Technical Analysis

• EUR/USD stalls ahead of key Gann level
• GBP/USD in consolidation mode
• EUR/CHF cyclical confluence early this week

EUR/USD

• EUR/USD fell sharply lower last week after failing at the 1x2 Gann angle line of the year’s high in the 1.2600 region
• Our near-term trend bias is negative in the exchange rate while below 1.2505
• A Gann level at 1.2350 is the next downside pivot of note in the exchange rate
• The next turn window of significance is eyed early next month
• A close over 1.2505 would turn us positive on EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.2500.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
EUR/USD	1.2325	1.2450	1.2405	1.2455	1.2505

GBP/USD

• GBP/USD is in consolidation mode above the 1.5620 12th square root relationship of the year’s high
• Our near-term trend bias is lower in GBP/USD while below 1.5840
• A close under 1.5620 is needed to signal that a new leg lower in the rate is underway
• A very minor turn window is seen on Tuesday
• A close over the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.5840 would turn us positive on Cable

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the short side while under 1.5840.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
GBP/USD	1.5565	1.5620	1.5675	1.5720	1.5840

EUR/CHF



We don't like betting on central bank interventions. As traders who have been long the EUR/CHF over the past few months can probably attest - central banks are not always on the same time table as speculators. The ‘mental capital’ wasted on waiting for central banks to do what they promised is usually not worth the effort. That said, there are times when cyclical relationships begin to align with the agenda of the monetary authorities. We think we are about to undergo one of those periods in EUR/CHF as several medium-term cyclical relationships are converging over the next few days. In our view, this increases the potential for a change in trend or at least some decent sort of counter trend attempt. Coincidentally (or perhaps not) this timing relationship convergence is coinciding with a more positive news cycle with respect to the cross as recent opinion polls regarding the Swiss gold referendum have swung dramatically in favor of the “No” camp which should help relieve some of the recent pressure. Also, this morning’s sight deposit numbers seem to confirm that the SNB indeed has been intervening.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Extends Advance for a Fourth Consecutive Day
• S&P 500 Reaccelerates, Produces Largest Gain in a Week
• Crude Oil Rebound Stumbles, Gold Prices Treading Water

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices edged higher for a fourth consecutive day, with buyers seemingly on pace to set a new year-to-date high. Near-term resistance is at 11374, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 11422. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib at 11315 opens the door for a challenge of the 14.6% expansion at 11278.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to march higher after clearing resistance at 2051.00, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with buyers aiming to challenge the 38.2% level at 2081.20. A further push beyond that targets the 50% Fib at 2105.60. Alternatively, a reversal back below 2051.00 on a daily closing basis targets the 2022.10-32.30 area marked by the 14.6% expansion and the September 19 high.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are edging upward en route toward resistance at 1212.23, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A daily close above this barrier exposes a falling trend line at 1226.78. Alternatively, a reversal below the 1178.86-80.84 zone (December 2013 low, 23.6% Fib) targets the 14.6% retracement at 1161.49.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices stumbled after trying to bounce as expected following the formation of a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 78.95 exposes the 38.2% level at 77.32. Alternatively, a break above the 14.6% Fib at 79.96 sees falling trend line resistance at 80.91.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Continues to Rise, Establishes New 5-Year High
• S&P 500 Stalls at Record High, Snaps Three-Day Win Streak
• Crude Oil Struggling for Follow-Through, Gold Vulnerable

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to push higher, advancing to set a new five-year high. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 11374 exposes the 50% level at 11422. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 11315 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 11278.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices stalled after setting yet another record high, snapping a three-day winning streak. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 2081.20 exposes the 50% level at 2105.60. Alternatively, a move below the 23.6% Fib at 2051.00 targets the 2022.10-32 areamarked by the 14.6% expansion and the September 19 high.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are carving out a bearish Rising Wedge chart formation, hinting a move lower may be ahead. A daily close below the pattern’s floor at 1196.21 exposes the 1178.86-80.84 area (December 2013 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). Alternatively, a push above the intersection of the wedge top and the 38.2% level at 1212.23 targets a falling trend line set from early June, now at 1224.37.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are struggling with follow-through having attempted a recovery as expected following the appearance of a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A daily close below rising trend line support at 78.38 exposes the November 14 low at 76.74. Alternatively, a reversal above falling trend line resistance at 80.50 targets the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 82.43.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Back on the Offensive as Prices Set Five-Year High
• S&P 500 Probes Support, Threatens Monthly Uptrend Reversal
• Gold at 3-Week Low, Crude Oil Hits Levels Unseen Since 2009

