Technical Analysis

Talking Points

• USD/JPY gives back Tuesday’s gains
• S&P 500 waiting on a catalyst
• Neutral Kiwi sentiment a potential negative

USD/JPY

• USD/JPY has fallen sharply after yesterday’s test of the 50% retracement of the December range
• Our near-term trend bias is positive while above 117.40
• Interim resistance is seen at 118.70 ahead of a critical area at 119.70
• A minor turn window is eyed around the end of the week
• A close under 117.40 would turn us negative again on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Square

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/JPY	116.90	117.40	117.60	118.00	118.70

S&P 500

• S&P 500 continues to hover above the key support zone at 1989-2000
• Our near-term trend bias is positive while above this 1989
• A connfluence of Fibonacci and Gann levels near 2046 needs to be overcome to reinstill upside momentum in the index
• A turn window is eyed around the start of next week
• A close below 1989 would turn us negative on the S&P 500

S&P 500 Strategy: Square

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
S&P 500	1989	2000	2020	2035	2046

NZD/USD



The NZD/USD daily chart is beginning to look interesting again. Over the past few months while other developed market currencies have been in a virtual free fall against the Greenback, NZD/USD has held its own and traded in a fairly well defined range. With the exchange rate testing the bottom end of the range today we can’t help but wonder if the Bird is about to fall in line with the rest of the currency world? We say this mostly because of the sentiment picture. This outperformance by the Kiwi over the past few months has seen sentiment towards NZD rise well above 50% bulls on the DSI when most other currencies are sporting bullish sentiment levels closer to 10%. In our view this neutral sentiment profile makes the Kiwi much more vulnerable to a decent move lower if the range lows break as there will be plenty of “fuel” for the decline. The .7607 December low looks key with weakness below needed to trigger this negative scenario.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Moves to Challenge Critical 6-Year Resistance Point
• S&P 500 Continues Choppy Consolidation Under 2100 Figure
• Crude Oil Locked in Range Above $47, Gold Stuck Below $1300

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing pivotal resistance marked by a peak dating back to March 2009. This barrier is reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 11888, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 11983. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib at 11722 clears the way for a test of resistance-turned-support at 11715.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2040.60 exposes the 38.2% level at 2023.60. Alternatively, a turn back above the 14.6% Fib at 2051.10 aims for the January 23 high at 2068.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to tread water near the $1300/oz figure. A daily close above the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1300.39 exposes the 138.2% level at 1316.16. Alternatively, a turn back below the 100% Fib at 1274.89 targets the 1249.39-55.20 area marked by the 76.4% expansion and the October 21 high.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling having attempted to recover as expected. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 50.49 exposes the 23.6% level at 53.77. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib expansion at 47.07 targets the 23.6% threshold at 43.79.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Chart Setup Hints at Turn Downward Ahead
• S&P 500 Still Treading Water Near Monthly Range Top
• Gold Prices Continue Pullback, Crude Oil Flat-Lining

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick pattern below multi-year resistance, hinting a pullback may be ahead. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 11772 exposes the resistance-turned-support at 11715, the January 8 high. Alternatively, a push above the 11854-88 area marked by the March 2009 high and the 38.2% level opens the door for a challenge of the 50% Fib at 11983.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 2047.50 exposes the 50% level at 2033.80. Alternatively, a turn back above the 76.4% Fib at 2064.30 aims for the December 29 high at 2092.60.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices fell for a second consecutive day, with sellers now testing support at 1274.30 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 1253.77-55.20 area marked by the October 21 high and the 38.2% level. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib at 1286.96 targets the January 22 peak at 1307.49.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling having attempted to recover as expected. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 50.49 exposes the 23.6% level at 53.77. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib expansion at 47.07 targets the 23.6% threshold at 43.79.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar May Be Preparing to Correct Downward
• S&P 500 Still Waiting for Clear-Cut Directional Cues
• Crude Oil Treading Water, Gold Digesting Sub-$1300

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be preparing to decline after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 11725, the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11640. Alternatively, a move above the 11854-88 area marked by the March 2009 high and the 38.2% level clears the way for a test of the 50% Fib at 11983.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2040.60 exposes the 38.2% level at 2023.60. Alternatively, a turn back above the 14.6% Fib at 2051.10 aims for the December 23 high at 2068.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to consolidate after finding resistance above the $1300/oz figure. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1274.30 exposes the 38.2% level at 1253.77. Alternatively, a push above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 1292.73 targets the 23.6% threshold at 1305.39.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling having attempted to recover as expected. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 50.49 exposes the 23.6% level at 53.77. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib expansion at 47.07 targets the 23.6% threshold at 43.79.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar May Be Topping After Hitting 6-Year High
• S&P 500 Drops Most in Nearly 4 Months to Test 2000
• Crude Oil, Gold Remain Locked in Familiar Ranges

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be readying to turn lower after producing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line at 11725 exposes the 23.6% level at 11640. Alternatively, a reversal above the 11854-88 area marked by the March 2009 high and the 38.2% level opens the door for a challenge of the 50% Fib at 11983.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below 1996.10, the intersection of the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion and a rising trend line, exposes the 76.4% level at 1979.10. Alternatively, a turn back above the 50% Fib at 2009.80 aims for the 38.2% expansion at 2023.60.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate after finding resistance above the $1300/oz figure. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1274.30 exposes the 1253.77-55.20 area marked by the October 21 high and the 38.2% level. Alternatively, a push above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 1292.73 targets the 23.6% threshold at 1305.39.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling having attempted to recover as expected. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 50.49 exposes the 23.6% level at 53.77. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib expansion at 47.07 targets the 23.6% threshold at 43.79.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points

