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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on October 25, 2024

The excessive overbought condition of the dollar has indeed impacted the market, as the single European currency managed to show some growth despite the preliminary estimates of business activity indexes. The composite business activity index in the Eurozone rose from 49.6 to 49.7 points, although the forecast was for 50.1 points. This outcome was due to the services activity index, which fell from 51.4 to 51.2 points, whereas an increase to 51.7 points was expected. However, some support came from the manufacturing activity index, which increased from 45.0 to 45.9 points, exceeding the anticipated rise to 45.2 points. More notable is that the single currency demonstrated slight but consistent growth, even in the face of similar data from the United States, which exceeded forecasts. Specifically, the manufacturing activity index in the U.S. rose from 47.3 to 47.8 points instead of the expected increase of 47.6 points. The services activity index, expected to decline from 55.2 to 55.0 points, actually grew to 55.3 points. As a result, the composite activity index climbed from 54.0 to 54.3 points despite predictions that it would remain unchanged. Thus, market behavior indicates that the potential for dollar growth is exhausted, at least for now. The dollar's overbought condition has remained, so expecting a sustained rise in the euro seems reasonable.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GOLD – Technical Analysis

Last week, gold rose to challenge the psychological level of 2750.00. After stalling at this resistance, it continued to test this level throughout the week, setting a new all-time high at 2757.96. If the upward momentum continues, gold could reach new heights. All target levels indicated by the Ichimoku indicator have already been achieved, so the focus can now shift to psychological "round" levels, which historically have proven significant. The following levels are 2800.00, 2850.00, 2900.00, and so on. In a downward correction, the daily Ichimoku cross will receive initial support. On Monday, these support levels are at 2708.10 (Tenkan) and 2680.45 (Kijun). If bearish players actively push lower and quickly break the daily golden cross, their attention will likely shift to weekly Ichimoku support levels. The nearest level from the weekly cross is the short-term trend at 2614.68. If the downward correction is prolonged, the weekly levels will rise closer to the daily cross, providing additional support for bullish interests.

H4 – H1 In lower time frames, the uncertainty seen in higher time frames has led to a lack of clear, decisive movement. However, the advantage still leans towards bullish players. Currently, gold is trading above the weekly long-term trend at 2731.80. Any further rise will need to overcome the resistance of the classic Pivot Points, which provide good intraday guidance. Losing support from the weekly long-term trend at 2731.80 would shift the balance of power, drawing market attention to bearish targets at the support levels of the classic Pivot Points. It's essential to note that the values of these Pivot Points will update upon market opening.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 29.10.2024

Recently, the euro has fluctuated upward, often without any specific reason. It's clearly largely oscillating around the 1.08 mark, with movements merely representing minor deviations from this level. Given that this week is sparse on macroeconomic data, this situation will likely continue until Friday. Additionally, with the U.S. presidential elections set for next Tuesday, the uncertainty intensifies, as the outcome remains highly unpredictable and the media portray the two candidates as complete opposites. In other words, the atmosphere is tense, and few are willing to take risks in such a setting. Therefore, this stagnation may well extend into the middle of next week.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 30.10.2024

The euro has been treading water for an entire week. However, today, it might be able to strengthen its position against the dollar and potentially reduce its current oversold state. This potential boost could come from the preliminary Eurozone GDP data for Q3, precisely the initial estimate, which tends to have the most impact. According to forecasts, Eurozone economic growth is expected to accelerate from 0.6% to 1.0%. This is a fairly positive outcome, given the significant concerns about the prospects of the European economy. As a result, the euro could gain a considerable boost in optimism and strengthen its position noticeably. Moreover, according to forecasts, similar data from the United States is expected to show stable growth rates. Although growth rates in Europe are lower, the mere improvement in dynamics is a positive factor.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD Technical Analysis for October 31

EUR/USD

Higher Time Frames Yesterday, the bulls climbed above the daily short-term trend (1.0817) but couldn't break through the weekly resistances (1.0844 – 1.0863 – 1.0876) on the first attempt, leaving this task still relevant. Today marks the end of the month. October has been dominated by bearish sentiment, and the focus now is on the length of the lower shadow of the monthly candle and whether the bears can close the month as optimistically as possible.

H4 – H1 In the lower time frames, the bulls currently hold the advantage. They may soon leave the H4 cloud and form an upward target for breaking through it. As a result, additional targets in the form of classic Pivot levels (1.0884 – 1.0909 – 1.0947) will be added to the H4 targets during the day. If the bears gain control, the most crucial target for corrective decline would be the weekly long-term trend (1.0819). A breakthrough and reversal of this trend could shift the current balance of power. The following downside targets during the day will be the support levels of classic Pivots levels (1.0783 – 1.0758). GBP/USD

H4 – H1 On the lower time frames, the market has recently been hovering around the key levels of 1.2980 – 1.2975 (central Pivot point of the day + weekly long-term trend), which are currently horizontal, supporting uncertainty. Breaking out of this zone and strengthening the direction of either side will lead to a decisive movement. For the bulls, targets would be the classic Pivot resistance levels (1.3023 – 1.3086 – 1.3129), while for the bears, they would be the support levels (1.2917 – 1.2874 – 1.2811).

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GOLD – Technical Analysis

On Friday, the weekly result was marked by an uncertainty candle with an extended upper shadow. It is possible that the bears found a good spot for a corrective decline, as the bulls failed to reach 2800.00 and closed October below the psychological level of 2750.00, which had been actively tested throughout the second half of the month. It should be noted that the bears secured support from the daily short-term trend (2748.92), which is now defending their interests. If a decline develops, the primary task for the bears at this section of the chart will be to test, break, and eliminate the daily golden cross, which currently can be marked at levels 2718.28 – 2696.24 – 2674.21. For the bulls, the nearest prospects maintain their relevance and position. New bullish opportunities may arise only after the 2750.00 level is broken and the resistance zone 2800.00 is tested and overcome.

