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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on January 18, 2024

USD/JPY
The pair demonstrated strong growth in the past three days and even reached the target level of 148.35 yesterday. At this point, the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart indicated a reversal.



It remains uncertain whether the pair will fall into a correction or a medium-term decline. Nevertheless, growth will halt at 149.30 (price channel line on the weekly chart) and 149.72 (target level determined by the peaks of November 22-24). In the case of a correction, the pair will find support at the MACD line and the level of 146.24. Consolidation below this level will lead to a decline towards the target levels indicated on the chart.



On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator shows the beginning of a reversal, while the MACD line, which the price must overcome to confirm its intention, remains downward. The decline of the pair will not be rapid (in the form of a triangle), and this will allow the MACD line to approach the price.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 19, 2024

GBP/USD
Yesterday, on the daily chart, the British pound opened and closed the day above the balance indicator line (red). This indicates that the balance of power has shifted towards buying, and the price has settled above this line.



The Marlin oscillator is still in the downtrend territory, but it is getting weaker, and the price still needs to overcome the resistance level at 1.2745 to decisively defeat the bears. It is likely that a break above 1.2745 and the oscillator transitioning into the positive territory will occur simultaneously. Exchange Rates 19.01.2024 analysis



On the 4-hour chart, Marlin has already entered the growth territory. It is important for the price to break above the resistance of the MACD line (1.2715), which is currently being held back by the balance line. Considering these factors, the price may be able to overcome visible obstacles and continue to rise. The target is 1.2826, which is the high from December 28th.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 22, 2024

EUR/USD
The markets reaffirmed their commitment to risk-taking on Friday, with the S&P 500 setting a new all-time high, a level not seen since January 2022. The US dollar index fell by 0.24%, while the euro gained a modest 22 pips. However, we do not expect risk appetite to persist, primarily due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Taiwan. A market downturn could occur suddenly and significantly at that.



At the moment, the euro is trying to break through the resistance at 1.0905 and along with it the balance indicator line, which would open the way for the price to reach the target levels of 1.1033 and 1.1076 (the high from April 14, 2023). The Marlin oscillator has gained strength on the daily timeframe, moving towards the border of the uptrend territory.



On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has moved into the bullish territory. The only thing left to do is for the price to settle above 1.0905, which would also be a move above the MACD indicator line, and then the price could continue to rise.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 23, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the main event was that traders saw a higher probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rate at the March meeting to 58.4%. The speeches of FOMC representatives finally had an effect. As a result, the dollar index increased by 0.08%, and the euro fell by 15 points.



The price rebound occurred at the intersection point of the balance indicator line on the daily timeframe with the target level of 1.0905. The local decline is supported by the MACD line around the level of 1.0853 on the daily timeframe. A consolidation below this level will allow the price to move towards 1.0825 and even 1.0730, which is the embedded price channel line and the target level.



A consolidation above 1.0905 will open the way towards the target of 1.1033. This is the main scenario. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in a sideways neutral movement. Tomorrow, the eurozone will publish the Manufacturing PMI for January, with a forecast of 44.8 compared to December's 44.4. The US Manufacturing PMI is also expected to rise, reaching 48.0 compared to 47.9 in December. This likely indicates a recovery in risk appetite.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 24, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday was a volatile day for all major currencies. The euro traded within the range of 1.0825-1.0905 with a slight overlap. The Marlin oscillator is currently recovering, and the price is moving above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, which it has yet to surpass. So we are still aiming for a breakthrough of 1.0905 and have the price rise to 1.1033 or even higher.



Today, the eurozone will publish the Manufacturing PMI for January, with a forecast of 44.8, compared to December's 44.4. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI is also expected to rise to 48.0 from December's 47.9. We expect a recovery in risk appetite, especially considering that U.S. stock markets closed mixed yesterday.

Tomorrow, the European Central Bank will announce its vision on monetary policy, and there are already rumors that the ECB may adopt a stricter stance than the Federal Reserve in its meeting next week.



On the 4-hour chart, the price and the oscillator have formed a convergence. We can confirm the price's intention to turn upward when it moves above the MACD line and beyond the 1.0877 level. After that, the price may aim for the 1.0905 level.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 26, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the price repeated Tuesday's scenario – the daily candle tested the boundaries of the range between 1.0825 and 1.0905 with candles, and the day closed with a long black body. However, the price closed the day below the MACD indicator line, and it opened today below this line. The European Central Bank meeting and ECB President Christine Lagarde's subsequent speech were neutral.



