Technical Analysis

Talking Points

• EUR/USD testing major support zone
• USD/JPY on cusp of important break?
• Long-term turn window in Gold coming up

Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

• EUR/USD consolidated just above its four month low this past week
• Our broader bias is negative on the Euro while below 1.3755
• A daily close under 1.3520 is needed to confirm a resumption of the broader decline
• The latter half of the month is the next cycle turn window of importance
• A move through 1.3755 is needed to shift the broader trend bias to positive

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while under 1.3755.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
EUR/USD	1.3465	1.3520	1.3535	1.3675	1.3755

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

• USD/JPY came under fairly steady pressure this past week after failing at Gann resistance near 102.80
• Our broader bias is negative in the rate while below 104.40
• A close under 101.35 will signal a resumption of the broader decline
• The end of the month is the next turn window of significnance for the rate
• Only strength over 104.40 will turn us positve on USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: We like tactical short positions in USD/JPY while below 104.40 on a weekly close basis.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/JPY	100.75	101.35	102.00	102.80	104.40

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

• XAU/USD has moved steadily higher since finding support near the 1244 4th square root relationship of the year’s high
• Our broader trend bias is lower while below 1286
• The 1210/20 area looks like a key downside atteraction
• The 2nd part of June looks to be an important time period for the metal
• A daily close back over 1286 would turn us positive on the yellow metal

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Square.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
XAU/USD	1210/20	1240	1273	1286	1300

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points

• USD/JPY nearing key downside pivot
• Key cyclical turn window coming up in Gold
• EUR/USD probes key support zone

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY


USD/JPY has been under steady pressure since failing at the start of the month near key Gann resistance in the 102.75 area

• While below this level our near-term trend bias is lower
• The 101.35 remains a key downside pivot with a daily close below needed to set off a more meanginful decline
• Minor turn windows are seen Tuesday and Friday
• A move over 102.75 would turn us positive on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 102.75.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/JPY	*101.35	101.60	101.85	102.35	*102.75

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

• GOLD has moved steadily higher since finding support near the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high near 1244 at the beginning of the month
• Our near-term trend bias is negative in the metal while below 1286
• The 1244 level remains a key downside pivot with weakness below this level needed to set up another move lower in the metal
• An important cycle turn window is seen this week
• A daily close over 1286 would turn us positive on the metal

GOLD Strategy: Like the short side here against a daily close over 1286.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
GOLD	*1244	1275	1281	*1286	1300

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD



Square root relationships from important highs & lows are one of our preferred ways to identify potential inflection points in the currency market. For one reason or another 4th square relationships have a tendency to be especially important. Over the past week or so EUR/USD has found support right around the 4th square root relationship of the year-to-date high near 1.3520. Normally we would be looking for some kind of strong counter-trend move to develop off this level, but the cyclical outlook looks pretty clearly negative for another couple of weeks which should work against any material euro strength developing just yet. A daily close under 1.3520 later this week would confirm our negative cyclical bent and open the way for another leg lower in the exchange rate. A move over 1.3595 would make us doubt this negative cyclical view, but strength above 1.3675 is really needed to confirm a meaningful bottom in the euro.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points

• EUR/USD hold key Gann level
• USD/JPY nearing important break
• End of month important for Gold

Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

• EUR/USD remains in a sideways to higher range above the 4th square root relationship of the year’s low near 1.3520
• Our broader bias is negative on the Euro while below 1.3755
• A daily close under 1.3520 is needed to confirm a resumption of the broader decline
• The end of the month is the next cycle turn window of importance for the exchange rate
• A move through 1.3755 is needed to shift the broader trend bias to positive

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while under 1.3755.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
EUR/USD	1.3465	1.3520	1.3590	1.3675	1.3755

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

• USD/JPY is in consolidation mode above the 101.55 61.8% retracement of the May/June range
• Our broader bias is negative in the rate while below 102.80
• A close under 101.55 should signal a resumption of the broader decline
• The end of the month is the next turn window of significnance for the rate
• Only strength over 102.80 will turn us positve on USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: We like tactical short positions in USD/JPY while below 102.80.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/JPY	100.75	101.55	102.15	102.80	104.40

