

What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently @ 100.47 in a descending wedge which is bearish. Should see a break to the 100.00 area ( 0.786 Fibo, wave one S5) and a break here we will look to the R6 @ 89.78 for the square up. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 92 pips.



——————————————————————————–

GBPUSD

What Forex Target Traders See: Cable is currently @ 1.5193. Look to the short side even with a higher correction to the resistance (+.500 Fibo) @ 1.5320 and then back to the bottom. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 99 pips.



——————————————————————————–

AUDUSD – A great smooth currency for Newbie’s!

What Forex Target Traders See: Aussie is currently @ 0.970 in a bearish wedge. Expecting a break to the downside to the 1.270 fibo @ 0.9457 and then another thrust down to the S7 target @ 0.9398 area. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 76 pips.




More...

EURUSD failed to break below 1.2747 support, and rebounded from 1.2796, suggesting that lengthier sideways movement in a range between 1.2747 and 1.3242 is underway.Further rise to test 1.3242 resistance would likely be seen next week, as long as this level holds, the price action in the trading range could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.3711, one more fall to 1.2250 area is still possible. On the upside, a break above 1.3242 resistance will confirm that the downward movement from 1.3711 had completed at 1.2747 already, then next target would be at 1.3500 zone.For long term analysis, EURUSD is in uptrend from 1.2042 (Jul 24, 2012 low), another rise towards 1.4500 could be expected after consolidation.




More...