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Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on Technical Analysis within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Talking Points USD/JPY closing in on key resistance EUR/USD pulls back from important long-term resistance USD/CAD retains positive tone Foreign ...

      
   
  1. #431
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    Price & Time: Big Test Coming Up For USD/JPY

    Talking Points

    • USD/JPY closing in on key resistance
    • EUR/USD pulls back from important long-term resistance
    • USD/CAD retains positive tone



    Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
    Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD





    • EUR/USD has come under modest pressure since failing last week near the 3x1 Gann angle line of the 2013 high at 1.3830
    • Our near-term trend bias is higher while above the 1.3655 2nd square root relationship of the 2013 high
    • The 2013 closing high near 1.3800 remains critical resistance and a daily close over this level is needed to confirm the start of a new move higher
    • The latter part of the week is a minor cycle turn window
    • A daily close below 1.3655 would turn us negative on the Euro


    EUR/USD Strategy: Square here.

    Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
    EUR/USD *1.3655 1.3680 1.3730 1.3765 *1.3800

    Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD





    • USD/CAD is in consolidation mode above the 50% retracement of the Jan/Feb range at 1.1065
    • Our near-term trend bias is positive in Funds while over 1.1010
    • Interim resistance is seen at the 1st square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.1120, but a move through 1.1190 is really required to signal that the broader advance has resumed
    • The second half of next week is a key cycle turn window
    • A close under 1.1010 would turn us negative on the exchange rate


    USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.1010.

    Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
    USD/CAD *1.1010 1.1060 1.1080 1.1120 *1.1190

    Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY



    We had a good call last month in USD/JPY as we were looking for a low during the first week of February. The market gave us that turn, but the move higher from 100.75 has been very unimpressive especially when taking into account that the S&P 500 has rallied almost 8% during the same period. Has the trade favored by virtually every investment manager at the start of the year lost its way? It would seem so, but bulls still have some hope. The next few days look fairly positive from a short-term cyclical perspective. We expect to see another test of the critical 102.75 level (2nd square root relationship of the YTD low) which has capped the rate for almost a month now. A clear break of this level will likely put USD/JPY back in favor and set the stage for a much more aggressive rally into the middle of the month. Failure to surpass 102.75 and/or weakness back under 101.35 would be extremely negative for the exchange rate.

    --- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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  2. #432
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    USDJPY Runs into a Wall; Look for a Dip

    • EURUSD support is now 1.3815
    • AUDUSD closing in on long term resistance
    • USDJPY could find minor top early next week


    EUR/USD
    Weekly




    -EURUSD has broken above the trendline that connects the 2008 and 2011 highs and traded to its highest level since October 2011. Former resistance is now support at 1.3713/30. The top side of the broken trendline reinforces this level as support.
    -1.4074 is a reaction level / target for next week. This is where the rally from the November low would consist of 2 equal legs. Channel resistance also rests up there. Looking farther out, 1.4300-1.4450 is probably the topping zone for the move that started at the July 2012 low. It’s worth noting that important tops have formed in April before (being early is as bad as being late).

    GBP/USD
    Weekly




    -GBPUSD found support a month ago from former resistance levels; specifically the October high and top side of the line that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs. The rally from the level signals a significant breakout. That doesn’t mean that the breakout can’t fail of course.
    -GBPUSD traded to the highest level since November 2009 but did form a weekly key reversal 2 weeks ago and a doji this week. The developments could be warnings that the breakout will fail.

    AUD/USD
    Weekly




    -The next major target in AUDUSD is .7937. This target is determined by the .8847-.9757 range (.8847 – (.9757-.8847). Interestingly, the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2001 low registers at .7927. ‘Chartwise’, the 2010 low is at .8067.
    -AUDUSD is nearing the .9166-.9267 resistance zone. The bottom of the zone intersects with trendline resistance (off of the April and October 2013 highs) next week.

    NZD/USD
    Weekly




    -NZDUSD spent much of the week above the line that extends off of the April and October 2013 highs but closed the week at the line. The development could indicate a false break.
    -A large rang key reversal unfolded on Friday. Still, weakness below .8242 is needed to suggest that the path is lower.