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

• XAU/USD broke above key Gann resistance at 1286 this week
• Our broader trend bias is now higher in the metal
• A resistance cluster at 1321 needd to be overcome to prompt the next push higher
• The end of the month looks to be the next turn window of importance
• A daily close under 1286 would turn us negative on Gold again

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like buying on weakness against 1286.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
XAU/USD	1286	1300	1321	1321	1338

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Pushed to Test Below Multi-Year Support Again
• S&P 500 Still Pushing Higher But Reversal Clues Emerging
• Crude Oil Trying to Resume Rally, Gold Stalls Above 1300

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are probing below multi-year trend support set from July 2011. This barrier (10434) is reinforced by a falling channel bottom at 10414. A daily close below that would suggest a major reversal is in progress and initially expose double bottom support at 10375.Resistance remains in the 10474-95 area, with a move above that clearing the way for another challenge of the May 28 high at 10531.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are inching to yet another record high above resistance at 1961.50 marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Confirmation of a break on a daily closing basis clears the way for a challenge of 1972.60, the intersection of a rising channel top from mid-April and the 50% level. Emerging negative RSI divergence warns of oncoming reversal however. A turn below the 23.6% Fib at 1947.80 targets the 14.6% expansion at 1939.30.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched sharply higher to test resistance at 1321.64, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier targets the 50% level at 1346.78. Alternatively, a turn back below the 1300/oz figure aims for the 1277.00-90 area, marked by April 1 low and the 23.6% Fib.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are moving higher anew after pulling back as expected.A daily close above resistanceat 107.32, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, targets the 123.6% level at 108.68.
Alternatively, a turn below support at 105.96, the 76.4% Fib, initially aims for the 61.8% level at 105.12.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Begins Cautious Recovery from Rising Trend Line
• S&P 500 Pullback May Continue After Chart Support Break
• Crude Oil, Gold Prices Remain Locked in Familiar Ranges

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to launch a recovery after testing multi-year rising trend support set from July 2011. This barrier (now at 10419) is reinforced by a falling channel bottom at 10404. Resistance continues to stand in the 10474-95 area, with a break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a challenge of the May 28 high at 10531. Alternatively, a turn below support would hint a major reversal is in progress and initially expose double bottom support at 10375, followed by the June 2012 high at 10323.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick coupled with negative RSI divergence. Sellers are aiming to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1942.70, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 1927.20. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib at 1952.20 initially targets the June 24 high at 1967.60.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are treading water after launching sharply higher last week to challenge resistance at 1321.64, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier targets the 50% level at 1346.78. Alternatively, a turn back below the 1300/oz figure aims for the 1277.00-90 area, marked by April 1 low and the 23.6% Fib.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain in consolidation mode below resistance at 107.19, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion.A daily close above this barrier initially targets the 38.2% level at 108.49. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib retracementat 105.54 clears the way for a test of the 104.24-73 area, marked by a formerly broken triple top and the 38.2% threshold.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar on the Verge of Major Breakdown Again
• S&P 500 Digesting After Recoiling from Resistance
• Gold, Crude Oil Locked in Familiar Trading Ranges

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain under pressure as prices test below multi-year rising trend support set from July 2011. A daily close below this barrier (now at 10421) exposes a falling channel bottom at 10398, followed by double bottom support at 10375.Channel top resistance is at 10457, with a move above that exposing the 10474-95 cluster. The next topside barrier after that stands at 10531, May 28 high.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick coupled with negative RSI divergence. Sellers are testing the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1944.50, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 1930.20. Alternatively, a reversal above the June 24 high at 1967.60 aims for a rising channel top at 1981.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are treading water after launching sharply higher last week to challenge resistance at 1321.64, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier targets the 50% level at 1346.78. Alternatively, a turn back below the 1300/oz figure aims for the 1277.00-90 area, marked by April 1 low and the 23.6% Fib.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain in consolidation mode below resistance at 107.19, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion.A daily close above this barrier initially targets the 38.2% level at 108.49. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib retracementat 105.54 clears the way for a test of the 104.24-73 area, marked by a formerly broken triple top and the 38.2% threshold.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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• EURUSD and USDCHF divergence
• GBPUSD momentum considerations
• USDJPY tests important support

