Trading News Events

- Headline U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Rise for First Time in 2015.
- Core Rate of Inflation to Climb to Annualized 1.8% to Mark First Uptick Since March.

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

A meaningful pickup in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may boost the appeal of the greenback and spur fresh monthly lows in EUR/USD as it fuels speculation for a Fed rate hike in 2015.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

Signs of stronger price growth may encourage the Fed to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy, and we may see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) later this year as Chair Janet Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% target for inflation over the policy horizon.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN)	0.1%	0.3%
Unemployment Rate (JUN)	5..4%	5.3%
ADP Employment Change (JUN)	218K	237K

Rising input costs along with the ongoing improvement in the labor market may push U.S. firms to raise consumer prices, and a strong inflation report may heighten the bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar as the Fed remains on course to normalize monetary policy.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (JUL)	12.0	5.7
Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)	0.3%	-0.3%
NFIB Small Business Optimism (JUN)	98.5	94.1

However, waning business confidence paired with the weakness in private-sector consumption may continue to drag on price growth, and a dismal CPI print may generate a near-term rebound in EUR/USD as it drags on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Headline & Core CPI Picks Up in June

• Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
• If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: Consumer Price Inflation Falls Short of Market Expectations

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily

• May see a run at the May low (1.0818) as EUR/USD fails to retain the range-bound price action carried over from the previous week; even though the long-term outlook remains bearish, the euro-dollar may continue to consolidate over the near to medium-term as it retains the wedge/triangle formation from earlier this year.
• Interim Resistance: 1.1180 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement)
• Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

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- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Expand 200+K for Third Consecutive Month.
- Unemployment Rate to Hold at Annualized 5.3%- Lowest Since 2008.

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Another 225K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may spur greater demand for the greenback and spark a near-term sell-off in EUR/USD should the fresh batch of data heighten speculation for a Fed rate hike at the September 17 meeting.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

Despite the unanimous vote to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) at the July 29 meeting, signs of a stronger recovery may generate a greater dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and we may see a growing number of central bank officials talk up bets for a September liftoff should the employment report boost the outlook for growth and inflation.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
ISM Non-Manufacturing (JUL)	56.2	60.3
Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)	0.9%	3.2%
Building Permits (MoM) (JUN)	-8.0%	7.4%

The ongoing expansion in service-based activity paired with pickup in the housing market may encourage a strong NFP print, and a better-than-expected release may spur a near-term rally in the greenback as it boosts interest rate expectations.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
ADP Employment Change (JUL)	215K	185K
NFIB Small Business Optimism (JUN)	98.5	94.1
Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)	0.3%	-0.3%

However, waning business sentiment along with the ongoing weakness in private-sector spending may drag on job growth, and a dismal employment report may encourage the Fed to further delay its normalization cycle especially as Chair Janet Yellen looks for a further improvement in labor dynamics.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Employment Increases 225K or Greater

• Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
• If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: NFP Report Falls Short of Market Expectations

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD

• Long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish amid the divergence in the policy outlook, but the pair may continue to consolidate over the near-term as it remains stuck in the wedge/triangle formation from earlier this year.
• Interim Resistance: 1.1180 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement)
• Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month

Period	Data Released	Estimate	Actual	Pips Change (1 Hour post event )	Pips Change (End of Day post event)
JUN 2015	07/02/2015 12:30 GMT	233K	223K	+25	+23

June 2015 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD M5: 66 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event:

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls(NFP) increased 223K in June following a revised 254K expansion the month prior, while the unemployment rate narrowed to an annualized 5.3% from 5.5% to mark the lowest reading since April 2008. However, the downtick in the jobless rate was accompanied by a decline in labor force participation as the rate slipped to 62.6% from 62.9% in June, while wage growth missed market estimates and unexpectedly slowed to 2.0% from 2.3% during the same period. Despite the ongoing improvement in the labor market, the ongoing slack in the real economy may prompt the Federal Reserve to further delay its normalization cycle as the central bank remains in no rush to remove its highly accommodative policy stance. The bearish reaction in the dollar failed to gather pace, with EUR/USD struggling to hold above the 1.1100 handle throughout the North American session to end the day at 1.1082.



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- U.K. Retail Sales to Increase for Fifth Time in Last Seven-Months.
- Will a Rebound in Private-Sector Consumption Encourage a Greater Dissent Within the BoE?

