US Dollar and GOLD Technical Analysis

Talking Points:

• Support: 11809, 11754, 11719
• Resistance:11864, 11899, 11927

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index continues to correct downward, sliding to the weakest level in two months. A daily close below the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 11809 exposes the 123.6% level at 11754. Alternatively, a move above the 76.4% Fib at 11864 opens the door for a challenge of the 61.8% expansion at 11899.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Advances to the Strongest Level in Three Weeks
• S&P 500 Remains in Digestion Mode Below Record High
• Gold, Crude Oil Prices Still Waiting for Direction Trigger

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices accelerated upward, advancing to the highest level in three weeks. Near-term resistance is at 11898, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 11960. Alternatively, a turn back below the 38.2% Fib at 11836 clears the way for a test of the 23.6% retracement at 11759.



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating after breaking range resistance and setting a new record high. From here, a daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 2140.70 exposes the 61.8% level at 2159.30. Alternatively, a move back below the 38.2% Fib at 2122.10 targets the 23.6% expansion at 2099.10.



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate after recoiling from resistance below $1250.oz. A close below trend line resistance-turned-support at 1204.19 exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1193.38. Near-term resistance is at 1232.30, the May 18 high.



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain locked in a choppy consolidation range below the $70/barrel figure. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement exposes the 38.2% level at 60.27. Alternatively, a move above trend line resistance at 67.68 targets the 23.6% Fib expansion at 69.70.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Daily




-“The last several July’s have been important for USDOLLAR. An important top registered in July 2013. In 2014 (low was June 30th and rally began on 7/2), an important low formed. The index is not at a trend extreme but it is at an important technical level; the 61.8% retracement of the June decline and slope resistance.” The push above the line that extends off of the April-June high negates anything bearish. Watch for support at 11970. A drop below 11918 (treated as the breakout day low) would indicate that this breakout was ‘false’.

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Talking Points

• “Forgotten” retracement continues to cap USDOLLAR
• End of year dynamics suggest important move looming

Waiting for a directional move in the Dow Jones FXCM USDOLLAR Index (equally weighted basket of USD versus EUR, JPY, and GBP & AUD) these past few months has felt a lot like waiting for Godot. Every time it seems we are about to get a meaningful break one-way or the other the index pulls back right into its familiar range. Last week for instance, the index touched its highest level in six months after briefly taking out its topside opening range for the quarter, but then just as quickly turned right back down.

At the risk of sounding like “the analyst that cried wolf”, I think this impasse should break relatively soon. A few things make me say that, but the approach of the end of the year is probably the biggest factor. End of year is incredibly important for the institutional community and the fact that the dollar has done nothing since April leads me to believe that nobody really has the positions on anymore. CFTC positioning data, although flawed, somewhat backs up this assertion.
The Index has failed three times over the past couple of months around 12,100 (which is the oft overlooked 88.7% retracement of the April – May range). Another visit of this level probably sees it break (Gann rule of four) and a weekly close over it could easily incite an end of year performance chase “pain trade” higher. Following six months of consolidation, I cannot help but think there is plenty of built up energy waiting to be released and with the end of year performance clock ticking I suspect it happens sooner rather than later. I would not rule out an end of year move lower just yet (especially given December seasonals are pretty negative USD), it just seems less likely to me here given current spot levels as it would probably take a move sub 11,850 in the USDOLLAR to trigger it.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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D1 price is located above 100 day SMA (100-SMA) and 200 day SMA (200-SMA) for the ranging within the following key reversal support resistance levels:

• 100.51 resistance level located above 100-SMA/200-SMA in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
• 97.22 support level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.

The price is trying to break 99.29 intermediate resistance level to above, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging comdition to be continuing.

• If the price will break 100.51 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
• If price will break 97.22 support so the reversal from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
100.51	97.22
N/A	94.25

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 97.22 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 100.51 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

• Gold Technical Strategy: Watching for a Break Above 1,270 To Enter Long
• The 200-DMA In USDollar Could Be a Key Driver for XAUUSD in Q2
• Weekly Ichimoku Cloud Favors a Behavior Change is Afoot

Gold bears often look smart until they do not. The move higher from the December, when the Federal Reserve decided to hike interest rates for the first time since 2006, has been breathtaking. Gold has moved higher by 23%, and another 10 to 20% rally could happen should the US dollar fail to recover and move back above the 200-day moving average again. The recent move higher in gold preceded other commodity markets like crude oil and silver moving higher.

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H4 Intra-day

Intra-day H4 price broke 100/200 SMA ranging area for the bearish breakdown: the price was stopped by 95.09 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing with 94.58 level as the nearest bearish target.

D1 price is located below 200 period SMA for the bearish market condition: the price is on bear market rally for the testing of 30-day high level at 95.50 to be crossed to above for the rally to be continuing.

If the price will break 95.50 on close daily bar from below to above so the local uptrend as the secondary rally will be continuing with the good possibility to the bullish reversal.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Trend:

• D1 - rally

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