Technical Analysis

Originally Posted by newdigital

Forex Trading Volume Officially Hits $4 Trillion

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This morning the Bank of International Settlements released its Triennial FX survey which is basically the market’s benchmark for forex volume and turnover. To no one’s surprise, volume has surged over the past 3 years. Between April 2007 and April 2010, global foreign exchange market increased by 20 percent from $3.3 trillion to $4.0 trillion, which is now the golden number for forex volume.

Reading between the lines, we can tell that a large part of the increase in volume is due to the trading activities of RETAIL traders! (Yes, we are making a BIG difference) According to the BIS report, 48% of the growth was in spot transactions which represents 37% of the total turnover (or total FX flow). Although swaps became more popular to trade, all other related foreign exchange instruments saw only a 7 percent increase in volume. The report also says that “the higher global foreign exchange market turnover is associated with the increased trading activity of “other financial institutions” (think retail forex brokers). Turnover in this category rose 42% and for the first time ever, reporting dealers (banks) did more transactions with “other financial institutions” than with other banks.

Attachment 4016

Of the major currency pairs, trading of EUR/USD and USD/JPY have increased while trading of the GBP/USD has decreased.

Attachment 4017

nd u mean $4 trillion every day????

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Recovery Approaching Pivotal Chart Threshold
• S&P 500 Bounce Extends for a Fourth Consecutive Session
• Crude Oil Aiming Above $105.00 After Breaking Resistance

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices began to recover as expected afterputting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Initial resistance lines up in the 10471-84 area, marked by the underside of a previously broken falling channel and the 23.6% Fib retracement. A break above the latter barrier targets the 38.2% Fib at 10536. Near-term support is at 10400, the April 10 low.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Buyers are now poised to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1870.70, with a break above that exposing the 50% level at 1889.70.Near-term support is at 1847.10, the 23.6% Fib, followed by the previously broken top of a rising channel at 1834.30.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices reversed sharply downward, edging past support at 1303.93 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and exposing the 38.2% level at 1287.14. A further push beneath that aims for the 50% Fib at 1273.57. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1303.93 sees the first layer of resistance at 1331.06, the April 15 high.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke higher as expected out of a Triangle chart formation. A break above the 50% Fibonacci expansionat 104.33 has now exposed the March 3 high at 10519, followed by the 61.8% level at 105.98. Alternatively, a reversal back below 104.33 eyes the 38.2% Fib at 102.68.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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• EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF weekly momentum considerations
• USDJPY trading difficulty described by a B wave
• NZDUSD top could be major

EUR/USD
Weekly




-“EURUSD was never able to drop under 1.3642, finding low after NFP at 1.3672. Momentum wise, I am looking for a top. RSI at each top since December has been below 70. This weak momentum profile is not suggestive of a strong bull.” Weekly momentum is just as telling. The most recent top is accompanied by RSI divergence with RSI < 60. This is exceptionally bearish. A similar RSI pattern occurred in July 2008.
-1.3909 is possible resistance before the high. If the rate does trade to a new high, then a drop back into the range would be required in order to create a tradable high. It’s worth mentioning that important tops have formed in April/May in recent years. A 1.3750 break would ‘announce’ that a downtrend has commenced.

GBP/USD
Monthly




-GBPUSD upside pressures remain intact. The line that extends off of the November and February lows pinpointed the 3/24 low and a break of the support line would suggest that February’s outside month was exhaustive.
-The momentum profile described regarding EURUSD applies to GBPUSD too. In fact, daily RSI hasn’t been above 70 since the October top. Don’t forget about extreme COT readings.

AUD/USD
Weekly



-AUDUSD made an inside week at resistance from the 2009 high, 2011 low and late November low. Weekly RSI has turned over from near 60, which has been resistance in the indicator since January 2012. This is a good place for a sharp decline if not the resumption of the longer term downtrend.

NZD/USD
Monthly




-NZDUSD completely retraced last week’s advance. I’m treating the April 10th high as a major top.
-Don’t forget about the line that extends off of the 1996 and 2007 highs. That line crosses through the 2008, 2011, and highs as well. In 2011 (record free float high), the rate surged through the line in late July before topping on August 1st.

USD/JPY
Monthly




-USDJPY has bounced from the line that extends off of the February and 3/14 lows. The rally from the February low channels in a corrective manner and makes 104.12 important from a bigger picture bearish perspective.
-There is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55. Of course, the path to get to that level is far from clear. Resistance extends into 103.05/25.

USD/CAD
Monthly




-Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.
-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.
-Action since the January high may compose a flat. The low at 1.0857 is in line with major inflection points on recent years as well as the 1/13 low (1.0842).

