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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. May 13th. Bears and bulls have found a balance


The EUR/USD pair traded strictly between the levels of 1.0764 and 1.0785 on Friday. Trader activity was nonexistent, with horizontal movement observed all day. The zone 1.0764–1.0785 is part of the zone 1.0764–1.0806. Bulls will find it very difficult to overcome these levels. Therefore, I expect further growth of the European currency only after closing above 1.0806. The upward trend channel continues to characterize traders' sentiment as "bullish." After closing below this channel, I expect a significant decline in the euro.



The wave situation remains unchanged. The last downward wave failed to approach the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave had already broken the peak of the previous wave. Thus, a "bullish" trend has formed, but its prospects raise doubts for me. In the last 2-3 weeks, the news background has supported bull traders, but will it continue to support them further? This is a big question, as the European Union's economy is going through challenging times, and the ECB is ready to start easing monetary policy earlier than the Fed, which already has a much lower interest rate. The news background on Friday was very weak. There was no news in Europe, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was released in America. This indicator in May was only 67.4 points against expectations of 76-78 points. Thus, this report also did not show a high value, and the dollar was fortunate that its decline did not continue. Despite weak statistics from the US recently, I still expect a new downward trend for EUR/USD. The trend has been ongoing for four weeks and cannot be called strong. The weakening of the American currency is temporary, and traders will soon remember the ECB's rate cut in June. They will also remember that inflation in the US will only allow the Fed to count on easing monetary policy later.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the upper line of the "wedge." A new rebound from this line will again favor the US dollar and a new downward process towards the corrective level of 23.6%-1.0644. Consolidation above the "wedge" will increase the probability of continued growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 50.0%-1.0862 and change the "bearish" trend to "bullish." There are no imminent divergences observed today. Commitments of Traders (COT) report: During the last reporting week, speculators opened 3409 long contracts and closed 7958 short contracts. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group turned "bearish" a couple of weeks ago, but now there is a balance between bulls and bears. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 170 thousand, while short contracts amount to 166 thousand. However, the situation will continue to change in favor of bears. In the second column, the number of short positions has increased from 140 thousand to 166 thousand over the last three months. Long positions decreased from 202 thousand to 170 thousand during the same period. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong news background to resume the "bullish" trend. A series of poor reports from the US have supported the euro, but in the long run, more is needed.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on May 20

The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument. The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument. The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of AUD/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Wednesday May 22, 2024.


On the 4 hour chart, Silver commodity asset is appear, although the price is moving above WMA 20 which indicates that there are still a lot of buyers of this commodity asset. But if we pay attention, the level of 32,444 failed to be broken a few times which shows that in the near future Silver has the potential to corrected downwards where level 31,033 has the potential to be tests. If it managed to break, then Silver willgo to level 30,320 as the main target and if the momentum and volatility are supportive then level 29,615 will be the next target, but if on its way to these target levels it suddenly strengthens again and breaks above level 32,444 then all the weakening correction scenarios that have been described will become invalid and cancel itself.




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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD pair on May 23, 2024

EUR/USD Yesterday, the markets showed reduced risk appetite – the S&P 500 stock index fell by 0.27%, and the dollar index rose by 0.29%. Now, the euro has three short-term development options:

The growth continues to the target level of 1.0905, forming a divergence marked by a dashed line on the oscillator chart. Growth will be limited to the upper boundary of the new descending price channel at the 1.0878 mark solely to confirm its validity and then reverse downward from there. Decline to the nearest inner line of the new channel at the 1.0774 mark to confirm the validity and accuracy of this line and the entire channel. Additionally, it should be noted that the MACD line is approaching the 1.0774 mark. Therefore, the price must consolidate below this level for the euro to reverse into a downtrend. Until then, the price can behave in various ways – forming a flag, pennant, double top, etc. Nevertheless, there is a 55% probability that the correction peaked on May 16.

On the four-hour scale, the price has settled below the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is deepening into the territory of a downtrend. The MACD line itself is starting to turn downward. The trend is descending, confirming the likelihood of an already occurred reversal. However, this situation does not prevent the price from complicating the sideways movement


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on May 24


Higher Timeframes The bears are trying to extend the downward movement. Since they encountered a wide support area, they started testing it. In order to strengthen the bearish bias under current conditions, sellers need to overcome 1.0817 - 1.0808 - 1.0795 - 1.0785 and go beyond the daily and weekly Ichimoku clouds, consolidating in the bearish zone relative to the clouds. The weekly medium-term trend that was left behind (1.0871) currently serves as resistance and the nearest target in case the bulls recover their positions.


H4 – H1 On the lower timeframes, the weekly long-term trend managed to accomplish its task yesterday, so the bears still have the advantage. The bearish bias can be improved further through testing and overcoming supports of classic Pivot levels (1.0793 - 1.0770 - 1.0736). Today's key levels can be found at 1.0827 - 1.0850 (central Pivot level + weekly long-term trend). A breakout and consolidation above these marks will affect the current balance of power, so the bulls can still gain the upperhand. In this case, the next bullish targets will be 1.0884 - 1.0907 (resistance of classic Pivot levels).


