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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 5, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar lost around 40 points yesterday, stopping exactly at the December 17 high of 0.7641. We took this level in the last review as a signal to switch to a downward short-term trend with the target of 0.7465. Testing this level confirms its significance.



The signal line of the Marlin oscillator stopped at the lower border of its own downward channel. Obviously, the market did not have enough strength to continue yesterday's trend. Buyers, albeit short-term speculators, still believe in the positive development of risky and commodity currencies, although oil fell by 1.74% (CL) yesterday . We expect the price to drop below the signal level and move towards the target of 0.7465 (December 21 low).



The four-hour chart shows that the price slightly pierced the MACD line and rebounded off the signal level of 0.7641. The Marlin oscillator has entered the downward trend zone and is staying there this morning. We are waiting for the price's second attempt to overcome support at 0.7641.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 6, 2021

GBP/USD
During yesterday's growth of the British Pound against the background of the general temporary weakening of the Dollar, there was an attempt to get above the target level of 1.3624. The attempt failed and there was only a minor puncture of resistance. Today, in the Asian session, the price played back half of yesterday's growth. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned down from the line forming the divergence. The target of the Pound's decline is 1.3325 which is the Kruzenshtern line on the daily chart.



On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone. With the price fixing under the Kruzenshtern line at 1.3578, the road to the marked target of 1.3325 opens to gain more confidence with the departure under the minimum on January 4 (1.3540).



The four-hour chart shows that the price slightly pierced the MACD line and rebounded off the signal level of 0.7641. The Marlin oscillator has entered the downward trend zone and is staying there this morning. We are waiting for the price's second attempt to overcome support at 0.7641.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 7, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro, as a risk currency, grew yesterday as a response to the information that the Democrats had won a seat in the upper house of the US Congress. At the same time, the latest macroeconomic report from ADP showed disappointing results on new jobs in the private sector - the index showed a decrease by 123,000 in December against expectations of an increase of 60,000 and an increase of 304,000 in November. Some believe that the upcoming data on unemployment will come out even worse; the forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change is 98,000 against 344,000 in November, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.8% from 6.7% in November.



It is difficult to determine where the euro will go with such data, since the January-April 2018 range is very wide (1.2206-1.2555), there are potential reversal levels within it in increments of 40 points. But at the same time, rising by another 70-100 points will not break the divergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart, which will preserve the euro's potential for a reversal. In this section, we will define the 1.2397-1.2414 range as the target, taken at the extremes on April 11 and 17, 2018.



The short-term price decline was stopped by the MACD line on the four-hour chart. The price divergence with the oscillator is held. We are waiting for the euro to rise to the specified target range of 1.2397-1.2414, but we do not recommend opening longs. Getting the price to settle below the MACD line (1.2268) will signal an attack on support at 1.2215.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 8, 2021

AUD/USD
Against the background of yesterday's large-scale strengthening of the dollar (only oil did not follow the dollar's growth), the Australian currency lost 34 points; it returned to the target level of 0.7770, the Marlin oscillator returned to its own downward channel, leaving the exit from it on the 6th as false, which we assumed in yesterday's review. Now, we are waiting for the signal line of the oscillator to exit the channel down, go into the zone of negative values, and further advance the price to the targets of 0.7641, 0.7465.



The price on the four-hour scale is still above the balance and MACD indicator lines, but Marlin is already in the territory of a declining trend, dragging the market sentiment to a further decline. In order to consolidate this trend, the price will need to go under the MACD line, below 0.7220. This is the main scenario.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 11, 2021

EUR/USD
The US employment report from last Friday had mixed results; the non-agricultural sector lost 140,000 jobs against expectations of growth by 60,000, but at the same time the November figure was revised up from 245,000 to 336,000, the share of the economically active population remained at 61.5%, while the unemployment rate was at 6.7%. But the structure of labor data acquired a qualitative positive shift: the broad unemployment index fell from 12.0% to 11.7%, while 38,000 jobs were added in the manufacturing industry against the forecast of 20,000. But even if the data was not enough, it conveniently fits into the idea of the new administration of President Biden to adopt a plan for new budget expenditures worth several trillion dollars, and he will elaborate on the topic this week. In anticipation of this news, as well as at the beginning of the next cycle of attracting new debts by the US Treasury, the dollar was actively being purchased both yesterday and this morning. This week it is expected to raise 60 billion of net debt through government bonds.