USD/CHF
Weekly




-The same momentum considerations that apply to EURUSD apply to USDCHF (the March price low occurred with RSI above 30). Weekly RSI has been unable to register an ‘oversold’ reading despite the market declining for almost 2 years.
-Patter wise, the decline from the 2012 high ‘fits’ well as a 3 wave correction with wave C as an ending diagonal. When (if) this market turns is up in the air. In the event of new lows, watch .8566-.8640. Above .8844 begins to turn things constructive again.


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Moves to Test Decisive Chart Resistance Barrier
• S&P 500 Rebound Stalls After Four Consecutive Advances
• Crude Oil Flounders Below $105.00, Gold Edging Lower

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices began to recover as expected afterputting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Initial resistance lines up in the 10470-84 area, marked by the underside of a previously broken falling channel and the 23.6% Fib retracement. A break above the latter barrier targets the 38.2% Fib at 10536. Near-term support is at 10400, the April 10 low.




S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Buyers are now poised to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1870.70, with a break above that exposing the 50% level at 1889.70.Near-term support is at 1847.10, the 23.6% Fib, followed by the previously broken top of a rising channel at 1827.90.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices reversed sharply downward, edging past support at 1303.93 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and exposing the 38.2% level at 1287.14. A further push beneath that aims for the 50% Fib at 1273.57. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1303.93 sees the first layer of resistance at 1331.06, the April 15 high.




CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned sharply lower below the 105.00 figure, sinking to challenge support at 103.11 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this boundary initially exposes the 38.2% level at 101.96. Near-term resistance is at 104.96, the April 16 high.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points

• Several Fibonacci timing relationships converging next week in the metal
• EUR/USD in consolidation mode below key level
• USD/CAD nearing key resistance zone

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

• EUR/USD has traded in a sideways to lower range since failing earlier in the month at the 78.6% retracement of the March to April decline in the 1.3900 area
• Our near-term trend bias is positive in the Euro while over 1.3730
• A move through 1.3900 is required to signal that a new move higher is underway
• A very minor cycle turn window is seen today
• Only weakness below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3730 would turn us negative on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Looking to buy on weakness against 1.3730.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
EUR/USD	*1.3730	1.3760	1.3815	*1.3900	1.3930

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

• USD/CAD has moved steadily higher since finding support at the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high in the 1.0855 area earlier in the month
• Our near-term trend bias is higher in Funds while above 1.0910
• Interim resistance is eyed around 1.1030, but a more important pivot come into play at a key Gann/Fibonacci convergence in the 1.1055/65 region
• Minor cycle turn windows are seen tomorrow and at the end of the week
• A move under 1.0910 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/CAD Strategy: Like being square. May look to buy on weakness later in the week.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/CAD	*1.0910	1.0960	1.1015	1.1030	*1.1065

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD



The compression in volatility in the FX space is making cycle analysis much more challenging as identifying what is a significant swing point in such an environment is extremely difficult. The good news is that historically such low levels of vol are usually followed by periods of high vol as it reverts to its mean. The second half of 2014 should see volatility pick up if history repeats. For the meantime, we will focus on markets with the clearer cyclical picture. Gold has fit this bill since peaking during a key cycle turn window back in mid-March. The recent month-to-date high in the metal also came just after an important turn window. The next couple of days look to be a minor cyclical pivot for the XAU/USD, but the real window of focus is around the middle of next week as a couple of Fibonacci time relationships will be converging at this time. Continued weakness into this period would likely set up an important low.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar: Is the Rebound a Correction or a Trend Change?
• S&P 500 Hits Two-Week High But Fails to Pierce Resistance
• Crude Oil Sinks to Support Above $103, Gold Eyes April Low

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected aftercompleting a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Initial resistance lines up in the 10469-84 area, marked by the underside of a previously broken falling channel and the 23.6% Fib retracement. A break above the latter barrier exposes the 38.2% Fib at 10536. Near-term support is at 10400, the April 10 low.




S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Buyers are now poised to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1870.70, with a break above that exposing the 50% level at 1889.70.Near-term support is at 1847.10, the 23.6% Fib, followed by the previously broken top of a rising channel at 1821.50.




GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices reversed sharply downward, edging past support at 1303.93 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and exposing the 38.2% level at 1287.14. A further push beneath that aims for the 50% Fib at 1273.57. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1303.93 sees the first layer of resistance at 1331.06, the April 15 high.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned sharply lower below the 105.00 figure, sinking to challenge support at 103.11 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this boundary initially exposes the 38.2% level at 101.96. Near-term resistance is at 104.96, the April 16 high, followed by the March 3 top at 105.19.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

More...

