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This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Signal for GOLD (XAU/USD) on August 15 - 16, 2022: sell if breaks 1,785 (21 ...

      
   
  1. #1241
    Senior Member InstaForex Gertrude's Avatar
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Signal for GOLD (XAU/USD) on August 15 - 16, 2022: sell if breaks 1,785 (21 SMA - uptrend)



    Early in the European session, gold (XAU/USD) was trading above the 21 SMA located at 1,793 and above the 200 EMA located at 1,763. We can see that gold is trading within an uptrend channel formed on July 26.

    Last week, XAU/USD consolidated in the range of 1,781-1,807. On the other hand, lower US inflation data pushed US bond yields lower. Despite this gold failed to break the resistance zone of 1,812. (6/8 Murray).

    If XAU/USD breaks above 6/8 Murray at 1,812, traders could expect gold to hit the resistance zone at 1,843 (7/8). Otherwise, if the price of gold continues below the psychological level of $1,800, the price may move to the 200 EMA at 1,773 and even fall to 4/8 Murray and 1,750.

    Recent comments from several Fed officials indicate that the US central bank will continue to tighten its monetary policy. An interest rate hike of 50 basis points is expected in September. This data could limit the rise of gold and could exert downward pressure on the price to push towards support levels of 1,718.

    Since the August 1, gold has been giving a negative divergence signal. If XAU/USD fails to break the strong resistance of 6/8 Murray located at 1812, a correction towards 4/8 Murray at 1,750 is likley to occur.

    Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy if there is a technical bounce around the uptrend channel or above the 21 SMA located at 1,793, targeting 1,800 and 1,812.

    Conversely, a sharp break below the trend channel formed on the 4-hour chart and a close below 1,785 could be a clear signal to sell with targets at 1,773 and 1,750.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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  2. #1242
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on August 16, 2022

    As a result of Monday, the British pound fell by 79 points, passing under the indicator balance line, which empirically shifts the players' interest mainly in short positions.



    The price is systematically approaching the nearest support at 1.1970 - the MACD line of the daily scale. The Marlin Oscillator has crossed the border with the territory of the downward trend, the downward movement continues. The second target is the level of 1.1800.



    The price settled below the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, Marlin is falling in negative territory. We are waiting for a further slow decline in the pound.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  3. #1243
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on August 17, 2022

    The pound slowed down corrective growth at the target level of 1.2100. If the price does not settle above it, then we are waiting for a reversal with the development of support for the MACD line of the daily scale in the area of 1.1965. Further, the 1.1800 target may open.



    A large layer of inflation indicators for July will be released in the UK today. The core CPI is expected to rise from 5.8% y/y to 5.9% y/y, while the overall CPI could rise from 9.4% y/y to 9.8% y/y. Only a slight weakening is expected in producer prices - their selling prices may show an increase of 16.2% y/y against 16.5% y/y a month earlier. Thus, the option with the pound's growth is possible, we will consider its details on the four-hour chart.

    Growth is limited by the MACD indicator line on the H4 chart, approximately at the level of 1.2170. At the current moment, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is turning down from the border with the territory of the growing trend. Therefore, consolidating under 1.2100 will resume the price decline in its main direction. First target at 1.1965.



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  4. #1244
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 18, 2022

    The euro rose by 11 points yesterday, the upper shadow of the daily candle did not reach the MACD line by 3 points (up to 1.0206), today this line slightly dropped to the price of 1.0202.



    The price may work out the line, it may exit slightly above it with the upper shadow, it may go down immediately, but in general, we are waiting for the price to go under 1.0150 and further move towards the target level of 1.0020.

    The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator also did not reach the zero line on the four-hour chart, so there is a possibility that the pattern of the synchronous reversal of the price and the oscillator from their resistances will end. In general, the corrective growth of the last 9-11 candles can be considered complete.



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  5. #1245
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for August 19, 2022

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The GBP/USD pair has been seen testing the trend line support around the level of 1.1916. Any sustained violation of the level of 1.1916 will likely result in another down wave towards the level of 1.1890 and below. The momentum is weak and negative already at the H4 time frame chart, so the bearish dominance is obvious, however the market conditions on the H4 time frame chart are now extremely oversold. Please keep an eye on the trend line breakout/bounce (thick orange line on the chart) as the price action around the line will give us more clues regarding the down move strength. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice.



