NZD Technical Analysis

Daily price is located below 200-day SMA for the primary bullish market comndition. The price is breaking 10-day low level at 1.0650 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

If the price will break 1.0650 support level so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing.
If the price will break 10-day high at 1.0918 to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish condition will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Trend:

• D1 - bearish

W1 price is on ranging to be near and below yearly Central Pivot for 0.6666 support level to be testing for the bearish trend to be continuing.

Instrument	S1 Pivot	Yearly PP	R1 Pivot
NZD/USD	0.5997	0.6943	0.7782

NZD/USD

-FXTW wrote last week that “higher highs and higher lows since August 2015 leaves NZD/USD in an uptrend but be aware of a wall near .71. .7100 is home to a long term median line, 2011 low (.7114) and 1996 high (.7148). The higher highs and higher lows since August are contained by converging trendlines so price action since August 2015 could form a wedge.” High for the post-RBNZ move was .7147. The ‘general area’ of resistance probably extends a bit above .7200.


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H1 price is on ranging within 1.0494 resistance and 1.0447 support level waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started.

If the price breaks 1.0494 resistance to above so the intra-day bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 1.0447 support level so the primary bearish market condition will be started.

A daily close below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6986 opens the door for a challenge of the 61.8% level at 0.6913. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 38.2% Fib at 0.7060 clears the way for a test of the 23.6% retracement at 0.7150.
It seems tempting to enter a short NZD/USD position. The available trading range is too narrow relative to ATR-measured volatility however, arguing against taking the trade on risk/reward grounds. With that in mind, it seems most attractive to remain flat for now until an actionable setup can be identified.

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H4 price is below 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bearish market condition: the price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.0462 resistance level located in the beginning fo the bear market rally to be started, and
• 1.0418 support level located in the primary bearish trend to be resumed.

H4 price is above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bullish market condition: the price is breaking 0.7323 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing with 0.7339 level as a nearest bullish target to re-enter. If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

2016-09-21 21:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

• past data is 2.00%
• forecast data is 2.00%
• actual data is 2.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.
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NZD/USD M5: 59 pips range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event

The New Zealand Dollar suffered the worst two-day loss in over four months against its US counterpart after an upswing topped just above the 0.74 figure. Renewed selling pressure may mark resumption of a trend reversal triggered with a rising trend line break in the second half of September.

From here, a daily close below the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7177 opens the door for a test of the 0.7111-24 area (rising trend line set from January, 61.8% level). Alternatively, a reversal back above the 38.2% Fib at 0.7231 paves the way for a challenge of the 23.6% expansion at 0.7296.


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From here, a daily close below the 0.6952-63 area (100% Fibonacci expansion, June 15 low) opens the door for a test of the 123.6% level at 0.6846. Alternatively, a turn back above support-turned-resistance marked by the October 13 low at 0.7035 paves the way for a challenge of the 61.8% Fib at 0.7124.

The short NZD/USD trade triggered at 0.7095 has hit its initial target at 0.7035 and profit has been taken on half of the position. Remaining exposure has been left open to capture any follow-on weakness. The stop-loss has been adjusted to the breakeven level (0.7095).


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