Technical Analysis

USDCHF's upward movement from 0.9021 extends to as high as 0.9760. Further rise to test 0.9971 resistance is possible next week. As long as 0.9971 resistance holds, the rise from 0.9021 could be treated as correction of the downtrend from 0.9971, another fall towards 0.8500 is still possible after correction.On the upside, a break above 0.9971 will indicate that the long term uptrend 0.7067 (Aug 9, 2011 low) has resumed, then further rise towards 1.1000 could be seen.For long term analysis, USDCHF is in downtrend from 0.9971 (Jul 24, 2012 high). Further decline to 0.8500 area could be expected over the next several weeks.




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Majors

EUR/USD: SHORT AT 1.2915 FOR 1.2772; REVISED STOP AT 1.2915
USD/JPY: LONG AT 101.60 FOR REVISED 104.10, STOP 101.80
GBP/USD: SHORT AT 1.5330 FOR A 1.5128 OBJECTIVE; REVISE STOP AT 1.5290
USD/CHF: LONG AT .9701 FOR .9809 OBJECTIVE, STOP .9634
AUD/USD: SELL AT .9795 FOR .9581, STOP AT .9862
USD/CAD: POSS RE-BUY
Crosses

EUR/JPY: LONG AT 128.50 FOR 134.37 OBJECTIVE, STOP 130.79
EUR/GBP: SELL AT .8470 FOR A .8398 OBJECTIVE; STOP AT .8520
EUR/CHF: LONG AT 1.2420 FOR A 1.2573 OBJECTIVE; STOP AT 1.2345
EUR/CAD: POSSIBLY BUY
GBP/JPY: LONG AT 153.10 FOR 160.40, STOP AT 154.70
NZD/USD: SELL AT .8135 FOR A .8032 OBJECTIVE, STOP AT .8185



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Several words about the EUR/USD future.
Resistance (daily close) : 1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778. After that 1.3958, 1.4186 and 1.4400. Break of the latter will give 1.4490, 1.4692

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GBP/USD - British Pound / US Dollar
Entry: 1.526
Stop: 1.5285
Resistances: 1.538 - 1.532 - 1.5275
Supports: 1.515 - 1.5185 - 1.522



EUR/USD - Euro / US Dollar
Resistances: 1.2995 - 1.294 - 1.2905
Supports: 1.2795 - 1.2845 - 1.2865



EUR/GBP - Euro / British Pound
Resistances: 0.849 - 0.847 - 0.8455
Supports: 0.842 - 0.843 - 0.844



USD/CHF - US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Resistances: 0.976 - 0.9735 - 0.9705
Supports: 0.959 - 0.9645 - 0.967



AUD/USD - Australian dollar / US Dollar
Resistances: 1.0005 - 0.991 - 0.9835
Supports: 0.971 - 0.975 - 0.979



USD/CAD - US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Resistances: 1.0315 - 1.0295 - 1.027
Supports: 1.018 - 1.0215 - 1.0235



EUR/CHF - Euro / Swiss Franc
Resistances: 1.2535 - 1.2525 - 1.2495
Supports: 1.239 - 1.2435 - 1.2465



EUR/AUD - Euro / Australian dollar
Resistances: 1.322 - 1.3175 - 1.3145
Supports: 1.3045 - 1.308 - 1.311



EUR/CAD - Euro / Canadian Dollar
Resistances: 1.3295 - 1.3245 - 1.323
Supports: 1.3155 - 1.318 - 1.3205



USD/JPY - US Dollar / Yen
Resistances: 103.3 - 103.15 - 102.75
Supports: 101.8 - 102.1 - 102.4



EUR/JPY - Euro / Yen
Resistances: 132.8 - 132.55 - 132.3
Supports: 131.2 - 131.6 - 132.05



GBP/JPY - British Pound / Yen
Resistances: 157.1 - 156.8 - 156.55
Supports: 155.4 - 155.7 - 156.2





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Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%; valid till 09:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.2920-1.2935 on the upside, 1.2805-1.2820 on the downside.
  
• AUDUSD: 0.9845-0.9860 on the upside, 0.9725-0.9740 on the downside.
  
• USDJPY: 102.90-103.05 on the upside, 101.70-101.85 on the downside.
  
• GBPUSD: 1.5305-1.5320 on the upside, 1.5130-1.5145 on the downside.
  
• USDCAD: 1.0300-1.0315 on the upside, 1.0210-1.0225 on the downside.
  
• NZDUSD: 0.8210-0.8225 on the upside, 0.8080-0.8095 on the downside.
  
• EURJPY: 132.50-132.65 on the upside, 131.20-131.35 on the downside.
  
• EURGBP: 0.8480 -0.8495 on the upside, 0.8350-0.8365 on the downside.
  
• USDCHF: 0.9715-0.9730 on the upside, 0.9585-0.9600 on the downside.
  
• AUDJPY: 100.90-101.05 on the upside, 99.50-99.65 on the downside.
  

• EURAUD: 1.3195-1.3210 on the upside, 1.3070-1.3085 on the downside.