Trading the News: U.K. Retail Sales

A 0.4% rebound in U.K. Retail Sales may heighten the appeal of the British Pound and fuel the near-term breakout in GBP/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to raise the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

Positive data prints coming out of the U.K. economy may highlight a tightening race between the BoE/Fed to normalize monetary policy, and GBP/USD may continue to retrace the decline from July 2014 should the fundamental developments spur a growing dissent within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Average Hourly Earnings ex. Bonus (3MoY) (JUN)	2.8%	2.8%
Jobless Claims Change (JUL)	1.0K	-4.9K
Net Consumer Credit (JUN)	1.1B	1.2B

Stronger wage growth paired with the expansion in private-sector credit may boost household spending in the U.K., and a strong rebound in retail sales may generate fresh monthly highs in GBP/USD as market participants ramp up expectations for a BoE rate hike.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUL)	0.9%	1.2%
Producer Price Index Core- Output n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL)	0.2%	0.3%
GfK Consumer Confidence (JUL)	5	4

However, higher prices along with narrowing confidence may drag on consumer spending, and a dismal print may drag on the British Pound and spur a further delay of the BoE’s normalization cycle as the majority continues to look for a stronger recovery.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: Retail Sales Rebounds 0.4% or Greater

• Need green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long British Pound trade.
• If market reaction favors bullish sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.

Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Household Spending Falls Short of Market Expectations

• Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
GBP/USD Daily

• Ongoing closes above former-range resistance may highlight a further advance in GBP/USD especially as the bullish
• RSI momentum gathers pace.
• Interim Resistance: 1.5750 (23.6% retracement) to 1.5780 (38.2% retracement)
• Interim Support: 1.5330 (78.6% retracement) to 1.5350 (50% retracement)

Impact that the U.K. Retail Sales report has had on GBP during the last release

Period	Data Released	Estimate	Actual	Pips Change (1 Hour post event )	Pips Change (End of Day post event)
JUN 2015	07/23/2015 8:30 GMT	0.4%	-0.2%	-51	-141

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Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

The Fed may stay on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015 as the central bank still anticipates a stronger recovery to materialize over the coming months, and data prints encouraging an improved outlook for growth & inflation may spur a greater dissent within the committee as the economy gets on a more sustainable path.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUL)	-1.1%	2.0%
Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)	0.6%	0.6%
ISM Non-Manufacturing (JUL)	56.2	60.3

The expansion in service-based activity along with the pickup in household spending may generate a stronger-than-expected GDP print, and a positive development may boost interest rate expectations as Fed Chair Janet Yellen remains upbeat on the economy.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Building Permits (MoM) (JUL)	-8.0%	-16.3%
Non-Farm Payrolls (JUL)	225K	215K
Construction Spending (MoM) (JUN)	0.6%	0.1%

However, easing job growth paired with the slowdown in building activity may drag on growth rate, and signs of a slower recovery may spur a further delay of the Fed’s normalization cycle as the central bank struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Growth Rate Expands Annualized 3.2% or Greater

• Need to see red, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a short trade on EURUSD.
• If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: 2Q GDP Report Falls Short of Market Expectations

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily

• Near-term breakout in EUR/USD keeps the focus on the topside targets as the RSI retains the bullish momentum; will retail a constructive view along as the pair holds above former-resistance around 1.1180 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement).
• Interim Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
• Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

Impact that the U.S. GDP report has had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period	Data Released	Estimate	Actual	Pips Change (1 Hour post event )	Pips Change (End of Day post event)
1Q P 2015	05/29/2015 12:30 GMT	-0.9%	-0.7%	-6	+6

1Q 2015 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

EURUSD M5: 42 pips rangeprice movement by USD - GDP news event:

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Originally Posted by TheNews

Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ...

EURUSD M5: 36 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event:

- European Central Bank (ECB) to Keep Rates on Hold, Retain EUR 60B QE Program.
- Will ECB President Mario Draghi Endorse Expansion/Extension of Asset-Purchases?

Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision

Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to retain its current policy in September, the fresh updates coming out of the Governing Council may trigger a selloff in EUR/USD should the committee show a greater willingness to expand/extend its quantitative easing (QE) program.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important

Dovish rhetoric accompanied by a downward revision in the ECB’s growth & inflation forecast is likely to dampen the appeal of the Euro, and central bank President Mario Draghi may talk up bets for additional monetary support in an effort to further insulate the fragile recovery in Europe.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Trade Balance s.a. (JUN)	23.1B	21.9B
Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (2Q A)	1.3%	1.2%
Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)	-0.2%	-0.6%

The ECB may take additional steps to shore up the ailing economy as it struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability, and bets for more easing may lead EUR/USD to give back the rebound from the previous month amid the growing deviation in the policy outlook.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Unemployment Rate (JUL)	11.1%	10.9%
Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (AUG A)	0.9%	1.0%
Economic Confidence (AUG)	103.8	104.2

Nevertheless, we may get more of the same from the ECB as the non-standard measures work through the real economy, and the near-term bound in EUR/USD may gather pace in September should the central bank endorse a wait-and-see approach.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Shows Greater Willingness for Larger/Longer QE Program

