Something to read

GDP: A Brief But Affectionate History
by Diane Coyle

GDP is one economic model among several that could serve the purpose, but its use conveniently leads to policies that reflect the thinking of a particular school of economic monetary and fiscal policy advocates.

We all know that in operating a business we need to be able to measure the profits of our company and then adjust our prices and production to make sure that there are enough profits to adequately fund the company. That is a relatively straightforward process, since the amount of money in the bank at the end of the month is a real number.

GDP: A Brief But Affectionate History is a fascinating 140-page book that I cannot recommend highly enough. This is simply the best book on GDP that I’ve ever seen. You can read it on a few hours’ plane ride or a lazy Sunday afternoon. And Ms. Coyle actually makes a relatively dry subject interesting and at times a page-turner. She has a true gift.

Ms. Coyle starts with the predecessors to Adam Smith and takes us through the 17th century right up until today with the development of GDP, so we see the ebb and flow of ideas through time. Who knew the early developers of the model did not want to include defense spending, as they saw it as a wasteful, nonproductive activity? Or that Adam Smith thought the inclusion of services in the concept was misleading. “The provision of more services was a cost to the national economy, in his view. A servant was a cost to his employer, and did not create anything. Importantly, money spent on warfare or the interest on government debt was also being used unproductively. The nation’s wealth was its stock of physical assets less the national debt. National income was what derived from the national wealth.”

Will the Real GDP Please Stand Up?

GDP is a huge undertaking, full of rules, with almost as many exceptions to the rules, changes, fixes, and qualifications, so that, as one Amazon reviewer noted, GDP is in reality so complex there are only a handful of people in the world who fully understand it, and that does not include the commentators and politicians who pontificate about it almost daily. The quarterly release of GDP statistics is more akin to a religious service than anything resembling a scientific study. The awe and breathlessness with which the number is discussed is somewhat amusing to those who understand the sausage-making process that goes into producing the number. Whether the GDP reading is positive or negative, it often changes less in a given quarter than the margin of error in the figure itself, and it can be and generally is revised significantly – often many years later when almost no one is paying attention.

GDP Is a Political Construction

GDP has always been a political construction, subject to the ebb and flow of the intellectual and political climate, the need to raise taxes, and the military needs of the day. It is also a tool used to argue for or against income inequality (depending on what country you’re in).

GDP is a financial construct at its heart, a political and philosophical abstraction. It is a necessary part of the management of the country, because, as with any enterprise, if you can’t measure it you can’t determine if what you are doing is productive. That said, the act of measuring GDP precipitates the observer effect writ large.

High Profit Candlestick Patterns : Stephen Bigalow

High profit trading patterns, revealed by utilizing time-honored Japanese candlestick signals. A straight-forward approach to understanding and exploiting market opportunities. Practical applications to predict stock price movements consistently and profitably, a winning system in good times or bad! All detailed in: "High Profit Candlestick Patterns: Turning Investor Sentiment into Profits" By Stephen W. Bigalow

Don’t play the market, Beat the Market! Stephen W. Bigalow’s first book "Profitable Candlestick Trading" taught the novice investor how to quickly identify the best trading opportunities. Now his new book, "High Profit Candlestick Patterns" takes his teaching to the next level. Combining the proven results of Japanese Candlestick charting with effective Western technical analysis, produces even higher profit wealth-building stock selection techniques. Learn the key to profitable stock selection with this safer approach to investing and avoid expensive trading mistakes. Quickly learn the simplest, yet most intelligent, approach to stock selection. Candlestick signals visually produce compelling results. Japanese candlestick charting techniques, integrated with statistically proven Western technical analysis, produces an even more powerful investment platform. The ability to recognize trading patterns in their very early stages empowers an investor with high profit trading strategies.

For the technical investor, the combined analysis provides potent trading programs. The fundamental investor gains tremendous insights into the timing of positions. The introduction of cutting-edge computer generated technical analysis, with the world's most proven trading technique, becomes a powerful tool for understanding the movements of the markets. Discover simple techniques that put the probabilities highly in your favor.

Japanese candlestick signals provide an immense amount of information. They graphically depict what is occurring in investor sentiment. This alone provides a huge advantage for the investor. Having the ability to identify reversals in price trends, utilizing statistically proven and utilized signals, allows an investor to develop high profit trading strategies. The psychological elements not only reveal trend reversals, but they provide the insights for understanding why that reversal is occurring. This becomes a very powerful investment tool.

