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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 11, 2018 The break above resistance at 1.7847 told us that the corrective ...

          
   
  1. #291
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 11, 2018



    The break above resistance at 1.7847 told us that the corrective decline from 1.7929 had completed prematurely and a new impulsive rally towards 1.8030 and 1.8369 should be unfolding.

    Despite our expectation of a new impulsive rally towards 1.8030, we should be aware of the possibility of a more complex correction unfolding, but the minimum upside target should be 1.7929 if a larger flat correction is in the making.

    R3: 1.8030
    R2: 1.7960
    R1: 1.7929
    Pivot: 1.7882
    S1: 1.7835
    S2: 1.7800
    S3: 1.7774

    Trading recommendation:
    We are long EUR from 1.7847 and we will place our stop at 1.7780. Upon a break above 1.7882 will will move our stop to break-even at 1.7847.


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  2. #292
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on October 11. Speech by Mark Carney supported the pound

    To open long positions on GBP/USD pair, you need:

    Buyers managed to stay above the support level of 1.3184, which I mentioned in the morning review, and the comments of the Governor of the Bank of England allowed traders to increase their long positions. The main task for the second half of the day is to break through and consolidate above resistance 1.3220, which will lead to the formation of a new upward movement in the pound with a maximum of 1.3269, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of a decline in GBP / USD in the afternoon, long positions can return immediately to the rebound from the support of 1.3147.

    To open short positions on GBP / USD pair, you need:

    Sellers will try to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.3220 and the formation of a false breakdown on it will lead to a larger downward trend with repeated support test of 1.3184. A break of 1.3184 will allow us to expect an increase in short positions in the GBP / USD pair by updating the lows in the area of 1.3147 and 1.3098, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of the pound rising above the resistance of 1.3220 in the second half of the day, it is best to return in short positions on a rebound from a high of 1.3269.

    Indicator signals:

    Moving Averages

    The price is above the 30-day and 50-day moving average, which indicates continuous growth of the pound.

    Bollinger bands

    The upside potential is limited by the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3236. The breakthrough of which will lead to a new wave of pound growth.



    Description of indicators

    MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
    MA (moving average) 30 days - green
    MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
    Bollinger Bands 20

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  3. #293
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October, 2018



    EUR/JPY has seen a low at 129.12 and we are now looking for a break above minor resistance at 129.80 and more importantly a break above short-term important resistance at 130.51. It will confirm that blue wave (2) has completed and blue wave (3) towards 138.10 is developing.
    Support is now seen at 129.34 and then at 129.12.
    R3: 130.85
    R2: 130.51
    R1: 130.05
    Pivot: 129.80
    S1: 129.34
    S2: 129.12
    S3: 128.99

    Trading recommendation: We will buy EUR at 129.10 or upon a break above 129.80.

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  4. #294
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    GBP/USD. October 15th. Results of the day. The fate of the pound may be decided at the summit on October 17-18

    4-hour timeframe



    The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 105 p-117 p-79 p-66 p-111 p.

    Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 96 PT (97 p). The British pound opened today with a large "gap" down, but managed to close it during the day.

    In principle, the technical picture of the last two days for EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs is the same. The only difference is that the pound is more volatile. At the moment, the price has consolidated back above the Kijun-sen line, which may mean the completion of a deep correction and the resumption of an uptrend. However, the MACD indicator is still pointing down (!!!), which is due to the formation of a "gap" at the opening of the market. Thus, the indicator readings are simply incorrect now. As for the fundamental component, in addition to the report on retail sales in the US, which slightly increased the demand for the pound during the day, there is nothing to note today. Even no new rumors about Brexit has not been received. Thus, market participants are fully focused on the summit, which will be held on 17-18 October, and which is highly likely to be either signed an agreement or negotiations will fail completely. Of course, everyone, especially traders, now believe that the "deal" will be signed. But we think the odds are about 50/50. If the parties could easily concede on the Northern Ireland border, they would have done so long ago. Nobody wants to give in, and Britain needs the "deal" first. But additional concessions to the European Union will lower Theresa May's political ratings even more. Not everyone is happy with her rule and negotiations in the UK.

    Trading recommendations:

    The GBP/USD currency pair seems to have completed the correction, but the breakdown of the Kijun-sen line may be false, given the nature of the next bar. Thus, now it is recommended to hurry with the opening of new longs, it is better to wait for clarification of the situation.