    USD/JPY
    Weekly




    -USDJPY tested the underside of the trendline that connects the lows from November 2012 and October 2013 (again). Friday’s high is also in line with the May 2013 high. January lows rest at 103.85. Friday’s reaction paints a picture of a market at risk of a pullback.
    -102.50 is now support. Failure to hold that level risks a drop into 101.65.
    -Longer term, there is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55.

    USD/CAD
    Weekly




    -Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.
    -From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.
    -The close above the line that extends off of the 2002 and 2009 highs as well as the close above corrective channel resistance add credence to the 3rd of a 3rd wave position.

    USD/CHF
    Weekly




    -USDCHF has broken to its lowest level since October 2011. A massive head and shoulders top is completed (again) after a false break in October, and neckline retest in January. There is no chart support until .8566 (October 2011 low) and the head and shoulders target is .8071.
    -Use .8930 as a pivot. In other words, price needs to exceed .8930 in order to negate downside bearish implications from the break.


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  3. #433
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    Price & Time: Cyclical Convergence in Gold Suggests Volatility Ahead

    Talking Points

    • USD/JPY touches highest level in over a month
    • GBP/USD nearing key support level
    • Key time period approaching for Gold


    Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
    Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY




    • USD/JPY traded at its highest level since late January on Friday before encountering stiff resistance at the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low near 103.75
    • Our near-term trend bias is positive in the exchange rate while above 101.35
    • The 103.75 level is an important near-term pivot that needs to be surpassed soon to pave the way for a more important push higher
    • A minor cycle turn window is seen today
    • A close under the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at 101.35 would turn us negative on the exchange rate


    USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 101.35.

    Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
    USD/JPY *101.35 102.35 103.30 103.40 *103.75

    Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD





    • GBP/USD failed on Friday at the 127% extension of the Jan/Feb decline near 1.6780
    • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Cable while over 1.6600
    • A daily close over 1.6755 is needed to signal a resumption of the broader uptrend
    • The next couple of days are a medium-term cycle turn window in the exchange rate
    • Only a daily close below the 38% retracement of the February range near 1.6600 would turn us negative on the Pound.


    GBP/USD Strategy: Like the long side while 1.6600 holds.

    Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
    GBP/USD *1.6600 1.6630 1.6660 1.6700 *1.6755

    Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD



    The next week or so is shaping up to be an interesting one for Gold. The middle of this week is an important cycle turn window related to the 2012 high in the metal while the first part of next week is another window related to the low from the first half of 2013. Given the proximity of these two potentially important cyclical relationships we are tempted to view the next week as one large window where a material change in trend is likely to occur. We slightly favor a top heading into this key time period given the clear prevailing trend in place since the end of last year. However, this is only an assumption and could quickly change should the correction from last week gather pace over the next few days. The 1300 level remains a key support area. We will write more on the metal as this develops.

    --- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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  4. #434
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    US Dollar Mired in Familiar Range, SPX 500 Aiming to Rebound

    Talking Points:

    • US Dollar Still Mired in a Range Above February Bottom
    • S&P 500 Chart Setup Hints at Rebound from Support Level
    • Crude Oil Prices Sinking to Support Above $97.00 Figure


    US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate above support at 10520, the February 17 low. Near-term resistance is at 10599, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that initially exposing the 50% level at 10629. Alternatively, a push below support on a daily closing basis eyes the 38.2% Fib expansion at 10492.




    S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Hammer candlestick below support at the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-February, hinting a bounce may be ahead. Initial resistance is at 1889.20, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that targeting the channel top at 1897.60. Alternatively, a break below the channel floor (now at 1864.40) aims for the 23.6% Fib retracement at 1853.00.




    GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 1371.70, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this boundary exposes the 50% level at 1385.46. Near-term support is at 1354.66, marked by the 23.6% Fib and a falling trend line set from April 2013. A reversal below that initially targets rising channel resistance-turned-support at 1339.59.




    CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – The formation of a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern preceded a turn lower, as expected. Sellers are now approaching support at 97.17, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 50% level at 94.69. Near-term resistance is in the 100.23-73 area, marked by the 23.6% Fib and the December 27 high.




    --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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  5. #435
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    Weekly Price & Time: Gold Trades at Multi-Month High

    Talking Points

    • EUR/USD threatening an important break, key resistance level is near
    • USD/JPY fails at important Gann level, bigger correction looming?
    • GOLD records 7-month high - where to next?


    Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

    Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD





    • EUR/USD recorded a new multi-year high this week. But so far has been unable to surpass key resistance at 1.3970
    • Our longer-term trend bias is positive while above 1.3640
    • The 50% retracement near 1.3970 is key resistance and needs to be convincingly overcome to signal the ‘all clear’ for a more important run higher
    • A cycle turn window is seen late next week


    Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Looking to buy on weakness.

    Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
    EUR/USD *1.3640 1.3830 1.3920 *1.3955/70 1.4000

    Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY





    • USD/JPY has come under aggressive downside pressure following last week’s failure at the 3rdsquare root relationshipof the year’s low at 103.75
    • Our broader bias is negative in the rate while below 104.40
    • The year’s low near 100.75 is critical support with a move below having very ominous implications for the exchange rate
    • A cycle turn window is seen next week
    • A weekly close back over 104.40 would turn us positive again on USD/JPY


    Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: We like tactical short positions in USD/JPY while below 104.40 on a weekly close basis.

    Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
    USD/JPY *101.35 102.35 103.20 103.75 *104.40

    Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD





    • XAU/USD touched its highest level in 7-months on Friday
    • Our broader trend bias remains positive in the metal while above 1348
    • The 1395 level is key resistance with traction above needed to trigger gurther gains
    • Early next week is an important cycle turn window for the metal
    • A daily close under 1348 would turn us negative on Gold


    Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like being long while over 1348

    Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
    XAU/USD 1320 *1348 1382 *1395 1424

    --- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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  6. #436
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    EURUSD Fails above Long Term Trendline as USDCAD Breaks Out

    • EURUSD 1.3800 a decent pivot
    • AUDUSD at critical juncture from long term trendline
    • USDCAD announces next bull leg

    EUR/USD
    Weekly




    -EURUSD failed to hold above the line that extends off of the 2008 and 2011 highs this week. The development could mark an important change in conditions. A reaction area rests at the February 2013 high of 1.3710 and a break below 1.3642 would make a stronger case for a larger topping process.
    -Trading wise, 1.3810/30 is resistance (held Friday) although 1.3868 could come into play down the road.

    GBP/USD
    Weekly




    -GBPUSD found support in February from former resistance levels; specifically the October high and top side of the line that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs. The rally from the level signals a significant breakout but the move has stalled near the November 2009 high.
    -A weekly key reversal the week that ended 2/21 and a doji the week that ended 3/7 were advance warnings of a top. The rate ends Friday near the line that extends off of the November and February lows. Failure to hold up here would further bearish developments and open up 1.6250-1.6300.

    AUD/USD
    Weekly



    -The next major target in AUDUSD is .7937. This target is determined by the .8847-.9757 range (.8847 – (.9757-.8847). Interestingly, the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2001 low registers at .7927. ‘Chartwise’, the 2010 low is at .8067.
    -AUDUSD is nearing the .9166-.9267 resistance zone but the market is already at trendline resistance. A break above the line makes a case for a run to .9386-.9405 (2009 high and 2011 low).

    NZD/USD
    Weekly



    -NZDUSD spent much of the week above the line that extends off of the 2011 and 2013 highs but closed the week close to unchanged. The development could indicate a false break and therefore a top.
    -Weakness below .8350 is needed to suggest that the larger trend has reversed.

    USD/JPY
    Weekly



    -USDJPY tested the underside of the trendline that connects the lows from November 2012 and October 2013 2 weeks ago. The top was also in line with the May 2013 high.
    -Near term, USDJPY is failing within the 102.50/85 zone. USDJPY rallies are corrective at multiple degrees of trend; from 100.75 and 101.20. The implication is bearish.
    -Longer term, there is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55.