EUR/USD
Weekly



-“Long term, a failed breakout and top would keep with the pattern of 3 year cycle tops. 1.3750 is an important reference point (year open).”
-“EURUSD resolved a triangle with a terminal thrust and reversal on the June ECB meeting. Several developments suggest that EURUSD is headed higher for at least several weeks. The reversal occurred from just above the 2014 low and near the 52 week average (which exhibits a positive slope but momentum has been trending down since August)…The implication from volume is that this low isn’t as strong as the November and July lows (the doing of smaller traders…think volume / transactions). There are 3 points to watch for resistance moving forward…1.3750/60, 1.3800, and 1.3840.”
-EURUSD has headed higher but the first cited resistance (1.3750) has yet to be reached. In fact, EURUSD remains below the post ECB high. 1.3670/85 is a level that should inspire a reaction (selling). How the market reacts at that level will help in assessing the next move.

GBP/USD
Weekly



-GBPUSD recently traded at its best level since October 2008. The level is also home to the 2005 low. The next big confluence is from the 1998 high and 50% retracement of the decline from the 2007 high at 1.7330/45.
-The momentum profile at multiple degrees of trend warns that the market may not make it to 1.7330/45 though. Daily RSI is divergent with the new price high (compare this June high with the May high) and RSI at the most recent peak is below 70. Weekly RSI also exhibits slight divergence and the indicator is still below 70.

AUD/USD
Weekly



-The combination of the .9400 figure and weekly RSI failing near 60 indicates a lot of overhead to punch through. Since the 2011 top, each RSI failure near 60 has led to a top or topping process (range for several weeks then a breakdown...that may be the case now).

NZD/USD
Monthly



-“Don’t forget about the line that extends off of the 1996 and 2007 highs. That line crosses through the 2008, 2011, and highs as well. In 2011 (record free float high), the rate surged through the line in late July before topping on August 1st.” NZDUSD sold off for 5 weeks, found low near the 50% retracement of the year’s range and has surged back to this seemingly magnetic line.
-Market conditions (volatility) is much different than it was in 2011 but the record free float high did occur in ‘blow-off’ fashion throughout July (the high was August 1st). If history were to rhyme, then know that the rally from the 2000 low would consist of 2 equal waves at .9203. Below .8650 probably means the rate topped for at least .8500.

USD/JPY
Weekly



-“USDJPY has bounced from the line that extends off of the February and 3/14 lows. The rally from the February low channels in a corrective manner and makes 104.12 important from a bigger picture bearish perspective.”
-“There is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55. Of course, the path to get to that level is far from clear.” USDJPY is testing support from 101.35. 101.16 is also a reaction level. A larger breakdown is possible as long as price is below 102.80.

USD/CAD
Weekly



-USDCAD has fallen apart which ironically means it is probably going to find some sort of low soon. The rate is nearing important price levels.
-The 2011 high at 1.0657 and current year open at 1.0634 are possible supports. The line that extends off of the 2012 and September 2013 lows is at about 1.0607 next week. This level is in line with the July 2013 high at 1.0608.

USD/CHF
Weekly



-“USDCHF found top this week from just above the February 2013 low at .9020. The reversal probably caps USDCHF for at least a few weeks. Supports are seen at .8860 and .8800. In summary, the rate is probably capped for a few weeks before another rally attempt.”
-Near term developments warn of a turn towards USD strength, probably next week. USDCHF has slipped to a new low for June yet EURUSD is below its June high of 1.3676. These subtle divergences have pinpointed several important turns recently including the May turn when EURUSD exceeded its March high yet USDCHF stayed above its March low.