    Sell positions are relevant as long as the price is below the Kijun-sen line. But MACD did not react to the upward correction and now can not signal its completion with a turn down.

    In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

    Explanation of the illustration:

    Ichimoku indicator:

    Tenkan-sen - the red line.

    Kijun-sen - the blue line.

    Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

    Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

    Chinkou Span - green line.

    Bollinger Bands indicator:

    3 yellow lines.

    MACD Indicator:

    Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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  5. #295
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    GBP/USD: turned away from the pound

    Wednesday's trading day is marked by uncertainty. The dollar is gaining momentum ahead of the publication of the latest minutes of the Federal Reserve, and the pound and defensive instruments are waiting for the outcome of the EU summit. General nervousness plays in favor of the US currency, especially after the recovery of the US stock market. The British currency, in turn, is not only under the pressure of negative rumors about Brexit, but also due to the slowdown of inflation indicators. There was no trace of yesterday's optimism, after which the GBP/USD pair headed towards the 30th figure.

    Meanwhile, there are no results of the key summit yet: only a working dinner will be held tonight, while Theresa may is holding bilateral meetings with its participants. Therefore, the main statements will be announced or closer to the night or (most likely) by tomorrow. But the pound is already getting cheaper throughout the market, as negative forecasts regarding the Brussels meeting began to prevail in the information field. For example, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said today that Germany has begun preparations for a chaotic Brexit, as the issue of the Irish border remains an insurmountable stumbling block. The head of the European Council Donald Tusk yesterday took a similar position, adding that the probability of "hard" Brexit is high as ever.

    Representatives of other countries are less categorical, but most of them are wary of the upcoming negotiations. Increasingly, there are thoughts that the parties need a time gap until November, December or even January. It is difficult to say whether the rhetoric of the Europeans is a "strategic maneuver" on the eve of the main negotiations, but, apparently, the parties do not really expect any breakthrough from the October meeting.



    According to a number of experts, there is an elementary "game of nerves": despite the fact that the parties planned to reach a compromise in September, the so-called "red line" is still relatively far away. Therefore, so far it is possible to exhaust each other with threats of chaotic Brexit with all the ensuing consequences. Such behavior is a risk, as after another failure in Brussels under Theresa May could once again stagger the prime minister's chair, not only in opposition to the labour, as there are many representatives of the Conservative Party who oppose her.

    However, according to other experts, Theresa May is in no hurry to make a deal at this summit. The fact is that at the end of October, the British Parliament will adopt the country's budget for the next year, in connection with which the prime minister needs the votes of deputies. In turn, representatives of the Democratic Unionist Party (May's coalition ally) threatened the prime minister that they would not support the adoption of a financial document if it made concessions on the Irish border. Therefore, Theresa May can delicately circumvent this problem by postponing the signing of the agreement for November.

    Thus, the preliminary information background does not bode well for the bulls of the GBP/USD, and today's weak data on inflation offset the positive effect of yesterday's release on the labor market (where a significant increase in wages was recorded).

    The dollar, for its part, is also beginning to exert pressure: the US currency again began to be in demand against the backdrop of an uncertain geopolitical situation. Yesterday, several Republican congressmen called for sanctions against Saudi Arabia if information about Riyadh's involvement in the disappearance of an opposition journalist is confirmed.

    In addition, the minutes of the September meeting, published today, can also support the dollar. Although this meeting took place before the release of rather weak inflation data in the US, the rhetoric of the document is important for the market. Here it should be recalled that the Federal Reserve in September not only raised the rate, but also excluded from the text of the accompanying statement the definition of "stimulating" in relation to the monetary policy.

    Although in the future, Fed officials (including Powell) stressed that the actions of the regulator are still mild and not deterrent. The minutes of the meeting can clarify this situation, thus outlining the prospects of monetary policy next year. In other words, today's release may, firstly, increase the probability of a hike in December, and secondly, increase/decrease the probability of accelerating the pace of monetary policy tightening in 2019. If the "hawkish" notes will prevail, the dollar will get another reason for its growth.



    From a technical point of view, the situation with the GBP/USD pair has not changed: the price is still clamped in the range of 1.3105-1.3280, where the support level is the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which coincides with the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart, and the resistance level is the top line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe. Depending on the outcome of the EU summit, the pair will go to one of the boundaries of the range, followed by its breakdown.