• AUDUSD rips off April low
• USDJPY puts in monthly high on NFP again?
• USDCAD outside day at Fibonacci level

EUR/USD
Weekly




-“EURUSD was never able to drop under 1.3642, finding low after NFP at 1.3672. Momentum wise, I am looking for a top. RSI at each top since December has been below 70. This weak momentum profile is not suggestive of a strong bull.” Weekly momentum is just as telling. The most recent top is accompanied by RSI divergence with RSI < 60. This is exceptionally bearish. A similar RSI pattern occurred in July 2008.
-1.3909 is possible resistance before the high. If the rate does trade to a new high, then a drop back into the range would be required in order to create a tradable high (complete an ending diagonal from 1.3294…highlighted). It’s worth mentioning that important tops have formed in April/May in recent years. A 1.3750 break would ‘announce’ that a downtrend has commenced.

GBP/USD
Weekly




-GBPUSD upside pressures remain intact. The line that extends off of the November and February lows pinpointed the 3/24 low and a break of the support line would suggest that February’s outside month was exhaustive.
-The market is trading at the November 2009 high. The 2009 high/2005 low rests at 1.7042. Friday’s drop reversed right at the 4/10 high of 1.6820. The latest pivot low is 1.6762. A drop below would break the near term bull trend.

AUD/USD
Weekly




-“AUDUSD made an inside week at resistance from the 2009 high, 2011 low and late November low. Weekly RSI has turned over from near 60, which has been resistance in the indicator since January 2012. This is a good place for a sharp decline if not the resumption of the longer term downtrend.”
-The rate dropped into the April low / trendline before reversing sharply. The action suggests that a recovery could materialize. I’ll look higher towards .9330/60 as long as price is above .9200. Consider that the breakdown level.

NZD/USD
Weekly




-Don’t forget about the line that extends off of the 1996 and 2007 highs. That line crosses through the 2008, 2011, and highs as well. In 2011 (record free float high), the rate surged through the line in late July before topping on August 1st.
-The rate has traded primarily between .8500 and .8700 for the last 6 weeks. The break of the range will trigger the next move---higher into a top or lower to confirm that an important top is in place.

USD/JPY
Weekly




-“USDJPY has bounced from the line that extends off of the February and 3/14 lows. The rally from the February low channels in a corrective manner and makes 104.12 important from a bigger picture bearish perspective.”
-“There is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55. Of course, the path to get to that level is far from clear. Resistance extends into 103.05/25.” USDJPY spiked into 103 on Friday (failing to reach the Fibo level at 103.05). The market remains within a range but the important level from a bigger picture bearish perspective can be lowered to Friday’s high.

USD/CAD
Weekly




-Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.
-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.
-Action since the January high may compose a flat. The low at 1.0857 is in line with major inflection points on recent years as well as the 1/13 low (1.0842).

USD/CHF
Weekly




-The same momentum considerations that apply to EURUSD apply to USDCHF (the March price low occurred with RSI above 30). Weekly RSI has been unable to register an ‘oversold’ reading despite the market declining for almost 2 years.
-Patter wise, the decline from the 2012 high ‘fits’ well as a 3 wave correction with wave C as an ending diagonal. When (if) this market turns is up in the air. In the event of new lows, watch .8566-.8640. Above .8860 begins to turn things constructive.


More...

• EURUSD 3 year cycle tops
• NZDUSD resolves disastrous trading conditions with a spike and reversal?
• USDCAD at channel support

EUR/USD
Weekly



-“The weak momentum profile is not suggestive of a strong bull.” Weekly momentum is just as telling. The most recent top is accompanied by RSI divergence with RSI < 60. This is exceptionally bearish. A similar RSI pattern occurred in July 2008. If the rate does trade to a new high, then a drop back into the range would be required in order to create a tradable high (complete an ending diagonal from 1.3294…highlighted). It’s worth mentioning that important tops have formed in April/May in recent years. A 1.3750 break would ‘announce’ that a downtrend has commenced.”
-EURUSD made a new high and the sharp reversal supports the ending diagonal (wedge) interpretation. Diagonals are often fully retraced (sometimes quickly), which yields a target of 1.3294. This week’s developments may finally put to rest the idea that the EURUSD has broken the line that extends off of the 2008 and 2011 highs. Rather, a failed breakout and top would keep with the pattern of 3 year cycle tops. 1.3750 is an important reference point (year open). 1.3840 is important to the integrity of the reversal.

GBP/USD
Weekly



-GBPUSD upside pressures remain intact. The line that extends off of the November and February lows pinpointed the 3/24 low and a break of the support line would suggest that February’s outside month was exhaustive.
-The market continues to trade around the November 2009 high. The 2009 high/2005 low rests at 1.7042. The high at this point is just above the August 5, 2009 close (high day for the entire move off of the 2009 low). The latest pivot low is 1.6820. A drop below would break the near term bull trend.