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Buyers are back on the offensive, with prices pushing to a new five-year high. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 11391 exposes the 38.2% level at 11457. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 11350 clears the way for a test of the November 27 low at 11284.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are probing below support at the bottom of a rising channel set from early November (2061.70), with a breach of this barrier on a daily closing basis exposing the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2038.40. Near-term resistance is at 2075.90, the November 26 high, followed by the channel top at 2087.90.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, completing a Rising Wedge chart pattern. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1156.94 exposes the 1125.55-1130.10 area (November 7 low, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a turn above the 14.6% Fib at 1176.29 targets the November 21 high at 1207.68.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to face heavy selling pressure, dropping to the weakest level in five years. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 66.71 exposes the 50% level at 62.12. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% Fib at 72.40 aims for the 14.6% expansion at 75.90.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Retreats into Digestion Mode After Hitting 5-Year High
• S&P 500 Breaks Monthly Uptrend, Drops Most Since Mid-October
• Gold Mounts Sharp Recovery, Crude Oil Snaps 5-Day Loss Streak

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices stumbled after spiking to a new five-year high, finishing the day with a modest loss. Near-term support is at 11350, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the November 27 low at 11284. Alternatively, a turn above the 23.6% Fib at 11391 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% expansion at 11457.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned sharply lower, producing the largest daily drawdown since mid-October. Sellers now aim to challenge the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2038.40, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 2015.20-22.10 area marked by the 23.6% level and the September 19 high. Alternatively, a turn above channel bottom support-turned-resistance at 2064.70 targets the November 23 high at 2075.90.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices vaulted aggressively higher after tapping a three-week low. Near-term resistance is in the 1212.23-19.41 area marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a falling trend line set from early July. A break above this barrier exposes the 50% level at 1237.59. Alternatively, a reversal below support at 1180.84, the 23.6% Fib, aims for the 14.6% retracement at 1161.49.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled upward after hitting the lowest levels since 2009, snapping a five-day losing streak. Near-term resistance is at 75.31, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 77.72. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 72.33 aims for the 14.6% retracement at 70.50.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Poised to Continue Higher on Another Resistance Break
• S&P 500 Moves to Re-Test Recently Breached Chart Support Level
• Gold Prices Pull Back After Largest Daily Rally in Over Two Years

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices issued their strongest close in five years, with prices seemingly poised to continue marching higher. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 11457 exposes the 50% level at 11511. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 11391 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 11350.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices corrected higher after producing the largest drawdown since mid-October. A break above channel floor support-turned-resistance at 2071.10 exposes the November 26 high at 2075.90, followed by the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2086.60. Alternatively, a renewed push downward that takes prices below the 14.6% Fib retracement at 2038.40 aims for the 2015.20-22.10 area, marked by the 23.6% threshold and the September 19 high.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices backed off a bit after producing the largest daily advance in over two years. Near-term resistance is in the 1212.23-17.97 area marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a falling trend line set from early July. A break above this barrier exposes the 50% level at 1237.59. Alternatively, a reversal below support at 1180.84, the 23.6% Fib, aims for the 14.6% retracement at 1161.49.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are in consolidation move above the 70.00 figure. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 70.84 exposes the 14.6% level at 69.57. Alternatively, a move above the 38.2% Fib at 72.89 targets the 50% retracement at 74.56.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Pauses to Consolidate Before Key US Employment Data
• S&P 500 Technical Positioning Warns a Pullback May Be Coming
• Crude Oil Vulnerable to Deeper Losses After Breaking 70.00 Mark

