Technical Analysis

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Continues to Consolidate in Narrow Trading Range
• SPX 500 Sets New Yearly High But Reversal Threat Remains
• Crude Oil Hits New 5-Year Low, Gold Rejected Below $1200

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices aredigesting gains near a five-year high but negative RSI divergence casts doubt on immediate follow-through. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 11577 exposes the 50% level at 11648. Alternatively, a reversal below the 11489-522 area marked by the December 8 top and the 23.6% Fib opens the door for a challenge of the 14.6% expansion at 11434.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices edged above the December 5 high at 2079.60, exposing the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 2098.60. A daily close above this barrier exposes the 61.8% level at 2129.40. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum and hints a turn lower may be looming. A turn back below 2079.60 sees initially support at 2067.90, the 38.2% Fib.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled upward to test resistance at 1196.08, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 1211.85. Near-term support is at 1170.59, the December 22 low.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices narrowly broke support at 58.20, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with sellers now aiming to challenge the 38.2% level at 54.83. A further push beneath that targets the 50% Fib at 52.10. Alternatively, a reversal back above 58.50 aims for the December 18 high at 63.65.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar May Break Downward From Consolidation Range
• SPX 500 Technical Positioning Warns a Downturn is Ahead
• Crude Oil at Risk of Deeper Losses, Gold Prices Aim Higher

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices have flat-lined after hitting a five-year high, with negative RSI divergence warning a downturn may be ahead. Near-term resistance is at 11577, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 11648. Alternatively, a turn below the 11489-522 area marked by the December 8 top and the 23.6% Fib clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 11434.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices have produced a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower is ahead. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. A daily close below the 2067.90-79.60 area marked by the December 5 high and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion exposes the 23.6% level at 2029.80. Alternatively, a push above the 50% Fibat 2098.60 targets the 61.8% expansion at 2129.40.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed higher anew after a brief respite, clearing resistance marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1196.08. Buyers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 1211.85, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% Fib at 1224.59. Alternatively, a reversal back below 1196.08 targets the December 22 lowat 1170.59.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are aiming to extend losses after breaking support at 58.20, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 54.83, with a further push beneath that targeting the 50% Fib at 52.10. Alternatively, a reversal back above 58.20 aims for the December 18 high at 63.65.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Opens 2015 With Largest Advance in Three Weeks
• SPX 500 Beginning to Make Good on Bearish Technical Setup
• Crude Oil Vulnerable to Deeper Losses, Gold Treading Water

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to continue building higher having started 2015 off with the largest daily rally in three weeks. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansionat 11648 exposes the 61.8% level at 11719. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 11577 opens the door for a challenge of the 11489-522 area marked by the December 8 top and the 23.6% expansion.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Sellers now aim to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2028.00, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 1988.00. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 14.6% Fib at 2052.60 aims for the December 5 high at 2079.60.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate above the December 22 low at 1170.59. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1156.00. Alternatively, a reversal above rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 1206.23 targets the December 9 high at 1238.13.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are aiming to extend losses after breaking support at 58.20, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 54.83, with a further push beneath that targeting the 50% Fib at 52.10. Alternatively, a reversal back above 58.20 aims for the December 18 high at 63.65.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Technical Positioning Warning a Pullback is Ahead
• SPX 500 Exposed to Deeper Losses, Aiming Below 2000 Mark
• Gold Locked in Familiar Territory, Oil Drops Most in 6 Weeks

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be readying to turn lower after prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick. Near-term support is at 11577, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposingthe 11489-522 area marked by the December 8 top and the 23.6% level. Alternatively, a turn above the 50% Fib at 11577 clears the way for a test of the 61.8% expansion at 11719.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after producing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1988.00, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the December 16 low at 1968.30 and the 50% level at 1955.80. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 23.6% Fib at 2028.00 aims for the 14.6% retracement at 2052.60.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate above the December 22 low at 1170.59. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1156.00. Alternatively, a reversal above rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 1208.32 targets the December 9 high at 1238.13.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices issued their largest daily decline in six weeks, with sellers now aiming to challenge the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 52.10. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 61.8% level at 49.37. Alternatively, a turn above the 38.2% Fib at 54.83 targets the 23.6% expansion at 58.20.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Chart Setup Hints Prices May Reverse Downward
• SPX 500 Extends Sharp Rebound, Takes Aim at December Top
• Crude Oil Stalling at $50 Figure, Gold Prices Treading Water

