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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 23, 2024 GBP/USD Yesterday, the composite PMI index for the UK ...

      
   
  1. #1611
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 23, 2024

    GBP/USD
    Yesterday, the composite PMI index for the UK increased to 53.30 in February from 52.90 in January of 2024. The British pound, also influenced by external markets, gained 22 pips. The intraday growth was 74 pips, but the price could not break out of the grids of the indicator lines in the daily timeframe.



    The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is growing in the positive territory, but visually it is getting weaker. In order to rise to the nearest target of 1.2745, the price must close today with a white candle to settle above the MACD line. To realize the opposite scenario, the quote must overcome the support of 1.2610. We are waiting for Monday.



    On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled and is rising above both indicator lines. However, the Marlin oscillator moves horizontally, in a sideways range. The uptrend is getting weaker, and it is better to wait for the start of next week.

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  2. #1612
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    FOREX ANALYSIS & REVIEWS: FORECAST FOR AUD/USD ON FEBRUARY 26, 2024

    AUD/USD
    A reversal started in AUD/USD after the test of the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator moving towards the positive area also reflects this scenario. Most likely, the pair will decline when the price drops below the support level of 0.6504 and head towards 0.6410.



    On the four-hour chart, the fall below the MACD line and 0.6542 indicates an impending downward movement. The Marlin oscillator also turned downward.



    Today, data on new home sales in the US will be released, with an expected growth of 2.41%. If the data turns out to be weaker than expected, stock indices will decline and, along with them, AUD/USD.

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  3. #1613
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    FOREX ANALYSIS & REVIEWS: FORECAST FOR EUR/USD ON FEBRUARY 27, 2024

    EUR/USD
    S&P500 decreased by 0.38%, while the dollar index declined by 0.20%, thanks to a slight increase in government bond yields. Investors also expressed some confusion over the lack of agreements in Congress on the budget, which could lead to another partial government shutdown (starting from March 1). If the shutdown occurs, it will not necessarily lead to an automatic decline in dollar. Most likely, it will strengthen in the medium term as a safe-haven currency amid the decline in stock markets.



    On the daily chart, yesterday's rise in euro halted because of the balance line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator also turned downward slightly. If the price settles below 1.0825, the pair will move towards 1.0724. EUR/USD faces obstacles not only from the indicator lines but also from the target level of 1.0905. It needs to successfully surpass the level to continue the movement towards the target level of 1.1001 (peak on January 11).



    On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator continues to experience pressure and may soon shift downward. However, the price remains above the indicator lines, so the pair may not decline yet. A downward move will occur only when the price settles below the support at 1.0825 and falls under the MACD line support at 1.0806, which coincides with the peak from February 12.

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  4. #1614
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    FOREX ANALYSIS & REVIEWS: FORECAST FOR EUR/USD ON FEBRUARY 28, 2024

    EUR/USD
    Euro's situation did not change even though the indicators on the daily chart maintained their positions. The price continues to test its strength in both upward and downward movements, leaning towards the downside. This indicates a potential breach of the support level at 1.0825, where a consolidation below the level will likely bring the pair to the target level of 1.0724.



    Weak data on durable goods orders and consumer confidence in the US came out, but dollar did not decline. Further movement will depend on the upcoming GDP data for the 4th quarter, which forecasts say will remain unchanged at 3.3%.



    On the four-hour chart, the price appears to be heading towards the balance line. It will test the support level of 1.0825 along with the movement. The MACD line (1.0814) lies slightly below the level.

    Without external assistance, such as a decline in stock indices, euro will find it difficult to cross the support levels in a single day. Currently, it has only one ally - the Marlin oscillator, which already arrived at the area of a downward trend.

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  5. #1615
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    FOREX ANALYSIS & REVIEWS: FORECAST FOR EUR/USD ON FEBRUARY 29, 2024

    EUR/USD
    On Wednesday, the euro made a strong attempt to break below the support level of 1.0825, but, as we anticipated in yesterday's overview, it did not succeed in just a day. Nevertheless, it made an attempt, and speculative interest is clear. We expect another attack on the aforementioned support level. Traders could receive external help yesterday, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.17%, and in today's Asia Pacific session, the S&P/ASX200 is losing 0.16%.



    On Wednesday, U.S. lawmakers, for the fourth time, agreed to extend funding for some government agencies for a week, through March 8, and the rest for another two weeks, until March 22. Obviously, they will be able to approve the final allocation of $1.7 trillion even if they fail to do so in March.

    We're waiting for the price to settle below the level of 1.0825 to confirm the market's choice in pushing the pair towards 1.0724. An alternative scenario, suggesting growth above 1.0905, will begin to develop after the price overcomes the resistance of the MACD line (1.0874).



    On the 4-hour chart, yesterday, the price failed to settle below the MACD line, rising back above the red balance line. The Marlin oscillator is in its lower half, indicating a predominantly downward trend. In order to support the decline, the price needs to settle below the 1.0817 mark.

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  6. #1616
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator Analysis of GBP/USD on March 4, 2024




    The GBP/USD currency pair may move upward from the level of 1.2649 (closing of Friday's daily candle) to 1.2680, the 14.6% pullback level (yellow dotted line). Then, from the said level, a continued upward movement is possible to the upper fractal at 1.2708 (yellow dotted line).