H4 – H1 On the lower time frames, the pair tested the weekly long-term trend (2756.36) from below on Friday, with the bears managing to defend their advantage and remain below the trend. Soon, it will be necessary for the bears to break through the H4 cloud, exit, and secure a position in the bearish zone relative to the cloud. If the cloud break is realized, additional downward targets on the lower timeframes, including the supports of the classic Pivot levels, will be added with the newly formed target for the H4 cloud breakout. If the bulls use the cloud's support and push off from it, simultaneously gaining the weekly long-term trend, then the intraday market focus will shift to the resistances of the classic Pivot levels. On the higher time frames, bulls will again aim to conquer 2750.00 and reach 2800.00. Updated classic Pivot level values for guidance will appear when trading opens at the start of the new workweek.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD on November 5 – Technical Analysis

Higher Time Frames Yesterday, the monthly short-term trend resistance (1.0909) was tested. Despite the significant upward gap at the opening and the bulls' persistence, the outcome is recorded as a long upper shadow on the daily candle. It may take considerable effort from the bulls to overcome this monthly resistance (1.0909) and push into the bullish zone relative to the bearish monthly Ichimoku cloud (1.0943). The cluster of weekly levels (1.0876, 1.0863, 1.0844) and the daily short-term trend (1.0842) maintain a gravitational pull on the current development, providing some support for the bulls. For bears to assert their stance, they must break free from this zone and move significantly lower.

H4 – H1 The pair is in a corrective zone on the lower time frames, staying above the weekly long-term trend (1.0858), giving bulls the main advantage. Today's upward targets within the day are the classic Pivot resistance levels (1.0908, 1.0939, 1.0963) and the target for breaking through the H4 cloud (1.0921, 1.0939). Breaking and reversing the trend (1.0858) would create conditions to shift the current balance of power. The downward targets within the day are the classic Pivot support levels (1.0853, 1.0829, 1.0798).


GBP/USD


Higher Time Frames The upward gap pushed the pair into the influence of two key levels. The bulls found support from the daily short-term trend (1.2942), preventing the gap from closing, while the bears relied on the weekly medium-term trend resistance (1.2971), which halted the bulls from achieving higher targets. Today's development still depends on these two levels; whoever breaks through the opposing level will likely dictate the direction.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD: What Does Trump's Victory Mean for the Australian Dollar?

Today, the AUD/USD pair dropped to a multi-month low amid a rally in the US dollar triggered by Trump's victory.

The sharp intraday decline of over 130 points was driven by strong demand for the US dollar. The USD index surged to a four-month high after exit polls from the US presidential election indicated that Republican candidate Donald Trump was leading the race. Additionally, Republicans are expected to secure a majority in the House of Representatives. In addition to these factors, Trump's presidency raises concerns about the introduction of new tariffs and a potential trade war with China, further pressuring the Australian dollar. Concerns about deficit spending and expectations of less aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts are driving US Treasury yields higher. This has strengthened the US dollar and added further pressure on the AUD/USD pair. However, the risk-on sentiment, as evidenced by the sharp rise in US stock futures, has led to some profit-taking on the US dollar. Furthermore, the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and signs that China's large-scale stimulus measures are boosting business activity are limiting losses for the Australian dollar, prompting intraday short-covering in the AUD/USD pair. Still, there is no certainty that current spot prices can build momentum or that the attempted recovery will be seen as more than a selling opportunity, given the prevailing bullish sentiment for the US dollar. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the AUD/USD pair has formed a short-term bottom. This cautious outlook is supported by daily chart oscillators, which remain in negative territory, reinforcing the bearish forecast for now.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 7, 2024

Donald Trump achieved such a decisive victory that this time, the election avoided the scandals that marred the vote four years ago. Additionally, Republicans secured a majority in the Senate. While vote counting for the House of Representatives continues, they are also clearly leading there. It seems that the Republican Party will gain control of the White House and both chambers of Congress. This translates to higher tariffs, increased U.S. protectionism, and more aggressive demands for higher defense spending for Europe. Given the fragile state of the eurozone economy, these developments could exacerbate its problems. Moreover, the situation worsened because of the collapse of the ruling coalition in Germany, prompting Olaf Scholz to discuss early elections. Currently, opposition parties are highly skeptical of the European Union, and NATO may not achieve a majority in the Bundestag, but they are likely to strengthen their positions. The future government will have to take their stance into account. All these factors contribute to a lack of optimism for the euro, which will likely remain under pressure. For now, political factors are expected to outweigh economic ones.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 8, 2024

It can be confidently stated that the Federal Reserve's decision to lower its refinancing rate from 5.00% to 4.75% contributed to the weakening of the U.S. dollar. However, this was likely just a trigger for a rebound following the dollar's significant surge, driven by the results of the U.S. elections. The market was already anticipating such a decision from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). What carries more weight is the subsequent press conference, during which Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of maintaining interest rates at their current level in December. The prevailing expectation had been that rates would be reduced again this year, bringing them down to 4.50%. However, Powell's comments suggest that this outlook could change depending on labor market dynamics. While there are concerns about the labor market, the Fed may still need to continue easing its monetary policy. Nevertheless, the mere possibility of a pause in rate cuts was not previously considered. Thus, the outcomes of yesterday's meeting have added another factor supporting the dollar's long-term strength. In other words, yesterday's dollar's weakness should be considered a temporary rebound.

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