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be preparing to turn lower after prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick. A daily close below the 50% Fibonacci expansionat 11648 exposes the 38.2% level at 11577. Alternatively, a push above the 61.8% Fib at 11719 opens the door for a challenge of the 76.4% expansion at 11807.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to launch a recovery after topping as expected. A break above the 2079.60-94.70 area marked by the December 5 high and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion exposes the 50% level at 2126.90. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 2054.70 targets the 14.6% expansion at 2030.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices have transitioned into consolidated mode after reclaiming a foothold above the 1200/oz figure. A break back below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1208.13 aims for rising trend line support at 1181.76. Alternatively, bullish resumption that takes prices through the 50% level at 1220.88 targets the 61.8% Fib at 1233.62.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices found support at the psychologically significant $50/barrel figure, a barrier reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 49.37. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 76.4% level at 46.00. Alternatively, a turn above the 50% Fib at 52.10 targets the 38.2% expansion at 54.20.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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• EURUSD first long term bearish breakout attempt
• AUDUSD small range weekly reversal at long term support zone
• USDJPY wider consolidation could materialize

EUR/USD
Weekly




-“BIG picture, monthly RSI has broken out of a triangle pattern. Sometimes, a pattern breakout in momentum (or OBV) precedes the breakout in price. The development’s implications are obviously significant.”
-EURUSD has now taken out the 2012 and 2010 lows. Only the 2005 low remains before ‘free-fall’ territory towards the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the 2000 low near 1.12. Given insanely one sided sentiment for an extended period of time however, this first attempt at the 2005 low may fail and give way to a much needed countertrend move.
-A number of calls for parity have been published recently. While the long term pattern suggests an eventual print near .90 (in 2016 or 2017), the sudden aggressively bearish calls come just after a record small speculator short position and record open interest in euro futures was recorded in November. The same COT profile was evident in May 2012, before the EURUSD bottomed in July. Aggressive forecasts are often published when it’s popular to do so, which means that the trend is embedded in the public consciousness to the point of extremity. The path to .90 or so won’t be smooth.

GBP/USD
Weekly




-“A period of congestion may be in order as price has bounced from near the 50% retracement of the advance from the 2013 low but the drop under 1.6050 produces a pivot high on 9/19 and allows one to draw a downward sloping channel.”
-Like EURUSD, GBPUSD is at a long term support and this is a good spot for a rebound.

AUD/USD
Weekly




-“AUDUSD was unable to hold a long term parallel. The risk is for lower prices with the May 2010 low at .8067 and the 2005 high at .7986 of interest as supports”.
-AUDUSD dipped as low as .8031 this week, which is within the .7927-.8067 long term support zone (2010 low to 50% of rally from 2001 low with 2004 and 2005 lows in between). A small range weekly key reversal is present, which may set the stage for a recovery.

NZD/USD
Weekly




-NZDUSD is bouncing from the October 2009 high but one can’t help but notice that a major double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370. Near term, consolidation since September could be taking the form of a triangle or flat.

USD/JPY
Weekly




-“USDJPY has reached touched its 20 DMA for the first time since late October. Conditions are much more extreme than they were last year at this time but the 20 DMA propelled USDJPY higher last December before the big January decline.”
-USDJPY held up into the New Year and said January decline is underway. A sideways pattern could take hold between roughly 117 and 120.

USD/CAD
Weekly




-“USDCAD has propelled higher and is probably headed into upper parallels. Levels of interest on the upside are 1.1666 (Fibonacci) and 1.1723 (June 2009 high).”
-USDCAD took out both mentioned levels and is now testing the 2007 high and major upper parallel (the 61.8% extension of the 2007-2009 rally from the 2011 low is at 1.1882 as well). If a pullback is going to materialize, then it likely happens from here.

USD/CHF
Weekly




-“USDCHF has traded into median line support and former congestion (.9300-.9430). Start looking higher again. .9580 is resistance within the range and .9400/30 is support. A target level in the event of a new high is .9750.”
-USDCHF exceeded its .9750 objective and has continued into a line that extends off of the 2008 and 2010 highs. The line that extends off of the 2005 and 2008 highs is at about 1.0300. Bottom line; here to 1.0300 is resistance for a pullback.



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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Chart Setup Points to Topping at Six-Year High
• SPX 500 May Be Readying to Resume Selloff After Rebound
• Crude Oil Targets $46.00, Gold En Route to December Top

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices look likely to continue downward following the appearance of a bearish Evening Star candle pattern having reversed as expected. A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracementat 11599 exposes the 23.6% level at 11527. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 11699 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% threshold at 11796.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A secondary top may now be in place as a corrective bounce is capped by a Dark Cloud Cover candle setup. Near-term support is at 2028, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that exposing the 38.2% level at 1988.00. Alternatively, a turn above the January 9 high at 2068.60 targets the December 29 top at 2092.60.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to press upward, with December’s swing top now in the crosshairs. A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1233.62 exposes the 76.4% level at 1249.39. Alternatively, a reversal below the 50% Fib at 1220.88 aims for the 38.2% expansion at 1208.13.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices accelerated downward, with sellers now aiming to challenge the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 46.00. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 100% level at 40.55. Alternatively, a turn above the 61.8% Fib at 49.37 targets the 50% expansion at 52.10.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

More...