    Wave Analysis by InstaForex-analysis.jpg


    Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis up; Fibonacci levels up; Volumes up; Candlestick analysis up; Trend analysis up; Bollinger bands up; Weekly chart up. General conclusion: Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.2649 (closing of Friday's daily candle) to 1.2680, the 14.6% pullback level (yellow dotted line). Then, from the said level, a continued upward movement is possible to the upper fractal at 1.2708 (yellow dotted line). Alternatively, from the level of 1.2649 (closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may move upward to 1.2680, the 14.6% pullback level (yellow dotted line). Then, a downward movement may occur with a target of 1.2663, the 23.6 % pullback level (yellow dotted line)


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  7. #1617
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator Analysis of EUR/USD on March 5, 2024



    Today, the price may move downward from the level of 1.0854 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to test the historical support level at 1.0836 (blue dotted line). After that, an upward movement is possible to the 38.2% pullback level at 1.0864 (red dotted line), where the price may continue to rise. Alternatively, from the level of 1.0854 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move downward to test the 76.4% pullback level at 1.0842 (blue dotted line). After that, an upward movement is possible to the 38.2% pullback level at 1.0864 (red dotted line), where the price may continue to rise.


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  8. #1618
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator Analysis of EUR/USD on March 5, 2024



    Today, the price may move downward from the level of 1.0854 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to test the historical support level at 1.0836 (blue dotted line). After that, an upward movement is possible to the 38.2% pullback level at 1.0864 (red dotted line), where the price may continue to rise. Alternatively, from the level of 1.0854 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move downward to test the 76.4% pullback level at 1.0842 (blue dotted line). After that, an upward movement is possible to the 38.2% pullback level at 1.0864 (red dotted line), where the price may continue to rise.


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  9. #1619
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis for March 6th. The dollar is on the verge of a new decline



    The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. Over the past year, we have seen only three-wave structures of a larger scale that constantly alternate with each other. Currently, the construction of another three-wave structure is continuing - a downtrend that began on July 18 of last year. The presumed wave 1 is complete; wave 2 or b has become more complex three or four times but is now also complete as the decline of the pair has been ongoing for more than two months.

    The upward trend section may still resume, but its internal structure will be absolutely unreadable in this case. I remind you that I try to highlight clear and unambiguous wave structures that do not tolerate dual interpretations. If the current wave analysis is correct, the market has moved on to form wave 3 or c. Currently, presumably, wave 2 in 3 or c is being built. If this is indeed the case, an unsuccessful attempt to break the 61.8% Fibonacci level may indicate the completion of this wave. At the same time, this wave can take on a distinctly three-wave form. In any case, this decline in the quotes of the pair should not be completed.

    Alternatively, wave analysis may become significantly more complicated. The exchange rate of the EUR/USD pair rose by 15 basis points on Wednesday. Every day I say the same thing: market activity is currently so low that all price changes can be ignored. In addition to low market activity, the pair has been in a horizontal movement between Fibonacci levels 76.4% and 61.8% for over two weeks. Wave 2 in 3 or c may take on a three-wave form, implying a breakthrough of the 1.0881 mark. If this happens, the American currency may depreciate even more. However, there is no need to worry about this. Correctional waves often take on a three-wave form, so it can be said that everything is going according to plan.

    Today, as well as Thursday and Friday, will be crucial for the American currency. In a couple of hours in America, reports on job vacancies and the number of new employees in the non-agricultural sector will be released, and Jerome Powell will speak in the US Congress. Tomorrow is another Powell speech, and the day after tomorrow is the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment reports. And this is not counting the ECB meetings and Christine Lagarde's speeches. Everything indicates that the last three working days of the week should be fiery.

    For the current wave analysis to be preserved, at least not all of these events should increase demand for the euro. If at least half of the reports favor the dollar, and Lagarde and Powell do not change their previously voiced rhetoric, the dollar may depreciate within the wave plan. And then move on to building wave 3 in 3 or c. If this wave starts today or tomorrow, I'm fine with that too. I continue to consider only selling the pair.

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  10. #1620
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD review and analysis: Gold looks poised for further gains

    For eight consecutive days, the price of gold has been gaining strong positive momentum. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to lower interest rates in June are keeping bulls on the U.S. dollar on the defensive and are a key factor directing flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic problems in China provide support to this safe-haven asset.

    Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari played down rumors of a more aggressive policy easing. This, in turn, prompted a modest rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and helped limit the potential decline of the dollar. However, tense conditions on the daily chart are currently preventing traders from entering new bullish positions ahead of the NFP report, which will be released today during the American session. From a technical perspective, the recent breakthrough above the $2,100 mark is considered a key trigger for the bulls.

    Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart already indicates overbought conditions. Therefore, before preparing for the continuation of the established short-term upward trend, it would be prudent to wait for some short-term consolidation or a moderate pullback. Nevertheless, gold seems poised for further growth towards the psychological $2,200 mark. On the flip side, corrective declines can be viewed as an opportunity to buy, with a limited figure of around $2,100. This mark is a turning point that, in the case of a decisive breakthrough, could push the price of gold back to the $2,065 level. Some subsequent sales may imply that the XAU/USD pair might shift the balance in favor of bears.

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