    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.2206
    WR2 - 1.2156
    WR1 - 1.2141
    Weekly Pivot - 1.2123
    WS1 - 1.2099
    WS2 - 1.2082
    WS3 - 1.2040

    Trading Outlook:
    The Cable is way below 100 and 200 DMA , so the bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of down trend termination or reversal. The bulls are now trying to start the corrective cycle after a big Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame chart, however there is no visible progress here yet. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1410. Please remember: trend is your friend.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  6. #1246
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: USDCAD Potential For Bullish Rise | 22nd August 2022



    On the H4, with the price above the ichimoku cloud and moving within the ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the 1st resistance at 1.30067, which is the 78.6% fibonacci projection to the 2nd resistance at 1.30508, which is in line with the previous swing highs and 100% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, the price may drop to the 1st support at 1.29415, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is. If the price break this level, we can expect it to drop to 2nd support at 1.29014, where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is.

    Trading Recommendation
    Entry: 1.30067 Reason for Entry: 78.6% fibonacci projection
    Take Profit: 1.30508
    Reason for Take Profit: 100% fibonacci projection and previous swing highs
    Stop Loss: 1.29415
    Reason for Stop Loss:
    23.6% fibonacci retracement

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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  7. #1247
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 23, 2022

    The euro did not linger in consolidation at 1.0020 on Monday and, as it falls, reached the next bearish target level of 0.9950. Now the next target (0.9850) is open. The reason for this was serious fears (over the past month) regarding the global recession. The German stock index DAX fell by 2.32%, the US S&P 500 by -2.14%.



    The price settled under the target level of 0.9950 on the four-hour chart. Apparently, the price will rest a bit under this level, consolidate, and then continue to decline.



    Business activity figures for the euro area for August will be published today - negative forecasts: Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall from 49.8 to 48.9, Services PMI may drop from 51.2 to 50.5.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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  8. #1248
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: USDCAD Potential For Bullish Rise | 24th August 2022



    On the H4, with the price above the ichimoku cloud and moving within the ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that if the price break the 1st resistance at 1.29836, which is the current swing high and 38.2% fibonacci retracement, the price may rise to the 2nd resistance at 1.30632, which is in line with the swing high. Alternatively, the price may drop to the 1st support at 1.28899, where the 50% fibonacci retracement is. Take note the price of 1.29328 could be the intermediate support, if the price breaks this support, the ascending trendline will be broken.

    Trading Recommendation
    Entry: 1.29836
    Reason for Entry: Current swing high and 38.2% fibonacci retracement,
    Take Profit: 1.30632
    Reason for Take Profit: Swing highStop Loss: 1.28899
    Reason for Stop Loss:
    50% fibonacci retracement

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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  9. #1249
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Drop | 25th August 2022



    On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from 1st resistance at 0.62122 where the pullback overlap resistance is to the 1st support at 0.60612 where the swing low support and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Alternatively, price could break 1st resistance and rise to 2nd resistance at 0.63160 where the overlap resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.

    Trading Recommendation
    Entry: 0.62122
    Reason for Entry:Pullback overlap resistance
    Take Profit: 0.60612
    Reason for Take Profit: Swing low support and 161.8% fibonacci extension
    Stop Loss: 0.63160
    Reason for Stop Loss:
    Overlap resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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  10. #1250
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 26, 2022

    The euro practically stood still on Thursday, in anticipation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the banking conference in Jackson Hole today. However, the upper shadow of the daily candle tested the resistance level of 1.0020.



    Now the price is approaching the support at 0.9950, after which the path to 0.9850 will open. In the process of a decline, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator will go under the turquoise line of weak convergence, which will eliminate it and take on the formation of a less steep, but more solid convergence, from the pink dashed line.

    On a four-hour scale, yesterday's top was marked on the balance indicator line. The price is in a strong downward position, but the Marlin Oscillator, which is still in the positive area, should confirm its intention for further decline. With the price consolidating below 0.9950, Marlin may find itself in the territory of negative values



    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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