Technical Analysis

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Chart Setup Hints at Key Bullish Reversal
• S&P 500 Sinks Back to Monthly Trend Line Support
• Crude Oil Jumps to One-Month High, Gold Still Flat

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices appear to have set a major double bottom at 10375, the October 2013 floor. An upward trend change is being hinted by a break above resistance at the top of a falling channel that had guided the downward trajectory since the beginning of the year. Resistance is in the 10474-95 area, with a break above that clearing the way for a move to challenge the 10589-619 region. The channel top, now at 10451, has been recast as near-term support.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at a rising trend line set from late April, now at 1869.00. A break downward exposes the 1850.10-61.90 area, marked by recent swing lows. Resistance is in the 1883.80-88.60 region, bracketed by the March 7 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A push through that clears the way for a challenge of the 1897.40-1899.10 zone, the site of the 38.2% level and the April 4 peak.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating below resistance in the 1305.69-15.60 area, marked by the top of a descending Triangle chart formation and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 1330.18. The descending Triangle argues in favor of bearish continuation however (though confirmation is absent for now). Near-term support is at 1277.00, the Triangle bottom.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are pushing higher to set sights on resistance at 103.20, the intersection of a rising trend line set from mid-March and the 50% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier initially exposes the 61.8% level at 103.37. Near-term support is at 102.74, the 38.2% Fib, with a move back below that eyeing the 23.6% expansion at 102.17.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points

• USD/JPY rebounds sharply from just above YTD low
• AUD/USD nearing double top trigger
• EUR/USD cyclical picture remains negative for at least another week

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

• USD/JPY touched its lowest level since the start of February on Wednesday before rebounding aggressively off the 127% extension of the April/May advance
• Our near-term trend bias remains lower in USD/JPY while below 102.35
• A daily close under 101.35 by more than a few pips is needed to confirm the start of a more impiortant downleg in USD/JPY
• An important cycle turn window is seen next week
• Only strength back through the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s high at 102.35 would shift the near-term trend bias positive

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 102.35.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/JPY	*100.75	*101.35	101.60	101.75	*102.35

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

• AUD/USD has fallen sharply since failing last week at the 78.6% retracement of the April/May decline near .9405
• Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below .9405
• Interim support is seen around .9200, but the next real important action/reaction zone in the exchange rate looks to be around .9145/65
• A cycle turn window of some importance looks to be around month-end
• A move back through .9405 would turn us positive on the Aussie

AUD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while .9405 holds.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
AUD/USD	*.9145/65	.9200	.9230	.9310	*.9405

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD



Since reversing from the important cycle turn window that we highlighted at the start of the month the euro has come under steady downside pressure. On Wednesday, EUR/USD touched its lowest level in over three months before rebounding off the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3640 - which is also just above the widely watched 200-day moving average. Was this an important low in the euro? We don’t think so. With the next important turn window eyed around the end of the month/first week of June we suspect general weakness will persist at least until then before a meaningful recovery in the euro is seen (though some minor strength looks possible early next week). The bottom of the1-year standard deviation channel coincides with the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high near 1.3550 and this still looks like a reasonable downside objective. Unexpected aggressive strength over 1.3820 would suggest that the euro has bottomed ahead of schedule.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

More...

• EURUSD follows through on reversal
• AUDUSD weekly RSI a ‘tell’
• USDJPY Thrust Back into Range

EUR/USD
Weekly




-“The weak momentum profile is not suggestive of a strong bull.” Weekly momentum is just as telling. The most recent top is accompanied by RSI divergence with RSI < 60. This is exceptionally bearish. A similar RSI pattern occurred in July 2008. If the rate does trade to a new high, then a drop back into the range would be required in order to create a tradable high (complete an ending diagonal from 1.3294…highlighted). It’s worth mentioning that important tops have formed in April/May in recent years. A 1.3750 break would ‘announce’ that a downtrend has commenced.”
-EURUSD made a new high and the sharp reversal supports the ending diagonal (wedge) interpretation. Diagonals are often fully retraced (sometimes quickly), which yields a target of 1.3294. Recent developments put to rest the idea that EURUSD has broken the line that extends off of the 2008 and 2011 highs. Rather, a failed breakout and top would keep with the pattern of 3 year cycle tops. 1.3750 is an important reference point (year open). 1.3840 remains important to the integrity of the reversal.

