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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 22, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro fell by 126 points on Monday and by the end of the day it practically won back the entire fall. The fall was bought out in large volumes by the largest players in order to avoid an uncontrolled collapse. All this happened on the news about the readiness of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to back down in the fishing dispute with the EU, setting the quota at 66% of the current volume.



The daily chart shows that the reversal divergence of the price and the oscillator remains. Marlin continued to move down, trying to get out of the growth zone. The downside target at 1.2040 that was formed by the price channel line is still present. However, there is a possibility of forming a double divergence. At the same time, the price will try to rush to the target level of 1.2330 and only then will it reverse into a medium-term decline.



The four-hour chart shows that the price fell below the MACD line, then went back above it, and is currently preparing to move below it. Also, the Marlin oscillator, after the signal line went into the negative area, returned to the growth area and intends to fall again. The condition for accomplishing this move is for the price to fall below the MACD line, under 1.2205. If this condition is not met, then the double divergence option is implemented.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 23, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the single European currency fell by 80 pips. Trading volumes were above average, which can already indicate direct sales of the euro. The option with double divergence, which we allowed yesterday, is canceled, since the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has already come close to the border with a negative trend and the transition beyond it will give a new impetus to the decline. The target of the decline is determined by the range 1.1985-1.2040, it is determined by the indicator line of the MACD and the embedded line of the price channel of the weekly timeframe. Breaking the range opens the target of 1.1885 (October 21 high).



On the four-hour scale, the price is fixed under the lines of the balance indicator (red) and MACD (blue) indicator, the Marlin oscillator is declining. We are waiting for the development of a downward trend in the target area.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 24, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro gained 23 points on Wednesday, correcting Tuesday's fall. Trading volumes were above average, which may indicate a rapid recovery of long positions. Such a high speculative interest during the Christmas period has not been observed for a very long time. It is a holiday today in Germany and Switzerland, meanwhile, there is a shorter working day in a number of other European countries and in the US. The market is thin, and due to the geopolitical situation, there are good conditions for a strong speculative breakthrough. Almost any reason can be used. It is quite possible to try and make the euro fall towards the target range of 1.1985-1.2042. Of course, there may not be such an attack, but this year, the situation itself has been pushing market players to organize fireworks for the market.



The daily chart shows that the situation has not changed over the day - the Marlin oscillator also tends to go into the negative zone.



The four-hour chart shows that the price is trying to break out of the resistance of the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator is still in the downward trend zone, but shows an intention to move into an upward trend. If such a pattern does occur, it will most likely turn out to be false, since there are no fundamental conditions for targeted purchases. Even today, US durable goods orders for November are forecast to rise 0.7%.

In general, we recommend skipping buy signals and waiting for a reverse sell signal.

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JAPAN'S HOUSING STARTS FALL AT SLOWER PACE



Japan's housing starts continued to decline in November albeit at a slower pace, data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism showed on Friday.

Housing starts were down 3.7 percent on year, following October's 8.3 percent decline. This was also better than the expected decrease of 4.9 percent.

Annualized housing starts rose to 820,000 in November from 802,000 in the previous month.

Further, data showed that construction orders received by the big 50 contractors decreased 4.7 percent on a yearly basis, bigger than the 0.1 percent fall posted in October.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on December 25, 2020

USD/JPY
USD/JPY gained 13 points within the trading range of the last three days. Today the Japanese trading floors are open, at the moment the pair is quoted at 103.54, that is, it is already 14 points lower than yesterday's close. Japanese investors seem to be preparing for a negative turn of events from the opening of the new week. We keep our previous forecast that the price will move under the 103.18 level and its successive decline to 102.35.



The four-hour chart shows that the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has already reached the top of its own wedge. Exit from the wedge, respectively, we wait downward, the oscillator will soon leave the negative zone and accelerate the fall.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 28, 2020

EUR/USD
No significant changes in the market over the past four holidays. The market is thin, and after tense expectations about Brexit, investors want to be compensated for their efforts. Therefore, the price breakdown, which we expected earlier, is possible. If there is no breakout, then we are waiting for calmer movement to the first target of 1.1995 - this is the support of the MACD line on the daily chart. For a more stable decline in price, the transition of the Marlin oscillator to the zone of negative values is not enough. This may happen after the quotes drop below 1.2150.



The four-hour chart shows that the euro's general sentiment is for it to fall, but the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is bent up suspiciously strongly, indicating an intention to enter the positive zone. If this happens, then the price will also surpass the MACD indicator line to the upside, which will entail some more growth in the free roaming area, because the market remains thin. Until it ceases to freely roam around (which will not be long), we are waiting for the downward trend to resume for all indicators.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 29, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro gained 32 points on Monday, staying in the range of December 22nd. There are fewer signs of a downside breakout. Perhaps there won't be one, the price will spend the final days of 2020 in the range of 18-21. The price divergence with the Marlin oscillator is still present, the first significant target is determined by the MACD line at 1.1990.



The four-hour chart shows that the price winds up on the MACD line, which is also a sign that the price is in the range. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is similarly curved around the zero neutral line. If the price moves below 1.2180, it will be a sign of the first attempt to break through.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on December 30, 2020

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar added 30 points yesterday as the US dollar slightly weakened. Visually, the price shows an intention to reach the target range of 0.7660/75, but the Marlin oscillator is below the lower boundary of its own channel and this factor warns of a high degree of change with this unattainable target.



The four-hour chart shows that there is an increase above the MACD indicator line, which speaks in favor of growth, but the Marlin oscillator has practically fallen into a horizontal trend, which indicates the weakness of the trend, thereby confirming the technical uncertainty of the daily timeframe.



In this situation, it is advisable to wait for clear signs of a trend reversal. Or, to settle above the 0.7675 level when the alternative scenario has been implemented.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 31, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro decided to leave the final days of the outgoing year more beautifully than expected. It continues to grow throughout the week, very little is left to the target level of 1.2330, afterwards a double divergence will be formed on the daily chart and the euro will go into the unknown in 2021.



The first task in the new year is to reach the consolidation range of August-November at 1.1750-1.1885. The first target in order to fall to 1.2035 is the MACD line.



Growth continues on the four-hour chart. There is a possibility of forming a divergence, due to which the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has clearly slowed down its growth and lies a little in the horizon.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for January 4, 2021



Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has made new swing high at the level of 1.2309, but the Monday open was below the level of 1.2250 and the price pulled-back towards the trend line support. The Broadening Wedge price pattern is still in progress, so please notice that this particular pattern is a trend reversal pattern, which indicates a possible major correction on the EUR/USD soon. For now, the zone located between the levels of 1.2154 - 1.2177 remains the key demand zone for bulls. The positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook as long as the demand zone is not clearly violated. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2555, but this might be the last push up for EUR/USD before the correction. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 invalidates this scenario.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.2419
WR2 - 1.2360
WR1 - 1.2290
Weekly Pivot - 1.2236
WS1 - 1.2163
WS2 - 1.2103
WS3 - 1.2035

Trading Recommendations:
Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. The market might be making the Broadening Wedge trend reversal pattern around the levels of 1.2200 - 1.2300. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario.

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