AUD/USD
Weekly



-“The rate dropped into the April low / trendline before reversing sharply. The action suggests that a recovery could materialize. I’ll look higher towards .9330/60 as long as price is above .9200. Consider that the breakdown level.”
-AUDUSD followed through on last week’s reversal, keeping the larger bull move intact. A new high could complete a zigzag (Elliott pattern) from the January low although resistance is seen at .9412/23 as well.

NZD/USD
Weekly



-“Don’t forget about the line that extends off of the 1996 and 2007 highs. That line crosses through the 2008, 2011, and highs as well. In 2011 (record free float high), the rate surged through the line in late July before topping on August 1st.”
-After trading primarily between .8500 and .8700 for the last 6 weeks, NZDUSD topped right at the mentioned line from 1996. The top also came in just above the August 1, 2011 close (that was the day of the free float record). The weekly key reversal bolsters the idea that NZDUSD is topping.

USD/JPY
Weekly



-“USDJPY has bounced from the line that extends off of the February and 3/14 lows. The rally from the February low channels in a corrective manner and makes 104.12 important from a bigger picture bearish perspective.”
-“There is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55. Of course, the path to get to that level is far from clear. Resistance extends into 103.05/25.” USDJPY spiked into 103 on Friday (failing to reach the Fibo level at 103.05). The market remains within a range but the important level from a bigger picture bearish perspective can be lowered to the NFP high.

USD/CAD
Weekly



-Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.
-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.
-Action since the January high may compose a complex correction (triple zigzag in this case). Above 1.1000 would bolster long term prospects.

USD/CHF
Weekly



-The same momentum considerations that apply to EURUSD apply to USDCHF (the March price low occurred with RSI above 30). Weekly RSI has been unable to register an ‘oversold’ reading despite the market declining for almost 2 years.
-“Patter wise, the decline from the 2012 high ‘fits’ well as a 3 wave correction with wave C as an ending diagonal. When (if) this market turns is up in the air.” Did we get our answer? USDCHF is above the line that extends off of the July 2013 and January 2014 highs. Exceeding .8952 would trigger the first break of pivot high with left and right strength of 4 since the break above the March high last May.


More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Perched at Make-or-Break Chart Resistance
• S&P 500 Rejected Downward on Another Test of 1900
• Crude Oil Rebound Pauses Below $103/barrel Figure

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices look to be attempting to set a double bottom at 10375, the October 22 close. Confirmation of the upward reversal pattern requires a breach of resistance is at 10462, marked by the top of a falling channel that has guided the benchmark currency downward since the beginning of the year. A daily close above this barrier initially targets horizontal support-turned-resistance at 10495.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Piercing Line candlestick pattern. The index pulled back from resistance at 1899.10, the April 4 high, to test rising trend line support at 1883.80. A break below this boundary exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1880.20.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating below resistance in the 1309.31-15.60 area, marked by the top of a descending Triangle chart formation and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 1330.18. The descending Triangle argues in favor of bearish continuation however (though confirmation is absent for now). Near-term support is at 1277.00, the Triangle bottom, followed by the April 24 low at 1268.40.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused after shooting higher through resistance at 101.85 marked by the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Buyers are now testing the 61.8% level at 102.58, with a push above that eyeing the underside of a previously broken rising trend line at 103.01. Alternatively, a reversal back below 101.85 eyes the 38.2% Fib at 101.11.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

More...

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Hovers on the Verge of Trend Change
• S&P 500 Recovers into Familiar Trading Range
• Crude Oil, Gold Prices Continue to Tread Water

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices looks to be attempting to set a double bottom at 10375, the October 22 close. Confirmation of the upward reversal pattern requires a breach of resistance is at 10455, marked by the top of a falling channel that has guided the benchmark currency downward since the beginning of the year. A daily close above this barrier initially targets horizontal support-turned-resistance at 10495.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recovered to challenge resistance in the 1883.80-88.60 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and the March 7 high. A break above that clears the way for a move into the 1897.40-99.10 region, bracketed by the 38.2% level and the April 4 top. Recent swing lows identify support in the 1850.10-61.90 zone.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating below resistance in the 1306.72-15.60 area, marked by the top of a descending Triangle chart formation and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 1330.18. The descending Triangle argues in favor of bearish continuation however (though confirmation is absent for now). Near-term support is at 1277.00, the Triangle bottom.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are retesting rising trend line support-turned-resistance set from mid-March. Initial support is at 101.14, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 38.2% level at 100.23. Alternatively, a move back above the trend line – now at 102.44 – aims for the May 14 high at 102.61.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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