H4 – H1 On the lower timeframes, the bears have now moved below and consolidated under key levels. As a result, the bears have the advantage. To build on the bearish sentiment, a decline must be realized by testing and breaking through the supports of the classical Pivot levels, which are located at 1.2670 – 1.2647 – 1.2609. It is very easy to lose the current advantage since the market hasn't moved far from the key levels. Rising and consolidating above the key levels of 1.2708-06 (central Pivot level + weekly long-term trend) will push the balance of power back to the bulls' side, and it is possible to strengthen positions by breaching the resistances of the classical Pivot levels (1.2731 – 1.2769 – 1.2792). ***




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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on May 27, 2024


GBP/USD On Friday, the British pound managed to hit the target resistance level of 1.2745 for the third time in three sessions. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator continues its steady decline, so considering today's holiday in the UK, an upward breakout is unlikely.

But if there is a noticeable pullback, it will be easier for speculators to continue it on Tuesday. The nearest target for the move is the MACD indicator line around the 1.2635 mark. On the 4-hour chart, the price is making the first steps towards consolidating below the 1.2745 level.

The Marlin oscillator has reached the boundary of the uptrend territory, and now we are waiting for an external signal for a breakout or reversal. The probability of a reversal is higher. If the price consolidates below the MACD line on H4 (1.2713), it will allow the pair to confidently form a sideways movement for 1-2 days, after which the price could fall to 1.2635 and below to the range of 1.2574/96.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on May 28, 2024

EUR/USD The euro closed Monday up by 12 pips. This morning, the single currency continued to rise, which shows that it intends to reach the upper boundary of the price channel (1.0873). Until the price consolidates above this level, the price will continue to fluctuate within the sideways range before (as we expect) it falls towards a strong support level at 1.0796. The Marlin oscillator barely reacted to yesterday's rise.

Today, the U.S. Treasury is auctioning bills and bonds totaling $344 billion, with an auction for 2-year and 7-year notes totaling $72 billion scheduled for tomorrow. Typically, such significant volumes are sold with a strong (stable) dollar to maintain investor interest. In turn, investors buy dollars to purchase bonds. The second estimate of GDP numbers for Q1 will be released on Thursday. Against this backdrop, the euro has little room for gro

On the 4-hour chart, the euro is testing the MACD indicator line, which has closely approached the target level of 1.0873. The Marlin oscillator is optimistic, but we can only see signs of growth when the price consolidates above 1.0873. A break below yesterday's low at 1.0841 will serve as a signal that the price will fall. However, we also consider the possibility that the price could move sideways until the end of the week.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on May 29

Higher timeframes The bulls faced yet another setback. Yesterday, they failed to update the pair's high (1.0895) and move beyond the weekly resistances (1.0859 - 1.0871). As a result, EUR/USD bounced downwards. To confirm and work on this today, it is necessary to overcome the influence of the main levels of the daily cross at 1.0848 - 1.0840 (Tenkan + Kijun). After this, the next challenge will be interacting with a solid support area, which includes several strong levels from higher timeframes within a narrow range (1.0817 - 1.0792).

H4 – H1 On the lower timeframes, the bearish correction has led to a test of the weekly long-term trend (1.0845). Breaking through this level could change the current balance of power. The next bearish targets after the intraday break will be the classic Pivot levels (1.0844 - 1.0832 - 1.0809). In case of a rebound from the weekly long-term trend, the focus will shift to recovering lost positions, bringing the market's focus to the resistance levels of the classic Pivot points. Currently, these resistances are located at 1.0867 - 1.0879 - 1.0902 - 1.0914.

H4 – H1 A correction is currently developing on the lower timeframes. The market is approaching a key level – the weekly long-term trend at 1.2738, which determines the current balance of power. Its outcome could set the course for further development. A rebound would shift the focus to the resistance levels of the classic Pivot points, which are located at 1.2770, 1.2786, 1.2816, and 1.2832. Conversely, a breakthrough would place the focus on the support levels of the classic Pivot points at 1.2724 and 1.2694.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on May 30


The price test of 1.0836 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, which confirmed the entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the EUR/USD pair dropped more than 30 pips. Yesterday, Germany's data on consumer confidence and the Consumer Price Index exerted pressure on the euro, and comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the prospects of U.S. inflation only increased pressure on risk assets, pushing EUR/USD even lower. Today, reports on Spain's CPI and the Eurozone's unemployment rate will be published. Weak results will increase pressure on the euro, which will help the corrective movement at the end of the month. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.

Buy signals Scenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0806 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0841. At the level of 1.0841, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today only after very good Eurozone data, as there will be no other reasons to buy. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it. Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0787 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0806 and 1.0841. Sell signals Scenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0787 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0755, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase in case the price fails to consolidate near the daily high and if Spain and the Eurozone release weak data. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it. Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0806 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.0787 and 1.0755.

What's on the chart: The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument. The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument. The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on May 31

Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPY The price test of 156.95 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to rise from the zero mark, which confirmed the entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the USD/JPY pair was up by only 10 pips before it was under pressure again. The dollar fell due to US data. Although traders took advantage of this moment, it's too early to say that the bulls are in control of the market. Today's figures for the Tokyo Consumer Price Index and Japan's unemployment rate matched economists' forecasts, while the retail sales report exceeded economists' expectations. This could theoretically support the yen during the European session. However, the lower the dollar falls, the more attractive it is for the bulls, so be cautious with selling the pair at current levels. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.

Buy signals Scenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point at 157.03 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 157.70 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 157.70, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today in continuation of the trend. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it. Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 156.60 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 157.03 and 157.70. Sell signals Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 156.60 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 156.01, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return in case the price fails to settle near the day's high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it. Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 157.03 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 156.60 and 156.01.

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