• Need red, five-minute candle following the policy announcement to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
• If market reaction favors a bearish Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bullish EUR Trade: President Draghi Continues to Endorse Wait-and-See Approach

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
• Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily

• Despite expectations for a greater deviation in the policy outlook, need a break of the near-term bullish trends in price & RSI to favor a further decline in EUR/USD.
• Interim Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
• Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

Impact that the ECB rate decision has had on EUR/USD during the last meeting

Period	Data Released	Estimate	Actual	Pips Change (1 Hour post event )	Pips Change (End of Day post event)
JUL 2015	07/16/2015 11:45 & 12:30 GMT	0.05%	0.05%	+5	-1

The European Central Bank (ECB) stuck to its current policy in July, with the Governing Council keeping the benchmark interest rate at the record-low of 0.05%, while preserving its pledge to ‘fully implement’ the quantitative easing program. Despite the ongoing concerns surrounding the Greek crisis, the ECB may keep its asset-purchase program capped at EUR 60B/month as the central bank sees a ‘moderate’ recovery in Europe. The bullish market reaction to the ECB rate decision was short-lived, with EUR/USD falling back from a session high of 1.0925 and closing the day at 1.0869.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren


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- U.S. Durable Goods Orders to Contract for First Time in Three-Months.
- Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts to Decline for Fourth Time in Last Eight Months.

Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

A 2.3% decline in demand for U.S. Durable Goods accompanied by a weakening outlook for business investments may produce near-term headwinds for the greenback as it fuels speculation for a further delay in the Fed liftoff.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the October 28 interest rate decision as the central bank adopts a more cautious outlook for the region, and signs of a slower recovery may encourage Chair Janet Yellen to preserve the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) throughout 2015 in an effort to further insulate the real economy.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG)	0.3%	0.2%
U. of Michigan Confidence (SEP P)	91.1	85.7
Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (JUL)	0.1%	-0.3%

Waning confidence accompanied by the ongoing weakness in private-sector consumption may drag on orders for large-ticket items, and a dismal development may put increased pressure on the Fed to further delay the normalization cycle especially as the central bank scales back its outlook for growth and inflation.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Building Permits (MoM) (AUG)	2.5%	3.5%
ISM Non-Manufacturing (AUG)	58.2	59.0
Personal Spending (JUN)	0.2%	0.2%

On the other hand, the ongoing expansion in building and service-based activity may spur greater demand for durable goods, and a positive data print may keep the central bank on course to raise the benchmark interest rate in 2015 as Chair Yellen remains confident in achieving the Fed’s dual mandate for full-employment and price stability.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish USD Trade: Orders Contract 2.3% or Greater in August

• Need to see green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long trade on EURUSD.
• If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bullish USD Trade: Demand for Large-Ticket Items Beat Market Forecast

• Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily

• EUR/USD may face a larger rebound as it fails to retain the recent series of lower-highs and preserves the monthly-opening low (1.1086); need a break of the bullish RSI formation carried over from March to favor a resumption of the long-term downward trend.
• Interim Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
• Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

Impact that the U.S. Durable Goods report has had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period	Data Released	Estimate	Actual	Pips Change (1 Hour post event )	Pips Change (End of Day post event)
JUL 2015	08/26/2015 12:30 GMT	-0.4%	2.0%	-14	-77

Orders for U.S. Durable Goods unexpectedly rose 2.0% in July after increasing a revised 4.1% the month prior. At the same time, Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircrafts showed, a proxy for future business investments, showed a faster rate of growth as the figure climbed another 2.2% following a 1.5% expansion in June. The better-than-estimated readings may keep the Fed on course to life the benchmark interest rate in 2015 especially as Chair Janet Yellen continues to anticipate a stronger recovery to emerge throughout the remainder of the year. The initial market reaction was limited and short-lived, with EUR/USD failing to push below the 1.1350 region, but the greenback strengthened in the latter-half of the North American trade to end the day at 1.1310.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

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- European Central Bank (ECB) to Adjust QE Program & Reduce Deposit-Rate.
- Will ECB President Mario Draghi Keep the Door Open to Expand Policy Further?

Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision

The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may fuel a further decline in EUR/USD amid speculation for additional monetary support but, heavy expectations for a meaningful announcement may ultimately trigger a short-squeeze in the exchange rate should the central bank disappoint.