The graphic illustrations in this book are simple common sense revelations. Utilizing candlestick signals in conjunction with Western technical patterns produces two strong investment elements. First, it allows for the recognition of the optimal times for entering a trade. Second, the candlestick signals revealed immediately when the trend pattern is not performing correctly, allowing for quick exits.

You will receive a whole new perspective for profitably investing in the markets. You do not have to learn formulas nor develop investing talents. The combination of candlestick signals with easy-to-identify trading patterns will vastly expand your investment confidence. The self-mastery of profitable investing is greatly simplified with quick visual evaluations.

The Fallacy of Using SL/TP as Proxy Risk-Reward

Forex trading forums are full of well meaning, yet rather misguided advice about risk-reward setups and how to set your stop losses. Unfortunately, many of these people fail to understand the true meaning of risk or reward.

The idea that simply setting your stop loss smaller than your take profits will achieve a certain risk reward is complete nonsense.

How to Place Stop Losses and Take Profits Using a Maximal Strategy

Trump: The Art of the Deal by Donald J. Trump (Author), Tony Schwartz (Author)



"Trump, who believes that excess can be a virtue, is as American as Manhattan's skyline," wrote George Will in the 1980's. Regardless of whether you think Donald Trump as a symbol of American success, or you think he's an annoying, chest-pounding egomaniac with bad hair, this book will show you what it took for him to build up his empire. The book shows Trump doing what he does best -- boldly making big deals -- during the "greed is good" decade of the 1980's. I found it interesting to see how much of his current empire he had built up before his 40th birthday, and to understand how he pulled off various deals.

The majority of the book is a swashbuckling, detailed history of his biggest projects. He talks about all the details, from negotiating with landholders, arguing about zoning with city officials, lining up contractors, interviewing architects, dealing with partners in various projects, negotiating with banks to line up financing, and the like.

Trump also devotes a couple chapters to his background. He was the son of a successful developer of rent-controlled & low-income housing in Queens and Brooklyn, NY. He was a mischievous, aggressive kid (he once punched a teacher), and was sent military school during his high-school years. He started college at Fordham in the Bronx, NY, to be close to home, but then then transferred to the Wharton Business School (at the University of Pennsylvania) because he liked its entrepreneurial emphasis. Shortly after college, he worked with his father to buy a troubled apartment complex in Cincinnati, which he fixed it up and sold for a multi-million dollar profit. Hungry for bigger things, he moved to a small studio apartment in Manhattan, and progressed from small deals to bigger ones, from renovating a hotel, to building Trump tower, to building and buying casinos in Atlantic city, along with a many other projects.

Besides the stories of his deal-making, Trump gives some tips for aspiring moguls. Although he believes you need a certain innate instinct for negotiating well, he thinks there are some tips everyone can use. For example: when planning deals, one should think big, always have a plan B, keep your options open, and use your advantages as leverage in negotiations. When executing a deal, one must deliver results, control costs, and fight competitors when necessary. Also, promotion of your project is important to get the word out. And finally, of course, Trump says one has to have fun doing all this -- if it's not fun, why do it?

Overall, the book was an OK read, and it moved quickly (I read it in about a day). Some reviewers were put off by Trump's bravado (but give me a break -- it's Donald Trump!! what did you expect?). If you can get past the bluster, you can see what it took to assemble his empire. I was inspired to re-read the book because of the success of Trump's new TV show, "The Apprentice," and I don't regret the day or so it took to re-read -- it's light reading & moves very quickly. If you'd like a quick refresher on Trump's rise, as I did, then this book (and some say the best book) should be on your reading list.

Windows 10 Inside Out 1st Edition by Ed Bott (Author) Carl Siechert (Author) Craig Stinson (Author)



Dive into Windows 10--and really put your Windows expertise to work. Focusing on the most powerful and innovative features of Windows 10, this supremely organized reference packs hundreds of timesaving solutions, tips, and workarounds. From the new Microsoft Edge browser to the personal assistant Cortana, from security to the enhanced Start menu, discover how the experts tackle essential Windows 10 tasks--and challenge yourself to new levels of mastery.

• Install, configure, and personalize Windows 10
• Transition smoothly from Windows 7 or Windows 8.1
• Discover the fast, efficient Microsoft Edge browser
• Use the Cortana personal assistant to handle reminders and information retrieval
• Explore cloud services
• Find, manage, back up, and restore files
• Use the Windows 10 Mail, Calendar, and People apps
• Retrieve, organize, and enjoy digital media
• Harden security and strengthen privacy
• Add Windows Store apps
• Fine-tune performance and troubleshoot crashes
• Share resources and control computers remotely
• Automate tasks and use advanced system management
• Run Hyper-V virtual machines

For Intermediate and Advanced Users

• Your role: Experienced intermediate-level to advanced-level Windows user
• Prerequisites: Basic understanding of Windows procedures, techniques, and navigation

About the Author

Ed Bott is an award-winning author and technology journalist who has written about technology for more than two decades. His 25+ books have been translated into dozens of languages and include at least one volume on every edition of Windows and Office since 1994.