GBP/USD
Weekly




-GBPUSD is showing signs of a top. The rally failed 2 weeks ago just above the August 5, 2009 close (high day for the entire move off of the 2009 low). The ensuing decline was sharp but found support at the line that extends off of the November, February, and March lows. The rally from that low (1.6730) retraced slightly more than 61.8% of the decline from the top. It’s early but these are characteristics seen at market turns.

AUD/USD
Weekly



-AUDUSD failed just above .9400 (and just shy of cited resistance at .9412/23) last week and saw its 2nd largest weekly decline of the year. Weekly RSI failed just above 60 in April and just below 60 last week. Since the 2011 top, each RSI failure near 60 has led to a weak AUDUSD.

NZD/USD
Weekly



-“Don’t forget about the line that extends off of the 1996 and 2007 highs. That line crosses through the 2008, 2011, and highs as well. In 2011 (record free float high), the rate surged through the line in late July before topping on August 1st.”
-After trading primarily between .8500 and .8700 for the last 6 weeks, NZDUSD topped right at the mentioned line from 1996. The top also came in just above the August 1, 2011 close (that was the day of the free float record). The weekly key reversal and follow through this week bolsters the idea that NZDUSD has topped.

USD/JPY
Weekly



-“USDJPY has bounced from the line that extends off of the February and 3/14 lows. The rally from the February low channels in a corrective manner and makes 104.12 important from a bigger picture bearish perspective.”
-“There is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55. Of course, the path to get to that level is far from clear.” The failed run at the lows gives scope to additional ranging between 101.35 and 103.25.

USD/CAD
Weekly



-Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.
-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.
-Action since the January high may compose a complex correction (triple zigzag in this case). Above 1.0954 would argue for a low being in place.

USD/CHF
Weekly



-The same momentum considerations that apply to EURUSD apply to USDCHF (the March price low occurred with RSI above 30). Weekly RSI has been unable to register an ‘oversold’ reading despite the market declining for almost 2 years.
-“Patter wise, the decline from the 2012 high ‘fits’ well as a 3 wave correction with wave C as an ending diagonal. When (if) this market turns is up in the air.” Did we get our answer? USDCHF is above the line that extends off of the July 2013 and January 2014 highs. .8803 is important to the integrity of the reversal. Beware of resistance from the February 2013 low at .9020.


More...

• EURUSD rebounds from top of support zone
• GBPUSD biggest test of uptrend yet; rolling over?
• USDCAD at channel; great place for a low

EUR/USD
Weekly




-“The weak momentum profile is not suggestive of a strong bull.” Weekly momentum is just as telling. The most recent top is accompanied by RSI divergence with RSI < 60. This is exceptionally bearish. A similar RSI pattern occurred in July 2008. If the rate does trade to a new high, then a drop back into the range would be required in order to create a tradable high (complete an ending diagonal from 1.3294…highlighted). It’s worth mentioning that important tops have formed in April/May in recent years. A 1.3750 break would ‘announce’ that a downtrend has commenced.”
-EURUSD made a new high and the sharp reversal supports the ending diagonal (wedge) interpretation. Diagonals are often fully retraced (sometimes quickly), which yields a target of 1.3294. Recent developments put to rest the idea that EURUSD has broken the line that extends off of the 2008 and 2011 highs. Rather, a failed breakout and top would keep with the pattern of 3 year cycle tops. 1.3750 is an important reference point (year open) but 1.3722 is now important to the integrity of the near term downtrend.
-Near term, EURUSD has bounced from the top of a well-defined 1.3560/90 support zone. Friday’s rally stalled at former support (5/15 low) but respect potential for a bigger bounce next week.

GBP/USD
Weekly



-GBPUSD is showing signs of a top. The rally failed the week that ended 5/9 just above the August 5, 2009 close (high day for the entire move off of the 2009 low). The ensuing decline was sharp and found support at the line that extends off of the November, February, and March lows. That line broke this week (can be seen on the daily) and provides the best (not earliest) evidence yet of a broader shift.

AUD/USD
Weekly



-AUDUSD failed just above .9400 (and just shy of cited resistance at .9412/23) last week and saw its 2nd largest weekly decline of the year. Weekly RSI failed just above 60 in April and just below 60 last week. Since the 2011 top, each RSI failure near 60 has led to a top or topping process (range for several weeks then a breakdown...that appears to be the case now).