There are currently more technical prerequisites for breaking through support, but overall, market interest in risk has increased significantly – almost all financial market instruments rose yesterday, from stock markets to bonds and gold. This increase in risk appetite was driven by strong US GDP data – 3.3% growth in the fourth quarter, exceeding the forecast of 2.0%.

Investors may be expecting a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve at its January 31 meeting. Now, any of the euro's movements could turn out to be a false move. We are waiting for the key event of the upcoming week. We believe that the Federal Reserve will be the first to start the rate-cut cycle, so the Fed may also start to show verbal signals.

Today, the US will release data on income and spending for December, with expectations being positive, and they could strengthen the rise of riskier assets, including the euro.



On the 4-hour chart, the price and oscillator have formed a semblance of a double or even triple convergence. We can confirm this once the price settles above the MACD line (1.0855). Take note that the MACD line coincides in price level with the daily MACD line (1.0857), and overcoming such significant resistance could push the euro upward.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 29, 2024

EUR/USD
At the end of the past week, during which the central banks of Japan, Canada, and the eurozone held meetings, the euro fell by only 44 pips. This indicates that investors are waiting for the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's decisions, and until then, significant market movements are not expected. Although the price settled below the MACD line on the daily chart, there is a small chance that the price will settle below the support level of 1.9825 since the bearish gap from the opening of the session has not yet been closed, and settling below the MACD line ahead of the Fed meeting may turn out to be a false signal.



Overcoming the MACD line (1.0862)will certainly eliminate the existing danger of a significant drop below 1.0825. However, this will not be a sign of a rise above 1.0905. Of course, we are waiting for the Fed's decision on monetary policy and the market's reaction to it. We expect the euro to fall below 1.0450 if the US stock market falls. Perhaps this will happen in February for political reasons.



On the 4-hour chart, an unclosed gap is clearly visible. The price adheres to the MACD line. The downtrend is restrained by a double convergence with the Marlin oscillator. We await the Fed meeting on Wednesday.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on January 30, 2024

USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair once again tested the resistance level at 148.35 and forcefully moved downwards toward the support level at 146.24, just below which lies the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is decreasing. If the price consolidates below 146.24, it will signal the start of a medium-term decline in the pair, possibly below 140.27.



US government bond yields turned lower on Monday.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance indicator line, and the MACD line is turning downwards.



We are seeing signs of a new downward trend being formed. The Marlin oscillator made a false breakout into the positive territory (marked by a rectangle), afterwards it returned to the downtrend territory. We are awaiting the price at the first target level of 146.24.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 31, 2024

EUR/USD
The euro completed a small task set before yesterday – it worked out the resistance of the MACD indicator line on the daily timeframe, closing the day with a white candle. Meanwhile, the Marlin oscillator strengthened its bullish momentum, which shows that the euro is ready to rise ahead of the FOMC meeting. From a technical standpoint, this will look like the price breaking out of the descending corrective wedge. This is our main scenario. The first bullish target is 1.0905, and the second is 1.0966 – the peak of November 21, 2023.



If events develop according to an alternative scenario, the price may attack the lower embedded line of the price channel with a target level of 1.0730.

On the 4-hour chart, the price pierced the price support of 1.0825 and the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator turned down from the zero line. The gap from the opening of the week was closed yesterday evening.



Earlier, we mentioned that of all the major central banks, the Federal Reserve would be the first to signal a rate cut. Assuming that the Fed will not lower the rate in March but only in May, even in this case, today is a very convenient time to send the corresponding signal. Recent statements by officials from these central banks illustrate this assumption well: Fed official James Bullard mentioned the possibility of a rate cut in March, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said yesterday that we still need to wait for employment and wage data.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 1, 2024

GBP/USD
Following the outcome of yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, the British pound became stable below the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The target level of 1.2745 was tested with the upper shadow. The Marlin oscillator continues its sideways movement. Today, it started the day by trading higher. The main signal that the pound received from the Fed is the Bank of England's commitment to a hawkish stance at today's meeting, following the Fed's example.



Most likely, this stance will be revealed through the voting division among the committee members. As a result, the probability of the pound's growth is quite high. After surpassing 1.2745, the first target is 1.2826. Next, we expect the upper boundary of the price channel to be tested around 1.2876. This is the main scenario.



On the 4-hour chart, the price is returning above the MACD line as a continuation of the sideways trend. The Marlin oscillator provides an even greater sign of growth, which entered the growth territory yesterday. We are waiting for the BoE meeting.

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