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AUD/NZD The third quarter of the year saw some interesting shifts in the dynamics between Australia and New Zealand. While the RBA largely tried to stay behind the headlines this year, New Zealand has seen some considerable change over the past couple of months. Jacinda Ardern was elected as Prime Minster of the nation in early-August, and matters haven’t really been the same for the New Zealand Dollar since. Ms. Ardern has already ...
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 29.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.35 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 12.7% lower than yesterday and 23.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.2% lower than yesterday and 15.8% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to ...
A lot of noise was made when EUR/USD broke the ‘neckline’ of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ top, and we were indeed onboard with what was presented to us as a valid confirmation of the three-month pattern. However, last week’s surge pushed the euro well above the ‘neckline’ and the trend-line running down off the September high. The combination of technical breaches significantly decreases the likelihood of the ‘H&S’ pattern still holding any real weight. One could say the formation isn’t fully wrecked ...
The Bank of Japan is committed to “powerful monetary easing” in the oft-spoken words of its Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, until annualized consumer price inflation tops 2%. Well, it’s now at 0.7% and holding so that easing could yet be with us for years. Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve has raised its own interest rates from their post-crisis depths. It’s still expected to do so once again in December and to continue the process in 2018 if the economics permit, albeit gradually. ...
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 58.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.42 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Nov 01 when GBPUSD traded near 1.30522; price has moved 0.7% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 4.5% lower than yesterday and 21.2% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.5% lower than yesterday and 1.9% higher from last week. We typically ...
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