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices stalled to consolidate gains after establishing yet another five-year high ahead of the much-anticipated US Employment report. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 11457 exposes the 50% level at 11511. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 11391 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 11350.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to consolidate, with negative RSI divergence warning of ebbing upside momentum and hinting a turn lower may be ahead. A drop below the 2040.10-49.10 area marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and the December 1 low exposes the 2016.80-22.10 zone (23.6% level, September 19 high). Alternatively, a move above the 2075.90-86.60 region (November 26 high, 14.6% Fib expansion) targets the 23.6% expansion at 2109.80.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are in digestion mode below key trend line resistance guiding the down trend since early July. A break above this barrier (now at 1216.16) exposes the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1237.59. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% level at 1180.84 targets the 14.6% Fib at 1161.49.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices look poised to continue lower after breaching support below the 70.00 figure. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 67.63 exposes the 50% level at 65.96. Alternatively, a move above the 23.6% Fib at 69.68 targets the 14.6% expansion at 70.95.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Pauses to Consolidate After Biggest Rally in 5 Weeks
• S&P 500 Showing Early Signs of Downward Reversal Validation
• Gold in Consolidation Mode, Crude Oil Drops to Five-Year Low

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to consolidate after producing the largest daily rally in five weeks. Near-term resistance is at 11511, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 11565. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 11457 clears the way for a test of the 23.6% expansion at 11391.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices began to turn lower as expected. A drop below the 2041.50-49.10 area marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and the December 1 low exposes the 2018.10-22.10 zone (23.6% level, September 19 high). Alternatively, a move above the 2075.90-86.60 region (November 26 high, 14.6% Fib expansion) targets the 23.6% expansion at 2109.80.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices met resistance at a falling trend line set from early July. A break below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1189.74 exposes the 23.6% level at 1170.39. Alternatively, a daily close above the trend line (now at 1213.04) targets the December 1 high at 1221.13.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing below support at 65.96, the 50% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close below this barrier exposes the 61.8% level at 64.30. Alternatively, a move above the 38.2% Fib at 67.63 targets the 23.6% expansion at 69.68.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Chart Setup Points to Downward Correction Ahead
• S&P 500 May Have Formed a Double Top Below 2100 Figure
• Crude Oil Drop Pauses, Gold Breaks Five-Month Down Trend

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be preparing for a pullback having put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below a five-year high. A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 11434 exposes the 23.6% level at 11379. Alternatively, a turn above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 11528 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% threshold at 11616.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices began to turn lower as expected. A drop below the 2041.50-49.10 area marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and the December 1 low exposes the 2018.10-22.10 zone (23.6% level, September 19 high). Alternatively, a move above the 2075.90-86.60 region (November 26 high, 14.6% Fib expansion) targets the 23.6% expansion at 2109.80.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices overcome resistance at a falling trend line set from early July, exposing the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1237.59. A break above this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 61.8% level at 1262.96. Alternatively, a turn back below the intersection of the trend line and the 38.2% Fib at 1212.23 targets the 23.6% retracement at 1180.84.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to consolidate losses after five consecutive days of downward momentum. A break below the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 65.96 exposes the 61.8% level at 64.30. Alternatively, a move above the 38.2% Fib at 67.63 targets the 23.6% expansion at 69.68.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Correction Continues for Third Consecutive Day
• S&P 500 Accelerates Downward, Falls Most in Two Months
• Gold Stalls Following Breakout, Crude Oil Drop Resumes

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower from a five-year high as expected after completing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 11379, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 11291. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib at 11434 clears the way for a test December 8 high at 11522



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, issuing the largest decline in two months. A push below the 2018.10-22.10areamarked by the 23.6%Fibonacci retracementand theSeptember 19 highexposes the 38.2% level at 1980.00. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 2041.50-49.10 zone (14.6% Fib, December 1 low) targets the 2075.90-79.60 region (November 26 and December 5 highs).



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to consolidate after clearing resistance at a falling trend line set from early July. A break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1237.59 on a daily closing basis exposes the 61.8% level at 1262.96. Alternatively, a turn back below the intersection of the trend line and the 38.2% Fib at 1212.23 targets the 23.6% retracement at 1180.84.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continued to move lower after yesterday’s brief respite, with sellers now testing the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 64.30. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 76.4% level at 62.25. Alternatively, a reversal above the 50% Fib at 65.96 targets the 38.2% expansion at 67.63.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...