What’s Expected:

Beyond bets for a meaningful adjust to the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) program, market participants are looking for a further reduction in the central bank’s deposit-rate as the Governing Council struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability. Efforts to further insulate the monetary union may push EUR/USD to give back the advance from the March low (1.0461) amid the deviating paths for monetary policy.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (NOV A)	1.1%	0.9%
Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (3Q A)	1.7%	1.6%
Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP)	0.2%	-0.1%

The disinflationary environment accompanied by the weakening outlook for global growth may encourage the Governing Council to enlist more policy tools to shore up the real economy, and the Euro stands at risk of facing additional headwinds in 2016 should the central bank keep the door open to further embark on its easing cycle.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Economic Confidence (NOV)	105.9	106.1
M3 Money Supply (YoY) (OCT)	4.9%	5.3%
Markit Purchasing Manger Index- Composite (NOV P)	54.0	54.4

Nevertheless, improved confidence paired with the pickup in lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) may prompt the ECB to take a more patient approach as the non-standard measures work their way through the real economy, and the central bank may opt to easing policy further in 2016 as there appears to be a sustainable recovery taking shape in the monetary union.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Expands/Extends QE & Cuts Deposit-Rate

• Need red, five-minute candle following the policy announcement to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
• If market reaction favors a bearish Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bullish EUR Trade: Central Bank President Draghi Attempts to Buy More Time

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
• Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily

Impact that the ECB rate decision has had on EUR/USD during the last meeting

Period	Data Released	Estimate	Actual	Pips Change (1 Hour post event )	Pips Change (End of Day post event)
OCT 2015	10/22/2015 11:45 & 12:30 GMT	0.05%	0.05%	-87	-207

Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) stuck to its current policy in October, the Governing Council showed a greater willingness to further embark on its easing cycle as the central bank opened the door for a further reduction in deposit-rate. As the ECB pledges to re-examine its non-standard measures, the central bank may continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory in an efforts to further insulate the monetary union . The Euro sold off as the ECB removed the floor on interest rates, with EUR/USD breaking below the 1.1200 handle following the interest rate decision to close the day at 1.1107.

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Originally Posted by TheNews

- European Central Bank (ECB) to Adjust QE Program & Reduce Deposit-Rate.
- Will ECB President Mario Draghi Keep the Door Open to Expand Policy Further?

Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision

EURUSD M5: 150 pips price movement by EUR - Minimum Bid Rate :

- U.S. Advance Retail Sales to Increase for Second-Consecutive Month.
- Household Spending Has Risen Four Out of Last Ten-Months.

Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

Another 0.2% expansion in U.S. Retail Sales may fuel speculation for a December Fed rate-hike and spur a near-term pullback in EUR/USD as central bank officials largely endorse an upbeat outlook for the world’s largest economy.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

Signs of stronger consumption may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) at the next meeting as it remains one of the leading drivers of growth and inflation but, a weak sales report may drag on rate expectations as Chair Janet Yellen appears to be in no rush to normalize monetary policy.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Non-Farm Payrolls (NOV)	200K	211K
Durable Goods Orders (OCT P)	1.7%	3.0%
Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (3Q P)	2.1%	2.1%

With the U.S. economy approaching full-employment, a pickup in household spending may encourage the Fed to implement higher borrowing-costs throughout 2016, and a positive development should boost the appeal of the greenback as the central bank gets ready to shift gears.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Consumer Credit (OCT)	$20.000B	15.982B
Household Change in Net Worth (3Q)	--	-$1232B
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (NOV)	2.3%	2.3%

However, subdued wages accompanied by the slowdown in private credit may drag on sales, and a dismal outcome may prompt the FOMC to lower its interest-rate forecast at the December meeting as it undermines the central bank’s scope to achieve the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Retail Sales Expands 0.2% or Greater in November

• Need red, five-minute candle following a positive print to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
• If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Household Consumption Falls Short of Market Forecast

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EUR/USD Daily

• EUR/USD stands at risk of further retracing the decline from the October high (1.1494) as the bull flag formation takes shape following the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to breaking out of the bearish formation from back in August.
• Interim Resistance: 1.1052 (November high) to 1.1090 (50% retracement)
• Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

Impact that the U.S. Retail Sales report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month

Period	Data Released	Estimate	Actual	Pips Change (1 Hour post event )	Pips Change (End of Day post event)
OCT 2015	11/13/2015 13:30 GMT	0.3%	0.1%	-12	+10

U.S. Retail Sales continued to miss market expectations in October as household spending increased 0.1% after holding flat during the previous month. A deeper look at the report showed waning demand for motor vehicle/parts accompanied by lower gasoline receipts dragged on the print, which was largely offset by increased spending on building material and health/ personal care. Despite the ongoing weakness in private-consumption, it seems as though the Fed will stay on course to raise the benchmark interest rate in 2015 as Chair Janet Yellen sees the central bank on its way to achieve its dual mandate for full-employment and price stability. The initial decline in the greenback was short-lived, with EUR/USD largely consolidating throughout the North American trade as it closed the day at 1.0762.


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