    USD/CAD
    Weekly



    -Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.
    -From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.
    -The close above the line that extends off of the 2002 and 2009 highs as well as the close above corrective channel resistance add credence to the 3rd of a 3rd wave position.

    USD/CHF
    Weekly



    -USDCHF has broken to its lowest level since October 2011. A massive head and shoulders top is completed (again) after a false break in October, and neckline retest in January. There is no chart support until .8566 (October 2011 low) and the head and shoulders target is .8071.
    -Use .8930 as a pivot. In other words, price needs to exceed .8930 in order to negate downside bearish implications from the break.


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  7. #437
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    Price & Time: Beware the End of March?

    Talking Points

    • Important cyclical relationships converging later this week for USD, important low developing?
    • USD/JPY closing in on key resistance
    • GBP/USD rebounds from key Fibonacci level, bigger recovery underway?


    Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
    Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY





    • USD/JPY has moved modestly higher over the past few days after once again finding support near the 101.35 4th square root relationshipof the year’s high
    • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while above 101.35
    • The 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 102.75 is immediate resistance with a move above needed to re-instill upside momentum for a more important move higher
    • A cycle turn window is seen over the next day or two
    • Only aggressive weakness back under 101.35 would turn us negative on USD/JPY


    USD/JPY Strategy: We like being long against 101.35.

    Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
    USD/JPY *101.35 101.75 102.40 *102.75 103.35

    Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD





    • GBP/USD has come under steady pressure following last week’s break of the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.6560
    • Our near-term trend bias is now lower in Cable
    • Support was found earlier today at the 1.6460 161.8% extension of the late Feb/early March advance, this level needs to be broken to signal recent weakness has been more than just a minor correction
    • An important cycle turn window is seen later this week
    • A daily close back over 1.6690 would turn us positive on the Pound


    GBP/USD Strategy: We like selling into strength over the next few days against 1.6690.

    Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
    GBP/USD 1.6430 *1.6460 1.6495 1.6560 *1.6690

    Focus Chart of the Day: FXCM Dollar Index



    The latter part of this week has strong timing for several of the main currency pairs. As such, we will be keeping close tabs on the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index as it is an equal weight basket of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD and is a good way to monitor general USD strength. A daily chart shows the index has been in a general downtrend since July of last year. Is this about to change? Cyclical analysis suggests there is a strong possibility. Last week’s bounce off 10,500 in the index looks to be the first move higher. A re-test that holds or even slightly undercuts 10,500 heading into Thursday/Friday would complete the recipe for a more important bottom in the USD during this turn window. We suppose that aggressive strength over the next few days would raise the possibility of cyclical inversion (high instead of a low) heading into the end of the week, but this looks unlikely and we will cross that bridge when/if we get there. Aggressive weakness in the index under 10,500 after Friday would completely undermine the burgeoning positive cyclical view.

    --- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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  8. #438
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    Forex: US Dollar Progress Stymied by Resistance, SPX 500 Range-Bound

    Talking Points:

    • US Dollar Rejected Downward to Retest Wedge Top as Support
    • S&P 500 Still Locked in a Familiar Range above the 1800 Figure
    • Crude Oil Struggling with Upside Follow-Through, Gold Sinking


    US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back from resistance at 10590, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion to retest broken falling wedge resistance-turned-support at 10539. Breaking back below this barrier initially targets the March 19 low at 10495. Alternatively, a reversal back above 10590 exposes the 38.2% level at 10649.



    The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
    S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are in consolidation mode below support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-February (1887.70). Near-term support is 1853.00, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% level at 1831.00. Alternatively, a break above resistance exposes the March 7 high at 1888.60.



    GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to fall having reversed downward as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A break below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1319.01 has exposed the 38.2% level at 1273.88, with a further move below that eyeing the 50% Fib at 1237.40. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1319.01 aims for trend line support-turned-resistance is now at 1344.85.



    CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to build upward momentum after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A break above resistance at 99.57, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, exposes the 23.6% level at 100.83. Near-term support is at 97.53, the March 12 low.