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  6. #296
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    EUR/USD: illusive hopes and pressing problems

    The euro-dollar pair has not managed to break out of the price range of 1.1460-1.1620, although today the price has approached its lower limit. But the bulls again seized the initiative and did not allow it to gain a foothold in the 14th figure. However, the upward dynamics also did not receive its continuation, so the pair was stuck in the flat in anticipation for new information impulses.



    The fundamental background of the pair is very contradictory: the events of the last day do not have an unambiguous "black and white" color, so it is difficult for traders to determine the vector of further movement. For example, the initial signals from the EU summit significantly disappointed the market, after which the pound and the euro lost their positions. But today there is information that Brussels has offered London to extend the period of the transition period - approximately one year. And the British, apparently, supported this idea - at least the rhetoric of Theresa May (which, however, allowed the prolongation "for a couple of months") eloquently testifies to this. Later, there were also unofficial comments of high-ranking officials of Britain, which also confirm such intentions.

    In other words, even if the parties do not have time to agree on key positions before March 2019, Britain will remain within the single market and within the customs Union for almost three years that is, until December 2021. Such prospects calmed the markets a bit, but it is too early to "relax" after all, today is the second day of the summit (the most intense in the context of multilateral negotiations), so the participants of the meeting can still present surprises - both of a positive nature and vice versa.

    Although the euro follows the pound in many ways (especially when the Brexit issue is discussed), the single currency is not as focused on the summit as the British. Therefore, today the bulls of the EUR/USD focused on the rhetoric of the ECB representative Olly Rehn (head of the Central Bank of Finland). He voiced his expectations about the growth of the interest rate - according to him, the European central bank will consider this issue in the fourth quarter of next year. Naturally, if the dynamics of the eurozone economy will maintain the current pace.

    Despite the fact that we are talking about very long-term prospects, traders reacted with optimism to such intentions. Moreover, the position of Rehn sounded simultaneously with the rhetoric of ECB Board member Ewald Nowotny, who said that he sees Jens Weidmann, the head of the Bundesbank, as the successor of Mario Draghi. Let me remind you that Weidmann has long and consistently advocated the tightening of monetary policy. If he really will head the European Central Bank (and it is called the main candidate) next year, then the pace of the rate hike can be significantly revised.

    In other words, the fundamental factors that supported the euro today relate to too distant prospects. Therefore, the reaction to them was short-term, and the pair returned to more pressing issues. In particular, the problem of the Italian budget remained in limbo. According to a number of publications, the European Commission next week will reject the draft budget with a deficit of 2.4%, and its revision will take at least a month and a half. That is, this issue may be delayed until December, thus putting background pressure on the euro.

    Another factor of uncertainty is the local elections in Germany. Let me remind you that Angela Merkel's partner in the Christian-Social Union coalition suffered a serious defeat in the elections to the Bavarian Parliament. 37% of Bavarians voted for the CSU, whereas five years ago this figure was almost 50%.

    For the first time in 60 years, CSU representatives lost a single-party regional government. In addition, an impressive result was shown by the far-right party "Alternative for Germany", whose representatives took 22 seats in the local Parliament. According to some experts, the elections in Bavaria reflected the current political preferences of the Germans that is, the growth of anti-European sentiment and the decline in the popularity of Merkel. At the end of October (28th) another regional elections will be held -in Hesse, where Angela Merkel is in charge of the "Christian Democratic Union". If the far right will press the CDU there, it will be a very alarming signal for Brussels.

    Thus, the euro can not count on the support of the fundamental background, since the news "with a plus sign" are long-term, and "minus sign" is more estimated. In addition, the dollar is also not losing ground published on Wednesday, the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve showed the "hawkish" attitude of the majority of regulator members, after which the probability of a hike in December again increased to 80%. Of course, the published opinions of officials are somewhat "overdue" in time after all, the September meeting was held before the release of the latest inflation data (very weak) and before the events in the stock markets. But in general, the regulator kept a bullish attitude and did not disappoint market participants.



    In summary, it should be noted that EUR/USD traders should closely monitor the level of 1.1460 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the four hour chart) - when it breaks, the pair can sharply gain momentum and go to the bottom of the 14th figure, where the nearest support level is located (the lower line of the above indicator on the daily chart). The technical picture has a further decline (in particular, this is evidenced by the bearish "Parade of lines" signal of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator on D1).

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    Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com

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