Carl Siechert, coauthor of 20+ books covering products ranging from MS-DOS 3.0 to Windows 10, uses Windows 10 in his business, LittleMachineShop.com.

Craig Stinson, a computer industry journalist since 1981, was editor of Softalk for the IBM PC, one of the earliest IBM PC magazines. His books include Microsoft Excel 2013 Inside Out.

http://http://www.zerohedge.com/news...der-make-money



To those who have followed the rise and fall of the HFT industry, and certainly the far more dramatic rise and fall of one former Goldman trader and programmer, Sergey Aleynikov, the names Misha Malyshev and Teza Technologies are very familiar.

Malyshev founded Teza - named for a river in his native Russia - in 2009. The high-frequency trading group used automated programs to vault to the top ranks of participants on venues such as the CME and BrokerTec, a marketplace for US Treasury bonds once dominated by banks.



Malyshev, who has a doctorate in astrophysics from Princeton, made more than $1 billion for hedge fund Citadel In 2008 while serving as its head of high-frequency trading. Shortly after, Malyshev quit to start Teza, whose profile rose after it hired Sergey Aleynikov, a programmer who was convicted, and later exonerated, for stealing trading software codes from his former employer, Goldman Sachs.

Fast forward to today when the same Malyshev, who became one of the biggest and fastest traders in financial markets, announced he was abandoning his core business after its revenue engine stalled, a sign of the challenge of adapting in markets that unfurl in nanoseconds. As the FT reported, Teza Technologies plans to exit its proprietary trading business in the next six months to focus on building up a quantitative hedge fund that manages more than $1bn, company executives said.

The reason for the dramatic pivot in the business model is that revenues at the company's core, prop trading business, in which historically HFTs have been used to frontrun other orders under the guise of "providing liquidity", and which trades with Teza’s own money, steadily declined from about $250 million four years ago to $80 million in 2015, as increasingly more HFT competition ate into revenues and margins, while HFT-free trading venues like IEX have doomed the high frequency frontrunning business model. In 2016, the business has struggled to make a profit, the people added.

“Generally, it is harder to make money,” Misha Malyshev, Teza chief executive, said in a rare interview.

As the FT, which interviewed Malyshev said, Teza’s situation reflects broader pressures within the industry, where increasing sums are spent on telecoms infrastructure, computer algorithms and exchange fees in order to be an instant faster than others. Chopper Trading, another HFT group, quit the arms race last year when it sold out to competitor DRW.

The Teza payroll expanded from about 45 employees in 2013 to peak at 117 about a year ago. It has dropped to 93, Mr Malyshev said.

Hoping to raise some money before it is too late, Teza in July began approaching investors with potential deals including purchasing equity in the core proprietary business, licensing its technology and becoming a partner in the fund business. It is unclear if anyone has invested in this melting icecube business model, which was a slamdunk in 2009 but is now utterly commoditized.

Meanwhile, the hedge fund, Teza Capital Management, started managing outside money in October 2014 and contained $1.1bn as of February, according to a regulatory filing. “The future of Teza is the asset management business,” Mr Malyshev said. Well, clearly it's not in the frontrunning of retail orderflow business as everyone else also does it now.

The filing warned Teza Capital’s computer models could fall short, including by making “assumptions regarding the existence of relationships that appear to hold true or in fact held true in the past but that may not exist or hold true in the future”.

But one specific thing caught our attention: speaking a day after Donald Trump won his long-shot bid for the US presidency, Mr Malyshev added: “One thing we know is that in financial markets, six-sigma events are happening with the frequency of two-sigma or even one-sigma,” the lower numbers being statistically more likely. So about that market crash that can never happen...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic..._medium=social

The fabled fund, known for its intense secrecy, has produced about $55 billion in profit over the last 28 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, making it about $10 billion more profitable than funds run by billionaires Ray Dalio and George Soros. What’s more, it did so in a shorter time and with fewer assets under management. The fund almost never loses money. Its biggest drawdown in one five-year period was half a percent.