The daily chart shows that the euro is initially aiming for 1.2050 - the MACD indicator line. If the price moves below the line, the second target will be 1.1885. But first, the price must overcome the 1.2152/77 range that was created by the extremes on December 23 and 4. There may be a slight correction from it. The Marlin Oscillator is in the downward trend zone, where it entered very decisively.



The four-hour chart shows that the price began to accelerate to the downside, from the area where the balance and MACD indicator lines coincide. The short-term trend is decreasing.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 12, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro fell by almost 70 points on Monday, stopping in the designated range of 1.2152/77. Consolidation is observed in the range this morning. With the exit from the consolidation to the downside, more precisely, with the price moving below yesterday's low of 1.2132, we expect the quote to fall towards the target along the MACD line at 1.2045.



The four-hour chart shows that the price is consolidating in a narrow range of 1.2152/77, but the corrective reversal of the Marlin oscillator warns of a possible exit from this range, just slightly above it. The signal to sustain the fall will be when the price crosses the area under yesterday's low of 1.2132.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 13, 2021

AUD/USD
On Tuesday, the growth of the Australian dollar covered the fall on Monday. Perhaps this is the intention of the price to set a new high with the formation of another divergence with the oscillator. However, a price reversal into a new branch of decline is also possible; for this purpose, there should be a consolidation under 0.7770, which will take another day, since the current candle should close below this level. Today, the situation is not trading.



The price on the four-hour chart is fixed above the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. There are signs of continued growth, but false signals often appear on trend breaks. A more reliable signal will look like fixing the price under the MACD line (0.7735 / 40), after which the target level of 0.7641 can be expected to work out.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 14, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro dropped 48 points and returned to the consolidation range of 1.2132/77. Leaving the range for growth can be mistaken for a false movement when the price falls below the lower border of the range, and this will boost traders' confidence for an attack not only on the nearest target of 1.2050 along the MACD line on the daily chart, but also below, to the target level of 1.1920 ( high on November 9 and September 10).



The four-hour chart shows that the Marlin oscillator operates on the zero neutral line, which to some extent weakens its leading role as a leading indicator. But on the other hand, if the price falls, the oscillator will have enough margin for a downward movement. We are waiting for the development of the situation. Before the price falls below 1.2132, the price may once again try to test the MACD line at 1.2225.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 15, 2021

EUR/USD
On Thursday, the euro traded in the consolidation range of 1.2132/77 with a short exit from it to the downside, with an attempt to pull down the price below the balance line on a daily timescale. If the price settled below this line, it would mean a shift in market sentiment towards short positions in the medium term.



The Marlin Oscillator has been in a downward trend zone for a week now, a sign that the euro will strengthen its attempts to break down the remaining rising technical signs. The price continues to develop above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. Getting the pair to settle below it, under 1.2050, will strengthen the market's downward sentiment and send the price towards the 1.1920 target (November 9 high).



The price is consolidating in the 1.2132/77 range on the four-hour chart, but a more pronounced consolidation is observed on the Marlin oscillator. The main direction of the oscillator signal line's exit from the range is to the downside, but taking into account that it could form on the border of the positive area following the previous growth (technical figure "flag"), there is still a possibility that the price could rise to the MACD line (1.2220) or even to the target level of 1.2273 - the high on December 17. In order to confirm the price's intention to fall, the price would have to settle below the lower border of the 1.2132 range.

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USDCAD is facing bearish pressure, potential for further downside!



Price is facing bearish pressure from our first resistance in line with our horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci extension where we could see a drop below this to our first support target.


Trading Recommendation Entry:

1.2790

Reason for Entry:

horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci extension

Take Profit: 1.2745

23.6% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.2832

Reason for Stop Loss:

horizontal swing high resistance

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.