NZD/USD
Weekly



-“Don’t forget about the line that extends off of the 1996 and 2007 highs. That line crosses through the 2008, 2011, and highs as well. In 2011 (record free float high), the rate surged through the line in late July before topping on August 1st.”
-After trading primarily between .8500 and .8700 for the last 6 weeks, NZDUSD topped right at the mentioned line from 1996. The top also came in just above the August 1, 2011 close (that was the day of the free float record). The weekly key reversal and follow through this week bolsters the idea that NZDUSD has topped. .8600 and just above is resistance.

USD/JPY
Weekly



-“USDJPY has bounced from the line that extends off of the February and 3/14 lows. The rally from the February low channels in a corrective manner and makes 104.12 important from a bigger picture bearish perspective.”
-“There is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55. Of course, the path to get to that level is far from clear.” Near term, the failed run at the lows gives scope to additional ranging between 101.35 and 103.25.

USD/CAD
Weekly



-Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.
-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.
-Action since the January high may compose a complex correction (triple zigzag in this case). The rate is hugging channel support…this is a good place for a turn higher.

USD/CHF
Weekly



-The same momentum considerations that apply to EURUSD apply to USDCHF (the March price low occurred with RSI above 30). Weekly RSI has been unable to register an ‘oversold’ reading despite the market declining for almost 2 years.
-“Patter wise, the decline from the 2012 high ‘fits’ well as a 3 wave correction with wave C as an ending diagonal. When (if) this market turns is up in the air.” Did we get our answer? USDCHF is above the line that extends off of the July 2013 and January 2014 highs. .8803 is important to the integrity of the reversal. Beware of resistance from the February 2013 low at .9020.


More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Outlook Favors Gains After Corrective Pullback
• S&P 500 Drifts Upward, Setting Yet Another Record High
• Gold Falls to 4-Month Low, Crude Oil Finds Chart Support

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back after hitting the highest level in nearly two months. Overall positioning continues to favor the upside however after the index set a double bottom and cleared falling channel resistance set from January. The greenback is now testing resistance-turned-support in the 10474-95 area, with a reversal back below that opening the door for a retest of the channel top at 10424. Near-term resistance is at 10531, the May 28 high. A move above that aims for the 10589-619 region.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke resistance at 1919.40, the 61.8%Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 76.4% level at 1933.00. A further push beyond that targets the 100% Fib at 1954.90.Alternatively, a reversal back below1919.40 clears the way for a descent to 1908.40, marked by the 50% expansion.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, confirming a descending Triangle chart formation. Sellers are testing support at 1243.24, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this boundary exposes the 100% level at 1216.11. Resistance is at 1260.03, the 61.8% Fib, with a reversal back above that clearing the way for an advance into the 1273.59-77.00 area marked by the 50% retracement and the Triangle bottom.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled from trend line resistance set from early March to test support at 102.59, marked by an upward-sloping barrier set from early May. A break downward initially exposes the 38.2% level at 102.11. Trend line resistance is now at 104.34, followed by swing highs in the 104.49-105.19 area.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Recoils From Support, Aims to Renew Uptrend
• S&P 500 Levitates to Produce Yet Another Record High
• Crude Oil Edging Lower Toward Support Above $102.00

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices have launched a swift recovery following a brief correction lower from two-month highs. Positioning has favored the upside after prices set a double bottom and broke the down trend from January. Near-term resistance is at 10531, the May 28 high. A move above that aims for the 10589-619 region. Support is in the 10474-95 area, with a reversal below that opening the door for a retest of the channel top at 10421.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke resistance at 1919.40, the 61.8%Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 76.4% level at 1933.00. A further push beyond that targets the 100% Fib at 1954.90.Alternatively, a reversal back below1919.40 clears the way for a descent to 1908.40, marked by the 50% expansion.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, confirming a descending Triangle chart formation. Sellers are testing support at 1243.24, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this boundary exposes the 100% level at 1216.11. Resistance is at 1260.03, the 61.8% Fib, with a reversal back above that clearing the way for an advance into the 1273.59-77.00 area marked by the 50% retracement and the Triangle bottom.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing through trend line support set from the May 1 low to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 102.11. A break below this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 101.38. Falling trend line resistance is now at 104.32, followed by swing highs in the 104.49-105.19 area.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Trying to Overcome Resistance at May High
• S&P 500 Pullback Hinted by Hanging Man Candlestick
• Crude Oil, Gold Sellers Take a Break at Chart Support