Charting & Technical Analysis : Fred Mcallen



To invest successfully or trade in Stocks, Options, Forex, or even Mutual Funds, it is imperative to know AND understand price and market movements that can only be learned from Technical Analysis. You should NEVER attempt Trading or Investing without it! My 25 years experience has taught me that 'every book on the market' regarding Charting and Technical Analysis is seemingly worthless. All seem to find yet another creative way to tell you to “Buy Low and Sell High.” And they offer NO in-depth understanding or analysis about WHO is buying and WHO is selling, and when. Point is, anyone, experienced or not, can show you a picture of a Chart and tell you to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. That is simple 'hindsight,' and is always 20/20. This book is different! It is IN-DEPTH – EXPLAINED and you WILL learn price movements and technical analysis from this information! You will understand and recognize tops and bottoms in the market and in particular stocks, AS they are forming. This is highly valuable information, and you should NEVER attempt to trade or invest without this knowledge. Mutual Funds? Most people think they do not need this information because the have a Mutual Fund. That could not be farther from the truth. Investing your hard-earned money should be done with your own knowledge of market direction, when to buy, and when to move your money to safety. Without this knowledge you are at the mercy of a salesperson hungry to earn a commission. Thus, invariably entering the market at the wrong time and in the wrong investment. No one else has your best interest in mind. So learn to protect your money or keep it in the bank. It's that simple. The next move is yours.

Red November for Managed Futures - Wisdom Trading

Managed Futures Performance

November average return: -1.03%
2016 average return: -1.71%

Stock Market A To Z: 26 Names, Themes And Trends To Watch In 2017

A is for Apple

"The stock trailed the broader market in 2016, but there may be tailwinds in 2017. Tax reform may include a provision that incentivizes the company to deploy its billions in foreign cash back to shareholders, while some analysts are betting on a big upgrade cycle for the iPhone 8, which has been lacking in recent launches."

B is for Bubble

"It’s not terribly hard to find justifications for high stock prices, but the post-election buying frenzy that’s pushed the Dow back to record territory certainly bears further scrutiny."

C is for Corporate Taxes

"Reform promises have been legion, and if Trump follows through as president there could be major effects. Chief among them: billions of dollars freed up for stock buybacks, M&A and corporate spending if a repatriation tax holiday prompts big tech companies like Apple and Microsoft to bring overseas profits back home."

D is for Dow 20,000

"The 30-stock index cozied up to the nice round number in December, and President-Elect Donald Trump hasn’t been shy about claiming credit. What happens if his much-promised bid to boost business and grow the economy doesn’t deliver immediate results?"

F is for Fannie and Freddie

"Hedge fund investors have been gambling that the government-backed mortgage zombies will be re-privatized for years. Trump’s Treasury pick Steven Mnuchin is their best bet yet for a very happy ending to that story."

G is for Goldman Sachs

"The bank’s stock has been a runaway winner since Election Day, and the Trump White House is practically turning into a hotel for ex-Goldmanites, including Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin, a former partner, and the firm’s recently-departed COO Gary Cohn, tapped to chair the National Economic Council."

H is for Housing

"Prices are peaking again and rates are rising. That may deliver the right concoction to get potential buyers who’ve lacked motivation off the fence and into the market for homes."

I is for Infrastructure

"Early in his acceptance speech on Election Night, Donald Trump pledge to “rebuild our infrastructure” and create jobs in the process. The execution — and how to it will be paid for — remains to be seen, but the stock market took the remarks at face value, with industrial and materials stocks helping pace the year-end rally."

J is for Janet Yellen

"The Fed chair’s time in office may be dwindling, but she’ll have lots to say about markets in 2017. According to the “dot plot” the central bank expects to hike rates three times next year. A heating-up economy might actually make them deliver on that forecast."

K is for King Dollar

"Europe is constantly threatening to unravel and the incoming president is promising trade policies that puts American interests first in all negotiations. Plus, rates are rising. That’s a potent brew for a greenback that could keep getting stronger."

L is for Leaving The Unicorn Nest

"Snap has reportedly filed paperwork to go public and could debut in the first quarter of 2017. Snapchat’s parent company will be a good test for consumer tech companies that enjoy lofty private market valuations. A successful offering might get some of its peers off the fence."

M is for Microsoft

"It took the better part of two decades, but Microsoft’s stock finally took out its dot-com era peak in October. For the year, it outperformed the four FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet ), and also made a splashy deal to buy LinkedIn for $26 billion."

N is for NVIDIA

"The S&P 500’s best-performing stock of 2016 leaped more than 200%. The chipmaker’s leading position in artificial intelligence has Wall Street salivating that even bigger things are in store for the years to come."

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