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EUR Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on EUR Technical Analysis within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; The pattern the past few months in these times of extraordinarily low volatility has been for moves in the Euro, ...

          
   
  1. #111
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    EURUSD Weekly Technical Forecast

    The pattern the past few months in these times of extraordinarily low volatility has been for moves in the Euro, in both directions, to look like they want to build on momentum only to reverse. We are about to find out if this latest installment of weakness can last or will those who just sold be kicking themselves as another breakdown turns out to be false.

    EUR Technical Analysis-eurusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp-2.png


    If the pattern is to change then EURUSD can't burst higher in the coming days, it can bounce around a bit, but it can't rip and take back with it the Thursday dagger down day. If only a minor bounce happens then the trend of quick reversals may be over, and a sustainable downdraft may be in the works in the days/weeks ahead.

    In the event of more weakness below the Jan-current underside channel line and Jul 2015 t-line, the area around 11100 will become the next important spot to watch price action, where the trend-line running lower from November 2017 intersects with a minor swing-low created during June of that same year. A decent number of support lines running through the vicinity just below, but broader trend forces and pent up volatility ready to pop may be enough to help the Euro soon slice through…

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  2. #112
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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Weekly Bearish Ranging

    The Euro has stalled near one-month support after recoiling from resistance capping upside progress against the US Dollar since late September 2018. That barrier has also established a shallow but unmistakable series of lower highs. Indeed, prices appear to be stair-stepping lower, despite a lot of chop along the way.

    EUR Technical Analysis-eurusd-h4-metaquotes-software-corp-4.png


    From here, a daily close below the March 7 low at 1.1176 opens the door for a test of the 1.1110-32 area, marked by a range floor dating back to mid-2017. Thorough invalidation of the near-term bearish bias is some way off, calling for a daily close above trend line resistance now situated at 1.1412.

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  3. #113
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    EURGBP Uptrend Breakout

    EUR Technical Analysis-eurgbp-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    As EURGBP approaches the next major resistance level, which is a range between 0.8923 and 0.8953 on the chart below, keep an eye on support. That would be a rising channel going back to the middle of May highlighted in red below. Meanwhile, negative RSI divergence warns that upside momentum is fading. This can lead to a turn lower ahead.

    EUR Technical Analysis-eurgbp-d1-metaquotes-software-corp-2.png


    Meanwhile, IG Client Sentiment is showing that EURGBP is one of the most heavily-invested net-short trade when comparing overall conviction to other currencies, commodities and equities. This is still offering a EURGBP bullish-contrarian trading bias and may result in further gains down the road.

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  4. #114
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    Forex Volatility Highlights EUR/USD Next Week

    The Euro and US Dollar also look ripe for volatility next week with an update on Germany’s labor market on early Tuesday at 7:55 GMT and the release of the Institute of Supply Management’s US Manufacturing PMI shortly after at 14:00 GMT. According to the 1-week implied volatility reading of 6.28 percent, spot EUR/USD is estimated to fluctuate between 1.1280-1.1478 next week. Technical resistance posed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the currency pair’s year-to-date trading range near the 1.14 handle, which has previously served as a major confluence level, could keep upside in spot EUR/USD at bay.

    EUR Technical Analysis-eurusd-h4-alpari-international.png


    EUR/USD price action could be stirred further later in the week as traders react to the closely-monitored US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data due for release Friday at 12:30 GMT. Another surprise to the downside following last month’s NFP report will likely echo bullish conviction that appears to have developed since the start of the month. However, an upbeat US jobs report threatens to send EUR/USD swooning with potential to test support at the 1.1300 price level.

    EUR Technical Analysis-eurusd-h4-alpari-international-2.png


    That being said, spot EUR/USD performance over the short-term will likely be driven largely by the market’s expectation for the Federal Reserve to make a move on rates. According to overnight swaps, rate traders are currently pricing a 25-basis point reduction in the central bank’s policy interest rate as a near-certainty with an additional 24.0 percent probability of a 50-basis point reduction in Fed’s benchmark policy rate. Consequently, upbeat US economic data risks reducing the market’s expectation that the Fed will cut rates at its next FOMC meeting and bolstering the greenback in turn.

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  5. #115
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    Weekly Technical Forecast: Dow Ranging and Dollar Bullish Signals

    Gold Price Technical Forecast: Trading Bias to Remain Higher
    Gold pushed higher last week, keeping the trading bias pointed higher; may be some stop-and-go behavior but longs should have a favorable tailwind.

    Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast
    With US stocks teetering around all-time highs, volatility derived from earnings season could see the major markets fluctuate between key areas. Here are the levels to watch.

    EUR Technical Analysis-de30index-d1-fx-choice-limited.png


    Dollar Outlook: USD 2018 Uptrend In Focus on Aussie as Yen Gains?
    The Dollar uptrend from 2018 still holds, near-term price action could be overshadowed by medium-term bullish signals. As USD/JPY eyes support, AUD/USD may reverse on resistance.

    EUR Technical Analysis-dxy-d1-fx-choice-limited-2.png


    Euro Price Chart: EUR/USD Holding Multi-year Trend Support
    Euro has been testing multi-year slope support since April and leaves bears vulnerable while above 1.1186. Here are the levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart.

    Crude Oil Prices Get Hit to Key Support – More Room to Fall?
    Oil bears got back into the driver’s seat this week after supply disruptions from Tropical Storm Barry turned out to be less-than-feared. Can bears continue to drive?

    Australian Dollar: Is This a True Bullish Reversal?
    AUDUSD triggered one of the most recognizable reversal patterns in the technical scales this past week: an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. But is this a spark that can truly catch fire in otherwise difficult markets?

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  6. #116
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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Ranging Near Bullish Reversal

    Prices are now pinned to neckline support-turned-resistance just above the 1.12 mark. A daily close above that faces minor upside barriers at 1.1286 and 1.1348 along the way to a challenge of the June 25 swing top at 1.1412. Alternatively, a move back below 1.1107 paves the way for another probe of the August 1 bottom (and two-year low) at 1.1027.

    EUR Technical Analysis-eurusd-d1-fx-choice-limited.png


    With near-term positioning looking conflicted once again, reviewing the overall trend bias is useful. The monthly chart points to a broadly bearish bias, with resumption of a more than decade-long EUR/USD downtrend making steady (if modest) headway after a break of support near 1.15 in October 2018. A break below the inflection point at 1.0980 could expose a range floor near 1.05.

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