• EUR/USD stalls at key Gann level
• Gold holding above important near-term support
• NZD/USD trades at lowest level in almost 4-years

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

• EUR/USD recovery stalled near the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low near 1.1415 on Tuesday
• Our near-term trend bias remains positive on the euro while above 1.1210
• A push above the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.1415 is needed to set off a new leg higher
• A minor turn window is seen on Friday
• A close under 1.1210 would turn us negative on the euro again

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.1210.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
EUR/USD	1.1210	1.1260	1.1300	1.1415	1.1520

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

• GOLD remains in consolidation mode below 1306
• Our near-term trend bias is positve while above 1270
• A close over 1306 is needed to reinstill upside momentum in the metal
• A very minor cycle turn window is seen here
• A close below 1270 would turn us negative on XAU/USD

GOLD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1270.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
GOLD	1260	1270	1276	1286	1306

Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD



The range break we were looking for in NZD/USD has played out rather nicely with exchange rate losing almost 4 big figures over the past week. A big part of our reasoning for turning negative on NZD was the sentiment picture as the Daily Sentiment Index early last week was perfectly neutral at 50% bulls. Such neutral sentiment is pretty typical when markets settle into clear defined ranges as the “range trading” mentality takes over. However, neutral or positive sentiment at range lows also shows that a large segment of the market is not positioned or expecting a break of the range and this is often times precisely the “fuel” that triggers a range expansion. This certainly looks to have been the case with the Kiwi. A general rule of thumb with range breaks is that they should initially extend about the height of the range. That would be about .7180.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar: Evidence of Oncoming Downturn Building
• S&P 500 Manages to Hold Support Near 2000 Figure
• Crude Oil Range Holds, Gold Snaps Monthly Uptrend

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be preparing to decline after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Near-term support is at 11734, the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11648. Alternatively, a move above the 11854-88 area marked by the March 2009 high and the 38.2% level clears the way for a test of the 50% Fib at 11983.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 1998.00-30 area marked by a rising trend line and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement exposes the 50% level at 1955.80. Alternatively, a turn back above the 23.6% Fib at 2028.00 aims for the January 23 high at 2068.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned sharply lower, overturning the monthly uptrend. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1253.77 exposes the 50% level at 1237.18. Alternatively, a push above the 23.6% Fib at 1274.30 targets trend line support-turned-resistance at 1299.63.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling having attempted to recover as expected. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 50.49 exposes the 23.6% level at 53.77. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib expansion at 47.07 targets the 23.6% threshold at 43.79.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Positioning Warns of Downside Reversal Risk
• S&P 500 Threatens Range Support Below 2000 Figure
• Crude Oil Trying to Make Good on Bullish Chart Setup

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be readying to turn lower after producing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line at 11734 exposes the 23.6% level at 11648. Alternatively, a reversal above the 11854-88 area marked by the March 2009 high and the 38.2% level opens the door for a challenge of the 50% Fib at 11983.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1988.00 exposes the 50% level at 1955.80. Alternatively, a rebound above trend line support-turned-resistance at 1999.10 targets the 23.6% Fib at 2028.00.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled from resistance-turned-support at October’s swing highs, producing the largest daily advance in 3 weeks. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1285.20 exposes the 38.2% level at 1305.73. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1253.77 targets the 50% threshold at 1237.18.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed higher following a prolonged period of consolidation after bottoming as expected above the $45.00/barrel figure. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 53.77 exposes the 38.2% level at 59.08. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 50.49 targets the 14.6% Fib expansion at 47.07.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Chart Setup Continues to Warn of Downturn
• S&P 500 Bounces at Support, Returns to Familiar Range
• Gold in Digestion Mode, Crude Oil Aims Above $59.00

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be preparing to decline after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Near-term support is at 11734, the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11648. Alternatively, a move above the 11854-88 area marked by the March 2009 high and the 38.2% level clears the way for a test of the 50% Fib at 11983.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 1980.20-88.00 area marked by a rising trend line and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement exposes the 50% level at 1955.80. Alternatively, a push above the 23.6% Fib at 2028.00 targets the January 23 high at 2068.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled from resistance-turned-support at October’s swing highs, producing the largest daily advance in 3 weeks. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1285.20 exposes the 38.2% level at 1305.73. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1253.77 targets the 50% threshold at 1237.18.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed higher following a prolonged period of consolidation after bottoming as expected above the $45.00/barrel figure. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 59.08 exposes the 50% level at 63.38. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 53.77 targets the 14.6% retracement at 50.49.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Threatens Critical Rising Trend Line Support
• S&P 500 Coiling Up for a Breakout Below 2100 Figure
• Gold Awaits Direction Cues, Crude Oil at 5-Week High

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be readying to turn lower after producing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. A daily close below the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line at 11734 exposes the 23.6% level at 11648. Alternatively, a reversal above the 11854-88 area marked by the March 2009 high and the 38.2% level opens the door for a challenge of the 50% Fib at 11983.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2028.00 exposes the 1980.60-88.00 area marked by the 38.2% level and a Triangle pattern floor. Alternatively, a push above Triangle top resistance at 2058.30 targets the January 23 high at 2068.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating above resistance-turned-support at October’s swing highs. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1285.20 exposes the 38.2% level at 1305.73. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1253.77 targets the 50% threshold at 1237.18.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed higher following a prolonged period of consolidation after bottoming as expected above the $45.00/barrel figure. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 59.08 exposes the 50% level at 63.38. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 53.77 targets the 14.6% retracement at 50.49.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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