EUR Technical Analysis

Talking Points:

• EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 0.8124 (falling trend line), 0.8096 (channel floor)
• Resistance:0.8153 (channel top), 0.8190-0.8200 (23.6% Fib ret., range floor)

A brief Euro recovery has been overturned, with the British Pound securing its strongest close in 16 months against the single currency. Support lines up 0.8124, marked by a falling trend line set from late January, with a break below that exposing the bottom of a falling channel at 0.8096. Alternatively, a daily close above the channel top at 0.8153 clears the way for a challenge of the 0.8190-0.8200 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a recently broken range floor.

Indecisive positioning argues against taking a trade on either the long or the short side for the time being. We will remain on the sidelines, waiting for a more actionable opportunity to present itself.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Talking Points:

• EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 0.8087 (channel floor), 8056 (100% Fib exp.)
• Resistance:0.8104 (76.4% Fib exp.), 0.8124-33 (trend line, 61.8% Fib exp.)

The Euro renewed its push downward against the British Pound, with prices sinking to the lowest level since January 2013. Support is seen at the bottom of a falling channel set from late April, now at 0.8087, with a break below that exposing the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 0.8056. Alternatively, a move back above the 76.4% level at 0.8104 aims for the 0.8124-33 area, marked by a falling trend line established from January and the 61.8% Fib.

Risk/reward considerations argue against taking a trade at present withprices wedged too closely between near-term up- and down-side technical barriers. We will continue to wait on the sidelines for the time being.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 0.7955 (61.8% Fib exp.), 0.7908 (76.4% Fib exp.)
• Resistance:0.7992 (50% Fib exp.), 0.8030 (38.2% Fib exp.)

The British Pound continues its aggressive attack against the Euro, with prices sinking below the 0.80 figure. Near-term support is marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci expansionat 0.7955, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 76.4% level at 0.7908. Alternatively, a move back above the 50% Fib at 0.8030 clears the way for a challenge of the 38.2% expansion 0.8030.

Current positioning does not offer an actionable trade setup. We will opt to remain on the sidelines for the time being, waiting for a more attractive opportunity to present itself.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 0.7958 (Jun 16 low)
• Resistance:0.0.8023 (14.6% Fib ret.), 0.8062 (23.6% Fib ret.)

The Euro has found tentative support below the 0.80 figure against the British Pound, with a bullish Piercing Line candlestick hinting a rebound is ahead. Resistance is at 0.8023, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a daily close below that targeting the 23.6% level at 0.8062. Near-term support is at 0.7958, the June 16 low.
The ECB looks to be the most dovish of the leading central banks, putting the Euro at an inherent disadvantage against its G10 counterparts. As such, we will opt not pursue buying opportunities, looking to any corrective gains for an opening to enter short as discussed in our weekly outlook.




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 0.7978, 0.7950, 0.7927
• Resistance:0.8023, 0.8062, 0.8081

The Euro may be on track to launch a rebound against the British Pound after prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Initial resistance comes in at 0.8023, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 0.8062. Alternatively, a drop through the 23.6% Fib expansion at 0.7978 targets the June 16 low at 0.7958, followed by the 38.2% level at 0.7950.
The ECB looks to be the most dovish of the leading central banks, putting the Euro at an inherent disadvantage against its G10 counterparts. As such, we will opt not pursue buying opportunities, looking to any corrective gains for an opening to enter short (as discussed in our weekly outlook).



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 0.7929, 0.7864, 0.7812
• Resistance:0.7968, 0.8081, 0.8134

The Euro looks set to renew its declined against the British Pound after a period consolidation around the 0.80 figure. A break of support at 0.7968, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, has exposed the 23.6% level at 0.7929. A daily close below this barrier targets the 38.2% Fib at 0.7864. Alternatively, a reversal back above 0.7968 clears the way for a test of the June 25 high at 0.8033.

While entering short is very tempting from a purely technical perspective, we will tactically opt to stand aside as the ECB rate decision looms ahead. We will continue to stand aside, waiting for event risk to pass before committing to a directional bias.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 0.7937, 0.7920, 0.7872
• Resistance:0.7997, 0.8074, 0.8136

The Euro moved higher against the British Pound as expected after prices produced in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A daily close above resistance at 0.7997, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposes the 38.2% level at 0.8074. Alternatively, a push below trend line support at 0.7937 clears the way for a challenge of the 14.6% Fib expansion at 0.7920.

We are tactically opting not to pursue a long position, choosing not be long the Euro considering the ECB is shaping up to be the most dovish of the major central banks over the coming months. Rather, we will continue to monitor the upswing for opportunities to enter short.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Talking Points:

• EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 0.7973, 0.7954, 0.7935
• Resistance:0.8007, 0.8031, 0.8050

The Euro began edging higher against the British Pound as expected after prices produced in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A pullback now sees prices testing support at 0.7973, the intersection of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line set from July’s low. Breaching this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 0.7954. Alternatively, a turn above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 0.8007 clears the way for a challenge of the 38.2% threshold at 0.8031.

We are tactically opting not to pursue a long position, choosing not be long the Euro considering the ECB is shaping up to be the most dovish of the major central banks over the coming months. Rather, we will continue to monitor the upswing for opportunities to enter short.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Talking Points:

• EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 0.7873, 0.7777, 0.7728
• Resistance: 0.7953, 0.8055, 0.8082

The Euro moved lower against the British Pound as expected after showing a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A daily close below 0.7873-96 area marked by the July 23 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion exposes the 0.7777-0.7803 zone (July 2012 bottom, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib at 0.7953 clears the way for a test of the 0.8030-55 zone (September 9 close, channel top).

Risk/reward considerations argue against entering short with prices in close proximity to support. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bullish reversal signal suggests taking up the long side is premature. We will remain flat for now, waiting for a more actionable opportunity to present itself.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com




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Talking Points:

• EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 0.7873, 0.7777, 0.7728
• Resistance: 0.7953, 0.8051, 0.8082

The Euro moved lower against the British Pound as expected after showing a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A daily close below 0.7873-96 area marked by the July 23 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion exposes the 0.7777-0.7803 zone (July 2012 bottom, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib at 0.7953 clears the way for a test of the 0.8030-51 zone (September 9 close, channel top).
Risk/reward considerations argue against entering short with prices in close proximity to support. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bullish reversal signal suggests taking up the long side is premature. We will remain flat for now, waiting for a more actionable opportunity to present itself.



--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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