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Perched at Three-Year Uptrend Support
• S&P 500 in Consolidation Mode Below 2000 Level
• Crude Oil Drifting Lower, Gold Still Range-Bound

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain in a precarious position as prices continue to hover above multi-year rising trend support set from July 2011. This barrier (now at 10401) is reinforced by a falling Wedge formation bottom. A daily close below that would suggest a major reversal is in progress and initially expose double bottom support at 10375, followed by the June 2012 high at 10323.Wedge resistance is at 10440, with a move above that exposing the 10474-95 cluster. The next topside barrier after that stands at 10531, May 28 high.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick coupled with negative RSI divergence. Sellers are testing the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1944.50, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 1930.20. Alternatively, a reversal above the June 24 high at 1967.60 aims for a rising channel top at 1982.70.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are treading water after launching sharply higher last week to challenge resistance at 1321.64, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier targets the 50% level at 1346.78. Alternatively, a turn back below the 1300/oz figure aims for the 1277.00-90 area, marked by April 1 low and the 23.6% Fib.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain in consolidation mode below resistance at 107.19, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion.A daily close above this barrier initially targets the 38.2% level at 108.49. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib retracementat 105.54 clears the way for a test of the 104.24-73 area, marked by a formerly broken triple top, the 38.2% threshold and a rising trend line set from early May.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Hints at Key Reversal with Support Break
• S&P 500 Remains Locked in Familiar Trading Range
• Gold Breaks Resistance But Follow-Through Suspect

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may have initiated a substantial downward reversal after prices broke below a trend guiding the uptrend since July 2011. Sellers are now testing the 10375-79 area, marked by a double bottom and the floor of a falling channel set from early June. A daily close below this barrier would initially expose the June 2012 high at 10323. The trend line – now at 10404 – has been recast as near-term resistance. A move back above that clears the way for a test of the channel top at 10434.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick coupled with negative RSI divergence, but the move lower was swiftly cut short at support marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement (1944.50). Positioning has now taken on a consolidative tone, but bearish overtones remain. A daily close below support initially targets the 23.6% level at 1930.20. Alternatively, a reversal above the June 24 high at 1967.60 aims for a rising channel top at 1984.80.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke higher after oscillating in a narrow range for over a week, taking out resistance at 1321.64 marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Buyers now aim to challenge the 50% level at 1346.78, with a further push above that eyeing the 61.8% Fib at 1371.93. Negative RSI divergence warns upside momentum may be short-lived however. A turn back below 1321.64 exposes the 1300/oz figure, followed by the 1277.00-90 zone bracketed by the April 1 low and the 23.6% expansion.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain in consolidation mode below resistance at 106.74, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion.A daily close above this barrier initially targets the 38.2% level at 108.04. Alternatively, a reversal below support in the 104.84-105.19 area – marked by a rising trend line set from early May and the March 3 high – exposes the 38.2% Fib retracement at 104.24.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points

• EUR/USD about to head higher again?
• USD/JPY reverses again off key Gann level
• Gold overcomes important resistance area

Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

• EUR/USD touched its highest level in over a month this week before finding resistance near the 38% retracement of the May to June decline at 1.3690
• Our broader bias is now positive on the euro
• A daily close over 1.3690 is needed to set up a new leg higher in the exchange rate
• A turn window is eyed around the middle of the week
• A move under 1.3490 is needed to turn our outlook negative

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.3490.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
EUR/USD	1.3430	1.3490	1.3585	1.3690	1.3750

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

• USD/JPY rebounded sharply again from the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high near 101.35
• Our broader bias is negative in the rate while below 102.80
• A close under 101.35 is needed to signal a resumption of the broader decline
• The next turn winodow of importance is eyed around the middle of the month
• Only strength over 102.80 will turn us positve on USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Like tactical short positions in USD/JPY while below 102.80, though concerned the low this week is the start of a bigger move higher.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/JPY	100.75	101.35	102.05	102.80	104.40

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

• XAU/USD broke through a key Gann confluence in the 1321 area to record it highest level in over three months
• Our broader trend bias remains higher in the metal
• The 61.8% retracement of the March to June decline at 1334 is resistance ahead of the next major upside attraction near 1348
• A minor turn window is eyed around the middle of the week
• Weakness under 1286 would turn us negative on Gold again

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like buying on weakness against 1286.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
XAU/USD	1286	1305	1318	1334	1348

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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