• EURUSD first long term bearish breakout attempt
• AUDUSD follows through on prior week’s reversal
• USDJPY volatile range

EUR/USD
Weekly



-“BIG picture, monthly RSI has broken out of a triangle pattern. Sometimes, a pattern breakout in momentum (or OBV) precedes the breakout in price. The development’s implications are obviously significant.”
-EURUSD has now taken out the 2012 and 2010 lows. Only the 2005 low remains before ‘free-fall’ territory towards the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the 2000 low near 1.12. Given insanely one sided sentiment for an extended period of time however, this first attempt at the 2005 low may fail and give way to a much needed countertrend move.
-A number of calls for parity have been published recently. While the long term pattern suggests an eventual print near .90, the sudden aggressively bearish calls come just after a record small speculator short position and record open interest in euro futures was recorded in November. The same COT profile was evident in May 2012, before the EURUSD bottomed in July. Aggressive forecasts are often published when it’s comfortable to do so, which means that the trend is embedded in the public consciousness to the point of extremity. The path to .90 or so won’t be smooth (in other words…more 2 way trade). Former support may provide resistance from 1.2040 to 1.2330.

GBP/USD
Weekly




-“A period of congestion may be in order as price has bounced from near the 50% retracement of the advance from the 2013 low but the drop under 1.6050 produces a pivot high on 9/19 and allows one to draw a downward sloping channel.”
-GBPUSD is at a major level in 1.51. Failure to find support here would open up the 2013 low at 1.4812. The gap at 1.5325 could still be of the breakaway variety as the rally stalled prior to the level.

AUD/USD
Weekly




-“AUDUSD was unable to hold a long term parallel. The risk is for lower prices with the May 2010 low at .8067 and the 2005 high at .7986 of interest as supports”.
-“AUDUSD dipped as low as .8031, which is within the .7927-.8067 long term support zone (2010 low to 50% of rally from 2001 low with 2004 and 2005 lows in between). A small range weekly key reversal is present, which may set the stage for a recovery.”

NZD/USD
Weekly



-NZDUSD is bouncing from the October 2009 high but one can’t help but notice that a major double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370. Near term, consolidation since September could be taking the form of a triangle or flat.

USD/JPY
Weekly




-“USDJPY held up into the New Year and said January decline is underway. A sideways pattern could take hold between roughly 117 and 120.”
-USDJPY dipped under 116 this week but the range described remains intact. Failure to hold range lows could target 110.

USD/CAD
Weekly




-“USDCAD has propelled higher and is probably headed into upper parallels. Levels of interest on the upside are 1.1666 (Fibonacci) and 1.1723 (June 2009 high).”
-USDCAD took out both mentioned levels and has broken the 2007 high, major upper parallel and 61.8% extension of the 2007-2009 rally from the 2011 low at 1.1882. The market printed over the psychological 1.20 today and closed below. Some long wicks the last few days could indicate a coming pullback but weakness under 1.1800 is needed to suggest as much and shift focus to support at 1.1560.



More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Remains Locked in Familiar Consolidation Range
• S&P 500 Rebounds After Finding Support Below 2000 Figure
• Gold Targeting $1300, Crude Oil Breaks Channel Resistance

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are struggling with downside follow-through having topped as expected. A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracementat 11599 exposes the 23.6% level at 11527. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 11699 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% threshold at 11796.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1988.00 exposes the 50% level at 1955.80. Alternatively, a turn back above the 23.6% Fib at 2028.00 aims for the January 9 high at 2068.60.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices appear poised to continue higher after rising to the strongest level in over four months. A daily close above the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1300.39 exposes the 138.2% level at 1316.16. Alternatively, a turn back below the 100% Fib at 1274.89 targets the 1249.39-55.20 area marked by the 76.4% expansion and the October 21 high.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to recover as expected. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 50.49 exposes the 23.6% level at 53.77. Alternatively, a reversal below channel top resistance-turned-support at 48.25 targets the January 13 low at 45.17.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Still Waiting to Follow-Through on Reversal Signal
• S&P 500 Struggling to Extend Reversal Below December Low
• Crude Oil Bounce Falters Above $50 Figure, Gold Prices Stall

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be carving out a top after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candle pattern. Near-term support is at 11599, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11527. Alternatively, a turn above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 11699 clears the way for a test of the 38.2% threshold at 11796.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1988.00 exposes the 50% level at 1955.80. Alternatively, a turn back above the 23.6% Fib at 2028.00 aims for the January 9 high at 2068.60.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices appear poised to continue higher after rising to the strongest level in over four months. A daily close above the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1300.39 exposes the 138.2% level at 1316.16. Alternatively, a turn back below the 100% Fib at 1274.89 targets the 1249.39-55.20 area marked by the 76.4% expansion and the October 21 high.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to recover as expected. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 50.49 exposes the 23.6% level at 53.77. Alternatively, a reversal below channel top resistance-turned-support at 47.45 targets the January 13 low at 45.17.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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