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices areattempting to build higher anew after bouncing from support in the 10474-95 area. Near-term resistance is at 10531, the May 28 high. A breach above that on a daily closing basis clears the way for a challenge of the 10589-619 region. Alternatively, a reversal back below 10474 targets falling channel top resistance-turned-support set from January, now at 10417.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke resistance at 1919.40, the 61.8%Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 76.4% level at 1933.00. A further push beyond that targets the 100% Fib at 1954.90.The appearance of a Hanging Man candlestick warns a pullback may be in the cards however. Reversing back below1919.40 clears the way for a descent to 1908.40, marked by the 50% expansion.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, confirming a descending Triangle chart formation. Sellers are testing support at 1243.24, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this boundary exposes the 100% level at 1216.11. Resistance is at 1260.03, the 61.8% Fib, with a reversal back above that clearing the way for an advance into the 1273.59-77.00 area marked by the 50% retracement and the Triangle bottom.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke support at a rising trend line support set from the May 1 low to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 102.11. A break below this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 101.38. Alternatively, a reversal back above the trend line (now recast as resistance at 103.14) targets a downward-sloping barrier connecting major swing highs since early March, currency at 104.29.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points

• USD/JPY testing key resistance zone
• Important turn window next week in Gold
• EUR/USD at important inflection point

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

• USD/JPY touched its highest level in over a month on Wednesday before encountering resistance near 102.75
• Our near term trend bias is lower in the rate while below 102.75
• The 101.75 area is immeidate support, but a close under the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at 101.35 is needed to set off a more serious decline
• The next week or so in an important long-term window related to the 2011 low in the exchange rate
• A daily close over 102.75 will shift the near-term trend bias higher.

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 102.75 (on a closing basis). Would need to see 103.15 give way to get more excited about any potential upside.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/JPY	*101.35	101.75	102.55	*102.75	*103.15

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

• XAU/USD fell to its lowest level since late January on Wednesday
• Our near-term trend bias is lower in the metal while under 1286
• Immediate support is eyed at 1244 ahead of a major downside attraction at 1210/20
• A minor turn window was in effect yesterday, but the middle of the month looks especially important for the yellow metal from a timing perspective
• A daily close over 1286 will turn out attention higher in gold

XAU/USD Strategy: Square. Don’t like chasing here with such an important turn window coming up and sentiment at overly bearish extremes (DSI sub 10% bulls).

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
XAU/USD	*1210/20	1244	1245	1260	*1286

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD



The ECB tomorrow looks to be the event of the week – most definitely it will be for the euro. You can drive yourself mad thinking of the possible outcomes and scenarios. On the face of it, the price action of the past few weeks would suggest the market is looking for something at least a little out of the ordinary from Mr. Draghi and friends and is vulnerable to a sharp snapback if they don’t come through. If you overthink it you can also arrive to the conclusion that ECB has disappointed virtually every time they have been in a similar situation so the real consensus is that they will do nothing and the exchange rate is actually really at risk of collapse if they come even a little bit close to laying the groundwork to more accommodative policy. I could do this all day and now I remember why I focus primarily on technicals and cycles. Taking a look at the near-term cyclical picture in EUR/USD I would say it looks probably as clear as it can before a major risk event. Short-term cycle analysis suggests Monday was a decent low in the exchange rate. If it truly was then the euro should rally at least for a week (and likely longer) meaning Thursday will probably be a disappointment and the catalyst for a more meaningful push higher. That is how I’m leaning anyway. The alternative is that my interpretation of the cyclical picture is off base here. A move under 1.3585 after the dust settles following the inevitable intraday whipsaw would be a pretty clear signal that I am wrong. This would open the door to a few more weeks of downside.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Outlook Favors Renewed Gains After Pullback
• S&P 500 Continues to Push Higher Toward 2000 Figure
• Gold Bounces, Crude Oil Prices in Consolidation Mode