    --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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  9. #439
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    Price & Time: Important Turn Setting Up in the Pound

    Talking Points

    • Price action over next few days will be crucial for the Pound
    • EUR/USD rebounds from key support level
    • AUD/USD trades at highest level in over 3-months


    Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
    Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD


    • EUR/USD is in consolidation mode above the 9th square root relationship of the 2013 low near 1.3765
    • Our near-term trend bias is lower in EUR/USD while below 1.3930
    • The 1.3765 level is an important near-term pivot with a move below needed to signal a continuation of the recent decline
    • A cycle turn window is seen around the second half of the week
    • Only aggressive strength back over 1.3930 on a daily close basis would turn us positive on the Euro


    EUR/USD Strategy: We like selling into strength over the next few days.

    Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
    EUR/USD 1.3730 *1.3765 1.3810 1.3880 *1.3930

    Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD




    • AUD/USD overcame the 61.8% projection of the Jan/Feb advance near .9150 to trade at its highest level since early December on Tuesday
    • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the Aussie while over .9060
    • The 5th square root relationship of the year’s low at .9160 is immediate resistance ahead of an important Fibonacci convergence just above .9200
    • A Gann cycle turn window is eyed later in the week
    • A daily close below .9060 would turn us negative on the Aussie


    AUD/USD Strategy: We like the long side while over .9060, but may look to trim heading into the latter part of the week.

    Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
    AUD/USD .9060 .9105 .9150 .9160 *.9210

    Focus Chart of the Day: GBP/USD



    GBP/USD fell to its lowest level in almost a month and a half yesterday before rebounding sharply from the 161.8% extension of the late February/early March advance near 1.6460. An important cycle turn window related to last year’s low should influence around the end of the week, but will it lead to a high or a low? The price action over the next few days is expected to shape the answer. A continuation of yesterday’s reversal into Friday would set up some sort of secondary top. This our favored scenario as it squares up best with the action we are seeing in some of the other USD pairs.

    A continuation of the recent decline to new lows into the end of the week, however, would flip the script on us and set up an important low.

    --- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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    Price & Time: Gold Leading the Way for Currencies?

    Talking Points

    • Persistent weakness in metal warns period of general USD strength nearing
    • USD/JPY volatility compression points to looming trend move
    • USD/CAD turns at key Fibonacci level


    Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
    Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY





    • USD/JPY continues to meander around the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s high at 102.35
    • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while over 101.35
    • The 1x1 Gann angle line of the year’s high near 102.50 is immediate resistance, but a move through the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 102.75 is needed to re-instill positive momentum
    • A minor cycle turn window is seen today
    • A move under 101.35 would turn us immediately negative on USD/JPY


    USD/JPY Strategy: We like the long side while over 101.35.

    Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
    USD/JPY *101.35 101.75 102.35 102.50 *102.75

    Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD




    • USD/CAD reversed last week from the 200% extension of the 2H12 range in the 1.1260 area
    • Our near-term trend remains higher in Funds while over the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.1065
    • Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1170, but a move through 1.1260 is really required to signal a resumption of the broader uptrend
    • A very minor cycle turn window is seen tomorrow
    • A daily close under 1.1065 would turn us negative on Funds


    USD/CAD Strategy: We like the long side while over 1.1065.

    Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
    USD/CAD *1.1065 1.1115 1.1140 1.1170 *1.1260

    Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD



    Gold has come under steady pressure since recording a high just shy of 1392 during a key cycle turn window (8.6 months from 1H13 low) last week. The ease at which the metal broke through the 2nd square root relationship of the YTD high at 1318 on Monday keeps focus lower with the 50% retracement of the December/March range at 1285 now at risk. With an important cycle turn window for USD expected later in the week we can help but wonder if the general weakness being exhibited in the metal is a leading indicator for a period of general dollar strength against the currencies in the weeks ahead? The price action over the next days should answer this question. As for Gold, the next important metal specific cycle turn window is seen around April 4-9. Only unexpected aggressive strength above 1360 would signal the uptrend has resumed ahead of schedule.

    --- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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