US Dollar and GOLD Technical Analysis

Daily

-The clearest section of recent DXY price action is the 3 wave rally from the May low. That alone suggests that the path of least resistance is lower. Of course, weakness from the July high isn’t impulsive either (but could be motive), which leaves the wave picture unclear. Pay attention to the rising trendline just below price. Weakness below would be the best signal yet that a breakdown is underway. Downward slope is defined by the December-January trendline and also serves as the bearish invalidation level.

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Daily

-The last update noted that “weakness from the July high isn’t impulsive (but could be motive), which leaves the wave picture unclear. Pay attention to the rising trendline just below price. Weakness below would be the best signal yet that a breakdown is underway. Downward slope is defined by the December-January trendline (there now) and also serves as the bearish invalidation level.” The index surged through trendline resistance today so focus is towards an estimated channel top just above 99.00.

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Daily

- Focus remains towards an estimated channel top above 99.00 although I’d be aware of horizontal levels at 98.33/58 as near term roadblocks. These horizontal levels are defined by the August 2015 and March 2016 highs. There is one interesting tidbit worth mentioning regarding the EUR/USD and DXY relationship. Non-confirmations between these 2 markets (EUR/USD accounts for 57% of DXY) warn of ‘traps’ or false breakouts and non-confirmation is precisely the order of the day as DXY has surpassed its July high but EUR/USD remains above its July low. Stay tuned…

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Daily

-Focus remains towards an estimated channel top above 99.00 although I’d be aware of horizontal levels at 98.33/58 as near term roadblocks (NOW). These horizontal levels are defined by the August 2015 and March 2016 highs. There is one interesting tidbit worth mentioning regarding the EUR/USD and DXY relationship. Non-confirmations between these 2 markets (EUR/USD accounts for 57% of DXY) warn of ‘traps’ or false breakouts and non-confirmation is precisely the order of the day as DXY has surpassed its July high but EUR/USD remains above its July low. Stay tuned…


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Daily

The horizontal levels at 98.33/58 as near term roadblocks (NOW). These horizontal levels are defined by the August 2015 and March 2016 highs. The horizontal levels didn’t do anything but DXY spiked into the channel today before reversing. The response indicates clear overhead and risk is heightened on the long side.

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Daily

Charts don’t predict. Rather, the interpretation of trend and identification of price levels aid in tactics. The most recent comments for DXY were “the major trend defining test is the May-August trendline (channel bottom) and 200 day average (currently 95.82).” The reaction low after the election was 95.89. Did the chart ‘predict’ that the market was going there? Of course not. But, if you had this chart on hand Tuesday night, you’d be aware of the potential for big support on the drop. 1 day later and DXY is already nearing channel resistance.


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Daily

-Recent comments noted that “Monday’s (11/14) close settled above channel resistance, indicating potential for upside acceleration (could be a ‘blow-off’). The importance of the break through resistance is accentuated by the fact that channel resistance (former now) was support earlier this week (on 11/17 dip).” DXY hasn’t disappointed, having traded through the 2015 highs. Former highs at 99.83 and 101.51, along with former channel resistance, should be watched for support.


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H4

-There is no change to the DXY chart or comments. “Monday’s (11/14) close settled above channel resistance, indicating potential for upside acceleration (could be a ‘blow-off’). The importance of the break through resistance is accentuated by the fact that channel resistance (former now) was support earlier this week (on 11/17 dip).” DXY hasn’t disappointed, having traded through the 2015 highs. 99.83 (former support), along with former channel resistance, should be watched for support.

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Daily

-“As is the case with EUR/USD and USD/CHF, continued failure at trend extremes warrant caution although there is nothing ‘solidly bearish’ to work with just yet. Weakness below 100.51 (December 2015 high) would suggest a broader reversal.” 100.51 (2015 high) is classified as a decision point (make or break level). It’s OK to lean towards the long side as long as that level holds. Weakness below would suggest a broader reversal is underway.


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The US Dollar has taken a surprising step back as many anticipated the strong move that ended 2016 would carry through in early 2017. However, we have since seen a pull-back that is worth watching as a deeper setback could cause many of the long positions to bail out on the trade, which could have the effect of removing short-term support for USD.

DXY trading between the second half of Q3 2016 to today has remained well within the price channel on the chart below drawn with Andrew’s Pitchfork. The handle is drawn off an extreme momentum low in early June. You can also see that the late December price action rubbed against the top of the channel before breaking down, which now turns our attention to the bottom of the rising channel near 100.00/50 to see if we get a strong bounce. If we do, we can assume that the strong trend in USD is resuming.

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