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EUR/USD Current price: 1.2945



Market still playing QE game: better than expected Durable Orders in the US, giving signs the economy continues to improve, triggered dollar gains across the board, as US stocks turn red. The EUR/USD again approached to the elusive 1.30, before falling back yet holding above *its hourly 20 SMA and with indicators heading north nearing their midlines. In the 4 hours chart however, price stands above 20 SMA while indicators hover in neutral territory. Bulls will likely continue to dominate in the short term, as long as 1.2880/90 area holds the downside*
Support levels: 1.2920 1.2885 1.2840
Resistance levels: 1.2950 1.3000 1.3040

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5095



GBP/USD found again sellers in the 1.5130 area although maintains a positive tone, consolidating right below the level and with the hourly chart showing a slightly positive tone as indicators head north above their midlines, and price stands above 20 SMA. In the 4 hours chart technical readings are also heading higher in positive territory, yet unless a clear break of the Fibonacci resistance, there’s not much room for rises.
Support levels: 1.5070 1.5020 1.4990
Resistance levels: 1.5130 1.5175 1.5210

USD/JPY Current price: 101.12



Yen strengthens across the board as stocks remain under pressure, with the USD/JPY below 101.20, key Fibonacci resistance as it stands for the 38.2% retracement of this month rise. The hourly chart shows indicators gaining bearish momentum as 100 and 200 SMAs converge around 102.40. In bigger time frames, technical reading also point for a downside acceleration, while price so far has held above 100.80 immediate support. Once below, next support will be around the 99.60/70 area, where the 61.8% retracement of the same rally stands along with former highs.
Support levels: 100.80 100.30 99.70
Resistance levels 101.20 101.60 102.10

AUD/USD: Current price: 0.9677



Australian dollar remains unable to recover ground, trading against the greenback below the 0.9700 level, and with the hourly chart showing 20 SMA capping the upside, and indicators below their midlines. In the 4 hours chart price remains contained by a bearish 20 SMA that heads lower above current price. The bearish dominant trend is quite strong still to attract sellers on spikes, while a break below 0.9650/60 area will likely accelerate the negative bias of the pair.
Support levels: 0.9660 0.9620 0.9580
Resistance levels: 0.9710 0.9740 0.9770


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GBPUSD's downward movement from 1.5605 extends to as low as 1.5014. Further decline is still possible next week, and next target would be at 1.4900 area. Resistance is at 1.5250, only break above this level could signal completion of the downtrend.On the upside, as long as 1.4831 key support holds, the fall from 1.5605 would possibly be correction of the uptrend from 1.4831, another rise towards 1.6000 could be expected after correction.For long term analysis, GBPUSD is in uptrend from 1.4831. Further rise towards 1.6000 could be expected over the next several weeks.


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EURUSD

What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently sitting @ 1.2935 after a strong bounce off the day chart trend line. We are tentatively bullish but waiting. A couple of different scenarios. 1: bullish: a move to the upper day chart trend line @ 1.2996 area) and break out we will look to the R5 @ 1.3172. 2: Bearish : A break down here or at the 1.2996 area would set up a nice wave to the day chart bottom @ 1.2748. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 106 pips.

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USDJPY

What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently @ 101.10 and finishing a nice correction. Should see a bounce at the 100.50 area ( .618 Fibo, Trend line and support) and if so we will look to the R7 @ 105.71 in the 5th wave. A breakdown here and will look to the 98.78 area. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 124 pips.



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GBPUSD

What Forex Target Traders See: Cable is currently @ 1.5127 in a nice downside channel but stuck in a wedge. Look to the short side even with a higher correction to the S6 @ 1.5005 and then 1.4947 to finish the down move. . The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 124 pips.



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AUDUSD – A great smooth currency for Newbie’s!

What Forex Target Traders See: Aussie is currently @ 0.9653 after bouncing on the day chart bottom @ 0.9583. Expecting a pullback to the upside to complete wave 4 @ 0.9927 ( 1.270 fibo) and then another thrust down to the S7 target @ 0.9398 area. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 118 pips.



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The aussie dollar has been suffering heavily on the back of broad USD strength and specific aussie weakness. This combined with JPY strength last week to create the perfect cocktail for AUDJPY weakness. The pair punched through triangle resistance, which also happened to correspond with a break of a psychological support zone around 100 (see chart).

Price action has also dipped below the pair’s 100day SMA, but we are still waiting for a confirmed break of this level. Some technicals are suggesting that more downside price action may be on the cards for AUDJPY, but a confirmed break of the pair’s 100day SMA and a critical support zone around 96.95/97.20 may be needed before getting too bearish.

China’s April industrial profits data due out later today (1130AEST) will be closely watched by AUD investors for an insight into the health of the heart of Australia’s largest trading partner (prior 12.1% YTD). Also, the BoJ’s meeting minutes (0945AEST) may provide the market with an insight into the mind of the bank and, in turn, may impact JPY. If the bank is leaning towards more easing sooner than expected, then we expect to see JPY weakness.

Resistance before 100.00

• 98.20 – 100day SMA
• 98.85 – low on 15/4
• 99.25
• 99.95

Support

• 96.95/97.25 – April low and 25% retracement level from April high
• 95.20 – prior resistance and support
• 93.50 – 38.2 retracement level from April high

Source: FOREX.com


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USD/CAD (Momentum Review for 05/26/2013)

RSI (14)

The RSI (14) is showing slightly bullish set up on the 1 hour chart, maintaining the support level at 40 and consolidating around 46. * The set up on the daily chart is also bullish, with RSI (14) sitting just above the 60 level.

MA’s of RSI (14) The 9MA of RSI has crossed below the 45MA of RSI (1 hour chart), but is showing a lack of follow through to the downside. *The MA’s of RSI on the daily chart remain bullish.

FX Pattern Review for (05/26/2013)

USD/CAD: 1 hour chart is forming a possible head & shoulders top but will need a close below the neckline of 1.0305to be confirmed

Shorter term patterns should always be taken in account with the longer term time frame in mind

Shorter Term Time Frames Pattern Table



Shorter term patterns (Charts)

USD/CAD (1 hour chart):

H&S Top - (Bearish)
>1 hour close below 1.0305 would confirm pattern and targets 1.0185



Longer Term Time Frames Pattern Table


**only closing prices (daily and weekly) are used for confirmation and exit levels.
**the ‘level’ column displays trigger for pattern to be confirmed, although entry price may be different based on where the market closes that particular day.

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