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices corrected lower but overall positioning continues to favor strength after prices set a double bottom and cleared channel resistance guiding the down trend from January. The index is testing resistance-turned-support in the 10474-95 area, with a reversal back below that opening the door for a retest of the channel top at 10410. Near-term resistance is at 10531, the May 28 high. A move above that aims for the 10589-619 region.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke resistance at 1933.00, the 76.4%Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 100% level at 1954.90. A further push beyond that targets the 123.6% Fib at 1976.80.Alternatively, a reversal back below 1933.00 clears the way for a descent to 1919.40, marked by the 61.8% expansion.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, confirming a descending Triangle chart formation. A break below the 76.4% Fibonacci expansionat 1243.24 exposes the 100% level at 1216.11. Resistance is at 1260.03, the 61.8% Fib, with a reversal back above that clearing the way for an advance into the 1273.59-77.00 area marked by the 50% retracement and the Triangle bottom.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke support at a rising trend line support set from the May 1 low to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 102.11. A break below this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 101.38. Alternatively, a reversal back above the trend line (now recast as resistance at 103.54) targets a downward-sloping barrier connecting major swing highs since early March, currency at 104.26.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

More...

• EURUSD volume considerations
• GBPUSD trendline confluence test
• NZDUSD responds to 50% retracement

EUR/USD
Weekly




-Long term, a failed breakout and top would keep with the pattern of 3 year cycle tops. 1.3750 is an important reference point (year open).
-As outlined in the Daily Technicals, EURUSD resolved a recent triangle with a terminal thrust and reversal. Several developments suggest that EURUSD is headed higher for at least several weeks. The reversal occurred from just above the 2014 low and near the 52 week average (which exhibits a positive slope but momentum has been trending down since August).
-Volume may help in gauging how important this low is. The lows registered in November 2013 and July 2013 were accompanied by huge peaks in transactions and volume. This week’s transactions are on par with the November low but this week’s volume is not. The implication is that this low isn’t as strong as the November and July lows (the doing of smaller traders…think volume / transactions). There are 3 points to watch for resistance moving forward…1.3750/60, 1.3800, and 1.3840.

GBP/USD
Weekly



-GBPUSD is showing signs of a top. The rally failed the week that ended 5/9 just above the August 5, 2009 close (high day for the entire move off of the 2009 low). The ensuing decline was sharp and found support at the line that extends off of the November, February, and March lows.
-That line broke 2 weeks ago (can be seen on the daily) and provides the best (not earliest) evidence yet of a broader shift. This week’s rally stalled at a trendline confluence. The development makes this week’s high (post NFP) the pivot in determining near term trend.

AUD/USD
Weekly



-The combination of the .9400 figure and weekly RSI failing near 60 indicates a lot of overhead to punch through. Since the 2011 top, each RSI failure near 60 has led to a top or topping process (range for several weeks then a breakdown...that may be the case now).

NZD/USD
Weekly



-“Don’t forget about the line that extends off of the 1996 and 2007 highs. That line crosses through the 2008, 2011, and highs as well. In 2011 (record free float high), the rate surged through the line in late July before topping on August 1st.”
-After trading primarily between .8500 and .8700, NZDUSD topped right at the mentioned line from 1996. The top also came in just above the August 1, 2011 close (that was the day of the free float record). The weekly key reversal and follow through this week bolsters the idea that NZDUSD has topped. The rebound from support this week (former high and 50% of rally from February low) give scope to a move towards resistance near .8600.

USD/JPY
Weekly



-“USDJPY has bounced from the line that extends off of the February and 3/14 lows. The rally from the February low channels in a corrective manner and makes 104.12 important from a bigger picture bearish perspective.”
-“There is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55. Of course, the path to get to that level is far from clear.” 103.25 is in focus as resistance. Watch the line that extends off of the January and April highs.

USD/CAD
Weekly



-Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.
-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.
-Action since the January high may compose a complex correction (triple zigzag in this case). The turn higher from channel support suggests that the long term bull has resumed.

USD/CHF
Weekly



-The same momentum considerations that apply to EURUSD apply to USDCHF (the March price low occurred with RSI above 30). Weekly RSI has been unable to register an ‘oversold’ reading despite the market declining for almost 2 years.
-“Patter wise, the decline from the 2012 high ‘fits’ well as a 3 wave correction with wave C as an ending diagonal. When (if) this market turns is up in the air.” USDCHF found top this week from just above the February 2013 low at .9020. The reversal probably caps USDCHF for at least a few weeks. Supports are seen at .8860 and .8800. In summary, the rate is probably capped for a few weeks before another rally attempt.


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